As Predicted Here:
Deep strikes within Russia itself during the next year will occur and recur as a reaction against Putin's ongoing war crime. This is both to cripple Putin's war and to maintain and improve Ukrainian morale. Ukraine will claw back local air parity, then national air parity and local air supremacy, and finally will have air supremacy over all Ukraine and impose air parity in Russia itself.
Economic Warfare
This is wrong, but it is a useful foil to explain: Putin pumps cash into his economy how? By printing money, and incurring debt. Who are his creditors? They may recall Russia defaulted on its bonds only 20 years ago. Chinese people know Russia is a bad investment. Why invest in it when you will take it all for free after the collapse! The reason the USA can borrow more and far more cheaply than Russia is because it is a better investment and has never defaulted on its debt. And what is the result of printing up lots of money and pretending you have foreign creditors? The result of printing lots of money is inflation. The result of driving all your young men into graves or out of the country is: no new children and no workers, in other words economic and social collapse. This will mean that China will buy more Russian oil but at even lower prices! The Russian economy will grind to a halt, and this can already be seen from the fact that Russians are no longer buying Chinese cars -- they cannot afford them.
Inflation stimulates growth for about 9-18 months certainly no more than 24 months after that much time the rubes notice prices increase constantly, demand wage increases, and so the formation of capital is scuppered -- why save in an inflationary economy? Moreover, the allocation of capital is also distorted! Pre-inflation long term contracts are favored by the inflation, but post inflation contracts are hammered hard, this is especially the case where the fact of inflation is known but how much % inflation will occur is not, and those circumstances obtain in the corrupt, criminal, secretive, fraudulent conditions which characterize the Russian economy.
A long series of quantitative changes (economic stagnation, constant casualties) eventually result in a sudden unexpected qualitative change. (Political coup and revolution). That is a basic proposition of dialectical materialism. Oh, but a catalyst can at times, probably exceptionally, be introduced, which hastens the qualitative transformation from one state into another state. Hi, motherfuckers! How the hell are you?
Reminder: I have already pointed out, Iran will be encircled with proxy wars. I predict Iran will lose these proxy wars, will wind up involved directly in a war or wars and the result will be a revolution in Iran. Were I the CCP I would start building fraternal mass organizations and pre-parties in Iran.
Just because I don't play for money does not mean I am an economic idiot. In fact, knowing the rest of you are addicted to toys means that by understanding how to condition your access to toys in the event some of you decided to play with exploding toys that make people bleed, well, herding greedy people isn't difficult. This is one of the reasons it is possible to out calculate ones opponent: most of them are fixated on the wrong target. I did a tax law degree and took courses in economics, and carefully studied economic wars waged by the Third Reich and the United States. Though: I play for Blood, not money. And I play to win.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oil-hubs-baltic-sea-ukraine-drone-attacks-1863079
Russia Stands to Lose Billions as Ukraine Drones Target Key Oil Hubs, https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oil-hubs-baltic-sea-ukraine-drone-attacks-1863079 by Isabel van Brugen , Newsweek
Advice:
Quickest way to win the wars? Wreck the Russian and Iranian oil industries. I predict the Russian oil industry will be destroyed, whether through pipeline sabotage, drone strikes on tanks, or strikes on tankers carrying Russian fuel. I really don't care how I win, though I want my victory to be as quick and bloodles as possible for your sake. 90% or more of you just want peace and prosperity. Too bad there are kleptocrats and criminals who think they can bully you out of your prosperity. That, by the way, is the Other side! Now kindly do as I advise. Destroy the Russian oil industry. Just spare Chinese people and China.
Russia delenda est.
China
should support the USA as it can because Putin's crazy plan is wrecking the world economy and that will destabilize the CCP as well as undermining China's goal of building global prosperity to build Chinese wealth.
Hint.
As Advised Here:
Caveat, it may be "controlled opposition". So, view skeptically.
Ufa is the capitol of Bashkortistan…
Expect more. Iran's crazy clowns are going to keep playing stupid games and will win more stupid prizes.
Reminder: I have already pointed out, Iran will be encircled with proxy wars.
Prediction:
I predict Iran will lose these proxy wars, will wind up involved directly in a war or wars and the result will be a revolution in Iran. Were I the CCP I would start building fraternal mass organizations and pre-parties in Iran.
As Predicted Here:
A War in All but Name Simmers at Israel-Lebanon Border: Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah inches closer to an all-out conflict, prompting residents on both sides to flee
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-border-lebanon-hezbollah-conflict-4565ee12 by Walker, Keller-Lynn ()(if their pay wall bugs you just click the blue triangle listen button)
I don't want to be right about my blood soaked predictions. I would prefer to live in a world of peace and flowers and happy people. However, the paths I am proposing really are the least destructive in human and economic terms. You don't have to believe me or do as I advise, but it will go better for you if you do. Moreover: I win either way. Every war is won or lost before the first shot is fired, and it is won by the side which calculated better. Outmaneuvering corrupt drunks is easy.
Leadership By Example
is the most effective leadership.
Westmoreland:
O that we now had here
But one ten thousand of those men in England
That do no work to-day!
King:
What's he that wishes so?
My cousin, Westmoreland? No, my fair cousin;
If we are mark'd to die, we are enow
To do our country loss; and if to live,
The fewer men, the greater share of honour.
God's will! I pray thee, wish not one man more.
By Jove, I am not covetous for gold,
Nor care I who doth feed upon my cost;
It yearns me not if men my garments wear;
Such outward things dwell not in my desires.
But if it be a sin to covet honour,
I am the most offending soul alive.
No, faith, my coz, wish not a man from England.
God's peace! I would not lose so great an honour
As one man more methinks would share from me
For the best hope I have. O, do not wish one more!
Rather proclaim it, Westmoreland, through my host,
That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
We would not die in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to die with us.
This day is call'd the feast of Crispian.
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam'd,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say "To-morrow is Saint Crispian."
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say "These wounds I had on Crispin's day."
Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words—
Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester—
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.