Coups are quick
civil wars are slow. A "hao tu" guide...
Putschin:
“That’s treason”. Too bad for you, huh.
Vladimir Putin blames Russia’s defeat in WWI on “backstab”. He’s full on Hitler now.
Putin is still alive and in Moscow after 12-20 hours of what is now evident rebellion and mutiny. If Putin survives the next 72 hours then expect a Russian civil war. If he survives the next 144 hours a Russian civil war is near certain. Prigozhin will almost certainly survive the next six weeks and more.
Civil wars tend to be terribly violent bloody and destructive. This is a sub-optimal victory. A coup however is already unlikely. Putin has survived so many attempts on his life and his entire mafia state is organized around preventing a coup or assassination of Putin, whom we ought call “Putschin.” A putsch is a coup, though putches tend to be faster, more decisive, less bloody than a coup. A putsch is usually ended with little or no but highlly focused violence. The violence in a coup is not quite so well directed or rapid yet also decapitates the government to replace it. Civil wars, again, tend to drag on, and be very bloody.
I pointed out I have at least four paths to victory for Ukraine.
Victory on the battlefield, which is alreay out-bound.
Victory by coup or Putsch against Putin, unlikely but possible! Roll them dice!
Victory by civil war against Putin, which appears to be underway
Chinese intervention which is liklier to be
diplomatic, negotiating peace
military, intervening into Russia with the Chinese military to protect peace 保护平安 is literally a quote from China’ patriotic song; and for political reasons
The prospects for Chinese Intervention
Don’t think I wouldn’t do it.
I totally would.
It would make Mother proud!
As well as protecting peace China’s first serious foreign intervention since 1979 would also secure Chinese economic and security interests. There are Chinese emigrants living in what used to be China until Russia stole it from China. China has political and ideological and cultural justifications to interven in the Amur valley, Vladivostok, Kamchatka.
China has already warned Russia (Putin) that use of nuclear weapons would result in Chinese intervention. I sketch out the types of interventions China could do because the quickest least bloody path to peace in Ukraine is to rapidly destroy Putin’s regime, even to the extent of the disaggrgation of the Russian Federation.
As well as protecting Chinese emigrants and Chinese economic investments Chinese intervention to keep peace as Russian state power implodes like a submersible poking round the Titanic justifies limited pacific Chinese intervention. This is the failed state / etat d’ingerence theory of international law, the idea that an organized effective State has the right or even duty to intervene in failed states to prevent greater violence. This is the idea of necessity as justification for otherwise illegal acts: the failure of Russia to self-govern creating literal war crimes and widespread human rights violations actual an potential explains why China is justified to intervene in Russia; this may also be seen as the exercise of extra-territorial jurisdiction on the basis of the protective principle.
I argue Washington D.C. should support and encourage China to intervene into Siberia, Yakutia, Kamchatka to preserve peace and protect Chinese lives, Chinese investments, and to help the USA to secure peace for Ukraine against the criminal regime of kleptocratic mass murderers in Moscow.
“Mehr Licht” -Goethe
Q. “If you communists are good why do hide in the darkness?”
A. “Because we’re protecting the light.”
What can I say to that? I’m a justice at any price kinda fella’. The alternative to me doing these horrible things, for which I most certainly will be punished, is even worse.
If you wish to defeat an opponent you must understand them thoroughly. Moreover such understanding will make your victory optimal. I seek not merely victory in Ukraine for Ukraine but also at the lowest cost in Ukrainian blood. Hence, I optimize my victory algorithm through iteration and reiteration of the competing paths of victory to obtain the path which is least bloody.
Though I am an authoritarian, not a liberal, Churchill said something worth thinking over: “Truth needs a bodyguard of lies”; he perhaps qualified that as a war-time necessity. Churchill was a brilliant orator, but a terribly bad strategist, yet possessed of powerful democratic instincts and dogged determination to stand up for those principles of freedom and democracy no matter the price. It’s this idealism and relentless commitment which is worth understanding and emulating.
My view is: truth is more powerful than lies and needs no bodyguard. You might not like the truth. Too fucking bad.
News
Russia coup latest: This armed mutiny is treason and a mortal blow says Putin
Give your eyes a rest and work on your English oral comprehension with the Wall Street Journal’s article on Putin (2 minutes audio not paywalled, blue button on the left)
Chechen leader Kadyrov says his forces ready to help put down Wagner’s mutiny
Putin accuses Wagner chief of stoking 'armed rebellion'
Is this a coup? What is Prigozhin doing in Russia?
Режим контртеррористической операции введен в Воронежской области
ВИДЕО И ФОТО ⟩ Пригожин заявил, что не сдастся. Он уже занял Ростов и Воронеж, грозит идти на Москву
В стране и миреВ регионах России начали принимать меры в связи с мятежом Пригожина
Бойцы Вагнера заняли Ростов, а Пригожин в штабе ЮВО ждет Шойгу и Герасимова на переговоры
“瓦格纳”首领称其部队已进入俄境内！一文梳理这场“叛乱”经过……
Rébellion de Wagner : pour Poutine, le point de non-retour est atteint
Language Cross Training: Work on your Russian listening comprehension or your Chinese reading comprehension. I’m all about parallel texts, interlineal texts, graded readers, and poetry. I love words.
Global Leaders Figure Out Economic Suicide is Stupid Despite Obvious Criminal Moscow Murderer, Commander in Thief Putschin:
加油！
I really love acapella 我真的很喜欢阿卡贝拉
The People need Hope.
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I’m a little confused. Are you saying you are an authoritarian, and not a liberal? And if so, which sense of “liberal” are you using? I appreciate your taking a moment to clarify. I’m not trying to debate you; I’m just not clear on which position you’re arguing from. Thanks!