Israel-Iran Fight & Possible US-China Breakthrough
Contents:
Strategic Insights
China & Mid-East
US Strategy: De-escalate to Escalate
Learn Chinese
News Videos: Putin is Fucked!
Strategic Isnights
"War is a synonym for the path of the sly." Sun Tzu. This quote is often translated as "all war is based on deception". It's something like 战争也是道... it's open to more than one interpretation because 也 indicates "synonym" in the Shou Wen Jie Zi and also because 道 may mean a literal warpath or instead the broader idea of daoism, and possibly both. Yet, what is indisputable is
1. Deception and
2. Secrecy
Characterize war.
Thus, I tend NOT to talk about Israeli issues. Nothing wrong with saying nothing, doing nothing, just waiting while others fall into some trap you or someone else laid! War is also the way of the sly. “When your enemy is making a mistake, do nothing to interfere!" Napoleon Bonaparte.
Furthermore: All knowledge is only partial. “Know yourself, know your enemy, 100% of battles are victories.” Sun Tzu
So… take everything I say here in this post today skeptcally. Maybe it’s 100% true and correct as usual. Maybe I am mistaken. I am not lying. But I may know things I don’t ever write down. I enjoy fearsome silence.
CHINA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
China's stance on Israel's wars and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is closely tied to China's economic interests and the stability of the Chinese state. Although I am no social contract liberal, the myth of a "social contract" can be used as a rough simplistic shorthand to explain how a government claims legitimacy and obtains at least tacit acquiescence by the people and legitimacy ex-post if the governments policies are successful. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long been thought to have some kind of a "social contract" with the Chinese people, promising ever-improving prosperity in exchange for a monopoly on state power. This social contract is often referred to as the "China Dream," and it serves as the foundation of the CCP's legitimacy. However, Israel's wars and the instability in the Middle East pose a significant threat to this social contract and the "China Dream."
The "China Dream" is built on the idea of the prosperous and stable New China. The CCP's ability to deliver on this promise is closely tied to the stability of the global economy. The Middle East is a crucial region for China's economic interests, as it is home to some of the world's largest oil reserves and is a key transit point for China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Consequently, Israel's wars and the resulting instability in the region have significant economic implications for China.
One of the most direct economic implications of Israel's wars for China is the impact on the Belt and Road Initiative. The BRI is a massive infrastructure development project that aims to connect China with Europe, Asia, and Africa through a network of railways, highways, pipelines, and other infrastructure. The Middle East is a key transit point for the BRI, and the instability caused by wars in the Mid-East, such as the the recent Houthi stunts, disrupts the flow of goods and people along the BRI routes. This can have a significant impact on China's economic growth and attainment of the "China Dream." and the stability of the Chinese Communist Party. Instability in China in turn risks U.S. prosperity and global peace.
Another major economic concern for China is the impact of Israel's wars on China's energy security. The Middle East is home to some of the world's largest oil reserves, and China is heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil to fuel its economic growth. Israel's wars and the resulting instability in the region can disrupt the flow of oil and drive up prices, which can has a significant impact on China's economy.
In addition to the economic implications, Israel's wars also pose a threat to the stability of the Chinese state and the "China Dream." One potential spillover effect of Israel's wars is the potential for increased terrorism and extremism. This can have a direct impact on China, as China has a large Muslim population and has been battling its own Islamic fundamentalist extremist threat in the Xinjiang region.
China has also been actively involved in promoting peace in the Mid-East, as it sees stability in the Middle East as crucial to its own economic and security interests. China has been a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and has played a role in the Iran nuclear deal. China's stance on the Syrian conflict has also been closely watched, as China has been a vocal critic of foreign intervention in the country.
China's stance on Israel's wars and the Israeli conflicts is closely tied to China's economic interests and the stability of the Chinese state. The CCP's "social contract" with the Chinese people, the "China Dream," is built on the promise of ever-improving prosperity and stability. However, wars and instability in the Middle East pose a significant threat to this social contract and the "China Dream." The economic implications, the potential for spillover effects, and China's efforts to promote peace in the region all have a direct impact on the stability of the "China Dream." As such, China will continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East and play an active role in promoting peace and stability in the region.
US STRATEGY AND THE MIDDLE EAST: DE-ESCALATE WHEN POSSIBLE, ESCALATE WHEN NECESSARY
"Deescalate to escalate" US Strategy & the Iran-Israel Conflict
The US strategy of "deescalate to escalate" can best be understood as a tactical move which results from U.S. President Joe Biden's concerns about the next U.S. Presidential Campaign. This strategy is characterized by the US taking current steps to de-escalate tensions in a conflict, only to later escalate them for political advantage.
A. Explanation of the "deescalate to escalate" strategy
The "deescalate to escalate" strategy is a political tactic used by the US to manage conflicts in a way that benefits them domestically. This strategy involves taking steps to de-escalate tensions in a conflict, such as through diplomatic negotiations or the implementation of sanctions, only to later escalate them for political gain. This can be done through various means, such as increasing military presence in the region, providing military aid to one side of the conflict, or making public statements that inflame tensions.
B. Discussion of the USA's use of this strategy in Israel's wars
The US has a long history of using the "deescalate to escalate" strategy in Israel's wars. For example, during the 2014 Gaza War, the US initially called for a ceasefire and supported diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. However, as the conflict continued and the death toll mounted, the US began to escalate tensions by providing military aid to Israel and making public statements that were critical of Hamas. This strategy allowed the US to appear as if they were taking a neutral stance on the conflict, while also supporting their ally Israel. Currently however, the USA is taking steps to de-escalate the conflict, hoping, unrealistically, that the conflict will resolve itself. That is terribly unlikely, and so we can expect later and greater escalatory moves.
C. Analysis of the effectiveness of de/escalation strategy in achieving a lasting peace
The "deescalate to escalate" strategy has been criticized for its ineffectiveness in achieving a lasting peace. But to hyper-realists such as Putin and some of my ultra friends peace is merely the pause between wars, the chance to rest, refit, and rearm. What if they're right? So maybe I am the naive one, but I know we hope for the best and plan for the worst, that's how military strategy goes: foresee all outcomes, prepare to win at all costs, even in your worst case scenario, which must be your starting point. If a bad but certain victory is possible that is superior to an uncertain but greater victory: that's just applied minimax strategy. We win, or we win big, but we always win. People whom I regard as far more naive than criticize de/escalation strategy arguing that it perpetuates conflict. That's simply untrue from a theoretical perspective. In the right circumstances escalatory OR de-escalatory strategies and also combinations thereof may be appropriate. Yet, it is always correctto presume and plan for the worst, to be prepared to win your worst-cases scenario, and then also to plan for and hope to win better cases, including cases where the conflict is prevented or resolved long before anyone resorts to violence. This is preicsely how diplomacy and war-fighting relate. Kind, polite, well-spoken diplomats are a velvet glove. Thugs like me are an iron fist. They work better in tandem than apart, which is also true of carrots and sticks.
Escalatory strategies do however make it less credible for the USA to claim impartiality or neutrality. Fortunately,there are many other uninvolved states which can in fact play the role of "honest broker". China, for example, could play such a role, and thus the US and Chinese strategies could become complementary rather than conflicting. It is exactly these sort of win-win cooperations that Xi Jinping and I are both seeking. By showing you them up-front I am hoping to obtain better than the worst case scenario.
D. Implications for the next Presidential election Campaign
The "deescalate to escalate" strategy has significant implications for the next Presidential election Campaign. The use of this strategy can be seen as a political move, designed to appeal to certain voting blocs and to gain an advantage in the polls. However, this strategy can also be seen as a lack of commitment to finding a lasting peace and can be used against a candidate in the election.
In conclusion, the US strategy of "deescalate to escalate" in the Iran-Israel Conflict is a tactical move that results from U.S. President Joe Biden's concerns about the next U.S. Presidential Campaign. This strategy has been used in the past, but it has been criticized for its ineffectiveness in achieving a lasting peace and its potential consequences for the region and the world. It can however be properly applied both as an aspect of U.S. strategy (minimax) and as a stratagem for a China-US diplomatic breakthrough, to inaugurate what I advocate: a grand pacific peace, a century of pacific prosperity.
Iran's attack on Israel could be bad for Russia's war in Ukraine
Can China play a role in avoiding an all-out war in the Middle East?
LEARN CHINESE!
Foreign policy requires expertise in almost all social sciences. Languages, geography, economics, then history, also culture thus religions, for state power originally exercised itself as an extension of familial power and claimed authority thereby and justification by religion. All states appear to have started as extended families, clans, tribes, and then religious abstractions therefrom arose to justify state power. You must know your area languages.
是你 Shi Ni It’s YOU!
是你 are two of the most basic and frequent chinese characters and mean literally: IS and YOU respectively, making this a great song for CSL students. It is also a really beautiful love song. it sounds like “she knee” (pinyin shi ni) and your mnemonic is “She Is SHINY”.
是=日+正
正=一+止
止=丨+上
是=is
日+sun
正
正=upright
一+one
止
止=stopped
丨+vertical motion
上+higher
Is=A PERSON WALKING STOPPED STANDING UPRIGHT AT NOON.
你=亻+人+小
你=You
亻+Person (abbreviated form)
人+Person (unabbreviated form)
小 three grains of sand symbolizing the idea of small
Breaking down characters into their components greatly aids in remembering AND understanding Chinese characters.
There are in fact pronunciation clues however you are best to learn first what each of the character components means and then what the character means. It is MUCH easier to remember what characters look like and mean as compared to their pronunciation. If you wish to view the characters as like letters they are pronounced from left to right and from top to bottom. THere are however exceptions. There is sufficient pronunication drift in the various East Asian languages that you better get comfortable with the idea that characters are only approximations of their sounds. pinyin ZH CH SH drift into each other frequently so do N/NG of course and L/N/R, for another example. Save speaking and reading aloud for LAST because the pronunciation requires production of sounds that do not exist in any European language because we don't curl our tongues that way. Basically mouth positions for Chinese languages are fairly different from those of European languages.
Chinese is a tonal language with over 50,000 characters, but only around 3,000-4,000 are commonly used. We will focus on the most frequently used characters to help you build a strong foundation.
Let's begin with the following list of essential Chinese pictograms and their meanings:
1. 一 (yī) - one
2. 二 (èr) - two
3. 三 (sān) - three
4. 四 (sì) - four
5. 五 (wǔ) - five
6. 六 (liù) - six
7. 七 (qī) - seven
8. 八 (bā) - eight
9. 九 (jiǔ) - nine
10. 十 (shí) - ten
These are the numbers 1-10 in Chinese. Notice the similarities between the characters for 4, 7, and 10, which are derived from ancient counting rods.
Next, let's learn some common nouns and verbs:
1. 人 (rén) - person
2. 女 (nǚ) - woman, female
3. 男 (nán) - man, male
4. 说 (shuō) - to speak
5. 写 (xiě) - to write
6. 读 (dú) - to read
7. 看 (kàn) - to see, to watch
8. 是 (shì) - is, am, are
9. 不 (bù) - not
10. 有 (yǒu) - have, there is
Here are some sample sentences using these characters:
1. 我有一只猫。(Wǒ yǒu yī zhī māo.) - I have a cat.
2. 你是一个人吗?(Nǐ shì yī gè rén ma?) - Are you alone
1. 一 (yī) - one:
* 我有一只猫。(Wǒ yǒu yī zhī māo.) - I have one cat.
* 他有一本书。(Tā yǒu yī běn shū.) - He has one book.
2. 二 (èr) - two:
* 我有两只猫。(Wǒ yǒu liǎng zhī māo.) - I have two cats.
* 她有两个朋友。(Tā yǒu liǎng gè péngyǒu.) - She has two friends.
3. 三 (sān) - three:
* 我有三只猫。(Wǒ yǒu sān zhī māo.) - I have three cats.
* 他们有三个孩子。(Tāmen yǒu sān gè háizi.) - They have three children.
4. 四 (sì) - four:
* 我有四只猫。(Wǒ yǒu sì zhī māo.) - I have four cats.
* 我们有四个兄弟姐妹。(Wǒmen yǒu sì gè xiōngdì jiěmèi.) - We have four brothers and sisters.
5. 五 (wǔ) - five:
* 我有五只猫。(Wǒ yǒu wǔ zhī māo.) - I have five cats.
* 他有五个朋友。(Tā yǒu wǔ gè péngyǒu.) - He has five friends.
6. 六 (liù) - six:
* 我有六只猫。(Wǒ yǒu liù zhī māo.) - I have six cats.
* 她有六个弟弟姐姐。(Tā yǒu liù gè dìdì jiějiě.) - She has six younger brothers and older sisters.
7. 七 (qī) - seven:
* 我有七只猫。(Wǒ yǒu qī zhī māo.) - I have seven cats.
* 我们有七个同学。(Wǒmen yǒu qī gè tóngxué.) - We have seven classmates.
8. 八 (bā) - eight:
* 我有八只猫。(Wǒ yǒu bā zhī māo.) - I have eight cats.
* 他们有八个家人。(Tāmen yǒu bā gè jiārén.) - They have eight family members.
9. 九 (jiǔ) - nine:
* 我有九只猫。(Wǒ yǒu jiǔ zhī māo.) - I have nine cats.
* 她有九个姐姐妹妹。(Tā yǒu jiǔ gè jiějiě mèimei.) - She has nine older sisters and younger sisters.
10. 十 (shí) - ten:
* 我有十只猫。(Wǒ yǒu shí zhī māo.) - I have ten cats.
* 他们有十个朋友。(Tāmen yǒu shí gè péngyǒu.) - They have ten friends.
11. 人 (rén) - person:
* 这个人很高。(Zhège rén hěn gāo.) - This person is tall.
* 他们是好人。(Tāmen shì hǎo rén.) - They are good people.
12. 女 (nǚ) - woman, female:
* 这是一位女士。(Zhè shì yī wèi nǚshì.) - This is a woman.
普金是一个疯狂的杀手 (pujin shi yi ge feng kuang de shashou) - Putin is a crazy cold-blooded killer
FOMO? Learn Chinese!
When what is to be accomplished is achieved all will stare in wonder.
49䷰革
泽火革
兑上离下
革。巳日乃孚。元亨利贞。悔亡。
彖曰。革。水火相息。二女同居。其志不相得。曰革。巳日乃孚。革而信之。文明以说。大亨以正。革而当。其悔乃亡。 天地革而四时成。汤武革命。顺乎天而应乎人。革之时大矣哉
象曰。泽中有火。革。君子以治历明时。
Ru Ying Sui Xing Songtext
一只蝴蝶在飞 飞过你的身边
落在你美丽的指尖啦 咦 用你最深情的面容亲吻如清风般舞动的快乐
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseileidou
Moseisang moseisang mosemoseleidou
Moseisang moseisang moseleidouleidou
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang
一片花瓣飞 抚摸过你的脸
香留发间啦 咦 用你最深情的眼睛看看这世上动情的人儿啊在歌唱
穿过时间空间的快乐
献给所有的生命
欢乐女神
圣洁美丽
灿烂光芒照大地
我们心中充满热情
来到你的圣殿里
你的力量能使人们消除一切分歧
在你光辉照耀下面人们团结成兄弟
牵着我的手和我一起唱快乐 快乐
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseileidou
Moseisang moseisang mosemoseleidou
Moseisang moseisang moseleidouleidou
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseileidou
Moseisang moseisang mosemoseleidou
Moseisang moseisang moseleidouleidou
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang
Moseisang moseisang moseimoseimoseisang