A love letter to Congress...
Politics is the art of the possible: how to win wars & influence nations
Dear Member of Congress,
Forgive me for writing an open letter to you and my other readers. Thank you for reading.
I know… you must please your constituents. So you make promises. Sometimes big promises. Important promises. And you basically keep them! And yet… we’re never satisfied… we always want more. So we voters complain: but our complaints are contradictory! And then some of us say you didn’t really keep your word! Didn’t really do what you said you would. As if… Add to all that the crazies, and some of them are violent... it’s like we voters are never satisfied, let alone grateful.
I understand. You have constraints. Namely, voters. Specifically: elections! So… your foreign policy expertise may be limited. Foreigners aren’t your voters. Knowing foreign languages is not nearly so important as remembering all the people you met in person and represent. You also don’t have time to learn foreign countries’ histories, geography, culture or customs. It’s just not relevant, normally. No one can do it all. So You have priorities.
I have great news! I don’t want your job. Who could blame me? Even better news! I don’t want to help anyone else take your job! So… please… just listen to me for this brief letter.
I’m here to Cover those foreign policy blind spots you may have.
I’m on your side, without regard to party politics or anything other than NATO and NATO partner countries’ defense policies. None Of us is As strong as all of us Together.
But I’ve got a big ask. I don’t want money. It’s not a blood drive. I’m not asking for guns or ammunition. My ask is for something far more powerful, yet inexpensive. Though fragile and precious it costs nothing to give. What could it be?
Want to know my ask?
Trust. I need your trust.
With your trust, I can deliver results you and your constituents will love. That will make your re-election likelier. It will also strengthen the NATO alliance. As a Member of Congress, you probably don’t have time nor need to know all the complex ugly details of how foreign policy works out in theory and practice. Languages, laws, lines on a map, histories, religions… billions of people in dozens of countries. It’s a lot to Cover. That’s what I do for my living. But to do it best I need your trust.
So, please, trust me to surprise and amaze you again, like I did back in Spring ‘22. The results I am delivering are going to bring real durable peace and prosperity now and for posterity. They will help ensure your re-election and the strength and unity of the NATO alliance. But we get there fastest and cheapest in blood and money if you just trust me. I’m a bargain, really.
Together, we are building a bi-partisan powerful foreign policy to encourage cooperation with all who will trade peacefully and isolate and quarantine those few states which believe in lawless violence. That way a brutal desperate violent minority will never again dare terrorize, rob, or murder the vast majority who just want to live in peace and work together for prosperity. That brutal vicious minority of thieves and murderers think they’re night wolves, but they’re really only rats. My strategy and tactics will lead to wealth and longevity for all or nearly all people on earth: it will fulfill certain ideals I’m sure we share.
To get there, I just need one thing: your trust. With it, “wonderful things” will be attained quickly at lowest costs. Without it, my works would be hampered, the results would be less fortunate with greater costs, both human and monetary.
“Fortune favors the brave”: but misfortune disfavors incumbents. I Want You to get re-elected.
Please, just trust me. It’s better that way. With your trust, all else follows. Like free eBooks about law for your legislative aides and interns (below).
Thank you for reading. If you appreciate my mission kindly
So if you’re willing to trust me, like what you see here and where its going, just click that share button to tell your colleagues, friends, family, and constituents. Thank You!
More free law eBooks for your legislative assistants and interns, then polyglot word of the day for diplomats and soldiers, then free news and analysis follows to show “the big picture”.
These eBooks are free on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday only.
U.S. Constitutional Law free on Monday and Tuesday
Free on Monday, Only. U.S. Civil Procedure Law Flash Cards
Free on Monday to Wednesday:
Ever love someone or even something far more than you could ever say aloud?
Word of the day: Flammable and explosive. inflammable et explosif, inflamable y explosivo, entflammbar und explosiv, tuleohtlik ja plahvatusohtlik, запальний та вибухонебезпечний, огнеопасный и взрывоопасный, 易燃易爆炸
Expect more of Russia’s backyard to burn.
News: Russia’s Smash and Grab War Crime
Prigozhin, head of Wagner mercenaries in Ukraine:
“This bifurcation [of society into rich and poor] can end as in 1917 with a revolution, when first the soldiers stand up, and after that their loved ones stand up…. The fatness of the children of the elite will end with people lifting them on pitchforks.” -Prigozhin
Prigozhin knows how to lead men in battle, to fight effectively. He is a priority target to flip. He is the most dangerous threat to Ukraine and also to Putin! So we must win him to our side. Amnesty for Prigozhen if he joins Ukraine’s side. Otherwise? Death. That’s war. Yevgeniy? Putin is far likelier to kill you than me or mine.
Russia-wagner-chief:-war-led by-clowns who-turn-people-into-meat
Chechen-warmongers-threaten-showdown-with-Prigozhin
News: Russian Officials Accuse West of Tacit Support for Moscow Drone Attack.
Wrong again Vlad! My own side might kill me. Survived my first and hopefully last “basement interview”. It’s a dog’s life. Thank you very much for asking! I intend to win. I hope to survive. I promise victory.
You used to be good at this Vlad. Real good. I advised you to retire. You listened! You even lined up a hot brilliant successor, publicly endorsed her, had your succession set. What went wrong Vlad? Oh. You’re a greedy lying murderer, a thief, a thug, a bully. So you clung to power. And now all you built goes down the toilet. Finis!
Macron tells Eastern Europe - we should have listened to you about Russia
Defensive-cyber-warfare-lessons-in-Ukraine
很好的合作!
Taiwan:
The U.S.A. increasingly de facto recognizes Taiwan. China does not want to invade Taiwan. In fact, China would very likely lose an invasion of Taiwan. There is a lot of water between Taiwan and mainland China. Taiwan has few beaches suited for invasions and these are only accessible twice a year for about a month thanks to storms at sea. Parachute and helicopter insertion is no answer: tanks are too big to be air-portable. So is fuel and munitions. The Chinese Communist Party has been preparing for decades to stay in power no matter what. Taiwan, during all that time, has been planning and preparing for invasion. Just like we ought not, and perhaps cannot, destroy the Chinese Communist Party, the Chinese Communist Party cannot and will not successfully invade Taiwan.
To make it 100% clear: the U.S.A. is legally obligated under a U.S. law, the Taiwan Relations Act, to defend Taiwan. It will.
To make the United States’ intent to defend Taiwan against any invasion crystal clear to the People’s Republic of China, these may guide and inspire:
“This earth of majesty, this seat of Mars,
This other Eden, demi-paradise,
This fortress built by Nature for herself
Against infection and the hand of war,
This happy breed of men, this little world,
This precious stone set in the silver sea,
Which serves it in the office of a wall
Or as a moat defensive to a house”
—William Shakespeer 西方的李白
U.S. de facto recognition of Taiwan may lead to de jure recognition. The PRC would scream. But Xi Jinping and the CCP don’t want to wind up like Galtieri, the Argentinian dictator who was ousted from power in Argentina because his invasion of the Falkland islands failed in 1982.
China has cannot successfully invade Taiwan. So why push? We can and will help China reform itself further so that our shared ideals like peace and prosperity become the global reality.
Deterrent defense and political provocation are quite different and ought not be confused. We need a powerful clear deterrent force. Yet, we are better not to provoke. Xi Jinping isn’t Putin: he’s not surrounded by sycophants and liars. China will not miscalculate.
D.C. might.
Don’t believe me? Here’s one of the many examples of American miscalculations. It’s why I am writing. This U.S. miscalculation is only the most recent one. These are also examples why I need your trust. Please just take my word for it about some things. Me, I’m not a blabbermouth… if only others were more circumspect and taciturn. E.g.,
Despite serious past errors, recalibrating is possible. For example,
Mearsheimer Finally Figures Out: Ukraine Will Win.
Correcting Mistaken Ideas: Political Warfare
Clausewitz famously said “war is the continuation of politics by other means.” Too bad Clausewitz was wrong. Friendly Reminder: Germany lost not one but two world wars doing what Clausewitz said. If you want to lose wars do what Clausewitz says.
Basically: Clausewitz believes, wrongly, that war is the continuation of politics by other means. Wrong! War is the failure of politics.
There is a fundamental difference market, political, and military transactions. Market transactions are positive sum win-win: both parties to trade voluntarily transact a mutually beneficial agreement. Political conflicts between contending parties are zero sum: one gains, one loses, in a relative sense, but neither is destroyed in an absolute sense. Military conflicts are negative sum: both parties lose, though one usually loses even more than the other. People and even entire people’s are absolutely destroyed in war. The distinctions between economics, politics, and war are not relative continuous distinctions: they are discontinuous and absolute distinctions. Politics and war are thus fundamentally different.
Good governance seeks to transform war into politics, and politics into economics: to purge domestic and foreign policy alike of vicious behavior by fostering virtue.
Responding to Political Warfare
Geopolitics:
One of my contacts wrote, correctly: “US hegemony in the 21st Century is unshakable. The USA has a superior combination of sound fundamentals in demography, geography, higher education and innovation and of course its military superiority ... A resort to soft or hard suppression in China may not be effective because that leads to an exodus of talent and capital. Both are necessary to keep the economy of China growing. And guess who directly reaps the benefit of such exodus? The USA!”
This is true.
Here is my response:
I expect the current Chinese government to be aggressive rather than cooperative. I also expect the USA to over-react. This "hysteresis" of mutually compounding rigidity fueling over-reaction resulting in more rigidity is what I'm trying to dampen. The USA or its leaders figure the Chinese rigidity will eventually crack in yet another color revolution. But rather than create stable democracies “color revolutions” have tended to create violent anarchy, lost production, and much bloodshed. Even if the USA could oust the Chinese Communist Party the result would almost certainly be yet another Chinese civil war with millions of dead and possible nuclear release by one or more rebelling factions. Most importantly, China has made incredible progress in the last 30 years. Why should we throw that way? Why would they throw it away? Their newly found wealth not only constrains them to rational policies it also enables further reform and greater prosperity for all. China isn’t Russia, let alone Iran.
One of my Chinese contacts expressed concern about getting a visa.
Passports & Visas
It is venal of me to say, but it will teach you a new word. Venal means hateful, vile: the reason Chinese passports are not so well honoured as either of us would like is because of Chinese intelligence cooperation with Russia, North Korea, and possibly Iran.
However, here is the hopeful bit: China hasn't had a war since ... 1979. China hasn't been sponsoring terrorism since ... 1990. Your government should simply throw your intelligence "partners" under the bus. Pick better friends. Friends where lots of overseas Chinese live. Hi!
I hope this doesn't sadden, anger, or upset you, or get you in any trouble. You're simply a [redacted] who wants to help people.
POWER, INFLUENCE, AND IDEALS: CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY
China is no more or less committed to its ideological ideals than the USA is to its ideals. China, like the USA, wants to build the rule of law and to fight against corruption.
When China says they plan to develop the entire impoverished world into common global prosperity they actually mean it.
China also takes soft power influence at least as seriously as hard power force.
Nous sommes tous fiers d’Erika.
Spanish: “Pacific resolution of disputes is a good strategy for China.” Beijing Review, one of China’s major State media.
All this shows, soft power is more important to Chinese doctrine than hard power. For a great power that wishes to avoid bloodshed and destruction influence (soft power) is more important than hard power military instruments.
However, hard power analysis is also important to China, as seen below:
What-are-german-fighter-pilots-doing-in-China?
These two links illustrate Chinese doctrine of “unity in conflict”
Chinese-Defense-minister-li-tells-foreign-militaries-mind-your-own-business
Chinas-defense-minister-says-war-us-would-unbearable-disaster
Chinese language video about Turkiye’s Anadolou unmanned-aircraft carrier:
Vlad? Give up. I know the Chinese. You don’t. No matter what I do, the Chinese will at worst (from my perspective) just stand back, and say “what a pity” as Russians finish the genocide of slavs Hitler started, only this time it’s murder-suicide.
China doesn’t want to see the slavs murdered off. That’s the other side. But China knows it can’t stop your murder-suicide killing spree. China will take the deal. At which point your worst case becomes my reality and you can Kiss Vladivostok 拜拜。
Just resign Vlad. Maybe flee to Beijing. It’s your only chance to survive the hell on earth you started and maybe save the Russian Federation and slavs from your deadly, stupid, lies.
Thank you for reading. If you appreciate my mission just click the share button to tell colleagues, friends, and family:
You want me maniac, and meanwhile accessible 盼我疯魔 还盼我孑孓不独活 Want me reserved, and yet easy and social 想我冷艳 还想我轻佻又下贱 Want me sunny and also single as usual 要我阳光 还要我风情不摇晃 Mock I’m sensitive, sometimes unemotional 戏我哭笑无主 还戏我心如枯木 You give me a dream and wake me up with a sting 赐我梦境 还赐我很快就清醒 Idle with me, wasting our time doing nothing 与我沉睡 还与我蹉跎无慈悲 Expect purity from me and love my milky wings 爱我纯粹 还爱我赤裸不糜颓 Watch my woeful solo and enjoy when I am burning 看我自弹自唱 还看我痛心断肠 You want a fairy, beautiful and a bit lazy 愿我如烟 还愿我曼丽又懒倦 Say I'm crazy and yet adore my courtesy 看我痴狂 还看我风趣又端庄 Hope I’m sexy, and better with some cruelty 要我美艳 还要我杀人不眨眼 Wish me happy from now and curse me rotten secretly 祝我从此幸福 还祝我枯萎不渡 The day you wooed, you could barely keep calm 为我撩人 还为我双眸失神 You ask for my faith and flatter my dark eyes' charm 图我情真 还图我眼波销魂 Elope with me and swear to hold me in arms 与我私奔 还与我做不二臣 You never stint your praises, and offer ample harm 夸我含苞待放 还夸我欲盖弥彰 You give me a dream and wake me up with a sting 赐我梦境 还赐我很快就清醒 Idle with me, wasting our time doing nothing 与我沉睡 还与我蹉跎无慈悲 Expect purity from me and love my milky wings 爱我纯粹 还爱我赤裸不糜颓 Watch my woeful solo and enjoy when I am burning 看我自弹自唱 还看我痛心断肠 The day you wooed, you could barely keep calm 为我撩人 还为我双眸失神 You ask for my faith and flatter my dark eyes' charm 图我情真 还图我眼波销魂 Elope with me and swear to hold me in arms 与我私奔 还与我做不二臣 You never stint your praises, and offer ample harm 夸我含苞待放 还夸我欲盖弥彰 You plead for my love and ask for warming odor 请我迷人 还请我艳情透渗 Show your vigor, and act like you are smothered 似我盛放 还似我缺氧乖张 Let my beauty be and the fragrance linger 由我美丽 还由我贪恋着迷 You dislike my being carefree and moaning with tears 怨我百岁无忧 还怨我徒有泪
Shangri-LA-dialogue-security-meeting-Singapore-spy-chiefs
Bonus word of the day:
TRUST, confiance, confianza, Vertrauen, usaldus, довіра, доверие, 信.