I'm definitely going to hell for this.
I did it, i'm glad I did it, and i'd totally do it again. It made my Mother proud!
Cafe Bomb in Saint Petersburge Kills Russian Military Blogger. What was I saying about the ex RUC and literal IRA cooperating again? Hint: not one person who actually lives in Derry likes what went down in Bucha…
"This ends with Putin dead or in the docket for war crimes." -Eric Engle.
Looks like I am in good company: Former-CIA-official: Putin dies or goes to jail.
Word of the day: Silence (v,n), die Stille (n), le silence, el silencio, vaikus, тишина, 安静 c.v. Schweigen to be silent.
“I Wonder what it means?”
The Mossad, also known as “the institute for planning and special operations” is, like most intelligence services, uniquely talented in certain regards, but not qualified in all. This is why local intelligence services’ cooperation is almost always desirable: they know their region better, and so likely can do things better. Now, supposedly, The Institute’s motto is ‘by way of deception, thou shalt do war’. But that really isn’t the case, not that it would be so bad if it were.
After all, as Sun Tzu wrote, “All war is based on deception.” That underscores what I have already said: war is fundamentally different from politics, war is the failure of politics. Why? Well,
As Sun Tzu wrote: “Supreme excellence in the art of war is to defeat the enemy without fighting.” for then your own resources are preserved and you even capture enemy resources thereby. Chinese strategic thought is generally, but not universally, superior to Western strategic thinking. E.g., Clausewitz was catastrophically wrong as German military history has repeatedly shown.
War is the failure of politics, not it's "continuation by other means": negotiation (the political) is fundamentally different from killing (war).
Chinese strategists recognize this, which explains in part their outsize success. Since Turkiye and China will now vie with each other for influence in Central Asia (many Turkic and other Moslem nations) I suggest asking "What would Mustafa Kemal do?"
Based on WW2 he would Not do Clausewitz! (And notice how Turkiye emerged from WW2 in pretty good shape!)
In truth, The Institute’s motto is "Where no counsel is, the people fall, but in the multitude of counselors there is safety." This is in fact the case, whether seen from dialectical materialism, open sourced intelligence analysis, or alliance politics. This is why open source intelligence analysis can bring superior insights leading to better outcomes among allied nations. None of us is as strong as all of us.
People who might disagree on some things might well agree on other things: hence, diplomacy.
I am pro-Turkish however that doesn't change the fact Turkiye plays "both ends against the middle" and seeks to max out its benefits from any and all countries without further regard to transcendental Western ideals.
Hostomel: Death Ride of Russias VVD
It turns out helicopters are more like flying technicals than flying tanks… Airborne forces are highly trained, highly armed … light infantry. They are not heavily armed and once inserted are relatively immobile. Battle after battle, whether Crete, Arnhem, Dian Bien Phu, or even Vyazma shows the fact that airborne forces need immediate relief and resupply from mechanized forces which actually have heavy weapons, ammunition, and fuel. The VVD died at Hostomel and with it most all of Russia’s highly trained infantry.
Turns out helicopters are a lot more like flying technicals than flying tanks. I expect in future they will do insertions 3-5km from contact rather than at 1km or less. Hostomel is one more example of the fact that airborne/air assault are highly trained and motivated light infantry in desperate need of immediate relief and resupply by mechanized units (because you can't fly in gasoline, petroleum, heavy, volatile). Crete, Arnhem, Dien Bien Phu are other examples of the serious limitations facing airborne/air assault.
Call me Captain Obvious, putins-forces-heading-military-defeat-former-russian-commander
Russians dying by hordes from drunk warmaking. Rrussian-military-alcohol-abuse
Girkin agrees with me again! igor-girkin-russia heading for defeat in Ukraine.
Shit mate, after Putin dies lets form up our own PMC xaxaxa
And speaking of Mao!
Winter War 2.0
It took Stalin about a year to sort out which of his generals were loyal AND competent. After which the Finns were finally forced to a truce due to being so badly outnumbered. Putin's had a year, still hasn't done that, and Ukraine is much larger by population than Finland, though its terrain is less defensible. Unlike Stalin Putin has no "zealous revolutionaries", committed ideologues, or other "revolutionary cadre". Instead it is only dishonest corruptionnaires from top to bottom. so I don't expect Russian performance to improve especially since so much of their kit is outdated and much has been destroyed. I expect Ukrainian training and equipment to improve. Hopefully the war will end sooner by decisive war of movement (Bewegungskrieg) rather than later by grinding bloody attrition. But either way: this ends with Putin dead or in the docket for war crimes.
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You want peace? Prepare for war. But there is more to peacebuilding than deterrence. There is also collective security, free trade & cross border investment, and even protection of human rights and prevention of pandemics. War has many causes but it is a man-made disaster and so war can be prevented: and part of prevention is a clear credible deterrent capacity.