An Opportunity for New Strategic Partnership: The Ukraine Crisis

How China Can Help Reshape the Global Order

Not sorry. Hunger and poverty just make me meaner. Monkey.

(btw the Chinese only (literally) says “*please concentrate attention.*
wild born trap explosive monkey comes forth into view.
in no way feed”.
Still. Don’t fight him. Even if you fight you can’t win.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/explosions-rock-moscow-in-brazen-drone-attack

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Key Points for China to Consider 重要特点对于中国外国政策

• Russia's weakness has been exposed, making it a declining partner for China.

• China has a chance to play a decisive role in ending the conflict and positioning itself as a responsible global leader.

• The US and Europe are looking for new strategic partners and would welcome cooperation with China if China takes a balanced, diplomatic stance.

• Growing economic ties and cooperation between China and the West would benefit China far more than its limited partnership with Russia.

Word of the Day:

codes et chiffres, códigos y cifrados, Codes und Chiffren, koodid ja krüpte, коди і шифри, коды и шифры, 代码和密码

Example Sentence:
Nous brisons des codes et des chiffres pour sauver des vies humaines.
Rompenos códigos y cifras para salvar vidas humanas.
Wir brechen Codes und Chiffren, um menschliche Leben zu retten.
Me murrame koode ja krüpte, et päästa inimelusid.
Ми ламаємо коди та шифри, щоб врятувати людські життя.
Мы взламываем коды и шифры, чтобы спасать человеческие жизни.
我们破解代码和密码来拯救人类的生命。
We break codes and ciphers to save human lives.

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Vindication.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/23/opinion/china-russia-us-cold-war.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-regret-reliance-on-russia-china-partnership-cold-war-historian-2023-7

^Official Chinese Media…

I don’t usually point out Falun Gong materials. However,

Although the cultists seem to agree with my prediction I think they reached that conclusion independently of me, since I’m not at all into religious cults.

Those things I predict? They tend to come true.

This is partly because I am cautious. I have made no predictions about the USA-China race to Mars, for example, and you are already in a new space race, whether you know it or not. Hey! Team USA could actually lose that race!

My predictions also tend to come true because I read all I can and learn as many relevant languages as possible: this enables me to discover and then verify or refute others' insights more rapidly, and also gives me plenty of material to integrate into my own, hopefully correct, predictions.

China Will Stab Russia in the Back: But at What Price?

My question isn't whether China will stab Russia in the back. My question is: at what price? Beijing is a hard bargainer. What will we give China, and what will China demand? This is part of the range of B-C-D I talked about earlier, where you may obtain some combination (all, some, or none). A and E are not possible for either side respectively. It's kinda like winning the Triple Crown . . .

https://www.newsweek.com/moscow-drone-attack-russia-1814768

Decapitate the Enemy Command Structure

Russian Colonel wants to fly like a bird. Gets his wish, sort of.

Moscow’s Body Count: Russia’s Covert Blood Purge Continues

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-businessman-moscow-putin-dead-cherepennikov-1814678

https://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/world/russia/mokroye-delo.htm

https://www.breakinglatest.news/world/the-arrest-of-the-patriot-igor-strelkov-girkin-unleashes-the-fears-of-loyalists-close-to-putin-after-prigozhin-nothing-will-be-the-same-as-before/

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-elites-killed-alternative-medicine-russia-ukraine-war-1814945

Russia will have A New Revolution. When?

https://radaronline.com/p/coup-fears-russian-leaders-oust-vladimir-putin-power-ukraine-war/

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1796535/russian-colonel-describes-scene-chaos-slaughter-army

Whenever a dictatorship loses the loyalty of its secret service(s) it is doomed to coup, revolution, or civil war (in that order of likelihood, sort by blood, ascending). GRU no longer supports Putin. SRV silent. That just leaves FSB which likely still supports Putin. ...For Now.

These are the 3 letter institutions which must be targeted to defect (preferable) or destroy.

France is a Global Power.

France, often poor bloody and beaten but proud and defiant, is a global power. The contribution of the French democracy to human progress and the power of the French State ought not be underestimated. A global network of bases, including pre-positioned supplies, several strong alliance networks, UN Veto, nuclear missiles including submarine launched, Ariane Space etc.

France is that friend who quietly tells you the truth, even when it's ugly, even when you don't want to believe it. France is also that country which consistently stands for human freedom, human rights, a better world.

« La dictature c’est “ferme ta gueule” ; la démocratie c’est “cause toujours” » – Coluche

France is also an example of the fact that ideology, ideas, perhaps surprisingly, are a key driver of international relations. This is why developing and resolving the contradictions between U.S. and Chinese ideologies are vital to preventing conflicts between them. It is the common cause of the democracies which explains the fact, despite economic competition or cultural incomprehension they in the end stand together.

UNsurprisingly, France wants trade and investment in China and good alliance relations with the USA. I don't think that's impossible, but I do think it will demand diplomacy.

Famine in China?

I do not anticipate famine in China.

Partly because China does store up food for national emergencies.

Partly because the USA will not stop selling food to China.

Partly because even without Ukrainian grain there is plenty of food on the global market.

However, I nonetheless expect the CCP leadership to gravely fear famine, due to historic experiences. It is very easy for China to project the USA into the role of tyrant, willing to starve the common people for political advantage. They have experienced such behavior in the past from Russia and especially from Japan; they might themselves imagine doing such to some recalcitrant wild dangerous enemy.

"Peter Zeihan is wrong: Here's Why"

ukrainians-are-breaking-their-ties-with-russian-language

Qin Gang, Former Chinese Foreign Minister

Qin Gang had a mistress, which is perhaps understandable but certainly morally questionable, allows one to ask about his judgement. He had a child with her, which might be a good or at least tolerable thing, were he to have acted as a good parent. Apparently he did not. It seems his mistress was blabby and yappy about having had a child out of wedlock with him. She has been recalled from her luxury posting as a "journalist". He has not been stripped of his role as State Councillor. I am confident he will do self-criticism, and take up cultural work regarding single parents, children. As I recall he was one of the wolf warriors, so he is also being "put in reserve". he is not being party purged. Plenty of murricans imagine he or she will be "disappeared". That doesn't happen anymore, not since at least 40 years. She (Gang’s mistress) will likely enjoy a less lavish lifestyle. As for Gang will have to do a great deal of work to earn his way back up the ladder. He has probably maxed out his career, unless of course US-China relations get very very bad again.

He is fine, not ill, so is she. No harm will come to either. They may get house arrest while their supporters are questioned to make sure there's no underlying financial or blood corruption. I expect there is not.

His judgement is more in question than his morality, though being a questionable parent is possibly more serious than being unable to control his yappy blabby mistress. He is not  accused of crime, just of bad judgment. Political remedies for political problems.

It's about the same as when Trump got rid of Tillerson. It's to be expected the chief executive wants an absolutely reliable foreign minister.

Though I do think Dr. Kissinger is perfectly positioned to say America is a "No Famine, No Matter What Friend of China". That would be a fantastic coda. I do think we can win them.

Ukrainian and Russian casualty reports, Singapore submarine on station, reporting battle ready, Qin Gang dismissed due to infidelity, siring extra-marital child, and being unable to control his mistress.

Hiding in Plain Sight

ONE TIME. YES 933

933=ICC. International criminal court. Guess who that refers to?

悦酷锐 lit. happy, bitter, sharp. i.e. happy, cool (sound alike loan word), keen (exactly that). Kid’s self descriptions.

西兰花broccoli[this was a food the elder President Bush detested) 兰lan (orchid). 花木兰, Chinese war heroine？

红头巾lit. Red Head Scarf; i.e. those who wear red head-dress. (namely, Samsui Women: Singapore's women construction workers, mainly from Sanshui China) 头tou (head)

防晒油 put sunned oil i.e. to put on sunscreen. 晒shai to dry out in the (sun).

树懒shulan sloth (the animal, not the adjective). 懒lan lazy

鸡冠花 lit. chicken crown flower i.e. the comb of a cock. 冠guan crown

红地毯 red earth carpet i.e. red carpet as in the red carpet treatment.地 earth

Orchid, Head, Drying, Lazy, Crown, Earth

兰头晒懒冠地 Orchid head drying in the sun in the crown field. Probably referring to Ukrainian and Russian casualties of war.

芥兰头 orchid head of cabbage: Mao famously said heads are not like cabbages. 天冠地屦 Crown of heaven i.e. to be very far away, ideal, out of reach, may also be contrasted against one's actual debased circumstances.

西兰花

红头巾

防晒油

树懒

鸡冠花

红地毯

沉着应战 as idiom it means composed but literally means: submerged responding war. whether it is a reference to covert combat, deep battle, or submariners is a who's askin' kinda day.

骨髓 bone marrow

鬼迷心窍 being misled to the point of irrationality. gaslighting. Probably referring to Russian foreign policy.

关卡 guanqia checkpoint. Checkpoints often happen on routes to the front lines of war.

噱头 xuetou gimmick e.g. a drone is a gimmick.

情不自禁 qing bu zi jin literally love not self prohibit i.e. one in love forbids nothing. this is a reference to the just ousted Chinese foreign minster Gang Qin.

沉着应战

骨髓

鬼迷心窍 lit. ghost lost heart orifice =A spy, disheartened, seeking entry anywhere…

关卡 checkpoint i.e. defensive post.

噱头

情不自禁

漫天过还 all over the world

四海为家 Singapore submarine on patrol.

家喻户晓 family like the doors of the streaming sun at down = coordinating with Japanese navy.

破晓

天涯 other end of the earth

隐瞒 to hide the truth from others

黄大然几乎

焕然大户

恍然大悟 = 突然明白一件事情 = sudden enlightenment

失魂落魄 = lose the ghost falling spirit= to lose one's wits

手榴弹 hand grenade.

秦始皇 the (first) Qin Dynasty Emperor (Qin is why we call it China)

同归于尽 to die together