As I predicted, the destruction of Russian military power and diplomtic influence will result in China gaining greater power and influence in Central Asia.
Xi-snubs-putin-amid-summit-with-central-asia-power-play-2023-3
This will however later turn into greater rivalry between China in opposition to Turkey and then later Finland and even Estonia and thus with NATO. That has not happened yet, but will (circa 2-5 years).
U.S. Naval Institute: how-open-source-intelligence-changing-warfare
THE LAW OF WAR:
We fight wars with rules because one day the war will end and peace will return — and then what? We fight wars with rules to maintain order, discipline, efficiency and obedience in our own forces and to encourage the enemy to surrender. Laws of war exist for very practical purposes. Russia has systematically violated the laws of war and this dooms it to defeat. Chinese support for Russia will transform into global opposition to China.
Greg Stamps at Hoover Institution wrote a booklet he wishes to share. chinas-playbook-and-how-to-beat-it/
I read it, though, predictably it misapprehends the challenges as threats, failing to even identify the threats.
Read "Unrestricted Warfare". CIA translated it for reasons. Read up on Chinese doctrines of "political warfare" and “unity in conflict”. Also read up on grey-zone conflicts like "little green fishing boats" the Chinese coast guard, influence operations with hospital ships, notably Peace Ark (which btw we should encourage since we can't oppose) or the uses of organized crime and the United Front Works Department.
Those are all actual threats the Hoover booklet glosses over or just ignores.
USSR != PRC.
Most of the threats China poses are political, grey zone, not military.
Most of the challenges China poses are economic.
Regarding the political challenges most IF recognized can be met.
Economic challenges can and should be met economically, that’s just market competition.
Chinese workers are more disciplined less expensive, China trades sharply and China is basically a mercantilist state capitalist dictatorship. The liberals’ Liberalization goals failed to democratize China. However, they DID pacify China and built China’s economy. So we must contain China militarily while engaging China economically, usually bi-laterally. Multilateralism failed because China is a state capitalist mercantilist dictatorship. Other States will also wind up dealing with China on a bilateral economic basis rather than by relying on Washington's failed and frankly illusory multilateralist institutional approach, notably the WTO.
MANY videos this week, likely due to the XI-Putin summit. Spoiler: Putin got Fuck All! For now. Celebrate! For now.
Analysis: XI is making Putin his little bitch, and isn’t going to send guns or ammunition. Welcome to the neo-mongol empire, it’s a bit premature and extreme to predict that but it is not so outlandish (see also: 1498: A New World Order Dystopia.
Good Times Bad Times does their videos in all the main languages except Chinese and Arabic so by all means switch to the language you are learning or prefer. Vive la France!
China's Xi leaves Russia after giving Putin a major boost, but no public promise of weapons
Japan-kishida-visit-russia-ukraine
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-seals-deal-send-ukraine-1-million-ammo-rounds-shells-war/
There is more analysis after these video links.
Until actions prove otherwise we are best to presume other State actors in fact intend exactly what they say. This has been proven true even of people like Hitler or Stalin. State actors are compelled to honesty at least about their objectives, usually also about their means, both to form up domestic political support and to attain their goals with the co-operation or at least non-interference by others State Actors.
The Chinese Communist Party seeks to obtain legitimation and popular support to stay in power and thus also seeks to develop its own concepts and governance structures to justify its rulership.
Democratic legitimation may be ex-ante, before the fact, or ex-post, after the fact. Ex post legitimation is the more dangerous and difficult to obtain. This is when a government does something politically unpopular but expedient, economical, useful. Ending racial segregation in the USA was politically unpopular. However, it under-cut USSR opposition to the USA and also increased domestic productivity since non-white people are likelier to work hard and less likely to riot if they are not governed by racist oppression. When the government gets legitimation ex post right it looks wonderful. When it gets it wrong it looks terrible.
Democratic legitimation as relevant to the formation and then the implementation of political will, the writing of good laws, which attract compliance and and thus are effectively enforced (low transaction costs to increase production and strengthen defense). Democratic legitimation is less important in the formation of good laws, though is desirable. In contrast, democratic legitimation is vital to the enforcement of law, the implementation of policy.
These are some of the reasons democracy appears a universally desired political system. The desire of people to determine their own affairs, the desire not to be enslaved or even ordered about by others explain why democracy is preferred to dictatorship. Thus, the democrtization of China and the rule of law in China will remain important issues even in the view of the Chinese communist party.When the Chinese government foolishly states there is no separation of powers in China it fails to note the distinctions between legislation (which is ex ante) and adjudication (which is ex post). What is unquestionable and obvious today was once considered impossible. Politics is the art of the possible.
btw. welcome to soft-power.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/limits-of-a-no-limits-partnership-china-russia
Wrong: Russia and China can be split, but the price of doing so might be too much for some to bear.
Example: I could develop ideas and a plan of action to rid China of the Chinese Communist Party — likely at the cost of millions of lives (mostly Chinese) and billions or even trillions of dollars (not my money so I should care, because?). But I should do such a horrible terrible thing why? Not caring about money makes one able to do nasty OR nice things!
Possible political actions may have costs which are prohibitive in the minds of some political actors. I’m unwilling to kill of millions of Chinese just because I think CCP governance isn’t perfect or because China contends with other countries. Governance is never perfect. Countries always contend.
Though, you lost the easy cheap way to split Russia and China back when the USA decided to end its foolish experiment at turning a tribal patriarchal religious subsistence economy into …
Sweden.
Splitting China and Russia involves basically taking advantage of Russians, which they now clearly deserve thanks to their horrible corrupt incompetent kleptocratic so-called leaders. When China fucks Russia over and the USA does nothing to stop or even limit it: don’t be surprised. Be glad!
Here’s another example of the rehabilitation of Maoist thought in contemporary China
No individual, no country, is ever perfect. This is why we have democracy and diplomacy.
Counter-factual reasoning; extremist thinking.
What if the world is governed and led by power-mad individuals, those obsessed by greed and power, who are ready willing and able to lie, cheat, steal, and kill to get, keep, and exercise power? Megalomaniacs and sociopathic liars fixated on power and money? What then?
This possibility explains why I think the vast majority of people are likelier to wish to avoid and evade state power rather than to seize it. Leaders who suffer from those flaws are basically doomed, since their deceptions and obsessions eventually get exposed and then they lose first supporters then power.
I don’t think the world is governed by megalomaniacal sociopathic murderers. But what if I am wrong? We must always have plans which function even if our beliefs are somehow mistaken!
https://www.newsweek.com/explosion-moscow-kolomna-ukraine-drone-attacks-1785303
THE BLOOD PURGE IN RUSSIA CONTINUES
Girkin agrees with me: This ends with Putin dead or in the docket for war crimes.
Free eBook: Cheat Codes: How to Pass the Bar Exam https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D1TP7DM
Word of the day: Speechless sans voix sprachlos безмолвный 无语
Judgment:
革。巳日乃孚。元亨利贞。悔亡。
REVOLUTION. On the sixth day there is thus trust. The first: enjoy and benefit, purity. Regret is forgotten.
Commentary: When what is to be done is accomplished there will be stunned silence.