"CHINA, CHINA, CHINA!" -DJ Trump (跟着我念!)
为情生者可以死 死可以生="for love the living might die, death can thus give birth to life"
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ANALYSIS: CHINESE POLITICAL WARFARE & WESTERN LIBERAL INTERNATIONALISM (SINO-INDIAN WAR OF 1962)
In the above video, Lei argues that China’s real goals in war are often different from what Westerners think, which would be to destroy the enemy army, oust the enemy leader(s) and/or seize territory. She claims that China joined the Korean war to gain access to USSR jet and nuclear technology; that China went to war against India in 1962 not to gain territory but instead to shore up Mao’s domestic position as leader, opportunistically taking advantage of the Cuban missile crisis, and ending its intervention abruptly and unfavorably to China (but favorably to Mao!) as a function of that crisis. Finally, Lei argues that China’s goal in its 1979 intervention into Vietnam was to show its loyalty to the USA in order to garner American trust and thereby economic modernization. All of these observations are insightful and at least roughly accurate, perhaps even exact. They are consistent with the Maoist doctrine of “political warfare” which is yet another reprise of Clausewitz failed idea that war is merely the continuation of politics by other means; when in fact war (killing) and the political (negotiating) are antithetical. However, the Chinese doctrine of political war regards peace time negotiation not as the pause between wars, which is how fascists regard peace. Instead, political warfare as a doctrine regards the political as a continuation of war by other means. This is the least dangerous but most challenging variant of Clausewitz’s stupid, wrong, failed idea, an idea which by the way caused two world wars and thereby doomed Germany to being a continental power rather than a global one. German foreign policy was essentially doomed when it moved from cooperation with the British hegemon to competition against it, and it is Clausewitz’s wrong idea about the relation between the political and war which caused that shift. One may compare the post 1815 French and post 1945 German foreign policy with their earlier foreign policies to see the fact cooperation with a dominant hegemon is in fact superior in every sense to competition against one. This is because the proper relationship between the economy, the political, and war is to see war as a dysfunctional anti-productive aberration and then, as liberals and liberalism does, to transform negative sum deadly military engagements into zero sum political interactions, which are not deadly and moreover to transform zero sum political relations into positive sum economic trading relations which is why we have e.g. the EU. Recognizing the proper relationships between war, the political, trade, and investment is part of why the USA became so productive and in fact attained global hegemony. The USA builds strong stable productive alliance networks, which are durable and mutually beneficial by understanding the correct relationships between the economy, politics, and war. Other states which do not recognize these facts doom themselves thereby to sad and impoverished fates of their own making.
Lei herself is a member of a religious group known as “falun da fa” 法轮大法 (also called falun gong), which preaches Confucian values of tolerance, truth, and compassion. Like most cults one could expect that if one were to get inside it there would be the usual “tithing”, more or less amounting to giving most or even all ones income to the cult, “faith healing” and varieties of imaginary friends, indemonstrable supernatural claims. That religious sect is banned in China as the CCP sees it as a threat to governance by a single atheistic party as well as a source of injury to naive, ignorant, ordinary people. Often, but not always, falun gong analyses err, usually due to dualism, philosophical idealism, due to an absent or weak materialist analysis. Moreover, it is evident to me at least that falun dafa is penetrated, at least to some extent, by CCP agents. It’s not a “controlled” opposition, and does as here sometimes have really keen insights. It’s not “reliable” but is, at times, “insightful”. This series of videos is an example where falun gong in fact reaches correct insightful conclusions and thus ought be critically examined.
Karl Rove is a famous effective republican (i.e. ‘right wing’ similar to RPR, CDU) political strategist. Karl Rove recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal (like Figaro or FAZ) that Murricans ought to put-america-first-by-aiding-ukraine
Buried Lede: https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/the-cases-against-donald-trump-are-piling-up
Analysis: Nuclear “Justice”
The above video is basically moot; inapposite. Law precedes justice and isn't equivalent to justice. The international system is still founded on sovereigns, thus their legal relations are "merely" contractual, consensual; but they enforce their contracts (=treaties, they are the same word in some languages notably German) at gunpoint.
The speakers at Belfer appear to be presuming a monist international legal order, when in fact the international system is pluralist. That is the primary difference between the national and international legal orders: One sovereign domestically (a monist domestic order) as opposed to multiple sovereigns internationally (a pluralist international order). In the real world the international order is pluralist, as to sources of rules and their enforcement. Note that the term “monist” is polysemic. For greater detail see my books “Post-Positivism” and “Ideas in Conflict”.
I'm just a technician, but the technicities I examine are enforced. Guess how?
I would have preferred non-proliferation: but would have preferred even more no Russian invasion. People in the above video fantasize about a world which is nuclear armed by all states or instead about a world entirely without nuclear weapons. This is an example of dangerous German idealism. The former world would be worse, with nuclear exchanges among the poorest and worst governed. The latter world is impossible, because States jealously guard their sovereign rights and powers. Basically the video is German liberals whining about a unipolar order, who have yet, and this despite Ukraine, to figure out a multipolar world is far more dangerous and poorer. Germans such as Merkel who imagined increased options in a multipolar world have already proven to be foolish and unrealistic, as well as blithely ignoring German history. Their imagined non-nuclear world is at best naive, at worst disingenuous.
In any case: the Russian Federation … will be de-federated. This ends with Putin dead or in the docket for war crimes, and it is entirely likely that the Russian federation in direct consequence to the Putin regime’s war crimes will be stripped of its security counsel veto and broken up into its constituent republics: this time with a Marshall Fund 2.0
This is what happens to criminal regimes, as history shows.
Russia dreams of blaming China for its stupid failing war:
Russia also dreams of China sending weapons and munitions to Russia.
没门。 DREAM ON LOL.
ANALYSIS: CHINA WILL NOT SUPPORT RUSSIA’S STUPID FAILING RAPE ROBBERY AND MURDER SPREE. HERE’S WHY.
By now you have probably noticed: Chinese are sharp traders, good at sales, they are a mercantile people. This may explain in part Anglo-Chinese relations in Hong Kong. Chinese are, as you may also have noted, intelligent, and often are well-read. They refer to themselves as an optimistic (乐观), cultured (文明), hard-working (勤劳) civilization. As I have earlier noted: Chinese people love, in order, their family, wealth, and their nation. They are not war-like, but are also not cowardly as we may see from The ballad of Mulan. This means we can and should look at China’s role in the Ukraine war from an economic perspective. This is especially true given the Chinese government’s repeated insistence that it is neutral, has no plans to arm either side, and wishes not to get inolved in other countries’ conflicts or the internal affairs of other countries. I wish the United States were so prudent. Chinese neutrality and non-intervention are wise policies: they are low-cost and low-risk.
Let’s quickly compare Chinese values to Russian values. I don’t want to say nation of alcoholics but just did. Then there is that whole kleptocracy problem. And its on top of lies and more lies and thoroug-going corruption. Russia is rife with values which obviously doom it to failure in Ukraine, no mater how violent or foolhardy Russians are, and they are of course, just google “Russian Highway” or “Russian Jumps” or “Russia lol” to stare in rapt horror at the carnage. It’s not exceptions, that’s everyday life in Russia.
It is also evident Russia’s war is failing and flailing.
Chinese people aren’t stupid. Why back a loser?
Insufficient? Ok. And furthermore,
look at it economically. China wants cheap oil: China gets cheap oil from Russia so long as Russia is tied down in a failing war in Ukraine. But China just convinced Saudi Arabia and Iran to make peace with each other. Saudi Arabia and Iran have lots of oil. So China doesn’t really need Russian oil. So China has no economic reason to back Russia. What about trade and investment? Chinese trade and investment with the USA is at least ten times greater than Russo-Chinese trade and investment. China knows if it arms Russia the USA would quickly sanction it, cutting off a great source of markets and capital.
Fear of poverty and desire for riches among a commercially minded nation still not enough?
Ok, let’s look at it culturally. I already mentioned the fact Chinese and Russian cultural values are fairly divergent. But did you know? The USA is the world’s fourth largest Chinese country by population, second by area. I was literally eating Chinese food before you were born. 我吃过的盐比你吃过的饭还多。
The ONLY thing keeping America and China from power coupling planet earth is what, exactly?
Not only will China do nothing to help Russia in Russia’s foolish failing war, China might be convinced to stab Russia in the back. Maybe even frequently. And hard! You see, a lot of what is now Russia … used to be China. Maybe they want it back? Meanwhile, China wants to position itself to get in on lucrative construction contracts in Ukraine, because after Ukraine wins it will inevitably rebuild. There really is no reason, neither ideologically, nor economically, for China to do other than what it has said it will do all along, which is: nothing! 平躺的中国加油!I’m gonna show you lying flat all right…
China’s low risk low cost non-interventionist strategy in the Russo-Ukraine war is wise and will benefit China, at worst in the sense that China has wasted no resources nor made any enemies by simply standing back and doing … nothing! And that will change, why? It will not!
China-Inc.-keen-on-setting-up-shop-in-the-U.S.-despite-tensions
Chinas-diplomacy: a-triumph-of-cost-benefit-analysis/
US-foreign-policy-paralysis-allowed-china-opportunity-pursue-path-superpower-experts
Peace-in ukraine-can-bring-china-and-europe-closer-together
ANALYSIS: GAMBITS AND NOTHING TO LOSE, ZELENSKIY AND XI.
A gambit is a chess move, where one sacrifices a low value piece, usually a pawn, to gain a positional or material advantage. The term gambit originally comes from wrestling, wherein a wrestler would put forward a leg (jambe; gambitarre), open to easy attack. When the opposing wrestler takes the leg, the trap is sprung and the opposing wrestler get flipped and pinned. Zelenskiy recently asked Xi Jinping to meet him. Less well informed people refer to that as a gambit. See: Zelensky-Xi-Jinping-Vladimir-Putin-Ukraine-China-Russia-War. That is not a gambit. It is no gambit for Zelenskiy to ask to meet with Xi because neither have anything to lose. But Zelesnskiy has something to gain, either Chinese cooperation or China’s help in brokering a peace agreement. Of course, China will not commit the 100,000 peace-keepers which would be required to keep peace and enforce a cease fire in Ukraine. Consequently we cannot realistically hope for a Chinese brokered cease-fire/truce/peace accord or anything other than hopeful unrealistic hot air. However,
China knows Ukraine will win, and thus that China would gain little by supporting Russia, but would lose much.
So Zelenskiy might be able to get Xi to promise what China has already made clear, that China will not arm Russia. Zelenskiy has nothing to lose, but something to gain, so it is not a gambit.
More News:
Nations-in Indo-Pacific-want-trade-not-war
Guns for Butter? Russia-seeks-arms-food-deal-with North-Korea
Taiwans former head of state Ma-Ying-Jeou-referencing-yan-huang-descendants
Take it serious: they literally venerate aka worship their ancestors.
Meanwhile in RuSSia..
https://www.economist.com/china/2023/03/30/
many-wealthy-people-are-considering-leaving-china
Work on English listening comprehension with The Economist China Podcasts (apparently not paywalled!)
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-ukraine-war-lumbering-agile
https://mwi.usma.edu/what-is-russias-theory-of-victory-in-ukraine/
two-ukrainian-brigades-equipped-bradley…
those-old-t-55-tanks-russia-is-pulling-out-of-storage-theyre-going-to-wrecked-in-night-fighting/
Here’s a start on the translation, I hope it motivates you.
“Look at the thousands of glorious mountainsides 看完上红遍
Read aloud with me 跟着我念
The characters, correct, rounded one’s chest 字正腔圆
Entering high and exiting level 平上入去
The common idea, spirit of a child 谱意气少年
Qin, Han, Tang, Song, Yuan 秦汉唐宋元
Bright Books, Shining Sounds, Sprinkled before doors 朗朗书声洒在窗前
Whose house's poetry has been passed down for thousands of years?”
谁家的诗篇传颂了千年
“Know your opponent. Know yourself. 100 battles. 100 victories.” -Sun Tzu 孙子