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Disintegrative Warfare and Artificial Intelligence

Recently Sir Niall Ferguson has written about A.I.; earlier, he has called to oppose "the arsenal of autocracy", China. Unfortunately, most strategic thinking about China and war really misses the point, especially when it considers a.i.

Let's start with the basics. Read Unrestricted Warfare and then look in practice to what china has done in the past 25. Congratulations! You just discovered the playbook. CIA translated it for you and plastered it on the internet, but apparently my so-called betters and so-called leaders missed out.

I didn't.

It is inaccurate to call China Russia's arsenal or the arsenal of autocracy. That just isn't happening. In fact, I can happily point you to Chinese drones in Ukrainian hands. But don't dare think for one minute that's because of Chinese benevolence: it's simply opportunistic calculation of the correlation of forces.

A correct British led strategy, for Britain is now the leader of the free world, will, not may, will rightly recognize: China isn't Russia, and will hem in the former to break the latter. Mark my words, they are the purest truth.

However, in terms of a.i. and war, all the other strategists are still fixated on nukes, like it's 1950, with venona and ultra as well as nuclear espionage and arms racing. I know that story thoroughly: but it isn't the world we are living in, any more than the purported Chinese Russian axis. Getting those two to burn each other would be easy peasy Chineasy. But guess what toasters, we really are the good guys. Russia is not China. One of them is a an alcoholic rapey kleptocratic murderer that constantly lies. The other is an optimistic hard working sharp trader. I'm not the crapitalist here, if you are getting out-produced and out-traded by a nation of shopkeepers it's not my fault, nor is it my problem.

But what I do wish to highlight here is where the real war is. It is NOT a.i. nukes. That's dinosaur thinking.

The real battle ground is informational. Specifically, it's disintegrative warfare (see annex).

Disintegrative warfare is a paradigm shift in the way states pursue strategic objectives. By targeting the social, economic, and political fabric of adversaries, this approach bypasses traditional military engagements, emphasizing disruption over destruction. Russia and China, two prominent actors in this domain, have leveraged disintegrative warfare as part of their broader geopolitical strategies, posing significant challenges to global stability and Western norms. But they did this separately using different ideas with differetn goals, more often working at cross purposes than like some bad bond luchadora grindhouse sexploitation flick.

Russia's Hybrid Warfare: A Case Study in Disintegration

Russia exemplifies disintegrative warfare through its hybrid warfare strategies. This approach combines conventional military operations with psychological operations, cyberattacks, and information manipulation to create instability and undermine adversaries' cohesion. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and ongoing conflict in Ukraine illustrate this model. Key elements include:

1. Psychological and Information Operations: Russia has weaponized social media and traditional media to spread disinformation, amplify divisions, and undermine confidence in democratic institutions. Campaigns targeting elections in Western democracies, such as the U.S. presidential election in 2016, highlight this strategy.

2. Cyber Warfare: High-profile cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and government institutions, including the 2017 NotPetya attack, demonstrate Russia’s capacity to disrupt and destabilize through digital means.

3. Economic Warfare: Sanctions on targeted nations like Ukraine are paired with energy dependency strategies to exert economic pressure.

4. Proxy Forces and Covert Operations: The use of paramilitary groups like the Wagner Group and covert operations blurs the line between state and non-state actors, complicating attribution and response.

Russia's hybrid approach is designed to exploit vulnerabilities within open societies, undermining their ability to respond cohesively while maintaining plausible deniability.

China’s Strategic Challenge in the Information Age

While China employs disintegrative tactics, its approach differs in emphasis and execution. Rather than overt destabilization, China focuses on long-term strategic gains through economic leverage, technological dominance, and soft power projection:

1. Economic and Technological Warfare: China leverages its role as a global economic powerhouse to create dependencies. Initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) tie nations into economic networks that grant Beijing significant influence. Simultaneously, China's push for technological dominance in areas like artificial intelligence and 5G enhances its ability to collect and weaponize data.

2. Cyber Espionage and Surveillance: Unlike Russia’s disruptive cyberattacks, China prioritizes espionage to extract intellectual property and strategic information. High-profile breaches like the 2015 OPM hack exemplify this.

3. Information and Narrative Control: China’s "Great Firewall" domestically and its international media outreach aim to control narratives and suppress dissent. Campaigns to influence global discourse around sensitive issues like Hong Kong or Taiwan further this goal.

4. Gray Zone Activities: These include maritime militia operations in the South China Sea and economic coercion against countries like Australia, designed to achieve strategic objectives without triggering open conflict.

Comparing Russian and Chinese Approaches

While both Russia and China employ disintegrative warfare, their methods reflect differing priorities:

• Scope and Intent: Russia seeks to destabilize and divide adversaries quickly, while China focuses on gradual erosion of influence and long-term strategic positioning.

• Target Selection: Russia primarily targets Western democracies directly, while China’s approach is broader, leveraging global economic interdependence.

• Methods: Russia employs more overt and disruptive tactics, whereas China relies on subtle, systemic influence through economic and technological means.

Implications for Western Institutions, Values, and Rules

The combined strategies of Russia and China challenge the foundational principles of Western governance, including transparency, rule of law, and democratic accountability. Disinformation campaigns erode trust in public institutions, cyberattacks disrupt critical infrastructure, and economic coercion undermines sovereign decision-making.

Countering Disintegrative Warfare

Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted response:

1. Strengthening Resilience: Democracies must harden their infrastructure, improve cybersecurity, and foster societal resilience against disinformation through public awareness and education campaigns.

2. Alliance Coordination: Multilateral organizations like NATO and the EU must enhance coordination in identifying and countering hybrid threats. Joint task forces can share intelligence and best practices.

3. Economic and Technological Independence: Diversifying supply chains and investing in domestic innovation reduce vulnerabilities to economic coercion.

4. Attribution and Response: Developing mechanisms to attribute and respond to disintegrative actions, such as sanctions or countermeasures, can deter future attacks.

5. Norms and Governance: Promoting international norms around cyber activities and economic coercion can pressure adversaries to constrain their tactics.

Conclusion

Disintegrative warfare, as used by Russia and China, is a significant evolution in the nature of conflict. By targeting the foundations of adversarial states rather than their armies, these strategies exploit the vulnerabilities of networked societies. While Russia’s hybrid warfare seeks immediate destabilization, China’s approach emphasizes long-term influence and dominance. Countering these threats requires resilience, coordination, and innovation from Western nations to safeguard the principles of stability, sovereignty, and democracy in the 21st century.

At worst, its a case of tag team bad guys. In reality its about two countries that are as often as not enemies, and figuring out how to make them hate each other.

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Definition: Disintegrative Warfare

Disintegrative warfare is a military strategy that aims to break down and fragment an adversary's social, economic, and political structures, rather than focusing solely on destroying their military capabilities. This approach seeks to create chaos, disorder, and instability, making it difficult for the enemy to function effectively. Disintegrative warfare often involves a combination of tactics, including:

1. Psychological operations: Spreading propaganda, misinformation, and disinformation to erode the enemy's morale, create confusion, and undermine their will to resist.

2. Cyber warfare: Disrupting the enemy's command and control systems, communication networks, and critical infrastructure to create confusion and disrupt their ability to respond effectively.

3. Economic warfare: Targeting the enemy's economy, trade, and financial systems to weaken their ability to sustain themselves and their military.

4. Information operations: Using social media, fake news, and other forms of information manipulation to shape public opinion, create divisions, and undermine the enemy's legitimacy.

5. Special operations: Conducting covert operations, sabotage, and raids to disrupt the enemy's supply lines, communication networks, and key infrastructure.

6. Hybrid warfare: Blending conventional and non-conventional tactics, such as using proxy forces, militias, or terrorist groups to attack the enemy from multiple directions.

The goals of disintegrative warfare are to weakening the enemy's will to resist by creating chaos and disorder, disintegrative warfare aims to erode the enemy's morale and will to continue fighting. This is done by disrupting the enemy's command and control, targeting the enemy's communication networks and command structures, to create confusion and disrupt the enemy’s ability to respond effectively. Disruption of will to fight is also done by creating divisions and factions, spreading propaganda and misinformation, disintegrative warfare aims to create divisions and factions within the enemy's ranks, making it harder for them to present a united front. By targeting the enemy's economy, infrastructure, and social structures, disintegrative warfare seeks to undermine their legitimacy and create a sense of instability and chaos.

Disintegrative warfare has been used throughout history, but it has become increasingly prominent in modern conflicts, particularly in the context of:

1. Asymmetric warfare: Where a weaker adversary uses unconventional tactics to counter a stronger opponent.

2. Hybrid warfare: Where a combination of conventional and non-conventional tactics are used to achieve strategic objectives.

3. Information age warfare: Where the use of information technology, social media, and cyber warfare has become a key component of modern warfare.

Here are som examples of disintegrative warfare in practice. The Soviet Union used disinformation and propaganda during the Cold War to undermine the legitimacy of Western governments and create divisions within NATO. The US used psychological operations during the Gulf War to demoralize the Iraqi military and create confusion among their command structures. The Russian used disintegrative warfare in Ukraine to create chaos and disorder, and undermine the Ukrainian government's legitimacy. Similarly, social media and cyber warfare are used by terrorist groups to spread propaganda, recruit fighters, and disrupt the social and economic structures of their enemies.

Disintegrative warfare has several advantages, including:

1. Low cost: Compared to traditional warfare, disintegrative warfare can be relatively low-cost, as it often relies on non-kinetic means.

2. Deniability: Disintegrative warfare can be difficult to attribute, making it harder for the enemy to respond effectively.

3. Flexibility: Disintegrative warfare can be adapted to a wide range of scenarios and environments.

However, disintegrative warfare also has several challenges and risks. It can be hard to measure the effectiveness of disintegrative warfare, as its goals are often intangible and difficult to quantify. Disintegrative warfare can escalate into more conventional forms of warfare, leading to unintended consequences. Finally, disintegrative warfare can have unintended consequences, such as creating more radicalized groups or destabilizing entire regions.

In conclusion, disintegrative warfare is a complex and multifaceted approach to warfare that seeks to break down and fragment an adversary's social, economic, and political structures. While it has been used throughout history, its use has become increasingly prominent in modern conflicts, particularly in the context of asymmetric, hybrid, and information age warfare.

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Word of the Day: Subvert

Sample Sentence : China seeks to subvert US diplomacy and is very likely to succeed at that.

Here are the translations for the word "subvert" in the requested languages, along with a sample sentence:

French:

Translation: Saper

Sample Sentence: La Chine cherche à saper la diplomatie américaine et a de grandes chances de réussir.

Spanish:

Translation: Subvertir

Sample Sentence: China busca subvertir la diplomacia estadounidense y es muy probable que lo logre.

German:

Translation: Untergraben

Sample Sentence: China versucht, die US-Diplomatie zu untergraben und wird wahrscheinlich erfolgreich sein.

Estonian:

Translation: Alandama

Sample Sentence: Hiina üritab alandada Ameerika Ühendriikide diplomaatiat ja on tõenäoliselt edukas selles.

Ukrainian:

Translation: Підірвати (Pidirvaty)

Sample Sentence: Китай намагається підірвати американську дипломатію і, ймовірно, досягне успіху.

Russian:

Translation: Подорвать (Podorvat')

Sample Sentence: Китай пытается подорвать американскую дипломатию и, вероятно, добьется успеха.

Chinese (Simplified):

Translation: 颠覆 (Diānfù)

Sample Sentence: 中国试图颠覆美国的外交政策，很可能会成功。

Traditional Chinese characters, it would be:顛覆 (Diānfù).