GETTING CHINA RIGHT (Kotkin)
A TALE OF TWO CHINAS (ep 01)
What China Is and What China Isn't
Escalated tensions between the United States and China have brought into sharp focus the need to understand the nature of the Chinese state and its intentions. Unfortunately, many have failed to grasp the fundamental characteristics of China's system, leading to misguided policies and strategies that have only exacerbated global problems.
We must be clear about what China is and what it isn't. That gives us a smart perspective on the mercantilist state capitalist people's dictatorship and implications for international relations. This requires a deep understanding of China's unique blend of economic and political systems.
At its core, China is a mercantilist state capitalist people's dictatorship, a complex and often contradictory entity driven by a desire to promote material national interests, uphold international ideals, and maintain domestic social stability. The PRC is characterized by a strong central government that plays a dominant role in guiding the economy and shaping the country's development trajectory.
One of the key features of China's system is its mercantilist approach to trade and investment. Mercantilism is designed to promote national interests and maximize economic benefits. This approach is often at odds with the liberal free trade ideology that has dominated the global economy for decades, leading to tensions and conflicts with other nations.
Another critical aspect of China's system is its state capitalist nature. It is characterized by a significant role for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in key sectors of the economy. These SOEs are often seen as instruments of state policy, and are used to promote national interests and achieve strategic objectives.
The people's dictatorship aspect of China's system is also critical, as it reflects the country's commitment to socialism and the principles of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This aspect of the system is often misunderstood or overlooked by external observers, who tend to focus on the country's economic and political systems without fully appreciating the ideological underpinnings of the regime. The CCP seeks to uphold and attain internationalist ideals and ideas of Marxism. It pursues "socialism with Chinese characteristics". Like any state, we should see the Chinese ideology as a desiderata, a sincere grasping at hoped for goals: These hopes are undergirded by and serve China's national interest. This is why China can claim to want global peace, an end to all wars, and be neutral in theory and largely so in practice with respect to Ukraine.
Despite its complexities (MSCD) and contradictions (the world's sharpest merchants governed by a nominally communist country), China's system has been remarkably successful at promoting economic growth and development, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and transforming the country into a global economic powerhouse. However, this success has also created new challenges and tensions, both domestically and internationally.
By clarifying what China is and what it isn't, we can begin to develop more effective policies and strategies that are based on a realistic understanding of the country's intentions and capabilities. This is essential for promoting peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, and for addressing the complex global challenges that we face in the 21st century.
WHAT CHINA IS
China is a mercantilist state capitalist people's dictatorship: That system defies the liberal open trading model. This doesn't mean that doing business with China is impossible. It does mean that a bilateral approach is more effective. Chinese people are hardworking, benevolent, self-interested, and smart traders who prioritize national interests. To succeed in trade and investment with China, we must recognize the Chinese government's mercantilist nature and adapt accordingly.
One of the most significant misconceptions about China is its desire to replace the United States as the global hegemon. This notion is true in theory, but entirely unrealistic as a goal. That overly ambitious goal is beyond China's means, militarily, ideologically, and militarily.Limitations on the Chinese governance model are why China could not be a global hegemon and does not in fact claim to desire global hegemony. China lacks the governance structures to pursue such an ambitious goal. China also lacks the military experience for such an ambition. Furthermore, much of Chinese military equipment is built following the Russian model. This equipment has been shown repeatedly in Ukraine to be sub-par. China will almost certainly be contained militarily within the first island chain, despite global rhetorica and ambitions.
Although China claims global ambitions, the reality is somewhat different. In fact, that is in actual practices, China's primary objective is seen to be to maintain its sovereignty and promote economic growth through cooperation. Foreign ambitions are all keyed to serving the people and meeting demands of Chinese domestic governance.
A key aspect of China's system is the role of the Communist Party of China (CCP). For one example, Chinese corporations are required to have a directorate of CCP members, which can create challenges for foreign businesses. To navigate these complexities, Chinese businesses overseas should operate as subsidiaries incorporated under local law. These nominally foreign but Chinese owned business entities should focus on sectors with bilateral reciprocity. The CCP and Chinese trading partners should also consider drafting bilateral trade and investment treaties to facilitate further future cooperation. Bilateralism is the way forward, both for China and for China's trading partners. This may change after the war in Ukraine ends.
THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND CHINA
Despite the prevailing tensions and rivalries between China and the United States, it's essential to recognize that neither nation has warlike objectives or ambitions toward each other. In fact, I strongly advocate for sustained cooperation between the two powers to reslve the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The current conflict in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder of the devastating consequences of war and the importance of diplomacy in resolving international disputes. China can play an important role in ending the war in Ukraine.
Russia's defeat in Ukraine is inevitable. Thereafter, the global landscape will undergo a significant transformation. The United Nations and the World Trade Organization, two pillars of the post-Cold War architecture, will require fundamental reform to address the changing dynamics of international relations. A New Marshall Plan, administered by the EU, Member States, and the USA must be created to rebuild Ukraine and stabilize the former subject nations of the "Russian" Federation: China might participate. China will be confronted with a unique generational opportunity to help reshape the world order, a unique opportunity for China to contribute its ideas and perspectives on restructuring the UN, the WTO, and the soon to be former "Russian" Federation.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has a vital role to play in shaping the future of international relations. As a key stakeholder in the global economy, China's participation in the reform process is essential to ensuring that its interests in peace through prosperity are respected and protected. The CCP's ideas on restructuring the UN and WTO will be instrumental in creating a more democratic international system based on enforceale rules, whether bilateral, multilateral, or mixed.
One of the primary objectives of the reform process will be UN reform: the "Russian" Federation a criminal regime still occupying a dozen other nations, will be stripped of its UN veto and disaggregated much like Nazi Germany was. There will be war crimes trials. China may have vital and good ideas about how to improve democratic internationalism through the reformed UN. Obviously China will retain veto power and hopefully will have constructive ideas about how to improve democratic representation at the UN and smoother cross border political interactions. There is a massive international democratic deficit, as well as an international rule of law deficit, both of which are to blame for the war in Ukraine, and other wars too.
Similarly, the WTO requires reform to recognize that China is not a good-faith multilateralist, but a sharp mercantilist trader.
Ultimately, the reform of the UN and WTO presents a critical opportunity for China and the United States to work together towards a more peaceful and prosperous world of bilateral relations instead of unilateralism in the wake of Russia's smash-and-grab rape-rob-murder festivals. By recognizing the importance of bilateral cooperation and diplomacy, China, the USA, and the EU and its Member States can create a more stable and cooperative international environment, one that respects the interests and priorities of all nations to make sure nothing like war criminal Putin ever recurs.
The notion that China and the United States have warlike objectives or ambitions toward each other is a misconception fostered by Russia in service of cynical criminal interests of the kleptocratic mafia currently governing Moscow. The false Anglo-Chinese conflict must be exposed as a Russian propaganda ploy. The myth of a new cold war will be exposed dispelled as soon as Russia is completely defeatd in Ukraine. Instead of a new cold war, China and he USA will prioritize cooperation and diplomacy, working together to address the complex challenges of the 21st century so that the entire world can prosper in peace together. The reform of the UN and WTO provides a unique opportunity for China to contribute its ideas and perspectives, shaping the future of international relations and promoting peace through prosperity. It also provides the EU that same opportunity to change its role at the UN.
WHAT CHINA ISN'T: A TERRORIST STATE BENT ON CONQUEST & DOMINATION
A History of Cooperation and Missteps
In the 1990s, the United States entered into several agreements with China that, in hindsight, were overly favorable to Beijing. These agreements, such as China's accession to the WTO, were intended to encourage China's economic integration and political liberalization: to help China rise from poverty and risks of war and radicalism. However, these favorable de facto concessions to Beijing ultimately contributed to the significant trade imbalances and intellectual property concerns that plague relationships between the West and China today. The ongoing war crimes in Ukraine and elsewhere highlight the need for a recalibration of global governance.
Yet, China's commitment to peaceful coexistence is a reality that cannot be ignored. China's 30 year long record of not sponsoring, fostering, or encouraging terrorism in any form is a testament to its dedication to promoting global stability and security. Furthermore, China's 40-year streak of not engaging in a single war is a remarkable achievement, especially when compared to the tumultuous history of the 20th century.
This commitment to peace is not a mere coincidence. It is a deliberate choice made by China's leaders. China's primary focus on economic development and cooperation is a reflection of its understanding that prosperity and stability are intertwined. China's leaders recognize that cooperation is the key to achieving prosperity, and that conflict would only hinder its progress.
The notion of a new Cold War with China is a misguided concept that fails to take into account the country's unique characteristics and priorities. China's lack of a realistic strategy to replace the United States as the global hegemon is a significant obstacle to any potential conflict. "It takes two to tangle". China's governance structures are not designed to support a global struggle for hegemonic dominance, and its leaders are well aware of the devastating consequences of armed conflict.
Happily, the world has already undergone a grand transformation since the last global wars. The world in the 1960s still faced famine, including in China. Rather than famine, starvation, and malnutrition, the world faces at worst "only" malnutrition: adequate calories, but inadequate vitamins and protein. For China however the days of famine are thankfully historical memory. The threat of starvation, which once loomed large over the global population, has essentially ended, at least outside war zones. This has a significant deradicalizing efect. Today, the vast majority of people on earth just want a happy prosperous life. Cooperation has become much more attractive and viable option than conflict. A starving man has no choice but to fight or die, since he will die anyway. People who are not starving make better decisions.
This great increase in global wealth since the cold war'send is the result of the unprecedented economic growth and development that has taken place over the past few decades. The rise of global wealth has created new opportunities for cooperation and collaboration instead of conflicts and war, a positive upward spiral of growth and wealth. Putin wants to wreck that, but Putin will be destroyed by the very forces he unleashed.
In this context, China's commitment to peaceful coexistence and cooperation is a welcome development. China's focus on economic development and cooperation is a reflection of its understanding of the changing global landscape, and its desire to play a constructive role in shaping the future of international relations.
Implications and Conclusions
The recognition that China is a mercantilist state capitalist people's dictatorship has significant implications for international relations. It's essential to adopt a bilateral approach to trade and investment, acknowledging China's unique characteristics and priorities. The CCP should also engage in drafting bilateral trade and investment treaties to facilitate cooperation. The reform of the WTO and the United Nations is crucial to accommodating China's governance system and promoting global cooperation. This process should be undertaken in conjunction with the CCP, which has a vital role to play in shaping the future of international relations. Ultimately, the path forward lies in deeper economic integration, political cooperation, and legal reforms.
By recognizing what China is and what it isn't, we can avoid the pitfalls of misguided policies and strategies, instead charting a course towards a more peaceful and prosperous world. In the midst of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it's essential to prioritize winning the war while laying the groundwork for future cooperation with China. The restructuring of the UN and WTO will be critical in this process, ensuring that China's interests in peace through prosperity are respected and protected. As we move forward, it's crucial to dispel the myths and misconceptions surrounding China's intentions and capabilities. By so doing, we can create a more stable and cooperative international environment, one that recognizes the complexities and nuances of China's system.
NEWS
Pilots over Moscow notice unidentified silver ball in the sky.
https://tolknews.ru/obsestvo/167604-piloti-zametili-v-nebe-nad-moskvoy-neopoznanniy-serebristiy-shar
你好!你最近怎么样?
Ramzan Kadyrov is gonna die soon. See you in hell motherfucker!
Macron:
Kotkin!
Regarding China, he's mistaken, by equating China and the CCP to Russia and the CPUSSR.
I have said repeatedly: Russia will lose its ongoing war crime in Ukraine and wind up much like Nazi Germany: split apart, but this time the occupied nations ruled by Moscow will gain independence. Thereafter Marshall Plan 2.0 with EU maybe Chinese participation.Kotkin might disagree, and is qualified to talk about Russia. However, there are
Russian Futures Kotkin Did not Describe…
Kotkin does not raise the prospect of a neofascist nazbol Russia, which totally could happen.
Nor does Kotkin mention the idea of the Russian Communist Party taking power again.
Nor does Kotkin mention the idea of Russia winding up a German vassal state, which could also happen, just ask Gerhard Schröder for example.
This isn't necessarily because he does not see those possibilities: he might be ignoring them purposefully.
I suspect Kotkin rank orders his futures of Russia based on most to least desireable, not with regard to likelihood. The path I am charting out for you all is infact the most likely outcome.
But if Kotkin is wrong about Russia, he is even more wrong about China, QED supra.
About time. You finally got a national unity government going.
Can you all do me a favor and get behind the old man?
What can I say? I'm an authoritarian democrat who believes in democracy, the rule of law, that the state should have limited but final power in certain well-defined domains. I’m also a great fan of China. You’re all gonna have to learn to live together, or else you will just die together. Either way you’re stuck with each other.
Former head of MI 6 (British foreign intelligence) on Chinese espionage.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-xi-files-how-china-spies/
ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS
When people or peoples, corporations or states, say one thing and then do that very thing, we should presume they are in good faith, and actually intend what they say. It is this which builds international trust, predictability, and thus stability to human relations, whether in families, at work, or when dealing with entire nations. Presume good faith, especially where it is proven by actions, especially where those actions have long been consistent with their statements.
The much tougher case is where a person, a group, a nation, issues various statements, some of which partly line up with their actions, others of which don't at all. What then?
Then, sadly, we must distrust their words, and focus on their actions. In that case, judge people and nations by their actions, not their words. This age-old adage remains as relevant today as it was in the past, serving as a guiding principle for human behavior and international relations. When individuals or nations proclaim one thing but do another, just ignore their words and focus on their actions. This approach helps to cut through the noise of empty promises, propaganda, and diplomatic doublespeak, allowing us to see the true intentions and character of those involved.
Throughout history, we've seen numerous examples of leaders and nations saying one thing but doing another. From the broken promises of appeasement policies to the hollow rhetoric of dictatorships, the gap between words and actions has often been stark. By focusing on deeds rather than words, we can avoid being misled by false promises and instead, make informed judgments about the true nature of those we deal with.
When nations make grand pronouncements about their commitment to peace, cooperation, or human rights, but their actions tell a different story, we should be skeptical. By examining their actions, we can determine whether their words are mere window dressing or a genuine reflection of their intentions.
I 'd say I agree with everything you said and agree that bi-lateral dealing with China is the only way to trade with them but I do not understand how one deals with the damage done. That damage is to multi-lateral institutions that they want to participate in such as the WTO and the necessary increase in industrial policies that I think will drive down human progress even though it is the citizens of the PRC who absorb most of the burden that appears to be for the benefit of the CCP. I guess it is necessary to pay the price as the cost is lower than the cost of war but it is a new paradigm that I do not like at all.
Will have to give this some thought.