ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND SIMULATING WAR FOR TRAINING
AI can help wargaming and other military training tools.
News & Commentary
The German (foreign) intelligence service (Bundesnachrichtendienst, BND) is recruiting.
https://www.bnd.bund.de/SiteGlobals/Forms/Suche/Karrieresuche_Formular.html
This is likely due to people being put into early retirement or shunted into new posts in the federal civil service due to the Russian services success at listening in on German conversations, whether due to traitors (likelier) or electronic sources (very unlikely).
I have given you a strategy for victory in Ukraine: deep strikes to ruin the Russian oil and aircraft industries, targeting Russian command structure including political leaders, fostering purges, putsch, coup, protests, and rebellions in Russia. Simple. Horrible. Necessary. There is no alternative. I have also shown you that strategy is being implemented.
That line. You keep mentioning that line. You say it is red. Yet I do not see it!
“Sign on the dotted line, Sir.”
Wrecking the Russian economy. Sanctions work.
https://www.newsweek.com/nato-ally-sixty-thousand-soldiers-ukraine-general-france-macron-1881216
What was I saying about “Ukraine setting traps for Russians”? https://www.merkur.de/politik/lieferungen-asow-video-russland-leopard-panzer-verluste-ukraine-krieg-waffen-92901727.html
Putin wants to start a new war anywhere, “let’s you and him fight” style. To distract from his failed invasion and draw resources away from Ukraine. https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/dramatische-warnung-aus-den-usa-putin-will-neue-front-in-europa-eroeffnen-87587254.bild.html
There are absolutely things or more exactly me and mine are willing to do -- how’s that nice new mercedes you got at a price to die for? I hear business is booming! Things the USA would not do or would not wish to be implicated in other words I know which non-state actors and which state actors may be pushed pulled coaxed and cajoled into attaining a sustainable war effort leading to victory and a sustainable durable peace. Putin’s mad mafia model of corruption as governance will die the death of a thousand cuts. Just like this:
My favorite was Mr. Hoverbird, three strikes in a row! I am that bird. Putin is that poisonous snake.
Remember to like subscribe and share to support the war effort. That’s why OSINTBRIEF is free. Free as in Free Ukraine or You are next!
WARGAMING
I will keep giving you strike updates, sometimes daily. However, for tactical reasons, it is now important to start training and teaching tactics and one tool for them is wargaming. Hopefully you like math. If not, hopefully you hate war and defeat in war even more than you hate math.
“All is number” Pythagoras (The Python of the Field!)
The following is a first draft of a work in progress. Feel free to
WHAT IS WARGAMING?
Wargaming is a simulation where participants simulate war scenarios. Wargames can be tabletop board games, computer simulations, or live action exercises. Their purpose is to analyze military tactics, test strategies, and explore potential outcomes of conflicts without actual combat. Wargaming is used by military professionals, hobbyists, and researchers to enhance decision-making, train personnel, and understand historical battles.
Wargames can be based on historical conflicts, such as World War II or the Napoleonic Wars, or they can be set in fictional worlds with fantastical armies and weapons. They can also vary in scale, from small-scale skirmishes between a handful of units to large-scale battles involving hundreds of figures.
WHY WARGAME?
You play like you practice. Training prior to combat is the most important thing in war because untrained troops never learn, they die. In war you have no time to think, it’s all reactions. No training means no reaction or wrong reaction, even panic, and the penalty for all that is death: yours. Training means right reaction so maybe survive. This is why wargaming matters.
Wargaming can be a part of training even at the squad level. Soldiers who know why they are doing what they are doing are likelier to do it better and to do it even if their commander dies or is otherwise unable to communicate with them. The most important leadership skill the Ukrainian army must teach is individual initiative for small unit commanders immediately followed by tactical training: don’t bunch up, always at least two meters between each soldier, for example. How to shoot, how to use one unit as a fire element and the other as movement, and then how to swap out so that a unit can leapfrog, as well as basic squad formations (wedge, line, column) and drills (what to do when hit by a sniper, by artillery, how to cross a road, how to recognize and avoid ambush points). Suppose your entire chain of command gets killed? Then what? That is why small unit leaders need to be trusted and allowed to take initiative. Orders should be clear about the goal but flexible about the means.
Militaries use wargames for several reasons:
1. Training: Wargaming is an effective means of training military personnel in tactical, operational, and strategic decision-making. It allows us to train in a safe environment, which enhances understanding the why of live action training and combat operations.
2. Planning: Wargaming helps military leaders test plans. By simulating different scenarios, they find strengths and weaknesses. This helps adjust plans before using them.
3. Decision Making: Wargaming helps leaders explore options. They see consequences. This helps them make better decisions in tough situations.
4. Risk Assessment: Wargaming lets militaries check risks and find vulnerabilities. Then, make plans to prevent problems and solve them if they happen.
5. Innovation: Wargaming lets militaries try new things, test tactics, techniques, and technologies. This helps to improve them before using them in combat.
Wargaming enhances unit readiness, effectiveness, and adaptability.
Benefits of Wargaming
1. Improved decision-making: Wargaming tests and trains leaders decision-making in a controlled environment, helping leaders develop better strategies and tactics. Leaders learn to make better plans and how to react to the unexpected.
2. Enhanced situational awareness: Wargaming helps military personnel develop a wider and deeper understanding of battles and wars forcing them to remember and plan for logistics, casevac, and weather, for examples of things which are vital yet often glossed over by inexperienced would-be leaders.
3. Increased readiness: Regular wargaming exercises help to maintain and improve military readiness by ensuring personnel are familiar with their roles and responsibilities, and can respond quickly and effectively to different scenarios. Wargaming keeps soldiers sharp: they know their jobs well and can quickly comprehend and react appropriately to different situations.
4. Better communication: Wargaming improves communication and coordination, making teams work together better. Improved communication leads to better results in battle.
5. Cost savings: Wargaming costs less than real field training exercises, which can be dangerous and are expensive. Wargaming reduces the risk of casualties and damage to equipment saving money. It also keeps soldiers safe and gear intact.
6. Flexibility: Wargaming can be tailored to specific scenarios and objectives, allowing military planners to test and prepare for a wide range of situations and adapt accordingly. Planners can try different scenarios and adjust.
7. Realism: Effective wargaming creates lifelike situations, interactively portraying complex battles with various players and factors. Wargaming can simulate complex dynamic environments that would be difficult or impossible to replicate in real life, such as battles involving multiple branches of the military, civilians, and/or armed combatants such as terrorists, insurgents, pirates. Good training mirrors the challenges of war, whether mental or physical. So, effective wargaming is also realistic: Good training is realistic. War is hardship, so good training is hard training, whether its brain or body being trained, preferably both.
8. Tech Training: Wargaming helps soldiers learn new gadgets. They get the hang of drones, cyber gear, and fancy communication systems.
9. Strategic thinking: Wargaming helps leaders learn to see the big picture to think forward aggressively, planning ahead to seize retain and exploit the initiative instead of just reacting. Wargaming teaches tactics and strategy. Tactics implement strategy. Both are important.
10. Teamwork with allies: Teamwork: Wargaming brings allies together to train and work well. Training together exposes better tactics and any weakness, which allies then correct. Different countries train as one, making alliances stronger.
There is surprisingly little AI work being publicly done on wargaming. I shall change that as it is part of the war effort. This issue will be technical. If you are more interested in grand ideas and information my entire substack is free, so just use the search box and whichever search terms you prefer. Likewise my books have 20% or more free preview https://amazon.com/author/quizmaster
Utility: AI can improve game preparation and implementation, supporting player decision-making, and improving insights gained through wargames. It can reduce personnel requirements, speed up game development, enhance player immersion, accelerate play, and most importantly identify innovative strategies and tactics.
MATHEMATICAL REPRESENTATION OF COMBAT POWER
FACTORS OF COMBAT POWER
In war these variables condition victory: training, morale, fatigue (i.e. sleep), health, exhaustion (i.e. muscular), leadership, equipment, supply. Most hobby wargames completely ignore training, morale, fatigue, supply entirely. If they model these vital aspects of war at all they do so superficially and simplistically. Example Hobby Wargames: Afrika Korps did have supply trains. But D-Day did not. Arab Israeli Wars did model morale, lumping motivation together with training. So does Squad Leader. Both are however not very good models of small unit tactics. Predecessor games to Arab Israeli Wars, namely Panzerleader and Panzerblitz did not model morale at all. None of these games model weather. Blitzkrieg does, so does Russian campaign. Yet most hobby war games give each side perfect intelligence, which is never the case in real wars. A good exception is step reduction semi blind systems like that used in the game Quebec: 1759. Most hobby table top wargames fail to model the less obvious but vital aspects of war: weather, training, morale, logistics. Here is an exposition of combat factors which wargame designers and warriors must consider. AI and wargaming can help model and train on all of them.
COMBAT FACTORS
Training: content, methods, and effectiveness of training programs. AI and wargaming can help us evaluate soldiers’ perceptions of their physical and combat task training, assess techniques and skills being taught, analyze training manuals or documents to identify key principles and objectives.
Morale: attitudes, motivations, and feelings toward the mission, leadership, and their fellow soldiers: interactions and behaviors within military units.
Fatigue (Sleep): Qualitative analysis of fatigue can involve interviewing soldiers about their sleep patterns, experiences of fatigue, and strategies for managing sleep deprivation during deployment.
Health: physical and mental health status, experiences of injury or illness, and access to healthcare services; medical facilities and procedures, quality and effectiveness of healthcare provision.
Exhaustion (Muscular): endurance (how long), strength (how hard), and fatigue levels (recovery time after total exhaustion).
Leadership: Qualitative analysis of leadership can involve observing leaders' behaviors and decision-making processes, conducting interviews with subordinates about their perceptions of leadership effectiveness, and analyzing leadership narratives or stories within military units.
Equipment: quality, reliability, and usability of their equipment: maintenance procedures and repair activities, performance and durability.
Supply: logistical support, access to food, water, ammunition, and other essential supplies. Repair facilities. Supply chain operations and distribution networks as well as their vulnerabilities.
Quantifiable Variables:
Training, Health, Equipment, Supply: These variables often have measurable indicators such as training hours, medical statistics (casualty rates, injury rates), equipment functionality (availability, reliability), and supply chain metrics (timeliness, quantity). Analyze historical data, statistics, and performance metrics to quantify the impact of these variables on military effectiveness. Regression analysis, correlation studies, and comparative assessments can help determine their importance to victory.
Qualitative Variables:
Morale, Fatigue, Exhaustion, Leadership: These variables involve subjective experiences, perceptions, and interpersonal dynamics that are not easily quantified. Here's how you can analyze them qualitatively:
Morale: Conduct interviews, surveys, or focus groups with soldiers to explore their attitudes, motivations, and emotional states. Qualitative analysis can reveal the impact of morale on unit cohesion, resilience, and combat effectiveness. Themes such as camaraderie, sense of purpose, and trust in leadership can emerge from qualitative data.
Fatigue, Exhaustion: Use qualitative methods such as interviews, observations, and participant observation to understand soldiers' experiences of physical and mental fatigue. Explore their coping mechanisms, perceptions of fatigue management strategies, and the impact of exhaustion on performance and decision-making.
Leadership: Qualitatively analyze leadership styles, behaviors, and effectiveness through interviews with leaders and subordinates, observations of leadership interactions, and document analysis of leadership doctrines and narratives. Focus on themes such as communication, decision-making, mentorship, and adaptability to assess the importance of leadership to victory.
Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis:
Combine quantitative data (e.g., casualty rates, mission success rates) with qualitative insights (e.g., soldiers' narratives, leadership anecdotes) to develop a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between variables and victory. Triangulation of data from multiple sources enhances the validity and reliability of your analysis.
Identify patterns, correlations, and causal relationships between variables through mixed-methods approaches. For example, quantitative analysis may reveal a correlation between equipment reliability and mission success rates, while qualitative analysis may uncover how leadership practices influence morale and unit cohesion.
Use qualitative data to contextualize and interpret quantitative findings. Qualitative insights provide depth, nuance, and explanatory power to quantitative results, helping you understand the underlying mechanisms and contextual factors shaping military effectiveness.
Ranking Combat Factors Relative Importance
“War is algebra, artillery is trigonometry.” Eric Engle.
Ranking the importance of each factor to attaining victory in battle is complex. The significance of each factor variesdepending on the specific context, terrain, objectives, and adversaries involved. „It’s MET-T DEPENDENT SIR”:
Leadership: Effective leadership is often considered the most critical factor in achieving victory in battle. A strong and capable leader can inspire, motivate, and guide troops to overcome challenges and capitalize on opportunities. Great leaders inspire by example. All effective leadership is by example. Force, fear, and fraud are ineffective leadership principles. Leaders must be brave, competent, and frank, honest: soldiers deserve the truth and will die for their leaders only if the leader shows by his own example he is willing to die for his or her men.
For example, the leadership of Alexander the Great played a pivotal role in the success of his Macedonian army in numerous battles, including the Battle of Gaugamela, where his strategic acumen and bold maneuvers led to the defeat of the Persian forces despite being outnumbered.
Morale: High morale can significantly enhance a military force's resilience, cohesion, and combat effectiveness. Soldiers with strong morale are more likely to withstand adversity, maintain discipline, and fight tenaciously even in the face of daunting odds. When soldiers believe in their cause they may win even when outnumbered, even with inferior weapons, especially where the enemy’s cause is wrong for an evil cause can only be obtained by fear, force, and fraud, all of which at first undermine and ultimately backfire on the forces of evil. Every battle, ultimately, is a war within for courage, honesty, truth, and justice. Thisis what Sun Tzu meant by moral virtue. The virtuous army is likelier to win against the virtueless mob.
For example, the morale of the British Expeditionary Force during the evacuation of Dunkirk in World War II, buoyed by the famous "Dunkirk spirit," contributed to the successful evacuation despite being surrounded by enemy forces.
Training: Well-trained and disciplined troops are better prepared to execute missions, adapt to changing circumstances, and employ tactics effectively on the battlefield. In battle there is no time or energy to think. One must react and one reacts based on one’s training. Untrained troops cannot learn in battle because their errors kill them. The price for error in war is death.
For example: The disciplined training regimen of the Roman legions, emphasizing cohesion, maneuverability, and discipline, enabled them to achieve numerous victories across a vast empire, including the Battle of Zama against Carthage. An outnumbered but disciplined force can win and defeat a much larger but undisciplined and disorganized opponent. “Can” is not “will”!
Equipment: Good gear helps but equipment alone does not guarantee victory. Having superior weapons, armor, and logistical support can provide a significant advantage on the battlefield: even then an army can lose if badly led, undisciplined, and unmotivated.
For example, technological superiority of the British Royal Navy's ships, particularly during the Age of Sail, allowed them to dominate naval warfare and secure victories such as the Battle of Trafalgar against the combined French and Spanish fleets.
Armies with no training or leadership try to go all in on weapons. But the best of arms in untrained hands which are badly led winds up being war booty captured by the enemy. This is why Ukrainian farmers with tractors could drag Russian tanks to Ukrainian repair works!
Supply: Adequate and reliable logistical support is essential for sustaining military operations, maintaining combat readiness, and sustaining morale. The successful Allied logistics efforts during the Berlin Airlift in 1948-1949, which supplied West Berlin with vital necessities despite Soviet blockade, demonstrated the critical importance of uninterrupted supply lines in achieving strategic objectives.
Ukraine has a real advantage in supply since it is on friendly territory. The home field advantage also helps greatly for intelligence. When Ukrainians need information they can just ask around. Russian invaders cannot.
Health: The physical and mental well-being of soldiers can impact their performance, endurance, and resilience on the battlefield. Proper medical care, sanitation, and preventive measures are crucial for maintaining combat effectiveness and reducing casualties.
For example, the effective management of disease and sanitation by the Union Army's Medical Department during the American Civil War contributed to the overall health and readiness of Union forces. Effective CASEVAC means soldiers survive and may return to the battle with their experiences to fight better than ever. Bad CASEVAC means your wounded are dead and can teach no one the hard lessons which can only be learned in actual combat.
Fatigue: fatigue impairs performance and decision-making. People aren’t robots, we get tired and need sleep. Prolonged fatigue can undermine morale, discipline, and combat effectiveness over time especially if the soldier think their leaders don’t care. Commanders and Soldiers must be mutually supportive: we’re in this together and aim to win. Sharing hardships and dangers of combat with soldiers is the most important thing a combat leader can do because then the soldiers don’t feel used or mistreated.
For example, the exhaustion of Napoleon's Grande Armée during the retreat from Moscow in 1812, plagued by harsh weather, supply shortages, and constant skirmishes, weakened their fighting capability and contributed to their eventual defeat. However, had Napoleon himself not been willing to put himself on the front lines of combat and march, not ride, alongside his soldiers they would have all been annihilated since he would have no idea how bad they had it nor would they have had any desire to defend their emperor or even France.
Exhaustion: Muscular exhaustion or physical fatigue can affect individual soldiers' performance and endurance during prolonged engagements or forced marches. While fatigue management is essential for maintaining combat effectiveness, its direct impact on battle outcomes may be more indirect compared to other factors.
When Hannibal's Carthaginian army crossed the alps with elephants (218 BC) his soldiers endured grueling forced marches. They were physically exhausted yet achieved victories against Roman forces in subsequent battles thanks to surprise: Rome did not expect Carthage to invade Italy at all, let alone with elephants anticipating instead naval landing.
Effective leadership, training, and morale reinforce each other and are force multipliers. They enhance military effectiveness on the battlefield. In contrast, fatigue, exhaustion, and hunger are often positively correlated and reduce combat power.
Creating a mathematical formula to quantify the importance of each factor and their interactions as force multipliers or additive in achieving victory in battle is challenging due to the complexity and subjectivity involved. Here is my best attempt to quantify the rank-ordered factors listed above.
Force Multipliers: are factors or capabilities that amplify the effectiveness of military forces beyond their inherent capabilities. In battle, force multipliers enhance combat power, leading to likelier operational success. Leadership, morale, training, equipment, supply, health, fatigue, and exhaustion—can all act as force multipliers under certain conditions.
Weighting the Factors: Assigning specific weights or percentages to each factor is subjective. Force multipliers as multiply the impact of other quantifiable factors. For example:
Leadership: Effective leadership can amplify the effectiveness of training, morale, and equipment through strategic guidance, decision-making, and motivation.
Morale: High morale can enhance the combat effectiveness of troops, making them better able to cope with and overcome adversity through initiative and more likely to follow commands and do tasks they have been trained to do.
Training: Well-trained troops are better able to use weapons and equipment, they are liklier to follow commands because of habits and past experiences with their leaders, and maintain good morale even under duress.
Equipment: Superior equipment enhances the effectiveness of trained and motivated troops. The combat power of cannons and guns are the factors being multiplied by proper training, leadership, and morale.
Supply: Adequate logistical support ensures troops have the necessary resources to sustain combat operations, maintain morale, and use equipment effectively. This factor is more of a precondition than a force multiplier. No bullets means no fighting no food same thing.
Health: health and well-being of soldiers are crucial for combat effectiveness, morale, and operational readiness.
Fatigue and Exhaustion: combat power of a unit goes down as physical fatigue and sleep deprivation increase. Exhausted “zombies” can fight, but don’t fight as well as fresh fit soldiers, all other things being equal.
Synergies: these factors interact and reinforce each other as force multipliers:
Effective leadership can inspire morale, optimize training, allocate resources efficiently, and mitigate the impact of fatigue and exhaustion.
High morale enhances motivation, whether for training or combat and reinforces unit cohesion, bolstering perseverance even in the face of unforeseen adversity.
Well-trained troops use their gear better, adapt to change well, and execute orders effectively.
Superior equipment can boost confidence, provide tactical advantages, and increase troops' effectiveness when combined with proper training and leadership.
Mathematical Representation:
A mathematical combat formula would be simple linear algebra perhaps something like (weapons+soldiers*supply) * morale * training * leadership. There is a case of an out of supply unit with no ammunition nonetheless fighting and winning. The 20th Maine Rifles at Gettysburg despite exhaustion, numerical inferiority, and no more bullets through superior training and command was able to exploit geography and charged their enemy with bayonets, said enemy unaware that 20th Maine was exhausted, had no more bullets, and was outnumbered. “In war the moral is to the material as three is to one.
Calculating the values for “weapons” is the most quantitative aspect of the above equation. The other factors are largely, not exclusively, qualitative. Most notably, leadership is least quantifiable. People absolutely do follow effective liars and especially follow sincere, earnest, committed leaders who are however in error. Effective leadership must not merely exhort and inspire by example it must also command, at times, and make decisions promptly. How could any of that be quantitatively modeled? Only with difficulty, at best.
Uses of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in wargaming:
1. Opponent Modeling: AI can simulate the behavior of adversaries in wargames. This can result in a realistic and dynamic opponent behavior, which improves training and decision-making.
2. Scenario Generation: AI algorithms can generate diverse and complex scenarios for wargames based on various parameters such as terrain, weather conditions, enemy capabilities, and mission objectives. This helps in creating realistic training environments that challenge military forces to adapt and respond effectively.
3. Decision Support: AI-powered decision support systems can assist military commanders and planners in analyzing vast amounts of data, generating alternative courses of action, and evaluating the potential outcomes of each option. This enables more informed and timely decision-making during wargaming exercises and real-world operations.
4. Adaptive Learning: AI algorithms can adapt and learn from the outcomes of wargaming exercises, improving their performance over time. By analyzing patterns and trends in past simulations, AI systems can identify successful strategies and tactics, as well as areas for improvement, leading to more effective training and planning.
5. Real-time Simulation: e.g., real time first person shootes. AI-powered wargaming platforms can simulate large-scale military operations in real-time, allowing participants to interact with the simulation and make decisions that influence the outcome of the exercise. This provides a dynamic and immersive training experience that closely mirrors actual battlefield conditions. The best regimen is doing wargames at first fully rested for initial learning then doing them while sleep deprived, hungry, wet, cold for reinforcement learning. You should be able to do combat tasks while half asleep, because you very likely will. Learn to sleep anywhere and anytime allowed.
6. Red Teaming: Basically Red Teams take on the role of the adversary and attempt to fight from the adversary's perspective for the adversaries goals to identify weaknesses in our own ("Blue") defenses. I red team all day every day. ama.
AI can serve as "red teams" in wargaming exercises, simulating the actions and strategies of hostile forces. By employing AI-driven red teams, planners can test their own defenses and strategies against sophisticated and adaptive adversaries, helping to identify vulnerabilities and improve overall readiness. Red teams seek to identify weaknesses in ones own force structure and posture.
7. Resource Optimization: AI algorithms can help optimize the allocation and use of military resources during wargaming exercises by analyzing factors such as logistics, manpower, and equipment availability. This ensures that resources are allocated efficiently to support mission objectives and maximize operational effectiveness.
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE WAR GAME INFORMATION
Basically the few works on AI and wargaming are looking at it from
academic
military and
hobby perspectives.
Everything Naval War College does is excellent so start here.
Georgetown Wargaming Society has this
I’m sure Concordia University must be working on this though that does not mean its public
Though LLM AI can be used for training, notably in wargames, as well as in propaganda and informationwarfare it has to present limited or no application in targeting or land navigating. Expert systems are much better suited to targeting decisions, though neural networks may be the better way to coordinate autonomous swarm attacks.
Speaking of training exercises
I wonder why? )
https://cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications/artificial-intelligence-wargaming
https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP68860.html
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/15485129211073126
https://www.csis.org/analysis/it-time-democratize-wargaming-using-generative-ai
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1722-4.html
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