DAWN OF THE PACIFIC CENTURY OF PEACE AND PROSPERITY

Next target: Russia's Shadow Oilers!

Apr 29, 2024

Contents: Xi Jinping & Grand Pacific Peace through Prosperity, News, Videos, Cryptography & Espionage, Learn Chinese

No one can stop an idea whose time has come. (Attributed to Victor Hugo)

What Hugo meant is: material conditions in the world change, and these changes sometimes (exceptionally) unleash and empower grand new ideas about how we shall relate with each other. In such circumstances old ideas, old ways, naturally fall away, and newer better ideas take hold. We can't stop changes but we can comprehend and influence them.

Its Darkest before Dawn: From War and Poverty to Peace and Prosperity:

For example, Vladimire Putin wanted to return to the world of Tsarina Katharina the Great. In that world borders could be "adjusted" by force: states back then had an absolute right to go to war with anyone anytime for any reason or no reason at all. Do you see the problems with that system? The notion of reverting to a bygone era, where might makes right and borders can be changed through force, is a deadly outdated idea: The world of war after war for territory and market share. Vladimire Putin's desire to return to the world of Tsarina Katharina the Great is a foolish and failed attempt to revive a system that was inherently flawed and prone to conflict.

In the 18th century, when Tsarina Katharina the Great ruled Russia, states had an absolute right to go to war with anyone, anytime, and for any reason or no reason at all. That was a recipe for disaster. This system, often referred to as the "Westphalian system," was characterized by a lack of international laws and norms, the law of the jungle, and a reliance on brute force to settle disputes.

The problems with this system are numerous and far-reaching. Firstly, it creates an environment of constant instability and insecurity, where states are forced to live in a perpetual fear and mistrust. The absence of international laws and norms means that there was no mechanism for resolving disputes peacefully, leading to a never-ending downward spiral of war and poverty.

Secondly, the Westphalian system was inherently unjust, as it allowed powerful states to bully and intimidate weaker ones. A system based on "might makes right" means "the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must." That system rewards aggression and punishes weakness, creating a violent impoverished world.

Thirdly, might-makes-right is incompatible with the principles of democracy and human rights. In a world where states are free to go to war at will, the rights and freedoms of individuals are constantly in deadly danger.

Putin's Great Leap Backward will ultimately fail, and it will do so catastrophically. The Russian economy, which is heavily reliant on oil and gas exports, is already feeling the strain of international sanctions and drone strikes. Russia's military, still largely equipped with Soviet-era hardware, is no match for the modern, high-tech militaries of the West. Putin's actions have galvanized the international community, that is now more united than ever in its opposition to Russian aggression.

In the end, Putin's own actions will lead to his downfall. His attempt to revive a failed bygone era will ultimately doom him and the "Russian" Federation. Out of the wreckage and ruins of devastated heroic Ukraine, we will all see the dawn of a new era of global peace and prosperity. The international community will emerge stronger and more united than ever, with a renewed commitment to the principles of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. The people of Ukraine, who have suffered so much at the hands of Russian aggression, will finally be able to rebuild their country and live in peace. A New Marshall Plan will provide support and assistance as Ukraine rebuilds. The world will be a safer, more peaceful place, as the threat of Russian aggression is finally ended. Putin's Great Leap Backward will be remembered as a dark chapter in history, but it will also serve as a reminder of the importance of international cooperation and the need to defend the principles of democracy and human rights. Reforms of the UN an WTO will occur, and the rules based world order will emerge stronger and more united than ever, as a new era of global peace and prosperity dawns. The people of Ukraine will finally be able to live in peace, and the world will be a safer, more peaceful place.

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THE DAWN OF A NEW ERA: THE PACIFIC CENTURY OF PEACE THROUGH PROSPERITY

Who will rebuild Ukraine? We will.

When the Chinese Communist Party chose to go down the road of state capitalism under Deng Xiaoping it did so with this idea: "all of us will get rich, but some of us will get rich first". The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) adoption of state capitalism has been a deliberate choice, driven by the idea that economic growth and prosperity can be achieved while maintaining a degree of social equality. Part of Xi's restructuring of China is wealth equalization, raising the poorest parts of China out of poverty and into moderate prosperity. Another part has been checking potential oligarchs from setting themselves up to seize state power.

This approach is in stark contrast to the oligarchic model that has plagued Russia, where a small elite has amassed vast wealth at the expense of the general population. China chose not to go down the road to oligarchy and capitalist restoration that has ruined Russia so completely. China is not Russia or the USSR. China does not want to be Russia nor to be the USSR.

Instead, under Xi Jinping's leadership, China is now seeking to extend a model of production that has worked in practice in a terribly poor country to the global stage. His goal is to build together a more prosperous and interconnected world. Chairman Xi is charting a course where the entire world will get richer, but some parts of it will get richer quicker than others. For example, China will grow richer than the USA in absolute terms but the USA will grow even richer per capita. Moreover, the USA will per capita remain richer, even much richer, than China for the foreseeable future -- centuries, not decades, if past trends continue. Past trends are in fact likely to continue.

The implications of Xi Jinping's global economic vision are far-reaching. For one, it challenges the traditional Western notion that economic power is synonymous with military power. Xi Jinping's China is not seeking to supplant the United States as the dominant military power, but rather to create a new paradigm where economic cooperation and mutual benefit take precedence over military might. To this materialist-idealistic view, international relations is not a zero-sum game, where one country's gain must come at the expense of another. Rather, it is a win-win scenario, where China's growth and development are a catalyst for global prosperity.

This is not to say that China is naive about the role of power in international relations. Xi Jinping is well aware that a strong military is necessary to defend China if only from terrorists and pirates, as well as to maintain regional stability. However, he also recognizes that military power is a blunt instrument of limited use; that true strength is found in productive work, technological innovation, and diplomatic cooperation.

Xi Jinping's vision involves engaging in constructive cooperation with the world. The goal is growth and greater wealth for all, not just China or the USA. This strategy is expected to eventually lead to China surpassing the United States as the world's largest economy, but only in nominal terms. It should also lead to Africa, South America, and Southa Asia to achieve moderate prosperity, reducing terrorism and wars indirectly: why kill anyone if you are getting rich?

The rise of China seems dangerous to Americans, who are so focused on money that they wrongly equate money with power. But bullets and knives are not made of gold. China will be unable to challenge the USA militarily, and so we can, and should, cooperate economically.

For many Americans, the notion of China surpassing the United States as the world's largest economy is a daunting prospect, one that strikes at the very heart of their national identity. This anxiety stems from a deep-seated but mistaken belief that economic dominance is inextricably linked to global influence and power. In their minds, the country with the largest economy is not only the wealthiest, but also the most powerful and respected.

This conflation of economic wealth with national power and influence is a particularly American phenomenon, rooted in the country's history of economic exceptionalism. From the early days of industrialization to the post-war boom, the United States has long been accustomed to being the world's largest economy. Though that may well change, the USA will remain the world economic leader, with the dollar serving as the global reserve currency. U.S. economic hegemony is insurmountable because of institutional stability, trust, gold reserves, and investments' returns. I have secret "weapons" which can perpetuate U.S. financial dominance. Because they are secret I do not divulge them. They do not involve counterfeiting or debt default, but would generate U.S. prosperity at the expense of those countries that do not enjoy rule of law: it is exactly this perverse zero-sum economics that China and the USA both wish to avoid. But the USA can win that competition, whether China could too is an open question. There would in any case be impoverished desperate confused losers in the world of zero sum economics, even without wars.

Regardless, because of the false equation of money with power, the idea of China eventually surpassing the United States in economic terms, even only relatively, is mistakenly seen as a threat not only to America's economic interests, but also to its very status as a global leader. It's challenges people's sense of self and is a blow to national pride and prestige. Instead of being thrilled to see China take up so much of American culture or grateful at Chinese provision of low cost high quality goods they are fearful because they think themselves weak, when in fact they are strong. So, for many Americans, the rise of China forces them to reexamine their assumptions about the country's place in the world and its relationship with other nations.

The Economic Future:

U.S. per capita income at no point in the next centuries under any model falls below that of Chinese per capita income. However, both U.S. per capita income and Chinese per capita income shall grow. African and South American incomes will also grow greatly! All this will mean a relative reduction in U.S. GDP accompanied by an absolute increase in U.S. GDP.

Power and Military Strategies:

Power, as opposed to influence or persuasion, is in ultimo brute force and violence. Power is naturally repulsive, unappealing, and only used as a last resort. It's the final line of defense, a necessary evil rather than a desired course of action.

As a former soldier, I sometimes unintentionally intimidate those who aren't accustomed to dealing with people like me. This is because they're not used to being around those willing to take bold action. However, my presence is necessary to protect them from other aggressive individuals and to maintain order among those who might otherwise take advantage of them. They need people like me to protect them from other people somewhat like me, and to keep other people like me in good order and discipline.

Xi Jinping will rightly appeal to your aspirations, your senses of hope, optimism. He may also appeal to your self-interest, highlighting opportunities for growth and prosperity. In other words he will also appeal to your greed and opportunism. A smart challenger doesn't point out your weaknesses. Xi Jinping will focus on positive themes, avoiding divisive rhetoric that stokes fear and hatred.

No one else is going to talk much about fear let alone hate.

Hello!

China's approach to war is characterized by a long-term perspective, prioritizing ultimate victory over short-term gains. This strategy involves absorbing losses in individual battles, if necessary, in order to emerge triumphant in the war: losing the battle to win the war. Furthermore, even if victory in the war proves elusive, China's focus shifts to securing a favorable peace, thereby mitigating the consequences of defeat: losing the war, but winning the peace. Put simply: China's war strategy is to lose battles, if necessary, but win the war, and failing to win the war then to win the peace despite losing the war.

China's approach to warfare is nearly the exact opposite of Western stratagems.

Western military strategies often prioritize winning every battle and the war itself, with less consideration given to the aftermath and the challenges of maintaining a lasting peace. This approach can lead to a false sense of security, as a victorious military campaign may not necessarily translate to a stable and peaceful outcome in the long run. Put simply: western strategists typically seek to win all the battles, and thereby to win the war, but often put little thought into the peace thereafter. This is an example of how war destroys or at least degrades rational objective political calculation and negotiation.

It is this strategic disequilibrium that I use to outmaneuver others, ultimately working in your own best interests thereby: "herding cats" is easier with some food, water, catnip and the switch.

As I gaze into the future, I foresee China's economic prowess continuing to grow, eventually surpassing that of the United States, perhaps as early as 2030 or 2040. However, this ascendance will be temporary, as the United States will eventually reclaim its position as the world's wealthiest nation, around a.d. 2100, certainly by a.d. 2200, at latest, when the USA overtakes Chinese wealth again. Throughout this hundred years of economic parity neither side will so greatly exceed the other as to seek to destroy the trade and investment partner that is making their people so very wealthy.

Importantly, the collective wealth of the United States and its treaty allies taken together will always be greater than that of China. In other words: at no point will Chinese wealth surpass the combined wealth of the West. Finally, it should be remembered that the USA has forged and leads the most formidable alliance network in human history. China could not hope to defeat the West militarily. Why would they even try? Chinese wealth at no point in the future would exceed the collective wealth of the West.

"Take no counsel of your fears." General George Patton

The proposal presented by Xi Jinping is one that warrants serious consideration. He has publicly expressed his willingness to engage in compromise and resolution on many many issues, including even with regard to Taiwan. Taiwan is the issue of paramount importance to the Chinese people and the Chinese governments: There is no question more important to Chinese people than Taiwan. Taiwan is China's core foreign policy interest. Even there Xi Jinping is willing to work toward compromise, accomodation, mutual peace and prosperity.

Xi Jinping is not seeking to see Taiwan turned into a Chinese base for a re-run of World War II in the pacific. He is however seeking trade, friendly relations, no independence, and friendly cross straits relations. It is clear that Xi Jinping's intentions are not to transform Taiwan into a Chinese military base, but rather to foster trade, friendly relations, and cross-strait cooperation, while maintaining China's sovereignty.

In essence, Xi Jinping is offering a comprehensive package of foreign policy security cooperation, one that should not be taken lightly. You can obtain complete cooperation from China on issues of global security. China is already the world's largest contributor to U.N. Peacekeeping forces, yet has waged no wars nor proxy wars or revolutionary war or terrorism since 40 years.

I strongly advise accepting Xi's proposal, as the alternatives are dire: a world of wars, rebellions, terrorism, and instability, reminiscent of the chaos we have witnessed in Russia and throughout Asia. The past 20 years of failed U.S. foreign policy, marked by costly and futile military interventions, serve as a stark reminder of the consequences of rejecting this offer.

The deal that Xi Jinping is offering the West is a simple one: full cooperation on security issues, mutual benefit in economic issues, and a commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes. This is not a zero-sum game, where one side must win and the other must lose. Rather, it is a win-win scenario, where both sides can benefit from increased trade, investment, and cooperation. The grand pacific peace proposed by Xi Jinping offers a unique opportunity for cooperation and mutual benefit. I urge you to seize this chance, as it is truly a deal of a lifetime.

As I have said here, the alternatives to the Chinese policies I advocate are hellish: wars, rebellions, terrorism, what we are seeing in Russia throughout all Asia. Did you enjoy 20 years and 3 trillion worth of wasted effort in failed war after war? The alternative to the grand pacific peace would mean lost production, lost wealth, and if you think you would not get sucked into some of the Eurasian wars I can just point to the last 20 years of failed U.S. foreign policy to prove you would.

The grand pacific peace proposed by Xi Jinping offers a unique opportunity for cooperation and mutual benefit. This is not a utopian dream, but rather a pragmatic and achievable goal, based on a deep understanding of the complexities of international relations and the drivers of global instability. I urge you to seize this chance, as it is truly a deal of a lifetime.

The alternatives to this approach are stark. A failure to engage with China, and to address the underlying issues driving global instability, would lead to a world of conflict, terrorism, and economic stagnation. The wars and rebellions that have plagued Asia and the Middle East would continue, with devastating consequences for global stability and prosperity. Yes, the USA would win such a war, under any circumstances: but it would be a pyrhic victory, reducing the world to poverty and with lost wealth and lives in the USA. And for what purpose?

Cui Bono?

“We are not decoupling” -Anthony Blinken U.S Foreign Minister (Secretary of State)