Financial Intelligence

Oct 20, 2025

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Intelligence Concerns.

The biggest market mover isn’t market makers, those large inside traders and market manipulators executing algorithmic trades, literally timed by milliseconds. The biggest market movers are exogenous events such as wars, famines, pandemics, earthquakes, volcanoes. All of these are usually greeted as unexpected. They are “game changers”. Some of these are micro level and only influence one business or business sector. Others are broader macro-level and influence the market as a whole. However, some of them, namely the ones to do with war, are somewhat or even very predictable. United Airlines and American Airlines were both shorted, unlike other airline stocks, by very many market actors prior to 9/11: an outsized market move. Guess why? Someone very intelligent might want to trace back all those actors who “shorted”… I directly tell my friends in the Chinese Communist Party that Trump’s tariff maneuvers are largely designed to cause market instability so his cronies can profit from going short and long appropriately. They don’t disagree.

My own specialization is war in all its aspects but particularly with a view to deterrence in peace; and death, destruction, and victory in war. As we can see in Ukraine my methods, though distasteful, are effective.

Currently, the most important exogenous market risk is the US-China relationship.