Ukraine’s Zelenskiy declared world champion of two Stones soup: Traded rocks for javelins, javelins for IFVs, IFVs for Tanks, Tanks for Jets. Ukraine will win. After the war: Ukraine will probably trade jets for proton rockets and proton rockets for invisibility and invisibility for time travel. Jokes aside: when Ukraine starts producing proton rockets for satellite launches after it’s inevitable victory I will say, once again: why am I not surprised?
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/19/world/europe/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia.html
US signals to allies it won’t block their export of F-16 jets to Ukraine
Biden tells G7 allies the US will support joint F-16 training effort for Ukrainians
U.S. and its allies plan to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, official says
You can do what the nice polite man in the suit says,
or else we send out the death squads & car bombs.
If the content interests you may wish to
The Chinese actually believes in their ideals and soft power goals. They are thus much more powerful than you imagine them to be but in different ways than you imagine. Chinese power is generally exercized in the “grey zone” between war and peace as “political warfare”. Chinese influence, soft power, is more effective and greater than Chinese power “hard power”. Unlike imperial Japan in the 1930s, China does not prioritize military power, political influence is more important to the Chinese Communist Party than military power, in part because to Chinese strategists resort to war is the failure to attain political goals at lowest cost. See: Sun Tzu, Art of War. Supreme excellence in the art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. Sun Tzu teaches us that in war we must preserve our own forces while destroying or, better, seizing the enemy's resources. Mao teaches that we ought be aggressive strategically, yet defensive tactically. We should attack, attack, and attack our enemies strategically, yet evade their forces tactically unless we have overwhelming local superiority. Our strategy is one grand global coalition with a truly global mission of transforming the planet for the betterment of all and common prosperity for all people and people’s. Our tactics: countless shadow struggles, many illusions, few explosions. Our strategy is and must be aggressive. But our tactics, unless we have overwhelming local superiority, must be defensive. Each explosion in Ukraine is a tragedy: a necessary tragedy. Lying thieves and murderers’ of the world’s poorest will not stop unless forced to stop.
One of my peers regards Kissinger as opportunist. Still, you may find Kissinger’s views inertestring. Kissinger is certainly “flexible”; dynamism is, but so is opportunism.
https://www.economist.com/kissinger-transcript
I think Kissinger was right about China until at least 1980 but was wrong about China since 1990 and that by 2000 one ought to have been certain: 1989 and also 1996 straights crisis. Despite this they sought to build the economy of the literal dictatorship. They thought such would lead to less desperation and risk of war, which may be true. They naively imagined it would lead China to Western style liberal democracy.
I opposed Kissinger, earlier, and overtly, when he argued to throw Ukraine under the bus. But he changed his mind. He now correctly supports China’s efforts at mediation, but I expect China’s efforts, sadly, to fail. Chinese envoy says Ukraine, Russia must ‘start with themselves’ to create space for peace talks Note: START was a s.trategic a.rms r.eduction t.reaty.
Kissinger undertook unpopular but necessary policies in various conflicts around the world to support the long term interests of the United States.
What matters is figuring out what is the correct strategy and tactics for right now. I don't regard Kissinger as an opportunist. He is however flexible. His stated goal is to safeguard the long term interests of the United States. I take him in earnest, maybe that's stupid of me. He clearly fostered China long after that was a wise policy. We might help China, but not to our own detriment.
China’s Status Anxiety: Beijing Fights to Be Treated as America’s Equal on the World Stage
CHINA CENTRAL ASIA SUMMIT one guess who wasn’t invited
And here we see a giant panda, eating some other bear’s lunch…
Just in case it isn’t obvious in Chinese with Russian subtitles; oh look! As I predicted China is extending its influence into the ex USSR, eating Russia’s lunch. 加油!Here’s the English subtitled version.
Looks like our beloved all-you can eat Chinese buffet! Lunch!
Note: the translations are in fact accurate.
In case you prefer English: Lunchie! :)
Since we’re DEFINITELY eating Russia’s lunch I guess we kneed a pocketknife!
Russia-has-lost-50k-scientists-in-5-years
NUCLEAR ARMS STRATEGY
I still think Putin (Russia) can't (won’t) go nuclear.
Moscow elites oppose the war. Everyone knows its a failure. Everyone is positioning for "after Putin..."
Putin knows a nuclear strike order would lead to his assassination.
Even if it didn't
many Russian rockets will not launch
of those that do, many will fail to navigate to target
of those that do, some will not explode
some would get shot down or otherwise interdicted (navigational interference)
China doesn't want Russia to use nuclear weapons
China might invade Russia if it were to use nuclear weapons.
If Putin were to imagine he or Russia would survive a nuclear strike order he would be wrong. Look at how many countries oppose him. Several of them could kill Putin, one way or other, no?
US-China-rivalry-american-troops-access-Papua-New-Guinea-ports-airports-new-security-pact
Chinese video about Japanese aircraft carrier
Analysis: Deterrence Theory (Abschreckungstheorie)
Clear deterrrent signalling prevents war. The objective of an effective deterrence is to make it clear that even in the worst case scenario that the war is lost, nonetheless the defeated will inflict so many casualties and damages on their opponent as to make costs of the war, in human and financial terms, greater than any possible benefits of victory in the war. Thus, even comparatively weak States can make their defeat too costly to their opponent that the opponent does not dare attack. This is exactly Singapore’s tactic: to make conquest so costly to any invader they dare not attack. Problem is, surprise attacks greatly augment the attackers chances of victory and may even reduce the attacker’s casualties. This is why deterrence must be not only credible but also demands constant vigilance. It also explains why intelligence sharing among allies is helpful to the entire alliance.
An alliance makes it members stronger together than they would have been individually due to network effects such as increased efficiency of production, better use of resources, more accurate and timely awareness of threats. This is why open source intelligence can and does play an important role in national security. Alliances also make it impossible for the Hitlers and Putins to “pick off the weaklings” and “level up” before their usually doomed attempt to “beat the final boss”. This explains Hitler’s Putin: first Chechnya, then Georgia, then Ukraine; Moldova would have been next, then perhaps Finland, since it was not yet in the NATO alliance, then perhaps the Baltics or Poland.
Unfortunately, U.S. strategists are no good at opponent modelling (“red teaming”) and consistently fail at accurately projecting themselves into the Chinese position, mentally speaking. It may seem strange to U.S. strategists, but the China looks at Japan’s shiny new aircraft carriers and does not only see them as deterrence. China is also asking itself two questions:
Could China defeat Japan in a war between only China and Japan? The USA doesn’t seem to be overtly modelling this scenario, which I suppose they must at least privately model. The risk of a Sino-Japanese war explains much of their arms racing. A related question to this is: in the event of victory in war, could China somehow acquire Japan’s aircraft carriers or other arms? What you see as a deterrent threat, the other fella’ might see and seize as war booty, trophies. Don’t believe me? Just ask the Taliban… This leads to Chinese strategists’ second question:
Could China flip Japan and make a Chinese-Japanese alliance against the USA? This is a possibility the other US strategists don’t even consider, but see it from China’s perspective. After all, Japan fought a war against the USA back in 1945. China also fought a war against the USA just ten years later, in 1954! Moreover, there is a great deal more cultural affinity between China and Japan as compared to the USA and China! If I were in Beijing I would be trying to split the USA and Japan, to make Japan at least neutral or even build an actual co-prosperity sphere.
However, Chinese strategists fail to accurately assess enmity between the USA and Japan (I shall not say how). Chinese misapprehension of the US-Japanese relationship, and especially China’s opaque, secretive Leninist conspiratorial elite vanguard party system, make any alliance between China and Japan impossible. There is simply no trust, inadequate communication, and that despite linguistic affinities. China probably will not be able to even “merely” make Japan into a neutral and/or pacifist State, despite Japan having been pacifist from circa 1950-2000.
China is militarily over-matched and will be contained militarily. However, it is unlikely China will be economically contained. Though, as China focuses on internal circulation and Western countries decouple China’s economic growth will slow down, but not collapse, in my opinion.
Analysis: Belt and Road Initiative
Barons: China Is Bailing Out Its Bad Bets, and Handing the West a Geopolitical Opening That’s not a bug: it’s a feature.
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) makes sense for China because if the investment pays the loan back kaching! profit! And if it defaults China just repossesses its next military base. In between, whether bribed up or not, the locals and their politicos wind up closer to China. China is trying to build an infrastructure network for development, to build up it’s own alliance and trade partners. Not to mention China can post workers overseas (rubric “posted workers”). Oh, and the big propaganda kicker? “We helped you end extreme poverty, all those white people didn’t…” draw your own conclusions.
Although Anglo-Americans might imagine being able to bring India into an anti-China coalition, China appears to be of the opinion they cannot.
China-to-boycott-g20-meeting-in-Kashmir
decoding-chinas-counter-espionage-crackdown
Work on French AND Chinese at the same time! Belle!
Work on German and Chinese at the same time. Cross training is useful after B1.
Everyone must purge their past sins, somehow, lest they go to a place called hell.
USAID-chief-goes-to Chad-meet-Sudanese-refugees
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