Decoding the US-China Relationship: Insights You Need to Know
Open This Letter to Unlock Your Intelligence & Discover a Dirty Secret...
Uniting with the progressive forces of the bourgoisie
reproletarianization of Ukraine's national bourgeoisie
实事求是
Have the rickety old terms repelled the greedsters and mass murderers yer?
Good!
揭底,揭底!
free ebooks and word of the day at the end of this brief.
Class based analysis is the dirty secret of intelligence.
Whether rich or poor, nation, race, sex, age, even health status, we use classification all the time! But…
“Global core” “highly developed” countries do not dare to admit using class analysis because the global class structure makes it look like they are exploiter nations exploiting the poor.
Unless they’re Chinese.
Intelligence services villify class analysis to blind opponents and stifle myth-mongers. But they use class analysis all the time. So does business. In business, class analysis is called “market segmentation” “niche marketing” and anything other than “class analysis”.
Operatives also tend not to admit using class analysis to avoid the uncomfortable question, sometimes posed in a basement:
“whose side are you really working for?”
Here’s an engimatic answer:
A ring
has an infinite number of sides
an inside,
and an outside.
In any case, intelligence services use class analysis all the time, but never admit to. They do so to supress the myth of wealth-through-exploitation. That is because:
The myth of wealth-through-exploitation is dangerous to core countries’ rule. This also explains why intelligence services never admit using class analysis even though they very often do. They also do class analysis with “matrix analyses”.
The myth of wealth-through-exploitation ALSO subverts economic growth in the “under-developed” “global south”, the “periphery” nations. Those countries are the majority of the planets population.
At best we live on a world with an 80/20 split, it’s really more like 90/10, not 99/1. At least 80% of us are dirt poor and 20% of us are really very rich, even if we lack bad experiences to prove it concretely and know it subjectively from lived experience.
Of course, the goal, whether in Beijing, Brussels, or D.C. is to have a planet which is 100% wealthy. Just about all people desire wealth. The monks, actual communists, hermits, ascetics, are the rare exception. Freed from the problem of wealth-getting, we can concentrate on other things. In my case: war and peace. Though, comprehending wealth production and preservation is part of pacification. Poorest people are desperate and thus likelier to do stupid violent things. Wealthy people are likelier not to do stupid things. That is because the wealthy are generally content, even happy, and in all cases have the time to consider dangerous choices carefully, unlike the poor. This also explains why Mao argued for tactical temerity and strategic posturing. The wealthy are never distracted by gnawing nagging hunger, insect infestation, rotting teeth or high blood pressure due to a poor diet, or the various other illnesses consequent to poverty. All of that badly influences decision-making among the poor. Ascetics however avoid at least the excesses of drug abuse, alcoholism, tobacco, gambling, vices which destroy the poor and rich alike.
In the last issue I talked about common things intelligence services want to prevent such as murdered whores, serial pedophile porn producers; vile things that serve no purpose even for black operations of any actually competent intelligence service prosecuting state power through frankly illegal warfare. These “things to avoid” are “negative goals”: they are things no one wants, things everyone can agree to oppose. Agreements on obvious issues enable confidence building for resolutions of the more conflicted issues.
In this issue I want first to point out common goals, positive aspirations, things everyone or nearly everyone wants to achieve. I then wish to go into how that might be achieved. I call these “positive goals” “things to embrace”, i.e. affirmative, desired (mutual!) goals.
I also wish to delineate what China wants, what the USA wants, what the USA can get, and what China can get.
Reproletarianization…
Sometimes a country will develop and grow rich enough to have a national bourgeoisie and yet also have a proletariat — workers and peasant farmers. But such a country might have its national bourgeoisie “re-proletarianized” as a result of the destructive consequences of war. Such a re-proletarianized national bourgeoisie can either go fascist-comprador or internationalist.
For example: All Ukraine’s enemyies thought and claimed Ukraine to be fascist. In fact, Ukraine was not fascist. Russia in contrast had plenty of crypto-fascists, Dugin and other NazBols. So I spent about eight years quietly convincing people of the now fairly obvious fact the fascists are in Moscow, not Kyiv. Consequently, it was no surprise to me when Ukraine’s national bourgeoisie was destroyed as a class and re-proletarianized their desperation drives them to consider friends and suppliers from anyone but Russia.
My problem now, unlike a year ago, isn’t finding arms suppliers acceptable to Ukraine. My problem is making sure all the countries lining up to arm Ukraine so Ukraine can fight their wars for them can get along well enough that they don’t get in each others’ way.
If you want Chinese arms in Ukrainian hands “all” you need is the money to pay for them. I’m a blame Taiwan or Singapore kinda fella when it comes time to ship deadly toys for or from the United Front Works Department. Plausible denial at plausible prices!
The fact the Chinese Communist Party would under certain conditions arm Ukraine is something Washington might not recognize or desire. If it ever were to happen is nothing China could ever admit. I swear those guns and bullets were made in Malaysia, honest!
I lead with that point so you understand the scope of potential cooperation. Then you will have the broadest possible policy choices in the disintegration of the Russian Federation into its constituent republics, which is something China would also be only too willing to see happen especially if it benefits China.
Spoiler: under all cases a weak Russia is good for China. 匈奴在北方!
Chinese, as Americans are finally starting to figure out, are very sharp traders. The war in Ukraine shows the USA retains, for now and at least the next few years, a decisive superiority with respect to China. This is basically the last chance the USA has to compel China into positions which China will tolerate.
For another example, South Korea currently has a national bourgeoisie. North Korea does not. South Korea could be re-proletarianized. China wishes however to see North Korea develop its national bourgeoisie and economy and hopes to see the Koreas reunited and under Chinese, not American influence. This is a positive power struggle which will lead at least to the crazy stupid kleptocrats in North Korea finally being reigned in by Beijing which will then do to North Korea what the USA did to South Korea.
And then what? Good question! Wish I knew the answer. I cannot work on transnational and international legal organizations at all deeply until Russia is defeated completely in Ukraine, since the post-war order will be shaped very much by the righteous prosecution of the war against the worst class traitor on earth: Putin and his clique of other murderers and thieves. 义
Sino-American Negotiations in Theory
Regarding U.S.-Chinese negotiations, each side must know and communicate clearly what it cannot accept, then they can work on what each (每一个) wants, to find out what both want (两个多.). Say you want A B C and I want C D E and you cannot accept me getting E and I cannot accept you getting A. Then negotiation outcomes are a range of possibilities for some combination of B-D.
A. Europeans
Europeans may complain I am somehow ignoring them, when I know for a fact Europe and Europeans basically want Chinese money and American guns, i.e. the benefits of both worlds and the costs of neither. I doubt Europe can play off the USA and China against each other, but I do think Europe likely can attain U.S. protection and still do business with China. In any case, the lack of European bargaining power — Europe has little to offer the USA or China — and Europe’s conflicting goals of obtaining U.S. (military) and Chinese (economic) support explain why I am, roughly speaking, politely “ignoring” Europeans’ thoughts about how to best take advantage of Washington. If we get to the undesired word where the USA is trying to destroy the Chinese economy, to oust the CCP and/or Xi Jinping, well, in that case I will start making pointed suggestions about what to do.
In other words: be happy with what you are getting, rather than disappointed about what you are not getting. Greedy people imagine themselves getting lots of goodies, but fail to imaging them getting nothing but problems instead because of their short-sighted greed. This is their cognitive error and is one of the ways greed robs the greedy of foresight.
B. Giving the Other Guy a Way Out: How to stab Russia in the back!
Part of effective negotiation is giving your counterpart a solution where s/he wins at least something. It’s also sometimes useful to give people who committed themselves to (self) destructive actions a way out. It is no longer useful, and thus not really possible, to give the incompetent war criminal Vladimir Putin a way out: an “off ramp” would lead nowhere. The longer Putin stays in power the likelier there is no way out for Russia, too. Putin will probably wind up destroying RUssia. Let’s hope, for the sake of Russia itself, that Putin’s own people will kill him first.
Chairman Xi Jinping declared China and Russia to have a “no-limits” “no-matter-what” partnership. Xi Jinping? May I say?Maybe, just maybe, you should pick better partners.
Xi Jinping’s foolish declaration of a “no limits” “no matter what” “partnership” with Russia makes it appear, to Western eyes, like Xi committed China to help Russia.
However:
Xi Jinping is NOT committed to helping Russia!
Just because Xi’s partnership with Putin has “no limits”, and thus either partner could do anything to support or aid the other doesn’t mean either partner will do anything to help the other!
Xi Jinping committed himself to nothing! Xi Jinping merely indicated everything is possible and thus can abandon his (not China’s) “no limits” “no matter what” Partner any time he wishes to.
War criminal Russia makes China look bad because Putin is not only a war criminal he is also incompetent. China should stab Russia in the back repeatedly. China can do so since Xi Jinping’s relationship with Putin is personal, not political. Xi’s statements are not a binding legal treaty between states. Xi Jinping’s statements are merely non-binding personal assurances between two individuals who happen to be heads of state. So…
Sino-American Negotiations in Practice: Secretary of State Blinken’s Trip to Beijing
Secretary of State Blinken’s Trip to Beijing is anticipated circa 18 June, This entire issue is about laying out possibilities so Beijing and Washington make no mistakes. Their smooth coordination is a necessary pre-condition to the quickest, least costly, and correct (正确) resolution of Russia’s ongoing war crime. The least bloody solution to the ongoing Russian war-crime is also the solution which has the USA and China relating to each other in a fashion optimal or at least acceptable to both China and the USA.
我祝您好运正确和开口的谈判!
Taiwan, Taiwan, 台湾 !
Indicted criminal defendant Trump once famously said “China, China, China!”
The key issue facing China and the USA is Taiwan, Taiwan, 台湾. Let’s not fuck this up, like we fucked up Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Egypt, the list goes on and yeah, Ukraine. If the USA hadn’t fucked up Iraq then Russia would not have dared invade. For about a month the USA hesitated and was indecisive. China helped pull American bacon out of the frying pan in the Spring of 2022. I don’t blab.
Why did China aid Ukraine, by not helping Russia?
Hedging. China wants to win no matter what.
Self-consistency: China declared it was taking no sides and wanted peace, which is in fact the case. People feel compelled to behave consistently with their statements and self-image, their identity. This constrains them in negotiations.
For Ideological reasons. China, unlike some Germans or even Frenchmen, would be unhappy to see the Ukrainians and Russians exterminate each other both because of China’s ideology, which seeks to build global common prosperity among the under-developed countries,
Economic reasons: You can’t sell anything to dead people. The war is disrupting the markets for grain and hydrocarbons. War is bad for business. Myths about war-as-business are wrong. Military industries as a general rule are not drivers of wars.
China, like France and Germany would profit from cheap Russian oil and cheap Ukrainian oil, but is far from Europe. Military concerns or past conflicts in Europe are of no concern to China: Killing off the slavs just is not in China’s interests. If Russia and Ukraine made peace somehow tomorrow China would be thrilled and so would the CCP. Unfortunately, that will not happen.
Neither side will “negotiate” or “compromise” and thus it is a war to the death.
Although China could profit from Russia’s ongoing war-crime in Ukraine, profiteering from war doesn’t match up with China’s ideal of global peace through common prosperity.I BEGGED China to persuade Russia not to attack, and also begged China not to aid Russia if it attacked before the war even started. This is a bold claim but it is one I can prove.
Knowing languages empowers!For Realpolitik Reasons: Although China has no desire to see Hitler’s genocide of the slavs continued by the slavs themselves, China does have an interest in seeing Russia enfeebled or even split apart into its constituent republics as I advocate ought be done, just like happened to that other genocidal war-criminal dictatorship, nazi Germany. Making vassal states out of what used to be the Russian Federation is in fact in China’s interests. So, splitting up Russia, denuclearizing Russia, and stripping Russia of its U.N. Veto are all attainable realistic goals acceptable to the USA and China.
Power Couple Time!
How to get there?
Saul Alinsky was right when he argued in Rules for Radicals that radicals shoul Hold your opponent to their ideals: make your opponent keep promises your opponent made. They will often be unable to and then look weak and in any case are constrained to predictable actions thereby.
When China claims to want common global prosperity — agree! “We want that too!” and “How can WE get there together?” should be golden words which fall repeatedly from Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s lips!!
The fact that political negotiations in peacetime are possible on the basis of common desires and cooperation shows again why politics is not war and war is not business. In war, the opponents do everything possible to inconvenience each other, which is the opposite of cooperation or negotiation. In war, the fundamental goals of each contender, to destroy and kill each other, are entirely incompatible. This is partly what Mao meant when he said “revolution is not an invite to a dinner party… it is an act of violence”. “革命不是请客吃饭,不是做文章,不是绘画绣花,不能那样雅致,那样从容不迫,文质彬彬,那样温良恭俭让。革命是暴动,是一个阶级推翻一个阶级的暴烈的行动。” Exactly this is why politics isn’t war. Politics is an invitation to a literal dinner party as part of negotiations. It is very much like writing an essay, painting a picture. The political, especially diplomacy, is refined and kind. Negotiating with people and killing them are fundamentally very different. Westerners, usually wannabes, who confuse war with economics or politics craft in consequence disastrous foreign and security policies as shown by 20 years of U.S. foreign policy failure after failure. Chinese don’t seem to make that mistake which explains why they are better at getting what they want without fighting.
What the USA Can Get
Swag. Lots of cheap Chinese swag. Idk if you want it, but you can mos def get it.
Secret promises not to invade Taiwan or any place else for that matter. China doesn’t want to invade Taiwan — especially if it can get what it wants without invasion. Most especially when yu gentlie remind them that the Galtieri dictatorship collapsed exactly because it invaded yet failed to conquer the Falkland islands. The party’s desire for self-preservation combined with its desire to cultivate the Chinese people wherever they may be mean China will only invade Taiwan with great regret and only where victory would be swift and certain. You know, like in a three day long special military operation. Russia’s failure in Ukraine is also a warning to China.
As much support for Ukraine as the USA is willing to pay for, preferably in secret, with such secrets subject to the China’s right to divulge such agreements when and how China wishes. Yes, China will want to rub their boot in Russia’s face. They haven’t forgotten about Khruschev’s betrayal or Russian conquest and colonization of Chinese territories.
Full Cooperation in suppressing illegal narcotics trade, including precursors. You will have to insist and push but must do so.
Cooperation in: anti-piracy, disaster relief, preventing and suppressing terrorism (especially if the U.S. does most all the fighting), though China is in fact the largest U.N. peacekeeper. You can thus get cooperation on peacekeeping.
None of it is free: the Chinese are hard bargainers!
What the USA Can’t Get
You probably can’t get rid of the CCP. You probably wouldn’t like the results if you did.
You can’t get things from China and expect to get rid of Xi Jinping.
If you try to oust Xi or the CCP you will get nothing, or worse.
What China Can Get
Secret promises that the USA will not recognize Taiwan de jure.
Pro-tip? Chinese people love the idea of knowing more than others. Most people love secrets but can’t keep them. Chinese are better at keeping secrets than you (by far…) and love secrets even more than most. This applies to individuals, families, businesses, The Party. One of the most basic pledges of CCP members is to guard party secrets. Oh? Did I swear an oath of secrecy? Maybe! Who’s askin’?Promises of protection of overseas Chinese, whether citizens of the USA, legal residents, or undocumented.
Promises of non-persecution of Chinese migrants, whether documented or not. These could be made into legally binding agreements.
You probably haven’t noticed: China views the overseas Chinese as Chinese.Promises of guaranteed supplies of energy, i.e. promises not to cause a hydrocarbons boycott against China. China is heavily energy dependent.
Promises of continued economic trade and investment, which can include bi-lateral treaties on trade and/or investment.
What China Can’t Get
Promises of non-intervention:
If China attacks the Diao Yu/Senkaku islands, Quemoy, Taiwan the USA will go to war against the Chinese government to defend those territories.
Neither China nor the USA have attempted to elaborate a legal regime for the integration of Taiwan into China.Aid to Russia in its ongoing war-crime.
Maybe there are foolish or ignorant or overly-cautious factions in the CCP who imagine giving Russia military aid of any form to be other than a horrible idea. Just like China can’t and won’t tolerate a U.S. de jure recognition of Taiwan as a independent country, nor can get away with trying to over-throw the CCP and/or Xi Jinping, China cannot realistically expect to get anything other than economic warfare and a new cold war out of aiding Russia militarily. We can’t stop you from arming Russia but we can make you bitterly regret fostering inter-proletarian warfare.
Russia’s war on Ukraine is an attack on a proletarian country. Marxists, Leninists, Stalinists, Maoists, maybe even Trotskyite scum, have no choice but to oppose both sides and to end the war by any means as quickly as possible. China’s desire to trade peacefully with Russia is comprehensible and in peacetime could be nothing I could oppose. This is not peacetime. This is a time of war, and the most vicious war waged by the ultimate class traitors and mass murderers on the masses who simply want to live, work, trade, and if possible prosper? Why can’t we have nice things?
Because Putin really is a thug, a thief, a war criminal and thus the enemy of all humanity!
Give Putin proletarian justice. I take personal responsibility for calling the shots on this one. Justice by any means necessary.
义
Binding? How?
China and the USA can, and in my opinion should, negotiate binding bi-lateral treaties an executive agreements to make their views and obligations mutually clear and legally binding. We can all live so much better than the shit parade clown Putin is doling out.
Why you might prefer the CCP after all…
You know? Through most of history China has been wracked by civil war after war, these wars generally causing and then interrupted by famine. War after war, famine after famine, and desperate scholars trying to escape that cycle or at least avoid its worst effects. The CCP did in fact go to great lengths to end corrupt, greedy, deadly, warlord China and replaced it with something so much better. Maybe give the other fella credit for what he got right for once? Maybe show some fucking gratitude for all that god damned cheap ass swag you swilled for the past 30 years?
You may hate me for pointing it out, but all the CCP has to do to legitimate itself in the eyes of Chinese people is point out what it replaced. Maybe something like this.
The alternative to the iron will of the dreaded people’s party is a return to warlord China, with its constant corruption, consequent poverty, and ceaseless famine. We are the only force keeping you from cheating, robbing, and even killing each other! Now do as we say, it really is for your own good.
In short:
“A Common Power to keep them all in Awe”-Hobbes
And for the few who might disagree or disbelieve, the party only need point out all the high speed railways, the new subways, and all those motor vehicles. China has gone from one of the world’s poorest countries to one of the world’s richer ones in the space of just … 30 years, at most 50. That’s unparalleled in human history.
The CCP claims to be the only and best force to maintain peace among the Chinese people.
What if they are right?
Are you really sure you want rid of the CCP? You want a return to yet another Chinese civil war? Lots of dead people (millions) and no production? How do more famines sound? Do you really want that? Because Putin proves: Sow the wind? Reap the whirlwind.
What the USA should do
Ditch “strategic ambiguity”. It’s a very stupid policy. It invites the other guy to push the limits. It makes you look weak, wishy-washy, like a commitment phobe, in short: a no balls. You don’t want to look like a no balls in China.
Strategic ambiguity is the opposite of clear deterrent signalling. It makes war likelier because it makes miscalculation likelier. Deterrence works. The Taiwan Relations Act makes it entirely clear that the USA will defend Taiwan if Taiwan were ever invaded. This needs to be reiterated.
Make unambiguously clear that the USA will in fact intervene with military force if China attacks Senkakus, Taiwan, Quemoy and Matsu as well as in Taiwan in the event China were to try to kill Chinese people living in those places.
Commit to no de jure recognition of Taiwan in exchange for Chinese commitment to never invade Taiwan. This is not a big ask, we are literally asking Chinese people not to kill other Chinese people. Such promises may be secret or open, as treaties or non-binding. These commitments should be secret since the USA and China both face stupid and ignorant domestic nationalists who push policies which are against their own interests. Ultra nationalists took power in Germany in 1933 and dragged all the other Germans to hell, and many more non-Germans too. Disempowering the ultra-nationalists is a smart play for Beijing and D.C.
Commit to a principle that the more China cooperates with the USA on security issues the more the USA will cooperate with China economically. These must be a political not legal relation since it is impossible to predict the next terrorist incident, coup, civil war, or pirate attack or whether China will in fact keep its end of an open-ended non-treaty bargain, a non-binding political agreement. The USA and China can trade security and economic cooperation and it is in their mutual interest to do so. China has not suffered a single war in 40 years, thanks to the USA. China wishes to venture out into the wild world of terrorists, pirates, proxy wars, an invasions? Didn’t work out so well for Russia. I suspect Chinese people prefer weddings and festivals to funerals and burning ghost money. The more China helps the USA aid Ukraine, the more the USA should reward China economically with trade an investment and/or politically with greater Chinese influence on what will soon be the ex Russian Federation.
Only if China does not cooperate with the USA on security issues might the USA seek to remove Xi Jinping and/or the CCP from power.
The USA can foster voluntary Chinese legal initiatives to encourage formation of rule of law, improved democracy, and real attainment of human rights if China wishes.
In these senses we may then see China as militarily contained yet economically unconstrained. This is a win-win situation for China, the USA, Europe, and Ukraine.
What should not be negotiated or even discussed:
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, U.S. pre-positioning of supplies in Taiwan.
We may or may not depending on China’s actions.
I’m not going there, someone else is more expert.
Israel? Iran? Saudi Arabia? Here there be dragons!
Word of the Day: 揭底
Lit.: Uncover the truth, Révéler la vérité, Descubrir la verdad, Die Wahrheit aufdecken, Paljastama tõde, Раскрыть правду, Розкрити правду. 揭底
Fig.: to enlighten, éclairer, iluminar, aufklären, valgustama, просвітлювати, просвещать, 啟迪.
News.
federal inmate 24965-111 soon to be joined by a mafia don…
Sometimes people ask me about English grammar.
It would be wonderful if the grown ups would behave.
That’s probably too much to hope for.
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