I was wrong: Trump won. US Foreign Policy...
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First, I apologize for being wrong about the election, though I am specialized in foreign policy, not domestic politics. I ought, it seems, to have kept my trap shut. Although my area of expertise lies in foreign policy rather than domestic politics, I misjudged this outcome and should have exercised more caution in making any definitive statements.
The U.S. presidential election has increasingly become a razor-thin 51% affair over the past two decades. This closeness is due, in large part, to the refined use of polling, data analytics, and the immense reach of digital platforms, which heighten partisanship and enhance the strategic precision with which each party targets voters. My initial forecast leaned on Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" system, a historically reliable predictor of election outcomes. However, in this instance, both Lichtman and I were incorrect. This miscalculation offers lessons about the complexities of modern American politics, which is a landscape that has proven more volatile than any formula or historical precedent could account for.
However, it’s now clear that Donald Trump will be shaping U.S. foreign policy for the next four years, with significant implications for America's stance on various global issues. His track record suggests that we can expect a series of consistent themes, though the nature of his approach means that ambiguity will likely be a hallmark of his policy framework.
One prominent aspect of Trump’s foreign policy approach is his stance on NATO. I anticipate that he will push for greater financial contributions from European allies, urging them to shoulder more of the alliance's economic burden. However, this push may come at the cost of undermining NATO’s cohesion, as Trump’s penchant for unilateral decision-making often sends mixed signals to allies. While he may continue to uphold some commitments to NATO, his lack of a predictable and cohesive strategy could introduce a degree of instability that weakens the alliance’s overall sense of unity.
When it comes to Ukraine, we can expect a similar stance of calculated ambivalence. Trump may continue supporting Ukraine in its resistance against Russian aggression, but this support is likely to be passive, offered more for appearances than as a show of genuine strategic commitment. Instead of taking decisive action, Trump’s approach will likely be marked by hesitancy, relying on smaller measures that maintain an appearance of support without entangling the U.S. too deeply. This might appeal to his base, who prefer a less interventionist foreign policy, but it could send troubling signals to U.S. allies and adversaries alike.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Trump’s influence will likely be felt in a somewhat paradoxical way. I do not expect his administration to establish a Pacific-area treaty organization (akin to NATO) as a direct counterbalance to China. However, this may inadvertently lead regional powers, particularly Japan, to take up the mantle of forming their own alliances. Japan, which has increasingly asserted its military independence, could find itself taking on a leadership role in a regional security pact, responding to both China's growing influence and a perceived lack of U.S. commitment.
Additionally, I foresee that Trump will steer clear of multilateral economic arrangements in the Pacific, such as a transpacific trade area, and will instead focus on bilateral trade deals or ad hoc arrangements that favor U.S. interests. Trump’s stance on trade, in general, will likely remain protectionist, with a priority on what he perceives as "fair" trade over free trade. We can expect a defensive foreign policy posture, with minimal new military interventions abroad. However, Trump’s approach will likely include a strong stance against China on trade, setting the stage for a contentious era of tariffs and economic rivalry. His methods may not involve direct conflict, but his emphasis on tariffs and restrictions could lead to a protracted economic "war" with China, destabilizing global markets and impacting U.S. relations with other trade partners as well.
Although Trump’s governance style relies heavily on creating uncertainty—often using unpredictability as a tool to gain leverage in negotiations—this style also creates challenges. International alliances, treaties, and trade deals benefit from stability and predictability, qualities that Trump’s approach to governance often lacks. He is unlikely to formally withdraw from organizations like NATO, the WTO, or the UN, but his administration’s erratic commitment will likely weaken these institutions. Such uncertainty can erode trust among allies, embolden adversaries, and disrupt the very systems of global cooperation that the United States has historically championed.
In closing, I apologize once again for my earlier miscalculation. In attempting to predict the outcome of the 2024 election, I underestimated the unique dynamics of our current political landscape and the extent to which American politics has become unpredictable. This election has underscored the importance of not relying solely on models or past trends to understand an increasingly complex and divided nation. As we look ahead to the next four years, we must approach U.S. foreign policy with a calculated + understanding of the shifting domestic forces driving it. This is a time of recalibration, where the old norms of predictability and stability are giving way to new, often disconcerting, patterns of governance.
Word of the Day:
Here are the translations for "president-elect":
- English: President-elect (n)
- French: Président élu
- Spanish: Presidente electo
- German: Der gewählte Präsident (m)
- Estonian: Valitud president (m)
- Russian: Избранный президент (m)
- Ukrainian: Обраний президент (m)
- Mandarin Chinese: 当选总统 (dāng xuǎn zǒng tǒng)
And the translations for the sentence:
- English: Trump is now the president-elect.
- French: Trump est maintenant le président élu.
- Spanish: Trump es ahora el presidente electo.
- German: Trump ist jetzt der gewählte Präsident.
- Estonian: Trump on nüüd valitud president.
- Russian: Трамп теперь избранный президент.
- Ukrainian: Трамп тепер обраний президент.
- Mandarin Chinese: 特朗普现在是当选总统。 (Tè lǎng pǔ xiàn zài shì dāng xuǎn zǒng tǒng)