Indonesia & Anglo-Chinese Rivalry: Can You Help Solve the Puzzle?
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Opponent Modelling: Understanding Chinese Marxism Using Chinese Culture
"Know yourself and know your enemy and you will win all your battles." – Sun Tzu
The Western world often dismisses Marxism too readily, perceiving it as a lie, a mistake, or both, and consequently, not worth examining. This oversight is a grave error, particularly when it comes to understanding the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its role in shaping China's governance and policies.
For the Chinese, Marxism serves as a powerful explanation for the country's historical experiences, including its division and domination by foreign powers, primarily Western powers. Marxism is the prime ideological driver and justification for the legitimacy of the CCP because it explains why China was poor and weak and how China evolved from abject poverty, war, and famine to moderate prosperity and peace. Chinese Marxism legitimizes the CCP's effective monopoly over governing power and continues to influence China's political and economic trajectory. Though a Western concept, Marxism has been adapted and interpreted by China through a Chinese cultural lens.
Even if Marxism were merely a colossal deception or error, it would still demand our attention, given its profound impact on China's governance and policies. Marxism is the cornerstone of "socialism with Chinese characteristics," and about one-third of the planet was once ruled by Marxist states. Today, Marxism continues to shape the governance of China, North Korea, Vietnam, and Cuba. Understanding Marxist thought is thus crucial for predicting the actions of these nations and influencing them effectively.
Another critical aspect of Chinese governance that Westerners often overlook is its familial character. This blind spot is particularly characteristic of U.S. people, where the governance model resembles a corporation more than a family. In contrast, China's governance has historically been based on the concept of the state as an extension of the clans, the state as the family writ large. This model, rooted in Confucianism, views the emperor, and by extension the ruling party and the Chairman, as the patriarch of the nation with absolute power and authority.
Suppression of free speech and limited democratic input mean that absolutist states are prone to making mistakes and may struggle to correct them once recognized. This phenomenon was evident during the Mao era, where policy errors had profound and often disastrous consequences.
The current Chinese leadership, particularly Xi Jinping, embodies this familial model of governance. Comparisons between Xi Jinping and the emperors of old often draw criticism, primarily because Marxism is inherently anti-imperialist. Yet, there is a kernel of truth in these comparisons. The Chairman of the Party, Premier of the State, and Supreme Commander of China's military are embodied in one individual, consolidating power in a manner reminiscent of historical emperors. Xi Jinping wields unparalleled power and influence. This model implies that the state possesses not only final but also absolute powers. This concentration of power, while allowing for swift decision-making, also raises concerns about lawlessness, echo chambers, and blind spots within the Chinese leadership.
Absolute power usually results in a lack of democratic feedback. The limitations on free speech in China can lead to errors in policy and governance by the Chinese government, as seen during the Mao era. However, recognizing these problems, the Chinese people and the CCP alike aspire to achieve greater democracy, better protection of human rights, and a more robust legal system. Forward-thinking individuals like Wang Huning are likely to propose innovative Chinese solutions for better governance, acknowledging that Marx's ideas, nearly two hundred years on, though influential, are not infallible and may require adaptation to contemporary realities. This underscores the paramount importance of knowing Chinese culture and language, as well as the necessity of engaging with the CCP on its own terms, without preconceived notions or biases. When you express your ideas using others' words and concepts, they are likelier to understand and agree with you. You are also thereby likelier to understand them and to find common ground. Hence the importance of knowing Chinese language, culture, and ideology.
The notion that China is teetering on the brink of collapse or chaos is another common, comfortable, and uninformed Western assumption about China. That expectation is rooted in a lack of understanding of the CCP's commitment to self-reflection and improvement. The party is acutely aware of its past mistakes and is resolutely committed to correcting them, learning from its experiences, and adapting to the changing domestic and global landscape. It is an organization clearly capable of learning from past experiences and improving itself.
By recognizing the significance of Marxism in China's development and engaging with the CCP in a nuanced, informed, and empathetic manner, Western nations can foster more effective cooperation, mutual understanding, and trust. This requires knowledge of Chinese language and a deep appreciation of China's language, culture, history, and ideologies, as well as a willingness to set aside differences and engage in constructive dialogue. The CCP's emphasis on "Chinese characteristics" and Marxist ideology reflects a genuine commitment to creating a distinctively Chinese model of development, one that blends the principles of socialism with the realities of China's complex society and economy.
As China continues to evolve, it is essential to recognize that the CCP is not a monolithic entity, but rather a complex, dynamic, and adaptive organization capable of reform and innovation. The party's leadership is aware of the need to balance the competing demands of economic growth, social stability, and environmental sustainability, and is actively seeking to address these challenges through a range of innovative policies and initiatives. By engaging with the CCP in a spirit of mutual respect and understanding, Western nations can help foster a more cooperative and collaborative relationship. This requires a willingness to listen, to learn, and to adapt, recognizing that China's rise is not a zero-sum game, but an opportunity for mutual benefit and cooperation. We must move beyond simplistic or stereotypical portrayals of China and the CCP, and engage with the complexity, diversity, and wealth of Chinese culture, history, and ideology. A nuanced understanding of the CCP's ideology, its strengths and weaknesses, and its capacity for adaptation and innovation is essential. Thereby, Western nations can create a more constructive and cooperative relationship with China, based on mutual respect, trust, and understanding. This is a pragmatic recognition of the need for cooperation and collaboration in an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world.
In conclusion, opponent modelling, or understanding the ideologies and perspectives of others, is essential in today's complex geopolitical landscape. By grasping the intricacies of Marxism through a Chinese cultural lens, Western nations can develop more effective strategies for engaging with China. As China continues to evolve and adapt, it is crucial to monitor party statements, engage with the CCP on its own terms, and recognize the significance of Marxism in China's development. By doing so, Western nations can foster more effective cooperation, mutual understanding, and trust, helping to create a more peaceful, stable, and prosperous world.
Why Indonesia?
As the world's two superpowers, the United States and China increasingly vie for influence in the Asia-Pacific region, Indonesia will emerge as a critical battleground due to its strategic location, abundant natural resources, and economically influential Chinese minority. China's ambitions to establish naval bases throughout the Pacific, coupled with its governance model and the significant ethnic Chinese population in Indonesia, create competition and potential conflicts between China and the USA for power and influence. Both countries, driven by their respective economic ideologies, seek to strengthen ties with Indonesia, strategically positioned at the crossroads of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Here we examine the likely future course of US-China rivalry in Indonesia, the dynamics involving Indonesia's Chinese minority, and the strategic considerations shaping Indonesian foreign policy.
Geopolitical Significance of Indonesia
Indonesia's geographic position encompasses some of the world’s most vital maritime chokepoints, including the Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok Straits. These waterways are crucial for global trade, especially for energy supplies flowing from the Middle East to East Asia. Control over or influence in Indonesia offers a strategic advantage in these maritime routes, making it highly valuable for both the United States and China. Indonesia’s vast archipelago, with over 17,000 islands, provides numerous potential naval bases and maritime outposts, enhancing its strategic value for projecting naval power in the region. For China, securing access to Indonesian ports supports its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by facilitating its maritime Silk Road. For the United States, maintaining influence in Indonesia is essential to containing Chinese expansion and ensuring freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific.
The Indonesian Chinese Minority
Though only about 3% of Indonesia's population, the Indonesian Chinese minority holds significant economic influence, dominating business and commercial sectors and acting as crucial intermediaries in economic dealings. Historically, this community has faced severe discrimination and violence, particularly during the Suharto era, leading to cautious political involvement. In Sino-Indonesian relations, the Indonesian Chinese community represents both an opportunity and a challenge. Their economic power can deepen economic ties with China, given cultural and familial connections. However, any perception of undue Chinese influence via this minority can provoke nationalist backlash, complicating Jakarta’s diplomacy.
US-China Rivalry: Economic Cooperation and Military Competition
The US and China’s rivalry in Indonesia is characterized by a dichotomy of economic cooperation and military competition. While the USA ideologically supports China's efforts to promote peace and prosperity through international trade and investment, it resolutely resists any attempts by China to secure basing rights in Indonesia. This complex relationship can be summed up with the Maoist concept of "unity in conflict," where the two nations pursue economic cooperation and global stability yet clash over issues like freedom of navigation and human rights.
China's growing industrial power and significant investments through the BRI have already made substantial inroads in Indonesia, while the USA has been slower to respond with its infrastructure initiatives. The different governance models of China and the USA—China's dominant Communist Party versus the USA's democratic system—also influence their approaches to economic development and international cooperation. The USA should use bilateralism and functionalism to guide its policy towards China, focusing on areas of common interest such as trade and investment to create a pragmatic framework for engagement. However, China's inability to accept a multilateral rules-based world order remains a significant obstacle to deeper cooperation.
Indonesia’s Strategic Calculus and Policy of Neutrality
Indonesia's foreign policy, rooted in the principles of "bebas aktif" (free and active), emphasizes an independent and proactive stance in international affairs. This approach entails neutrality, allowing Indonesia to leverage its strategic position without becoming overly dependent on any single power. Given the intensifying US-China rivalry, Indonesia is likely to pursue neutrality, aiming to extract benefits from both sides while avoiding entanglement in their geopolitical struggle. The Indonesian government has pragmatically sought economic investments from China while strengthening defense ties with the United States and other Western allies. This dual strategy underscores Indonesia’s intent to maximize economic gains while ensuring its sovereignty and security.
The US Strategy: Offshore Balancing and Militarily Containing China
From a defensive realist perspective, the United States views China's rise with concern, particularly regarding its military expansion in the South China Sea and beyond. As an offshore balancer, the US aims to prevent any single power from dominating the Eurasian landmass and its peripheries. Indonesia's cooperation is crucial in this context. The US can exert pressure on Indonesia to limit China’s military influence by leveraging security assistance, military training programs, and joint exercises. Additionally, the US can offer sophisticated defense technology and intelligence sharing to bolster Indonesia’s defensive capabilities. By enhancing Indonesia's maritime security infrastructure, such as through the construction of naval bases and radar installations, the US can effectively deny the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) access to critical maritime routes and potential bases within Indonesia.
Indonesia’s Path Forward
Indonesia’s strategic neutrality will be continually tested as the US-China rivalry intensifies. Jakarta’s leaders will need to carefully balance their actions to avoid alienating either power while safeguarding national interests. This balancing act will require astute diplomacy, economic acumen, and robust defense strategies. Indonesia's future as a neutral power hinges on its ability to assert its sovereignty and strategic independence. By fostering regional cooperation through ASEAN and other multilateral forums, Indonesia can amplify its influence and mitigate pressures from both the US and China. Furthermore, diversifying economic partnerships and investing in indigenous defense capabilities will reduce vulnerability to external coercion.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Indonesia stands at a strategic crossroads in the US-China great power rivalry. Its geographic and geopolitical significance makes it a coveted partner and a potential flashpoint. While the US can employ offshore balancing to limit Chinese military encroachments, Indonesia’s pursuit of neutrality and strategic autonomy will define its role in the emerging multipolar order. As Machiavelli might counsel, in this intricate game of power politics, Indonesia must be both a fox and a lion—cunning in diplomacy, that will seek to benefit from both China and the USA yet formidable in defense and thus rebuffing Chinese entreaties for basing rights while accepting U.S. defense cooperation.
The outcome of their rivalry will have significant implications for the future of the Asia-Pacific region, and indeed, for the world at large. Will the USA and China be able to find a way to cooperate on issues of common interest, while competing fiercely in areas where their interests diverge? Or will their rivalry escalate into a full-blown conflict, with far-reaching consequences for global stability and security?
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BARACK OBAMA AND INDONESIA: SHADOWY PAST, MURKY FUTURE?
Barack Obama, the 44th President of the United States, has an origin story that reads like a spy novel mixed with a coming-of-age saga. Born in Honolulu, Hawaii, in 1961, Obama's journey to the White House is entwined with international intrigue, Cold War tensions, and the vibrant cultural tapestry of Indonesia.
When Obama was just six years old, his mother, Stanley Ann Dunham, remarried an Indonesian man named Lolo Soetoro. The family moved to Jakarta in 1967, at a time when Indonesia was a focal point in the geopolitical chess game between the United States and the Soviet Union. Indonesia, under President Sukarno, had been leaning towards the Soviet bloc, which worried the American administration. Following a coup and the rise of General Suharto, Indonesia realigned itself with the West, much to Washington's relief.
Living in Jakarta during this transformative period, young Barry, as he was known then, was exposed to a melting pot of cultures, religions, and languages. He attended local schools, played with neighborhood kids, and ate exotic foods. His stepfather Lolo worked as a geologist for an American oil company, a profession that might have given him connections with American corporate and governmental entities. Dunham, a dedicated anthropologist, worked on rural development projects, further embedding the family in Indonesian society.
Rumors and whispers have long surrounded the true nature of Dunham's work in Indonesia. Some conspiracy theories suggest that her development work was a cover for CIA activities during a critical period of anti-communist efforts in Southeast Asia. While there is no concrete evidence to substantiate these claims, they add an aura of mystery to Obama's formative years. The notion that Obama's parents might have had connections with intelligence agencies has fueled speculation about the young Obama himself being part of a larger geopolitical narrative.
During Obama's time in Indonesia, the country was navigating its post-colonial identity and aligning itself with Western interests, partly to attract aid and investment. This context provided Obama with a firsthand understanding of international relations and the delicate balance of power, knowledge that would later prove invaluable in his political career.
After four years in Indonesia, Obama returned to Hawaii to live with his grandparents. His return to the U.S. marked the beginning of a journey that would lead him through prestigious institutions like Columbia University and Harvard Law School, and eventually to the Illinois State Senate, the U.S. Senate, and the White House. Yet, his Indonesian experience remained a defining chapter of his life, shaping his worldview and his approach to foreign policy.
As President, Obama’s foreign policy was marked by a focus on diplomacy and multilateralism. He championed the "pivot to Asia," a strategic reorientation of U.S. foreign policy to better engage with the rapidly growing Asia-Pacific region. This pivot acknowledged the importance of countries like Indonesia in global economics and security.
The intriguing question remains: How much of Obama's early exposure to international politics and potential familial connections to intelligence work influenced his approach to governance and diplomacy? Did his unique upbringing equip him with an intuitive grasp of global dynamics that would be reflected in his presidential policies?
Looking ahead, as Barack Obama continues to shape his post-presidential legacy, one wonders if he will leverage his rich international background to become an influential foreign policy educator. Could he harness his experience and insights to guide future leaders in navigating the complexities of global politics? Only time will tell how this compelling story of a boy from Jakarta will continue to unfold on the world stage...
LEARN INDONESIAN
To learn any language quickly start with pronouns, then yes/no, then this/that, then the modal verbs, then verbs for bodily functions, then common objects of daily life, then prepositions. Try to speak exactly like your interlocutor, parroting their words and phrases. Never act like you know things or meanings, no one likes that. Listen more than you talk. Be polite, kind, friendly. Try not to get killed. Legio Patria Nostra, vive la France.
Because Indonesian is a comparatively easy language and apparently related to Malay and Tagalog and especially since Indonesia will be a point of Anglo-Chinese rivalry it is advisable to learn Indonesian since China will seek to create "an Indonesian economic miracle" echoing the Chinese economic miracle of the past 30 years.
Comparative Analysis of Personal Pronouns in Indonesian and English
Personal pronouns are essential in both Indonesian and English languages, serving as substitutes for nouns and making sentences less repetitive and clearer. While both languages use personal pronouns extensively, they do so in different ways, with distinct forms and usage rules. This article explores these differences and provides practical example sentences for better understanding.
Personal Pronouns in English
In English, personal pronouns are categorized based on number (singular or plural), person (first, second, or third), and case (subjective, objective, and possessive). Here is a quick overview:
1. First Person Singular: I, me, my, mine
2. First Person Plural: We, us, our, ours
3. Second Person Singular/Plural: You, your, yours
4. Third Person Singular: He, him, his / She, her, hers / It, its
5. Third Person Plural: They, them, their, theirs
Personal Pronouns in Indonesian
Indonesian personal pronouns also vary based on person and number, but the distinctions are less complex compared to English. Additionally, Indonesian language exhibits a more formal and informal distinction, particularly in the first and second person pronouns. Here are the main pronouns:
1. First Person Singular: Saya (formal), Aku (informal), -ku (possessive suffix)
2. First Person Plural: Kami (exclusive), Kita (inclusive), -kami, -kita (possessive suffix)
3. Second Person Singular: Anda (formal), Kamu (informal), -mu (possessive suffix)
4. Second Person Plural: Kalian (informal)
5. Third Person Singular/Plural: Dia (singular), Mereka (plural), -nya (possessive suffix)
Example Sentences in English and Indonesian
Here are ten basic and useful sentences demonstrating the use of personal pronouns in both languages:
1. I am happy.
- Saya senang. (formal)
- Aku senang. (informal)
2. You are a student.
- Anda adalah seorang siswa. (formal)
- Kamu adalah seorang siswa. (informal)
3. He is my friend.
- Dia adalah teman saya.
4. She loves her cat.
- Dia menyayangi kucingnya.
5. We are going to the market.
- Kami pergi ke pasar. (exclusive)
- Kita pergi ke pasar. (inclusive)
6. They are playing football.
- Mereka bermain sepak bola.
7. This book is mine.
- Buku ini milikku.
8. Our house is big.
- Rumah kami besar. (exclusive)
- Rumah kita besar. (inclusive)
9. Your car is new.
- Mobil Anda baru. (formal)
- Mobilmu baru. (informal)
10. Their children are smart.
- Anak-anak mereka pintar.
Key Differences and Observations
1. Formality: Indonesian has distinct formal and informal pronouns, especially noticeable in the first and second person singular forms. English pronouns do not change based on formality.
2. Inclusivity: Indonesian has separate pronouns for inclusive and exclusive "we" (kita vs. kami), which English lacks.
3. Possessive Suffixes: Indonesian often uses suffixes (-ku, -mu, -nya) to indicate possession, whereas English uses separate possessive pronouns (my, your, his/her/its).
4. Simplicity: Indonesian pronouns are less complex in terms of cases. For example, "dia" serves as both subject and object (he/him, she/her) and "nya" is used for possessive (his/her/its).
5. Plurality: Indonesian does not change pronouns based on plurality except in the second person plural (kalian) and third person plural (mereka), whereas English pronouns have distinct forms for singular and plural.
Understanding these differences enhances communication skills in both languages and highlights the unique features of Indonesian and English pronouns.
The Distinction Between Probability and Likelihood
In mathematical terms, probability and likelihood are concepts that are closely related yet fundamentally different. Probability is a measure of the chance that a particular event will occur. It is a forward-looking concept, calculated before an event happens. Mathematically, for an event AA, the probability is denoted by P(A)P(A), and it satisfies 0≤P(A)≤10≤P(A)≤1. The probabilities of all possible outcomes of a random experiment must sum to 1.
For example, if we have a fair six-sided die, the probability of rolling a 3 is:
Likelihood, on the other hand, is a function of parameters given an observed outcome. It is a concept used primarily in statistical inference. Likelihood quantifies how probable a particular observed data set is, given specific values of the model parameters. If θθ represents parameters and xx represents data, the likelihood function
In essence, while probability deals with predicting future events based on a known model, likelihood deals with estimating model parameters based on observed data.
Probability vs. Likelihood Example
Consider a biased coin with unknown bias θ\thetaθ (the probability of landing heads). Suppose we flip the coin 10 times and observe 7 heads and 3 tails. The probability of getting exactly this outcome (7 heads and 3 tails) for a given θ\thetaθ is:
This expression is also the likelihood function for θθ given the observed data (7 heads and 3 tails). However, when we discuss the likelihood, we treat the observed data as fixed and vary θθ to find the value that maximizes this function, often done in maximum likelihood estimation (MLE).
The Gambler's Fallacy
The gambler's fallacy is the erroneous belief that the occurrence of a random event becomes less likely after it has happened repeatedly or, conversely, that an event is "due" after a series of opposite events. This fallacy arises from a misinterpretation of the nature of probability though it can also arise from superstitious thinking, a belief in supernatural causes. The core of the most rational version of the fallacy goes to the issue whether the coin, die, or other randomizer is “fair”, and thereby mixes up probability and likelihood.
Causes of the Gambler's Fallacy
Misunderstanding of Independence: In many random processes, each event is independent of previous events. For example, each flip of a fair coin is independent. The probability of getting heads remains 50% regardless of the previous outcomes. The gambler's fallacy stems from the false belief that past outcomes influence future events in these independent processes.
Law of Large Numbers: People often misinterpret the law of large numbers, which states that as the number of trials increases, the sample mean will converge to the expected value. This law applies to long-term averages and does not imply short-term balancing.
Pattern Recognition: Humans are inclined to detect patterns, even in random data. This tendency can lead to the false belief that certain outcomes are due or that streaks will be broken.
Example Illustrating the Gambler's Fallacy
Consider a roulette wheel, which has 18 red slots, 18 black slots, and 2 green slots. Each spin is an independent event with the probability of landing on red ≈18/38.
Suppose a gambler observes that the wheel has landed on red five times in a row. The gambler might believe that black is "due" and therefore more likely on the next spin. This belief is incorrect because the wheel has no memory of past spins. The probability of landing on red remains ≈18/38, and the probability of landing on black remains ≈18/38 regardless of previous outcomes.
Practical Example
A common practical example is betting on coin flips. Suppose a fair coin has landed on heads five times in a row. A person succumbing to the gambler's fallacy might bet on tails, believing it is now more likely. However, the probability of tails remains 50% for each flip, irrespective of previous results.
Conclusion
Understanding the distinction between probability and likelihood is crucial for correctly interpreting statistical data and making predictions. The gambler's fallacy arises from a misunderstanding of these concepts, particularly the nature of independent events. Recognizing that each event in a random sequence is independent and that the probability of each event remains constant is key to avoiding this fallacy. In practice, whether dealing with coin flips, roulette spins, or other random processes, maintaining a clear grasp of these principles helps in making rational and informed decisions.
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