free eBooks! 十 US China trade in 2d Admin.
First, here are this weeks free eBooks, then the essay, followed by word of the day!
Cold War II? China, America, Global Strategy, and the New Cold War
Ukraine's War: Strategies & Tactics for Victory
How to Learn Chinese Characters Quickly
CORPORATE LAW: PROFIT, POWER, PRINCIPLES
Criminal Law & Criminal Procedure: Quizmaster Law Quiz Questions & Explanatory Answers for 1L Law School & the Bar Exam
Quizmaster Point of Law Flash Cards: Constitutional Law
Quizmaster: Tort Law
US-China Relations in a Second Trump Administration
In a second Trump administration, US-China relations will deteriorate, marked by escalating trade tensions, diplomatic hostility, and a breakdown of global institutions, as the US pursues a misguided policy of confrontation. China will most likely responds with an increasingly assertive "wolf warrior" diplomacy.
The trade war between the US and China, which began in 2018, has already had significant consequences for both economies. The Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods, followed by China's retaliatory measures, has led to a decline in bilateral trade and investment. The impact of these tariffs has been felt across the globe, with many companies reconfiguring their supply chains and investors becoming increasingly risk-averse. In a second Trump administration, it is likely that these trade tensions will escalate further, with the US imposing new tariffs and China responding with its own measures.
One potential area of escalation is the use of non-tariff barriers, such as export controls and investment restrictions. The US has already taken steps to restrict Chinese investment in the US, particularly in the tech sector, and it is likely that these restrictions will be expanded in a second Trump administration. China, meanwhile, has responded with its own restrictions on US investment and has hinted at further measures, such as restricting exports of rare earth minerals. These non-tariff barriers have the potential to cause significant economic disruption, particularly in industries that rely on complex global supply chains.
China's response will also be characterized by an increasingly assertive "wolf warrior" diplomacy. This approach, which involves using economic coercion and propaganda to achieve diplomatic goals, has been on display in China's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. China has used its economic leverage to pressure countries into supporting its position on issues such as Taiwan and Hong Kong, and has launched a global propaganda campaign to promote its own narrative on the pandemic. In a second Trump administration, it is likely that China will continue to use these tactics, potentially leading to a significant escalation of diplomatic tensions.
The consequences of this escalation and counter-escalation will be far-reaching. The economic costs of the trade war will continue to mount, with reduced trade and investment leading to slower economic growth and higher unemployment. The diplomatic fallout will also be significant, with the potential for a complete breakdown in US-China relations. This could have serious implications for global governance, particularly in areas such as climate change and non-proliferation, where US-China cooperation is essential.
China will likely continue to do business with the rest of the world, even as it reduces its economic ties with the US. China has already launched initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which aim to increase its economic ties with other regions. In a second Trump administration, it is likely that China will accelerate these efforts, potentially leading to a significant shift in the global economic balance of power.
In conclusion, a second Trump administration will almost certainly mark a significant deterioration in US-China relations, with escalating trade tensions, diplomatic hostility, and a breakdown of global institutions. The consequences of this deterioration will be far-reaching, with significant economic, diplomatic, and security implications. As the US pursues a misguided policy of confrontation, China will respond with an increasingly assertive "wolf warrior" diplomacy, potentially leading to a fundamental reshaping of the international order.
Notes:
In October 2024, the US Treasury Department issued final rules on investment restrictions against China, targeting sectors like semiconductors, AI, and quantum computing[1].
China's Ministry of Commerce expressed strong opposition to these restrictions, arguing they would disrupt normal economic cooperation[1].
Trade Policy and Tariffs
Trump has proposed imposing universal baseline tariffs on most imported foreign goods, with a mechanism to increase tariffs on countries deemed to engage in unfair trading practices[2].
This policy, while not explicitly targeting China, would significantly impact Chinese exporters and increase costs for American consumers and businesses[2].
Chinese Economic Challenges
China is facing economic challenges including a property crisis, weak consumer demand, and increasing local government debts[2].
Geopolitical Uncertainty
There is uncertainty regarding Trump's stance on Taiwan, with concerns about potential changes in US policy toward the region[2].
The Taiwan issue remains a sensitive point in US-China relations, with potential for escalation[4].
Diplomatic Efforts
Prior to Trump's election, there were efforts to stabilize US-China relations, including a summit between Presidents Biden and Xi in November 2023[4].
Military-to-military communications were resumed in late 2023, with top military officials from both countries speaking for the first time in months[4].
Future Outlook
Expectations for significant improvements in US-China relations remain low, with both sides aware of deeply entrenched differences[4].
The relationship is described as "stabilized but precarious" as of early 2024[4].
There are concerns that any aggressive actions by either side could quickly destabilize the relationship[4].
Historical Context
The US-China relationship has gone through various phases since formal diplomatic recognition in 1979, including periods of cooperation and tension[3].
Citations:
https://www.china-briefing.com/news/us-china-relations-in-the-biden-era-a-timeline/
https://www.china-briefing.com/news/trump-china-us-relations-2024-election-victory-implications-businesses/
https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-china-relations
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/us-china-relations-in-2024-are-stabilized-but-precarious/
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/us-china-relations-for-the-2030s-toward-a-realistic-scenario-for-coexistence?lang=en
https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-china-relations-2024-managing-competition-without-conflict
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/16/xi-biden-meet-tariffs-to-taiwan-what-ails-us-china-ties-as-trump-looms
https://theconversation.com/why-china-is-worried-about-a-second-trump-presidency-and-how-beijing-might-react-243134
Word of the Day: TRADE WAR
English: Trade War
Translations:
French: Guerre commerciale (pronounced "gerr koh-mehr-see-ahl")
Spanish: Guerra comercial (pronounced "gair-rah koh-mehr-see-ahl")
German: Handelskrieg (pronounced "hahn-dels-kreeg")
Estonian: Kaubasõda (pronounced "kah-oo-bah-soh-dah")
Ukrainian: Торговельна війна (Torgovel'na viyna) (pronounced "tohr-goh-vell-nah vee-y-nah")
Russian: Торговая война (Torgovaya voyna) (pronounced "tohr-goh-vah-yah voh-y-nah")
Chinese: (mào yì zhàn) (pronounced "mao ee jahn")
贸易战
Sample Sentences:
English: The trade war between the two countries has been ongoing for months.
French: La guerre commerciale entre les deux pays dure depuis des mois.
Spanish: La guerra comercial entre los dos países lleva meses en curso.
German: Der Handelskrieg zwischen den beiden Ländern dauert seit Monaten an.
Estonian: Kaubasõda kahe riigi vahel on kestnud kuude.
Ukrainian: Торговельна війна між двома країнами триває вже місяці.
Russian: Торговая война между двумя странами длится уже месяцы.
Chinese: (zhè liǎng guó jiān de mào yì zhàn yǐ jīng chí xù le jǐ gè yuè) 这两国间的
贸易战已经持续了几个月
Note: The Chinese translation uses Simplified Chinese characters. If you need Traditional Chinese characters, please let me know!