Graham Allison, Chinese History & ForeignPolicy

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May 01, 2024

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GRAHAM ALLISON:
HENRY KISSINGERS GHOST SPEAKS

The pursuit of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region is a laudable goal, but it requires a deep understanding of the historical, cultural, and strategic contexts that shape the behavior of nations. Graham Allison's work on preventing a war between China and the United States is a crucial contribution to the ongoing debate on Sino-American relations. However, Allison's approach, rooted in Western historical analysis, raises concerns about its limitations and potential biases. Knowing and exploring Western history of great power relations is a necessary but insufficient condition for understanding the complexities of Sino-American relations. By neglecting to dig deeper into China's rich history and culture, Allison's framework may overlook essential lessons and implications that could be drawn from China's past to prevent conflicts. This omission is particularly striking, given the significance of China's historical experiences and cultural nuances in shaping its foreign policy decisions. A more comprehensive understanding of US-China relations requires a multifaceted approach, incorporating both Western and Chinese perspectives, as well as a broader consideration of hopes and opportunities beyond mere war prevention.

Allison's focus on Western history and military conflict prevention raises questions about the adequacy of his approach. Does his framework neglect the significance of China's own historical experiences and cultural nuances in shaping its foreign policy decisions? Can we truly understand the complexities of Sino-American relations just by examining Western historical precedents? The answer, it seems, is no. China's long history, marked by periods of imperial expansion, dynastic rise and fall, and cultural exchange, offers valuable insights into its current behavior and aspirations. The Middle Kingdom's concept of the mandate of heaven, tianxia(天下), or "all under heaven," has shaped its understanding of State power and China's place in the world and its relationships with other nations. The legacy of the Opium Wars, the Century of Humiliation, and the Communist Revolution has instilled a deep sense of nationalism and a desire for recognition as a great power. By ignoring these lessons, we risk misunderstanding China's motivations and misinterpreting its actions.

Furthermore, Allison's defensive thinking, centered on fears and military conflict, overlooks the importance of hopes and opportunities in shaping US-China relations. Economic and cultural exchanges, for instance, have the potential to foster greater cooperation and understanding between the two nations. The growth of China's economy, driven by its integration into the global trading system, has created new opportunities for cooperation and mutual benefit. As Former Amb. McFaul recently emphasized, greater Chinese linguistic and cultural awareness is essential for forming a corps of people who can effectively guide and manage US China policies. This lack of language and historical awareness of China may be a significant reason why Allison's approach appears inadequate.

China's emergence as a global economic powerhouse presents both challenges and opportunities. While it can be a military challenger, it is also an economic opportunity, potentially holding the key to ending poverty worldwide. By recognizing this duality, we can begin to develop a more nuanced understanding of US-China relations, one that balances concerns about security with the potential benefits of cooperation. This, in turn, requires a shift in focus from mere war prevention to a more comprehensive approach that incorporates economic, cultural, and diplomatic engagement.

One potential counterargument to this critique is that Allison's focus on Western history is justified, given the significance of Western powers in shaping the modern international system. However, this argument neglects the fact that China's rise is redefining the global landscape, and its historical experiences and cultural context are increasingly relevant to understanding its behavior. Moreover, a solely Western-centric approach risks perpetuating a Eurocentric bias, which can lead to a distorted understanding of global affairs.

Another possible counterargument is that Allison's emphasis on military conflict prevention is necessary, given the risks of escalation in the Asia-Pacific region. While this concern is valid, it should not come at the expense of neglecting other crucial aspects of US-China relations. A more balanced approach, incorporating both security concerns and opportunities for cooperation, can help mitigate the risks of conflict while fostering greater understanding and collaboration.

Graham Allison's work on preventing a China-US war is an important contribution to the ongoing debate on Sino-American relations. However, his approach, rooted in Western historical analysis and focused on military conflict prevention, requires a more nuanced and comprehensive understanding of US-China relations. By incorporating both Western and Chinese perspectives, as well as a broader consideration of hopes and opportunities, we can develop a more effective framework for preventing conflicts and fostering greater cooperation between the two nations. The imperative of a nuanced understanding is clear: we must move beyond a solely Western-centric approach and recognize the significance of China's history, culture, and aspirations in shaping its foreign policy decisions.

The pursuit of peace and stability in international relations requires a deep understanding of the complexities and nuances that shape the behavior of nations. The imperative of a nuanced understanding is clear: we must move beyond a solely Western-centric approach and recognize the significance of China's history, culture, and aspirations in shaping its foreign policy decisions. Only through a more comprehensive and balanced approach can we hope to prevent a China-US war and foster a more peaceful and prosperous world order.

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CHINESE HISTORY AND CONTEMPORARY CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY

China's extensive history has shaped its contemporary foreign policy, with many parallels between the two. At least ten ideas highlight connections between China's past and its current approach to international relations. This is just to give you a taste of the sorts of ideas that I think Allison really should get into: it would improve his analysis and increase the likelihood of averting Sino-American conflicts.

Tributary System and Hierarchical Order

The tributary system, which existed from the Han Dynasty to the Qing Dynasty, established a hierarchical order with China at the center. This system emphasized the superiority of Chinese culture and the emperor's mandate to rule. Today, China's pursuit of a "community of common destiny" and its emphasis on "win-win cooperation" can be seen as an attempt to recreate a hierarchical order, with China playing a leading role as benevolent enlightened center of a network of trade related states.

For instance, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is often viewed as a modern-day tributary system, where China provides economic benefits to participating countries in exchange for their loyalty and cooperation. The BRI's emphasis on infrastructure development, trade, and investment has created a network of countries that are economically dependent on China, thereby reinforcing its position as a global leader.

The Century of Humiliation

The Opium Wars and the subsequent "Century of Humiliation" left a deep scar on the Chinese psyche. This period of foreign invasion, occupation, and exploitation has instilled a strong sense of nationalism and a desire to restore China's dignity and prestige. Contemporary Chinese foreign policy is often driven by a desire to avoid similar humiliations and to reclaim China's rightful place on the global stage.

China's assertive behavior in the South China Sea, for example, can be seen as a response to the historical humiliations it suffered at the hands of foreign powers. By claiming sovereignty over the disputed territories, China is attempting to reassert its dominance and restore its national pride. This also keys into China’s border disputes, which China has with all her neighbors. (Infra)

The Mandate of Heaven

In traditional Chinese political philosophy, the emperor's legitimacy was based on the Mandate of Heaven (tianming天命). This concept implied that the ruler's authority was derived from a divine source and that the ruler had a moral obligation to maintain harmony and stability. Today, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) often invokes the Mandate of Heaven to justify its rule and to promote a sense of moral authority in international relations. By promoting its vision of a "harmonious world" and a "community of common destiny," the CCP is attempting to create a moral justification for its growing global influence.

Face (look me in the eye) and Reputation for Prestige

In Chinese culture, "face" (look me in the eyes, gei mianzi给面子) and prestige are crucial aspects of social and political interactions. The concept of "losing face" (diao mianzi掉面子) can have significant consequences, including damage to one's reputation and credibility. In international relations, China is often sensitive to issues of face and prestige, which can influence its responses to diplomatic crises and its pursuit of global influence.

China's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, was heavily influenced by concerns about face and prestige. The government's initial attempts to downplay the severity of the outbreak and its subsequent efforts to promote its response as a model for the world were driven by a desire to maintain China's reputation and credibility on the global stage.

The Long Game

Chinese history is marked by a long-term perspective, with dynasties often planning and preparing for centuries. This approach is reflected in contemporary Chinese foreign policy, which prioritizes strategic patience and long-term goals over short-term gains.

China's BRI, for instance, is a decades-long project aimed at reshaping global trade and economic patterns. By investing in infrastructure development and trade agreements, China is creating a network of economic relationships that will serve its interests for generations to come.

Borders and Territorial Integrity

China's history is marked by frequent border conflicts and territorial disputes. The country's sensitivity to border issues is reflected in its contemporary approach to territorial disputes, such as those in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the India-China border. China has border disputes with all or nearl all her neighbors.

China's assertive behavior in the South China Sea, for example, is driven by a desire to protect its territorial claims and to maintain its sovereignty over the disputed territories. The country's willingness to engage in military conflicts and to challenge the status quo reflects its historical sensitivity to border issues.

Personal Relationships and Connections (Guanxi)

In Chinese culture, personal relationships (guanxi关系) play a crucial role in business, politics, and diplomacy. The cultivation of strong relationships with foreign leaders and the development of personal connections are essential components of Chinese foreign policy, as seen in Xi Jinping's diplomatic efforts. Note also that while guanxi means "relationships" it also can carry the connotation of "connections" as in corruption. Corruption, which historically damaged China often in the past, is currently undesired in China.

Xi's frequent meetings with foreign leaders, for instance, are designed to build personal relationships and to foster trust and cooperation. By cultivating strong relationships with leaders like Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi, Xi is able to promote China's interests and to advance its global agenda.

The Concept of "Harmony"

Harmony (he和平) is a central concept in Chinese philosophy, emphasizing the importance of balance, cooperation, and mutual respect. China's pursuit of a "harmonious world" and its emphasis on "win-win cooperation" reflect this philosophical tradition, which prioritizes stability and cooperation over conflict and competition. The desire for harmony reflects daoism (道). Daoism, Confucianism, and Buddhism are some of the "Chinese characteristics" that characterize "socialism with Chinese characteristics".

China's approach to international relations, for example, is often characterized by a desire to promote harmony and cooperation. The country's emphasis on multilateralism and its support for international institutions like the United Nations reflect its commitment to promoting global stability and cooperation. This is also reflected in the fact China contributes the most peacekeeping troops to the UN peacekeeping forces.

The Legacy of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism

China's experience with imperialism and foreign domination has left a lasting impact on its approach to international relations. The country's anti-imperialist and anti-hegemonic sentiments continue to influence its foreign policy, particularly in its relations with the United States and other major powers.

China's criticism of American hegemony, for instance, is driven by a desire to promote a more multipolar world order. By challenging American dominance China is attempting to create a more equitable and just international system: this can however be harmonized. Likewise China can, and historically did, rally support in the developing world around anti-imperialism. The current idea somewhat reflective thereof is the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. Perhaps also the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) may also be seen as a reflection of past anti-imperialism ideology.

The Importance of Economic Power

It is no secret Chinese people enjoy and desire wealth and are highly productive albeit sharp traders. China's historical experience has taught it that economic power is essential for national strength and security. The country's rapid economic growth and its pursuit of economic dominance are driven by a desire to ensure its national security and to reclaim its rightful place as a global leader. China's economic rise, e.g., enables it to project its power and influence globally. China's investments in infrastructure development, technology, and innovation have created a powerful engine for growth, which is driving its emergence as a global leader.

China's contemporary foreign policy is deeply rooted in its historical experience. China's pursuit of "global common prosperity", its emphasis on "win-win cooperation," and its desire to promote a "harmonious world" are all reflective of its historical traditions and cultural values. By understanding the historical context of China's foreign policy, we can better appreciate the complexities and nuances of China's approach to international relations.

Note that none of this went into lessons and influences from the Spring an Autumn Period or Warring States Era, that I am currently writing up as one of my book projects…

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When the enemy's so-called leadership and command structure is riddled with dishonesty, hypocrisy, and corruption, inducing the enemy to destroy itself is child's play. Appealing to egos is fairly easy. Going forward expect mutinies and rebellions in Russia, especially among those influenced by the CPRF. Eventually the oppressors enforcers flip and become your allies.