If you see this man: Kill him.
Russia's Future: Kotkin's Blind Spots (analysis)
I mean Putin, not Kotkin. If you see Kotkin buy his Book & ask for an autograph. But if you see Putin just kill him.
The Future of Russia: Kotkin’s Blind Spots
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Russia's future is precarious; high likelihood of fragmentation and independence for occupied nations. Contrary to Steve Kotkin's unrealistic but optimistic vision, Russia's history of invsion after invasion, lack of liberal revolutions, and consequent absence of a rule of law culture make it unlikely to transition into a democratic state like France. Instead, Russia likeliest to splinter into smaller states. Muscovy faces a bleak future while other republics like Novgorod, Komi, Mari, Nenets, Yakutia will thrive. The ongoing war in Ukraine will ultimately lead to Russia's defeat. Negotiating with Putin's regime is futile because he & his cronies are violent, criminal, dishonest, deceptive. The only way to prevent further Russian aggression is to punish the criminal regime and liberate all occupied regions Russia ever conquered. Territorial concessions to Russia would reward its criminal behavior. Potential outcomes range from a neofascist (rump) Russia to a Chinese & / or German vassal, with the most likely scenario being the break-up of the “Russian” Federation into several states. China's future is likely to be more prosperous and democratic, regardless of external perceptions or expectations. China likely to have great influence in the “Russian” (or formerly Russian) far east.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. Introduction
II. Kotkin's Mistaken Views on Russia's Future
III. A Neofascist, Nazbol Russia
IV. A Communist Takeover
V. A German Vassal State
VI. Conclusion
I: Introduction:
Steve Kotkin, a renowned expert on Russia and professor of history and international affairs at Princeton University, has long been a prominent voice in the discussion of Russia's future. In his writings and public statements, Kotkin has consistently expressed an optimistic view of Russia's prospects, predicting that Russia will eventually transition towards a more democratic and Western-oriented path. According to Kotkin, Russia's future lies in its ability to ultimately integrate with the West, by eventually adopting liberal democratic values, ultimately abandoning its authoritarian tendencies.
However, this rosy outlook on Russia's future is overly optimistic, even at times unrealistic. It is not wishful thinking but overlooks other futures Russia is likelier or much likelier to take. Kotkin's predictions are based on a selective understanding of Russia's history, politics, and culture, that under-estimates the influences of climate, geography, and similar path-dependent constraints, thereby overlooking the very real possibility of less rosy alternative outcomes. While Kotkin's views may be comforting to those who wish to see Russia become a more responsible and democratic member of the international community, that is terribly unlikely to occur.
This essay argues that Kotkin's predictions for Russia's future are overly optimistic and unrealistic, and that there are other possible outcomes that he omits. Specifically, this essay will explore the alternatives Kotkin omits: 1) a neofascist and/or nazbol Russia, 2) a communist takeover by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), possibly in solidarity with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) , and 3) a German vassal state, possibly in cooperation with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Any of these three outcomes are plausible, merit consideration and are likelier outcomes than Kotkin's optimistic hoped for vision of Russia as a giant …France. By examining these alternative outcomes, this essay will provide a more nuanced and realistic understanding of Russia's future, one that takes into account Russia's complex history, politics, and culture.
II: Kotkin's Mistaken Views on Russia's Future
Steve Kotkin's predictions for Russia's future are based on a flawed understanding of Russia's history, politics, and culture. According to Kotkin, Russia has a path of liberalization and democratization, eventually becoming a Western-style democracy similar to France. His view is overly optimistic and overlooks Russian history.
Kotkin's idea that Russia will somehow turn into France is particularly problematic. This notion assumes that Russia can simply abandon its authoritarian traditions and adopt liberal democratic values, without any consideration for Russia's complex history, cultural identity, or political institutions. The facts are ugly, and preclude Western liberalism. It is an ugly fact that Russia often gets invaded by foreign countries, if for no other reason than their desire to plunder natural resources. Meanwhile, Russia has a terribly severe inhospitable climate. Both these facts greatly constrain Russia’s government. At least the very cold six month long winters make the former probleminto a Former Problem. Would be conquerors that invade Russia usually wind up first cold, then hungry, and finally dead. These facts alone explain why Russians want and need a powerful authoritarian state. Add to those facts Russia's own wars of conquest and colonization, add Russian criminality and lawlessness, and mix up with various messianic, millenial, and utopian ideas purporting to escape all that. Season liberally with plenty of vodka. In short, the idea that Russia will one day be at least peaeceful if not liberal is not realistic.
Consequent to climactic and security constraints, Russia's current political system is designed to maintain the power and influence of the Russian ruling elite, rather than to promote democratic values or protect human rights. This is because of the hellish climate, grabby invading neighbors, and the consequent absense of rule of law and liberal democracy.
Kotkin's views are also unrealistic given Russia's current political climate. Russia is and has since centuries, even a millenium, been ruled by an authoritarian regime that has consistently demonstrated its willingness to suppress dissent, manipulate elections, and violate human rights. At least as often as not in the past millenium the regime in Moscow has not been authoritarian: instead, it was totalitarian. The Kremlin's aggressive foreign policy, including its annexation of Crimea and support for separatist movements in eastern Ukraine, is usual for Russia, though Russia's rejection of liberalism has led to increased tensions with the West and a deterioration in Russia's relations with its neighbors. The Russians do not care what you think. They do not share many of your values. Get used to that.
Kotkin's errors in judgment could have serious consequences for U.S. foreign policy and the international community. If policymakers and analysts accept Kotkin's optimistic views of Russia's future, they may underestimate the risks and challenges posed by Russia's authoritarian regime. This could lead to a failure to develop effective strategies for dealing with Russia's aggression, or to a lack of preparedness for potential crises or conflicts: say, communist restoration, neo-fascism, coup, revolution, civil war, a vassal state, all of which are currently possible. Correct choices can however foreclose at least some of these. None of these outcomes are good, but some of these outcomes are less undesireable than others.
In sum, Kotkin's predictions for Russia's future are overly optimistic and unrealistic, and ignore the complex and often apparently contradictory nature of Russian politics. His views are based on an understanding of Russia's history, politics, and culture that overlooks the power of climate, geography, demography, and history on Russia's possible futures. This could have serious consequences for U.S. foreign policy and the international community. It is therefore essential to consider alternative scenarios and to develop a more nuanced and realistic understanding of Russia's future.
III: A Neofascist, Nazbol Russia: A Terrible Yet Entirely Possible Future Outcome
What do people and people's do in the face of grinding poverty, their own lack of power, and institutional failure? Why, they call for a strong state and resort to nationalism and aggressivity of course. Unhappy people can and sometimes do terrible things in consequence if only out of desperation. And what does aggressive ultra-nationalism look like? Well, Hitler is one example.
A neofascist, nazbol Russia is a possible future outcome in which Russia adopts a nationalist and authoritarian ideology that combines elements of fascism and communism. This ideology, known as national bolshevism, is characterized by a strong emphasis on national identity, a rejection of liberal democracy and human rights, and a belief in the need for a strong, authoritarian state.
One of the key proponents of national bolshevism in Russia is Alexander Dugin, a philosopher and political scientist who has been influential in shaping Russia's nationalist ideology. Dugin's ideas, which are based on a mix of fascist and communist principles, emphasize the need for a strong, authoritarian state that can protect Russia's national interests and promote its cultural and spiritual values. Another key figure in the development of national bolshevism in Russia is Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. Gerasimov has been a vocal proponent of the idea that Russia needs to adopt a more aggressive and assertive foreign policy, and has advocated for the use of military force to protect Russia's national interests.
Given Russia's current political climate, a neofascist, nazbol Russia is a possible future outcome. Russia's nationalist ideology is already strong, and there is a growing sense of disillusionment with liberal democracy and the West. The popularity of nationalist ideologies, combined with the Kremlin's increasing authoritarianism and aggression, creates fertile soil for the growth of national bolshevism.
The implications of a neofascist, nazbol Russia for the international community are severe. A Russia that adopts this ideology would be likely to be even more aggressive and expansionist, with global vision, and would be likely to use military force to achieve its goals including more Russian state sponsored terrorism, guerilla wars, and proxy wars. This could lead to increased tensions with Russia's neighbors, as well as with the West, and could potentially lead to wars of various kinds. Furthermore, a neofascist nazbol Russia would also be characterized by a significant degradation in human rights protections and the rule of law. The Kremlin would almost certainly use its authoritarian powers to violently suppress dissent and opposition, and to impose its nationalist ideology on the population: it would not be a tough sell. Russians are generally patriotic, and when Russians claim to be patriotic they mean it. Ultra-nationalism would almost certainly lead to a significant increase in human rights abuses, including the suppression of minority groups and the persecution of political opponents.
In conclusion, a neofascist, nazbol Russia is an entirely possible future outcome that should be taken seriously by the international community. The growth of nationalist ideologies in Russia, combined with the Kremlin's increasing authoritarianism and aggression, creates a fertile ground for the growth of national bolshevism. The implications of this outcome are severe, and could lead to increased tensions, wars, and human rights abuses.
Part IV: Communist Restoration: Another Possible Future Outcome
A communist takeover in Russia is another possible future outcome that must be considered. The Russian Communist Party, which was once the dominant force in Russian politics, has been gaining popularity in recent years, and there is a growing sense of nostalgia for the Soviet era among many Russians.
The possibility of a communist takeover in Russia is not as far-fetched as it may seem. The Russian Communist Party has been steadily gaining support in recent years, and its leader, Gennady Zyuganov, has been a vocal critic of the current government's policies. The party's popularity is largely due to its ability to tap into the nostalgia for the Soviet era, as well as its promise to restore Russia's great power status and provide economic stability.
Furthermore, the current political climate in Russia is ripe for a communist takeover. The Kremlin's increasing authoritarianism and corruption have led to widespread disillusionment with the current government, and many Russians are looking for an alternative. The Russian Communist Party's promise to restore Russia's great power status and provide economic stability resonates with many Russians who feel that the country has lost its way.
One may suppose the government of China would not be displeased were the CPRF to take over Russia -- especially if the CPRF declared itself to be in solidarity with the Chinese Communist Party. I expect Kotkin was aware of this possibility and chose not to adress it, since to liberal capitalists it is anathema.
The implications of communist restoration in Russia would be significant for the international community. A communist Russia would likely be more authoritarian and less democratic, with a greater emphasis on state control and repression of dissent. This could lead to increased human rights abuses, as well as a more aggressive foreign policy. Additionally, communist restoration in Russia could also lead to a reversal of Russia's economic reforms, with a greater emphasis on state ownership and control of the economy. This could lead to a decline in economic growth and stability, as well as a decrease in foreign investment.
The international community would also need to be concerned about the potential for a communist Russia to become more isolated and confrontational. A communist government in Russia would likely be more hostile to the West and more supportive of authoritarian regimes around the world. This could lead to increased tensions between Russia and the West, as well as a greater risk of conflict.
In conclusion, a communist takeover in Russia is a possible future outcome that should be taken seriously. The Russian Communist Party's growing popularity, combined with the current political climate in Russia, creates a fertile ground for a communist takeover. The implications of this outcome would be significant for the international community, and could lead to increased authoritarianism, human rights abuses, and conflict.
Part V: A German Vassal State: A Final Possible Future Outcome
As Russia's economy continues to be destroyed, another possible future outcome becomes likelier. Russia might become a German vassal state. This scenario may seem far-fetched, but it's essential to consider the potential implications of such an outcome, especially given Russia's current economic and political situation.
Historically, Russia's economic dependence on Germany is significant constant. Germany regularly featured as Russia's largest trading partner prior to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Russia and Germany have a long history of economic cooperation punctuated by mutual destructionin War. However, Russia's economic woes, including its reliance on oil exports and lack of economic diversification, have made it increasingly vulnerable to external pressures. Germany, with its strong industrial economy and dominant economic position in the European Union, is well-positioned to take advantage of Russia's weaknesses.
Politically, Russia's isolation from the international community has created an environment in which Russia is increasingly dependent on Germany for support. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coupled with Western sanctions, has left Russia with limited options for economic and political cooperation. Germany, as a key player in the EU, has been able to exert significant influence over Russia's foreign policy, often acting as a mediator between Russia and the West.
Given these factors, it's possible to envision a scenario in which Russia, after its inevitable defeat in Ukraine, returns to dependence on Germany, both economically and politically. This could manifest in several ways, including:
* Increased German investment in Russia's economy, potentially leading to greate German control over key sectors such as energy and manufacturing.
* Russia's adoption of German-backed economic policies, potentially leading to a loss of sovereignty over its own economic decision-making.
* Germany's increased influence over Russia's foreign policy, potentially leading to a loss of independence in international relations.
The implications of a German vassal state for the international community are far-reaching and potentially destabilizing. A Russia beholden to Germany could lead to:
* Increased instability in the far east, as Russia's loss of independence could create a power vacuum that other nations might seek to fill.
* A shift in the global balance of power, as Germany's influence over Russia could give it greater leverage in international relations.
* A potential increase in conflicts, as Russia's loss of sovereignty could lead to resentment and aggression towards its perceived overlords.
Russia or rump-Russia as a German vassal state could have significant implications for the European Union as a whole. It could lead to a reorientation of the EU's priorities, with Germany's interests taking precedence over those of other member states. This could create tensions within the EU, potentially leading to a fragmentation of the bloc.
Kotkin does consider the possibility of Russia as a Chinese client state but has not considered the possibility of Russia being a client state of China in the East and Germany in the West or of China simply annexing parts of Russia. Any of these outcomes are possible and are much likelier than Russia as a giant France. Russia will likely always be cold and thus relatively isolated. -30 is better than -50 but will not change the humancondition there much. Perhaps there will be no more seven months winters - just six month ones. Oh, and winter means snow and ice. Most of Europe does not really have winter, which is why Russian winter always shocks and usually finishes off the would-be conquerors, who also tend not to notice just how vastrussia truly is. No wonder they thought they could take over the world, what with already governing about 1/4 of the world’s land.
In conclusion it is entirely possible that Russia becomes a German vassal state may seem especially if in concert with China. So, we must consider the potential implications of Russia as a vassal state. Russia's economic and political dependence on Germany is a historic fact. So, it's possible to envision a scenario in which this dependence greatly increases after Russia loses its foolish war. “I did not see that coming.”..
VI. Recapitualtion:
Russia's future is bleak, with the likelist outcome resembling the collapse of Nazi Germany, leading to the independence of occupied nations and the possibility of a Marshall Plan 2.0 involving the EU and potentially China. Russia will ultimately lose its ongoing war crime in Ukraine and be split apart, with occupied nations gaining independence. Russia's history of being ruled by the Mongol horde, its lack of liberal revolutions, and the constant absence of the rule of law culture in Russia make it extremely unlikely for Russia to reform as Kotkin and other liberals desire, even after many more decades of further reforms. Russia has been “backward” for centuries: Russia’s climate will always be hard, Russia’s enemies will always want to plunder “Russian” resources, so the Russian state seeks strength above all, leaving nicer values like rule of law or democracy as mere ideals.
Even if Russia could reform as Kotkin and other imagine, negotiating with a lying, thieving war criminal like Putin is impossible: even if he were rational he cannot be trusted. Lies, half truths, projection and deception typify Russian governance. It is not merely Putin who cannot be trusted to keep his word. Lavrov, Sakharova, Peskov, Medvedev, Shoigu, Gerasimov, dugin or any other prominent in the current Russian government cannot be truste. Territorial "concessions" to Russia would reward its criminal behavior and give it an incentive to commit more crimes, and the chance to rest, refit, rearm and attack Ukraine again. What if they really hate you? What if they really hate your values? They do. The only way to prevent Russia from rearming and striking again is to punish the criminal regime and liberate the regions conquered by Muscovy.
The dismantling of the Russian Federation is thus envisioned as the likeliest outcome, reducing Russia into its historical regions: Novgorod and Muscovy, Komi, Mari, Nenets Republics, Yakutia, Bashkortistan, Buryatia & Chechnyia inter alia. Kotkin's envisioned future for Russia and cries for negotiations are unrealistic and overly optimistic as past experiences repeatedly prove. Kotkin appears to prioritize desirable futures for Russia over likely outcomes, underestimating the severity of the situation.
VI. Conclusion
Stephen Kotkin presents a limited and overly optimistic view of Russia's potential trajectories. However, as we have explored in this essay, there are alternative possible futures for Russia that Kotkin omits, each with its own set of implications for the international community. These alternative outcomes include a neofascist nazbol Russia, characterized by a rise in nationalist and authoritarian sentiment; communist restoration, marked by a resurgence of Soviet-style ideology and governance; and a German or Sino-German vassal state or states, in which rump Russia becomes increasingly dependent on Germany economically and politically.
We must consider & plan for these alternative outcomes in order to develop a more nuanced and realistic understanding of Russia's future. By acknowledging the possibility of these scenarios, policymakers and analysts can better prepare for the challenges and opportunities that may arise.
The implications of these outcomes for U.S. foreign policy and the international community are far-reaching. A neofascist, nazbol Russia could lead to increased tensions and conflict in Europe, while a communist takeover could result in a renewed ideological rivalry between Russia and the West. A German vassal state, on the other hand, could lead to a shift in the global balance of power, with Germany's influence over Russia giving it greater leverage in international relations.
Finally: Kotkin is mistaken in his assessment of China and the CCP, equating them to Russia and the CPUSSR. China will grow more prosperous and democratic, regardless of external perceptions or desires. But that is the topic for another essay.
Putin is a dead man walking. Ukraine will win. But at what cost? I want the cost in Ukrainian lives to be as low as possible.
Baltic Republican Party openly calling for Kaliningrad Independence…
don’t think i wouldn’t do it. i totally would. it would make my Mother proud!
The GHOST of John Mearsheimer on Kotkin
(NOT John Mearsheimer!) says this about Kotkin, above:
The pursuit of power and the effective exercise of leverage are essential components of successful diplomacy, as Kotkin astutely observes. The notion that dialogue alone can achieve meaningful results is a naive fantasy, and past administrations have failed to grasp this fundamental principle. The challenge of engaging with illiberal regimes within the liberal international order is a pressing concern, as it raises questions about how to balance the need for cooperation with the imperative of upholding shared values and promoting reciprocity.
When it comes to Putin, Kotkin correctly identifies the Russian leader's primary objective as the survival of his regime, which is inherently fragile due to the lack of a clear succession mechanism. Rather than pursuing regime change, Kotkin advocates for a more nuanced approach that applies pressure on Putin's regime while fostering political alternatives within Russia and exploiting economic and political vulnerabilities to encourage behavioral modification.
In the context of Ukraine, Kotkin rightly emphasizes the need for a unified Western stance to counter Russian aggression. He proposes an armistice that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and does not legally recognize Russian annexation of territories, which would require Putin to perceive a credible threat to his regime's survival. This approach acknowledges the harsh realities of power politics and the need for a robust response to Russian aggression.
Regarding Russia-China relations, Kotkin notes the trajectory towards closer military cooperation, but also highlights the tensions arising from Russia's reluctance to become a vassal state of China. He warns of the risks of excessive technology sharing between their defense industries and underscores the importance of maintaining a robust defense industrial complex in the United States. This perspective reflects a clear-eyed understanding of the competitive dynamics at play in international relations and the need for the United States to maintain its military edge.
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I think I was high on plane again… i dunno… head’s still spinnin’… I saw a Felon … can’t stop thinking of plane someone help me, I’m addicted to Plane!
Ударом со стороны Украины повреждены нефтебаза в Луганске и газопровод https://www.interfax.ru/russia/959476
My oil addiction helps me get throughthe rough patches where planeis playing hard to 杀
Ukrainian citizen, Russian national, serving the Russian army, killifies six Russian orcs in uniform whilst they were sleeping coz his mom in Kharkiv died. and he is still at large! ) He did it for Mother. Run, Forest, Run!
Most men have balls. That man has bowling balls!
https://proficiency1.com/blog/
Far be it from me to suggest the USA might amnesty certain Russian criminals
if{} Swiss-German Journalist Whines about treatment of Russians in Estonia. Liberals are NEVER satisfied https://www.zeit.de/kultur/2024-05/russen-estland-schule-sprache-10nach8
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And here she is! So very beautiful!