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Jul 15, 2024

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Putting It Diplomatically…

The political landscape in the United States has been marked by turmoil in recent years. While comparisons to historical movements like the Red Guards of China and the Weimar Freikorps of Germany can provide insight, it's essential to look beyond simplistic parallels and examine the unique aspects of the American situation.

Biden's Path to Victory

President Joe Biden's political career suggests he's on track for an electoral win, thanks to his extensive experience and ability to build a strong team. Biden's decades-long involvement in politics has allowed him to build a network of allies and accumulate significant political influence. His time as Vice President under Barack Obama and his relationships with influential senators have strengthened his position. Moreover, his exceptional team-building skills have proven to be a decisive factor in his success.

Despite any reservations about individual team members, such as National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, the overall competence and motivation of Biden's team are undeniable. They have demonstrated a remarkable ability to handle the complexities of governance and communicate effectively with the public. This contrasts sharply with the weaknesses exhibited by his opponent, Donald Trump.

Trump's Downfall

Donald Trump's political decline can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, his failure to secure the popular vote in two consecutive elections highlights his limited appeal among the broader electorate. His victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 was more a reflection of her flaws as a candidate than his strengths. Clinton's campaign was marred by strategic missteps and a failure to resonate with critical voter blocs.

The events of January 6, 2021, marked a turning point in Trump's political career. The attempted coup, instigated by Trump and thwarted by Vice President Mike Pence, was a catastrophic blunder. This incident underscored the fragility of Trump's position and alienated many potential supporters among the elite and wealthy.

The Wealthy Elite and Politics

The reluctance of the wealthy elite to support Trump stems from a pragmatic assessment of his capabilities and the potential risks he poses. Trump's failure to galvanize a disciplined and effective paramilitary force, akin to Mussolini's Blackshirts, underscores his inability to command the loyalty and organization required for a successful authoritarian takeover. The wealthy elite, recognizing Trump's shortcomings and the potential instability his leadership could bring, have largely withdrawn their support.

The Rise of Populism

The populist wave that has swept across the United States represents a significant shift in the political landscape. On one hand, it has empowered the masses to demand economic relief through measures such as quantitative easing and stimulus checks. This populist surge has been fueled by the manipulation of base instincts and fears, a tactic Trump has exploited to rally his supporters. However, this very dynamic poses a threat to the wealthy elite, who fear losing their grip on power and wealth.

Trump's populism, characterized by incendiary rhetoric and divisive tactics, has ultimately proven self-destructive. The insurrection of January 6 was the culmination of this approach, and its failure exposed the limitations of Trump's strategy. The thuggish elements he attempted to mobilize were ill-prepared and ineffective, leading to a resounding defeat.

A Call for Discipline

The current political climate in the United States raises critical questions about the consequences of unchecked liberalism and the need for greater discipline. Issues such as obesity and drug addiction, often framed as products of liberal policies, demand serious attention. While the Soviet Union's systemic failures offer little guidance, the need for a disciplined approach to public health and social issues is evident.

Conclusion: Moving Forward

The events of January 6 serve as a stark reminder of the perils of unchecked populism and the importance of a disciplined, well-organized political strategy. The failure of Trump's insurrection underscores the need for a more coherent and effective approach to governance. The comparison to historical movements reveals the unique challenges facing the United States and the necessity of learning from past mistakes.

Ultimately, the future of American politics hinges on the ability to balance populist demands with the principles of discipline and order. As the nation grapples with its political identity, the lessons of history and the insights of experienced leaders will be crucial in navigating the path forward. The imperative now is to build a strong and inclusive political framework that addresses the needs of all citizens while maintaining the integrity of democratic institutions

PUTTING IT PLAINLY...

I tried to express the ideas in a nuanced balanced manner, smoothly and with sophistication. Lest I be misunderstood let me put it directly. My entire career has been about war. So, I have tended to not get involved in domestic politics. US foreign policy is remarkably bipartisan, and being non-partisan enabled me to work with any administration. I can tell you, whether you like it, or not, or disagree: Biden will win. This isn't so much because Biden has a decades long terribly successful political career and has consequently stored up lots of favors owed to him nor his close associations with past presidents, notably Obama but also many senators as it is due to the fact that one of his skills is a remarkable capacity to generate an effective team. I don't agree with all of them, notably Jake Sullivan, but they are nonetheless across the board competent, motivated. Though, as a non expert on the federal reserve I do not claim that Janet Yellen to be remarkably competent.

Aside from "Biden's" team's strengths (oratory is one of them) Trump is a weak candidate. He lost the popular vote twice and only won against Hillary because she was a remarkably ineffctive candidate: aloof and elitist, she succeed at motivating Trump's base and alienating potential supporters by referring to some of her fellow citizens as "a basket of deplorables".

On January Six, the Trump family committed political suicide. He attempted a coup d'etat, but failed because of Mike Pence. In the type of government Trump would like to install, had someone tried and failed to oust him by Putsch they would be taken out back and shot dead.

This is why the elites in the USA will not back Trump and will in fact support Biden. The majority of people do not in fact want to live with jackbooted thugs running around telling them how to vote, or else. There simply is not the desperation of poverty in the USA like there was in Weimar Germany or China during the Cultural Revolution to support any serious political violence, as can be seen by the near absence of actual domestic terrorism in the USA.

Another reason the very wealthy will oppose Trump is that the plebians in the USA have finally figured out all the plebes can gang up and vote themselves money: just call it "quantitative easing" or "stimulus checks". Elites know that is the death-knell of democracy and of wealth and eventually of the wealthy. The greedy orange thug aping his betters also figured out he can get the other plebes all riled up torches and pitch forks style just by manipulating their lowest meanest tendencies. Who could imagine it might backfire. Thugs with torches is totally not a threat to the super rich, and the super rich have no way to actually finish him, honest.

Trump’s political career is over.

Meanwhile, in the less than helpful ideas, Niall Ferguson is now asking himself whether the USA is a modern day USSR. On the up-side, Ferguson has noticed the declining life expectancy of the US poorest due to drug abuse and obsesity. On the down side, he hasn't quite figured out that is because of liberals with no sense of self-discipline indulging themselves to death. Though it has the problem of liberal excess, hedonism, and deadly self-indulgent decadence, America is not a nation of alcoholic incompetent criminals saddled by a planned economy with impossible production goals and deadlines, constant pilfering, rampant bribery and pervasive hypocrisy, unlike the USSR. You're just not that bad.

So, Molodyets! You are not a soviet! The question of how to cope with the consequences of rampant liberalism (obesity, drug addiction) is a vital one, but it has nought to do with the ill health of the USSR. I expect Niall Ferguson is on-point when it comes to fiscal, budget, and monetary policies and macroeconomics generally. But war isn't a market transaction, it is a negative sum transaction with an unwilling opponent as opposed to positive sum transactions among willing buyers and sellers. This is why he is best not to stray from the economic questions into broader social ones, especially those concerning war.

Put the Sacklers in jail and tax sugar heavily. Oh. That requires discipline among the elected and the electorate along with decisive action. Liberalism is undisciplined. So expect its victims to keep dropping like flies.

Amerika had its Weimar moment on Jan. Six and what a surprise the brownshits sharted and failed. I am not worried about Trump getting a second chance at a coup. Nor do I think he can win at the ballot box, nor can he fraud his way into office thanks to corrupting the courts. Stick a fork in him, he's done. Team Biden is gonna run him out of town on a rail, tar and feather him,

and that's that.