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Covert International Action: Syria isn't Hong Kong

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CHINESE VOCABULARY COGNATES

SYRIA: Coups, Revolutions, & Statecraft

The choice between intervention or restraint has always been fraught with moral, practical, and political dilemmas. In the Arab world these choices are particularly acute in the context of coups and revolution as instruments of foreign intervention. They are frankly illegal, yet not unheard of.

Regarding Syria, we should all be very glad Assad is gone. Initially, I advocated for restraint and compromise in addressing the Syrian regime. Yet, as the criminal character of Bashar al-Assad— "Chemical Bashar"—became undeniable, my stance evolved. Covertly and quietly, I supported and pushed for his overthrow, not out of ideological zeal but out of necessity. He left his enemies no choice. Telegraphing when and where you plant o hit is a suckers’ play. So is blabbygabby.

Coups and Revolutions are Two Edged Swords

Fostering foreign coups and revolutions can, exceptionally, be effective tools of statecraft. They possess the power to dismantle entrenched regimes and catalyze transformative change - or to unleash unending chaos. They are also decidedly unfriendly acts, illegal under international law, and replete with serious risks that can easily lead to unintended consequences. The two edged character of such policies demands due care and consideration aforethought.

Democracy and the rule of law remain the superior systems of governance, fostering stability and protecting individual freedoms. Thus, coups and revolutions should only be advocated or undertaken only when strictly necessary—when no other viable alternative exists. This was the case in Damascus and is the case in Moscow, but is not the case in Beijing, which explains some of those policies I can discuss.

The neoconservative strategies of the early 21st century are the negative example why we must be terribly careful, yet resolute and decisive regarding covert action generally: the fact that liberals are blabbermouths is only one more reason I hate them, and another reason they must be trammeled. Their blabby mouths get the wrong people killed.

Regarding the neocons, who clearly lacked strategic acumen as well as basic operational security, I publicly criticized their approach from the very start, torturing their way through the Arab world was really fucking stupid, for just one of the more obvious examples of their idiocy. Because their strategy was unrealistic and incoherent, attacking everything everywhere at once, instead of proceeding systematically and coherenltly with structured discipline their efforts were doomed, and cost the republic Three Trillion Dollars. The results were entirely foreseeable, Whitehall knew, and the neocons inevitable failure was also evident by the fact the goals they sought were impossible. “Nation building” —by invasions; trying to transform patriarchal, agricultural, and deeply religious societies into Western-style liberal democracies secularism, women's liberation, and gay rights was a fools errand. Afghanistan is not Sweden. All that doomed the neocons neocrusade right from the start. They ignored the cultural, social, and economic realities of the nations targeted. The unpredictable nature of war compounded their failure after failure leading to the debacles in Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine and elsewhere. Ukraine will win, but at what cost? War could have been avoided not with appeasement but by resolute action in Afghanistan and Donbas. Chances there were, but the neocons baleful boastful stupidity still beguiled some — just not in Whitehall.

The Limits and Necessities of War

War, whether overt or covert, should always be a last resort. This is not merely humane it is prudent, practical. War is not only deadly it is also unpredictable, difficult to terminate, and “long wars” are economic disasters, as three trillion dollars wasted proves.

Thus, defensive wars, rather than aggressive ones, are more likely to succeed because they are grounded in the necessity of self-preservation rather than ambition and are also likelier to attract support from neutrals and allies alike: no one likes aggressors.

Neoconservative regime-change strategies failed not only because they were unrealistic but also because they underestimated the inherent chaos and violence of war. Sun Tzu himself rightly pointed out that no “long war” ever benefitted any ruler, for war is costly and, it bears repeating, unpredictable and tough to terminate. Moreover, effective military action requires secrecy, deception, and concentrated force on specific, achievable objectives. Neocons were incapable of this, as shown by their haphazard failed interventions everywhere-all-at-once approach.

Others, as seen in Syria, are more effective. These same forces will work to deadly effect against the Putin regime. We should cheer such forces on. I have very clearly stated exactly how the Moscow mafia will be dismantled and reduced to Muscovy.

Lessons from Assad and Beyond

The fall of Bashar al-Assad is a reminder of the brutal and often uncertain outcomes of overthrowing autocrats. While his removal was necessary and ultimately beneficial for Syria and the broader region, it came at a tremendous cost and took about 13 years. As we look to other autocratic regimes, namely Vladimir Putin's in Russia, similar lessons apply. Publicly, I have supported Putin's ouster while publicly opposing a similar stance toward Xi Jinping in China. This divergence reflects not inconsistency but a nuanced understanding of geopolitical realities, the different challenges and risks each represents.

The collapse of Putin’s regime is both inevitable and necessary. Ukraine’s strategy, employing deep strikes on Russian oil and war industries while maintaining an elastic defense trading territory for lives is winning. This strategy minimizes Ukrainian casualties while maximizing Russian losses, leveraging Ukraine’s better leadership, superior training, and greater mobility. The resulting economic collapse and internal dissent will hasten Putin’s downfall. He shall meet the same fate as Assad — or worse.

The Future of Statecraft

Broadcasting one’s strategy, particularly in matters of war, is rarely prudent. War is inherently violent, and secrecy and deception are its inevitable companions. Yet, there is room for cautious optimism. The removal of Assad demonstrates that even the most entrenched regimes can be overthrown. Similarly, we can hope for a future in which durable peace is achieved between Israel and its Arab neighbors—a goal the Trump administration pursued, albeit imperfectly, and shall pursue even further now that one of the problems is gone.

Ultimately, the fates of Assad is a harbinger. It reminds us of the brittle and rigid character of autocratic regimes consequent to their secrecy, censorship, and extremism. That highlights the real potential for revolutionary change, even in the most challenging circumstances. However, it also underscores the need for a judicious approach to coups, revolutions, and war—one that prioritizes necessity, realism, and the ultimate goal of fostering a better and more just world.

Putin is doomed. Xi Jinping is not. מְנֵה מְנֵה תְּקֵל וּפַרְשִׁין

Xi Jinping’s & Hong Kong (Round 2)

Xi Jinping’s leadership has significantly altered China’s economic trajectory, particularly in the realm of capital markets. While I don’t subscribe to capitalist orthodoxy, it’s clear that his approach has reshaped Hong Kong’s role as a global financial hub—and not for the better. This shift aligns with his broader strategy to centralize financial power in Shanghai, a move that has implications not only for China’s internal economic structure but also for its international financial standing.

The Decline of Hong Kong as a Financial Magnet

Hong Kong’s appeal as a capital magnet has waned under policies that prioritize political control over market freedom. This isn’t surprising. By tightening the reins on political expression and instituting measures that discourage free capital flow, Beijing has undermined the very qualities that made Hong Kong a unique financial hub. The city’s decline in this regard isn’t just collateral damage; it’s consistent with Xi’s broader vision to make Shanghai China’s financial center of gravity.

But even Shanghai, with its relative dynamism, faces an uncertain future. As capital markets flourish, they naturally demand openness and predictability—qualities that clash with the central government’s penchant for control. Should Shanghai’s liberal tendencies grow, it too might find itself under restrictive policies, leaving Beijing to promote another city, perhaps even Beijing itself, as the next financial hub. The cycle of control and relocation risks eroding China’s overall attractiveness to global capital.

Capital Controls and Their Consequences

China’s strict capital controls—whether enforced de facto or de jure—are a double-edged sword. While they shield the economy from volatile outflows, they also deter foreign investment, particularly when paired with restrictive policies on political expression. Investors thrive on transparency, stability, and the assurance that profits can be repatriated. When these are absent, the result is predictable: capital dries up, and economic growth slows.

Interestingly, this isn’t necessarily an economic crisis for China. The country’s economy is vast and diverse enough to withstand reduced foreign investment in the short term. However, in the long term, the combination of capital controls and political restrictions could stifle innovation, entrepreneurship, and the inflow of expertise—all critical for sustained growth.

A Path Forward? Special Economic Zones and Sovereign Wealth Funds

If Xi Jinping hopes to maintain China’s appeal to foreign capital, a recalibration of policy is essential. One potential move could be the establishment of a new version of "special economic zones" (SEZs), which would allow for more market-oriented policies in designated areas. These zones could serve as safe havens for foreign capital while adhering to broader national objectives.

Alternatively, China could focus on creating a robust sovereign wealth fund designed to attract foreign investors. Such a fund could offer reinvestment options within China, ensuring that profits generated are channeled back into the domestic economy. This would provide a controlled yet appealing avenue for global investors while aligning with China’s long-term economic goals.

Secondary Contradictions & the Hope of Hong Kong

Of course, challenges remain. How will China manage its real estate market to attract foreign investment without destabilizing its economy? How will it reconcile the competing demands of European investors, Southeast Asian stakeholders, and domestic priorities? These are secondary contradictions that require nuanced solutions.

Through it all, I remain hopeful for Hong Kong. The city’s dynamic creativity have been its defining features, and with the right conditions, its people can continue to thrive, even in the face of significant challenges. While Xi Jinping’s policies may have reshaped the financial landscape, Hong Kong's spirit and determination ensure its potential for future success.

Word of the Day

Word of the Day: Neural Network (large language and large vision model a.i. these days is almost always driven by transformers based on neural network methods, not rule based expert systems)

1. English: Neural Network

2. French: Réseau de neurones (pronounced "reh-soh duh nuh-rohn") Sample sentence: "The company uses a neural network to analyze customer data." Translation: "L'entreprise utilise un réseau de neurones pour analyser les données des clients."

3. Spanish: Red neuronal (pronounced "rehd neh-oo-rah-nal") Sample sentence: "The neural network is used in image recognition software." Translation: "La red neuronal se utiliza en software de reconocimiento de imágenes."

4. German: Neuronales Netzwerk (pronounced "nay-roh-nah-les netz-vurk") Sample sentence: "The neural network is trained on a large dataset." Translation: "Das neuronale Netzwerk wird auf einer großen Datenmenge trainiert."

5. Estonian: Neuronvõrk (pronounced "neh-oo-rohn-vurk") Sample sentence: "The neural network is used in natural language processing." Translation: "Neuronvõrk kasutatakse loomuliku keele töötlemisel."

6. Ukrainian: Нейронна мережа (Neyronna merezha, pronounced "nay-rohn-nah meh-reh-zhah") Sample sentence: "The neural network is used in self-driving cars." Translation: "Нейронна мережа використовується в автомобілях з автопілотом."

7. Russian: Нейронная сеть (Neyronnaya set', pronounced "nay-rohn-nah-yah syet'") Sample sentence: "The neural network is used in medical diagnosis." Translation: "Нейронная сеть используется в медицинской диагностике."

8. Chinese (Simplified): 神经网络 (Shénjīng wǎngluò, pronounced "shen-jing wahng-loh") Sample sentence: "The neural network is used in facial recognition technology." Translation:

   "神经网络被用于面部识别技术中."

   shen jing wang luo bei yong yu mian bu zhi bie ji shu zhong