Peace through Trade, Investment, Collective Security, Deterrence, Human Rights, & Democracy
Guns or Butter? The pursuit of peace and prosperity in a world where cultural asymmetries and divergent goals often lead to conflict. As a defensive realist, I have come to realize that the key to avoiding war lies not in the abandonment of self-interest, but in the careful management of power and the cultivation of cooperation through international trade and investment. Capitalist peace theory, which posits that economic interdependence and the promotion of human rights can reduce the likelihood of conflict, has become an integral part of my worldview.
The United States, with its history as a rough and rugged frontier society, has often been characterized by a lack of self-restraint in its foreign policy endeavors. The notion of "American exceptionalism" has led to a sense of invincibility and a tendency to disregard the interests and perspectives of other nations. This cultural asymmetry has been a major contributor to misunderstandings and miscalculations in international relations, often exacerbating conflicts and making them more difficult to resolve.
The current tensions between the United States and China are a prime example of this phenomenon. Both nations' governing elites and opposing factions claim to desire peace and prosperity, yet their cultural differences and divergent goals threaten to derail these efforts. The United States, with its emphasis on individualism and liberal democracy, often views China's authoritarian regime as a threat to global stability and security. China, on the other hand, sees the United States as a hegemonic power seeking to constrain its rise and undermine its sovereignty.
As a defensive realist, I believe that the key to avoiding conflict between these two nations lies in the establishment of clear lines of communication, the promotion of economic interdependence, and the cultivation of mutual understanding and respect. The United States and China must recognize that their interests are not mutually exclusive, and that cooperation can be a more effective means of achieving their goals than confrontation.
One of the primary mechanisms for promoting cooperation between nations is international trade and investment. Capitalist peace theory suggests that economic interdependence can reduce the likelihood of conflict by creating mutual interests and incentives for cooperation. When nations are economically intertwined, they are more likely to resolve disputes through diplomacy and negotiation rather than resorting to force.
Historically, the United States and China have benefited greatly from their economic relationship. The United States has been a major market for Chinese exports, while China has been a significant investor in U.S. Treasury bonds and a key partner in global supply chains. However, the current trade tensions between the two nations threaten to undermine this relationship and create a more confrontational atmosphere.
To avoid this outcome, both nations must work to promote greater economic cooperation and interdependence. This can be achieved through the negotiation of new trade agreements, the promotion of foreign investment, and the establishment of joint economic initiatives. By networked economic relationships, the United States and China can reduce the likelihood of conflict and create a more stable and prosperous international environment.
Another key factor in promoting cooperation between nations is the promotion of human rights and democracy. Liberal peace theory suggests that democratic nations are less likely to engage in conflict with one another, as they share common values and institutions that promote peaceful resolution of disputes. Although China's authoritarian regime is not as conducive to democratic values as we desire, the United States can still promote human rights and democracy through diplomatic engagement and economic incentives.
The United States has a long history of promoting democracy and human rights around the world, often through the use of economic aid and diplomatic pressure: carrots and sticks. In the case of China, the United States can work to promote greater transparency and accountability in governance, while also encouraging China to respect the human rights of its citizens. By promoting democratic values and human rights, the United States can help to create a more stable and peaceful international environment, while also promoting its own interests and values.
In addition to promoting economic interdependence and human rights, the United States and China must also work to establish clear lines of communication and mutual understanding. This can be achieved through regular diplomatic engagement, cultural exchange programs, and joint military exercises. By promoting greater understanding and respect between their nations, the United States and China can reduce the likelihood of miscalculations and miscommunications that can lead to conflict.
The concept of collective security is also essential in promoting cooperation between nations. Collective security refers to the idea that nations can work together to provide for their mutual security, rather than relying solely on individual efforts. This can be achieved through the establishment of international institutions, such as the United Nations, and the promotion of regional security arrangements.
In the case of the United States and China, collective security can be promoted through the establishment of a regional security framework that includes other nations in the Asia-Pacific region. This framework can provide a mechanism for resolving disputes and promoting cooperation on issues such as counter-terrorism, non-proliferation, and maritime security. By working together to provide for their mutual security, the United States and China can reduce the likelihood of conflict and create a more stable and peaceful international environment.
Deterrence is also an essential component of international relations, particularly in the context of great power rivalry.
Here are this weeks free eBooks. Enjoy reading!
btw. I started a substack. You probably haven’t heard of large concept models or other meta.ai inventions. I’m ahead of the curve.
Equitable Remedies
Write to Win
Why Trump Won, Why Clinton Lost
Solomon’s Gate: Strategic Analysis of Current Mid East Conflicts
CHINESE VOCABULARY BUILDER CHENG YU PROVERBS SONGS AND POEMS
Brave New Orange
Every day, day after day, Ukraine pounds Russian oil, aircraft, and military industry into the ground. What else do you want me to sign Off on?
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/still_on_fire_after_previous_attack_engels_airbase_in_russia_faces_ukrainian_drones_once_again-13163.html
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3954127-uk-intelligence-reveals-aftermath-of-drone-strikes-on-russian-oil-depot-near-engels-airbase.html
China isn’t Russia of course I condemn the following:
https://www.mk.co.kr/en/world/11228002
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-28/explosion-shenyang-market-xi-jinping/104867774
https://english.cctv.com/2025/01/29/ARTIenqw3ZpxFEvmbtiU6K3k250129.shtml
Looking forward to the Russians getting captured. Looks like Chinese don’t let others fuck around and get away with it.
that’s exactly what my condemnation looks like 义
Word of the day: Evil
sample sentence "There are evil men in this world."
French:
Evil: mal (male)
Sample sentence: "Il y a des hommes malveillants dans ce monde." (pronounced "eel yah deh ohm mal-vay-yahnt dahnt seh mohnd")
Spanish:
Evil: malo (MAH-loh)
Sample sentence: "Hay hombres malvados en este mundo." (pronounced "AHY OHM-breh mah-LVAH-thohs ehn EH-steh MOHN-doh")
German:
Evil: böse (BUR-zeh)
Sample sentence: "Es gibt böse Männer in dieser Welt." (pronounced "ES GEEPT BUR-zeh MAHN-er in DEE-zer VELT")
Estonian:
Evil: kurat (KOO-rah-t)
Sample sentence: "Maailmas on kurad mehed." (pronounced "MAH-ee-lmahs ohn KOO-rah-deh meh-hehd")
Ukrainian:
Evil: злий (zlyy) - note: злий is an adjective, and the noun form is зло (zlo)
Sample sentence: "У світі є злі люди." (pronounced "OO SVY-tee YEH ZLEE LYU-dee")
Transliteration: "U sviti ye zli lyudi"
Russian:
Evil: злой (zloy) - note: злой is an adjective, and the noun form is зло (zlo)
Sample sentence: "В мире есть злые люди." (pronounced "V MEE-re YEST ZLY-yeh LYU-dee")
Transliteration: "V mire yest' zlyye lyudi"
Chinese (Simplified):
Evil: 邪恶 (xié è) - note: the character 邪 means "evil" or "wicked", and 恶 means "evil" or "bad"
Sample sentence: "这个世界上有坏人。" (pronounced "zhè ge shì jiè shàng yǒu huài rén")
Transliteration: "zhè ge shì jiè shàng yǒu huài rén"
Pinyin: "zhè ge shì jiè shàng yǒu huài rén"