"CIA chief says Russia's failures in the Ukraine war have sealed its fate as 'China's economic vassal'" 揭谛揭谛...
Rowing the boat home: 火炎焱燚
And you know what else? China will actually get rewarded for doing the right thing in Ukraine, by seeking to end the conflict, without contributing militarily to Russia's remarkably stupid war of choice.
SURPRISE, MOTHERFUCKERS.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/27445
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-internet-outage-blackout-1865520
Can it be blame Montreal day? Please? =) Otherwise Freddie makes a great Armenian SSR Young Pioneer….
Clawing Back Air Superiority. As predicted here.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-fighter-jet-shot-down-ukraine-su34-1865164#
Deep Strikes targeting oil, petroleum: As predicted here.
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-drone-fire-st-petersburg-1865526
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-mystery-flash-electrical-substation-ukraine-1865207
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/25638137/ukraine-storm-shadow-missile-airfield-crimea/
Blood Purge Rolls Scarlet in “Russian” Federation
THE STRATEGY
Deep strikes in Russia to destroy the Russian air force and oil industry while fomenting rebellions in the foreign countries Russia still occupies (about 20). Encourage Russian blood purges and targeted killing of Russian command structure at all levels. Sanctions and more sanctions. Sticks and more sticks.
Encircle Iran in Proxy Wars, Defeat Iran in Proxy Wars, while fomenting revolution in Iran and destroying the Iranian oil industry. Sanctions and more sanctions. Sticks and more sticks.
Guaranty China oil, commerce, policies of non-ouster of the CCP in exchange and status quo in Taiwan in exchange for neutrality. Carrots and sticks.
This is just a capsule summary, all of it is detailed fairly extensively in prior posts.
While Washington might like to imagine this ending with other than revolution and rebellions in "Russia" and Iran, it will. Welcome to the multipolar world, how may we refuse your orders?
You will all be much happier after these wars, and should help out or at least not interfere since the USA will do most of the heavy lifting even though you will profit more from their succesful prosecution than the USA. The world after the war criminals in Moscow and crazy terrorists in Teheran are gone will be much more peaceful and productive than the last 20 years, and this is a goal both Beijing and DC can and will agree to reach.
HOW DO YOU LIKE MY STRATEGY？
我 略 懂 爱 情 奥 义
"The way of my stratagem, love, is mysterious and righteous."
MEARSEHHEIMER
John Mearsheimer is a well intended person who is rightly hoping to reign in some of the US foreign policy establishment ("the blob") adventurism. Unfortunately he should have been doing that about 20 years ago and we are I must say more or less committed by historical events to over-throwing the governments in Moscow and Tehran, which are horrible, crazy, and violent. No amount of soft-peddling can get around that.
Currently, Washington is imagining it can have something other than a war against the Mullahs ruling Iran by many, many public hangings, often of those evil dirty satanic faggots they love to hate so much. It cannot. War between Washington and Tehran is inevitable, though exactly how it will be fought remains to be seen. I predict a 3-5 proxy wars in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, at least, concurrent with increasing destabilization and eventually strikes in Iran itself culminating in a popular revolution, and strongly suggest the literal Chinese Communist Party engage in mass organization and party building in Iran. The more the literally atheist Chinese state helps get rid of the literal medieval theocracy the better conditions for post-war Chinese trade and investment in liberated Iran will be. 解放伊朗！！ 解放西伯利亚！ 工党万岁！中国加油！
Although I do think states are useful as a concept they are always changing and amorphous and ultimately composed of people, who are flawed, changeable, and mortal. The realist model Mearsheimer takes up champions the idea of states as rational power maximizers, homo politicus. This is generally the case, states usually are rational actors, so are their leaders, and they generally seek to maximize their power and influence. Where I split from realists is in recognizing there are lots of liberal internationalist institutions which in fact make war less likely -- not impossible, because there are irrational actors, the Putins and Mullahs for example.
Liberal peace through trade, peace through prosperity, peace through economic interdependence theory does in fact work and while it does not make war impossible it seriously constrains regimes to peaceable actions. China is the exemplar of a State which, were there no liberal theory of peace-through-trade-and-investment-creating prosperity would likely have had several wars instead of 40 years without fighting one foreign war.
Though, realists are right to see the necessity of deterrence, yet they underplay or even ignore the role of collective security in preventing war. NATO's existence is why there was no World War III in West Germany during the cold war, for example.
Some equate neo-conservatism (which is horrible warmed over fascism) with neo-liberalism (which is basically just adam smith minus the labor theory of value). That is a mistake. Neo-conservativism is a deeply dishonest and fundamentally flawed neo-fascist view. In contrast, neo-liberalism is an economic theory and is nearly entirely accurate, excepting its rejection of the labor theory of value. Neo-liberalism is accurate and can be fairly easily purged of its erroneous views about the labor theory of value. But there is no cure for the duplicitous, interventionist neo-cunts, who lie, cheat, steal, and kill and thus will be ousted from power and influence, since attractive ideas generate compliance and emulation, but repulsive ideas generate resistence, rebellion, and rejection.
Though Mearsheimer imagines himself to be a realist, he really isn't in practice he embraces liberal internationalism. Too bad he is right to point out some of the failings of liberal internationalism, yet unable to notice the serious limitations of realism. Nazi realists exist, and are currently celebrating, absolutely thrilled, with the Arab-Israeli and Slav self-genocides. Fewer enemies of the Aryans! Mearsheimer might be right to oppose the Israelis' war, but not for "realist" reasons. This is why his ideas are crap. They are shallow, even self-contradictory, due to inadequate theoretical foundation and a pig headed unwillingness to change his ideas in the face of obvious facts like: Putin is basically Hitler.
Of course states (which are fictions) are "captured" by factions which act in their own interest, which may diverge from those of the people or peoples they represent. I am not an atomist or a dualist, but any collective is by definition constantly changing. States do not always act in their own rational self interest, nor do all individuals which compose them. It is the failure to account for irrationality and factionalism which more or less force all states into varying degrees of liberalism and democracy. But the failure of the "realists" is their self-inflicted incapacity to see those processes at the state-level and then transpose them internationally. John thinks liberal internationalism cannot work. Thankfully he is wrong, or we already would have had world war three several times over. Fucking dinosaur.
IRAN (And Proxies…)
Iran-backed group suspends attacks against US after drone strike https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68150359 Some folks are always a day Late and a dollar Short. "Actions speak louder than words"
CHINA
Row the boat home.
I, and thus the CIA (if I know it they know it), are perfectly aware that the PRC's goal is to basically bankrupt the USA in a series of failed expensive wars, and profit all along the way. It's not like no one never read "Unrestricted Warfare". The CCP might just notice the shall we say "shakey" Chinese economy, which threatens the monopoly of the CCP on lawful state power on mainland China and maybe, just maybe, deepen trans-pacific cooperation rather than pursue outlandish and unrealistic goals. You will get to common global prosperity much more effectively through cooperation rather than provocation. But what do I know? Oh, a better translation would be "Beyond the Limits of War". 超艮战 When I first read "Unrestricted Warfare" twenty years ago, in the winter of 2001-2002, I did know that the CCP/PRC would likely attain their goal of suckering the USA into a series of wars in the Mid East. But I also knew during those wars USA war-making would be honed, not degraded, not distracted but sharpened. China is clearly willing to step back and see if the USA will make more such mistakes. It really shall not.
China can and likely will escape from the various wars intact, entirely unscathed, and will tell the survivors something like "You should have listened to us". There is some truth to that idea, but China is unwilling or even unable to impose an enduring regional peace, let alone global peace. Friendly reminder: peace is necessary for the party state's factories to run, as the past couple years have shown. The economic destruction of China is not the U.S. objective, but if China pursues policies which obstruct peace and provoke conflicts then how should it surprise China when the USA takes up policies which exacerbate the logical consequences of policies China has chosen.
I expect the Chinese government to strengthen its peacemaking and reduce its provocations resulting in economic recovery in China despite the destruction of the Russian and Iranian oil industries because though China is not so cooperative as one might like it also is not anywhere near so horrible as China's trading partners, Russia and Iran. Those two countries shall be reduced. China shall not.
Because who in their right mind would want to oppose common prosperity? What sane responsible people want to oppose peace through prosperity? I hear none.
越来中国帮助美国，越来美国会帮助中国。
CIA-doubled-budget-for China hadn’t noticed, I swear. Hire me before I work for free for someone you would prefer me not to work for lol.
Myanmar
Although the USA might prefer a stabilization and democratization within ASEAN approach, China is far likelier to be able to impose peace and consequent prosperity than the USA. This is partly because of their different interests and also thanks to geography and culture. Myanmar is really not so Distant from China, but is far from the USA. Myanmar has oil, and China needs oil, especially since Russian oil is going to be burning, and Iranian oil too in fact. Moreover, Burmese is a language related to Chinese and there is a Chinese ethno statelet in Northern Burma. In contrast, the USA only has ideological interests in human rights and democracy. Consequently, the USA can and should sit back, let China impose peace, and only then concern itself with democracy or human rights, since war is the opposite of those things. For 20 years the USA made the mistake of putting the human rights cart before the security horse. We can only protect human rights in peaceful conditions and thus can only have actual human rights protection and attainment where state power exists.
https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-marking-three-years-since-the-military-coup-in-myanmar/
While a few actual students are being detained for routine border checks we will say not one word about which or how many actual Chinese spies were intercepted, one way or other. Not sorry.
Welcome to "unity in conflict", assholes. Get comfortable, we're gonna be here a while.
Lenin once said, correctly, that historical progress usually occurs through "two steps forward, one step back" i.e. through conflicting forces.
Learn Japanese
Nancy Pelosi: Although Nancy is right to point out that pro-Palestine protestors are definitely locked at the hips to Putin, they might not know that. However, she is wrong to imagine that the pro-Putin protestors are somehow connected to China. China is "neutral" on all these conflicts. They only want to do business and grow their own economy, not risk Chinese lives or waste Chinese money on Russia's idiotic wars. Yes, Nancy's husband is mobbed up. Of course he and she are making money on insider trading. Probably she didn't learn the lesson, or learned the wrong lesson, when her "family ways" got her husband bashed upside the head with a hammer. Anyway, her majesty is retiring from electoral politics and has publicly said she will not seek reelection. Which is good, because what ever do I know about reinforcement algorithms in machine learning programs?
An Israeli War Crime: Law and Justice
I had not pointed out the obvious illegality of masquerading as physicians to kill of terrorists. That is an act of perfidy, a war crime. This brings up the issue of the connextion between law and justice.
Almost always, we are much better to get at justice-by-law. That is, justice under law is ordinarily attainable, and at lower costs in blood or treasure than justice without law.
There is however lawless justice.
Not all legal things are fair, and not all illegal things are unfair. That is, states attain perfect justice, which is the exact union of law and morality only exceptionally. However, because States are almost always better at attaining justice than private blood feud, duel, or similar lawless self-help measures nearly universally state power arises and makes public law which is both more forceful and, generally, fairer than private justice.
The conflict between public law and private right, between the force of state power and the righteousness of private relations, is inherent to State-power.
I am entirely certain the Israeli act of perfidy was a crime under international law. However, international law is self-enforcing, self-regulating, and enforced by arms. Thus, I also have no doubt that the perpetrators of this particular perfidy will never be held accountable to international law. Nor does that much bother me. For I understand: there is law, and there is justice. We generally better obtain justice through law.
But sometimes, as an exceptiona, a thug like me gets the job done. After all,
no one much complains about dead pedos, now do you?
Yeah, it’s personal…
Whomever left me the "Wild and Free" tiger lighter. Thank you. We just concluded the Year of the Tiger. Message recu. Today is the first day of the year of the dragon! I predict trans-pacific prosperity, bold plans, leadership. We can do ANYTHING if we are willing to let others take the credit for our successes, yet shoulder the responsibility for our errors. 龙年快乐！