🆓📖New Year's Presents!新年快乐! Happy Chinese New Years!
Your gifts are here!
This weeks Free eBooks! Happy Chinese New Years! I wish you all prosperity health and happiness! 新年快乐! 祝您们恭喜发财愉快! 蛇年好!
Model: Stable Diffusion. I also have a substack about AI
Equitable Remedies
Write to Win
Why Trump Won, Why Clinton Lost
Solomon’s Gate: Strategic Analysis of Current Mid East Conflicts
CHINESE VOCABULARY BUILDER CHENG YU PROVERBS SONGS AND POEMS
Brave New Orange
Tit-for-Tat: Reciprocity & Splitting Russia to Atoms.
The United States' next decade of global influence hinges on its ability to simultaneously tame the 'Dragon' through reciprocity and outmaneuver the 'Bear' through strategic prowess. As a defensive realist, I appreciate the merits of capitalist peace theory: The USA should adopt a bifurcated approach to dealing with Russia and China. Regarding China, this approach should be guided by the principle of reciprocity. Regarding Russia, it must be hard nosed strategic manipulation. For both, deep understanding of international relations is indispensable.
The USA should simply mirror Chinese actions, as it continues with the permanent destruction of the greatest threat to the USA and world peace, the so-called “Russian” Federation, a mafia state of war criminals, thieves, liars, and alcoholics. The proxy war rages on as oilfields, airfields, and factories in Russia are hammered hard by Ukraine. I have long pointed out Ukraine cannot and will not give up, has many allies, and is capable of fighting on alone, were that necessary. I have also pointed out: Trump will try to impose peace, and fail, because Putin has repeatedly proven untrustworthy, unreliable, and in recent years incompetent. So Putin will do as he always does: lie, and backstab. What happens after Putin stabs Trump in the back?
Regarding China, the USA should indeed adopt a policy of 100% reciprocity with China. This means that since China bans American companies such as Facebook and Google, the USA should respond in kind by banning Chinese companies such as Huawei and TikTok. This approach is not only fair but also necessary to protect American interests and prevent China from exploiting the US market and the open society. By doing so, the USA can create a level playing field and prevent China from gaining an unfair advantage and finally end China’s unfair trade practices and unilateralism.
Russia is sufficiently weakened now that even were China - with its inexperienced, badly led, and poorly trained military, using its demonstrably inferior Russian based military equipment to arm Russia that Russia would still lose in Ukraine. The USA is now in position to constrain China to fair policies such as renouncing cyberattacks, dumping, and theft while finishing the disaggregation of the “Russian” federation into its constituent republics, a process which could benefit China, notably in the Amur valley and Siberia, where China could well gain control or at least influence were it to align its policies more closely with the USA.
In any case, the USA will seek to drive a wedge between Russia and China, two nations that have been increasingly cooperating in recent years. This will be achieved by offering China incentives to distance itself from Russia, such as improved trade relations, investment opportunities, and diplomacy. China, as a pragmatic and calculating nation, is likely to be receptive to such overtures, especially if it believes that its interests are being served. By convincing China to stab Russia in the back, the USA will finally end Russia’s ongoing war crime in Ukraine to the benefit of the USA, China, and world trade generally.
Regardless of China, the immediate priority for the USA is to deal with the Russian threat. Putin's Russia is an aggressor. Putin seeks to undermine the existing international order and expand his influence through coercion and deception. The USA should expect Putin to engage in his usual tactics of lying, cheating, and manipulating others to achieve his goals. In the context of the Ukraine conflict, this means that Putin will likely fake a ceasefire, blame Ukraine for any violations, and then stab the USA in the back by continuing his aggressive actions. And then what? Though, the wiser policy would be to give Putin no chances and simply prosecute the proxy war to its obvious logical conclusion: the complete disaggregation of the “Russian” Federation into its constituent republics which, with independence, will never serve as Moscow’s cannon fodder again.
Meanwhile, the USA should be prepared for this eventuality and have a plan in place to respond to Putin’s backstabbing decisively. Severe economic sanctions on Russia, providing military aid to Ukraine, and rallying international support to isolate Russia diplomatically. By taking a tough stance against Russia, the USA can demonstrate its resolve and credibility, which will be essential in deterring future aggression.
Once Putin's Russia is dealt with, the USA can focus on keeping China at least neutral, if not friendly. This will require a combination of diplomatic engagement, economic incentives, and strategic reassurance. China, as a rising power, is likely to be cautious in its dealings with the USA, but it is also pragmatic and willing to cooperate if its interests are respected. By engaging China in a constructive dialogue and addressing its concerns, the USA can create a more stable and predictable relationship that benefits both nations.
It is worth noting that the USA has not had a coherent and effective foreign policy since 2001. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the failure to prevent the rise of ISIS, and the mishandling of the Ukraine crisis are all testaments to the lack of strategic vision and leadership in US foreign policy. However, this does not mean that the USA is doomed to repeat its mistakes. By learning from its past errors and adopting a more nuanced and realistic approach, the USA can regain its footing on the world stage and promote its interests more effectively.
In this context, the concept of capitalist peace theory is particularly relevant. Capitalist peace theory posits that international trade and investment tend to reduce the likelihood of conflict between nations by creating interdependence and raising the costs of war: people are less likely to wage war with those who are making them wealthy. By promoting free trade and investment, the USA can create a web of economic relationships that tie nations together and make war more difficult to contemplate. Peace-through-trade is not a panacea, deterrence and collective security are also necessary, but economic interdependence is a very useful tool in reducing tensions and promoting cooperation and a key contributor to the absence of world war since 1945.
The USA should also prioritize the promotion of human rights and democracy as a key component of its foreign policy. This is not only a moral imperative but also a strategic one. Nations that respect human rights and democratic principles are more likely to be stable, peaceful, and cooperative, whereas authoritarian regimes are often prone to aggression and instability. By promoting human rights and democracy, the USA can create a more just and peaceful world, which is essential for its own security and prosperity.
In conclusion, the USA faces significant challenges in its relations with China and Russia, but it also has opportunities to promote its interests and create a more stable and peaceful world. By adopting a policy of exact trade reciprocity with China, driving a wedge between Russia and China, and continuing the proxy war against Russia to its logical conclusion, while promoting human rights and democracy, the USA can regain its footing on the world stage and promote its interests more effectively. This will require a combination of strategic vision, diplomatic skill, and an expert understanding of the international relations. However, if the USA can rise to the challenge, it can create a brighter future for itself and for the world (references after the news blast).
China should support the destruction of the “Russian” Federation. Here’s why.
Shenyang Explosion
Shenyang, a city of 8 million (greater metropolitan area 23 million) has recently suffered an explosion with at least 3 killed and around 30 injured. As Xi Jinping gave his Spring Festival 春节 New Years speech there it is likelier to be a terrorist attack than a gas leak. Russia is likely to blame: Chinese media ordinarily suppresses such news in order to prevent copycats and chase down the perpetrators.
https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2025/01/26/v-kitae-vzryv-u-tc-desyatki-ranenyh
This will not end nicely for Russia.
https://evrimagaci.org/tpg/explosion-rocks-shopping-center-in-shenyang-china-162051
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/227474/Massive-explosion-rocks-Chinese-city-of-Shenyang
References
1. Brookings Institution. "The China-Russia relationship and threats to vital US interests." December 17, 2024. https://www.gmfus.org/event/china-russia-alignment-threat-europes-security
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Taiwan and the Limits of the Russia-China Friendship." September 3, 2024. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/cooperation-between-china-iran-north-korea-and-russia-current-and-potential-future-threats-to-america?lang=en
Council on Foreign Relations. "No Limits? The China-Russia Relationship and U.S. Foreign Policy." November 21, 2024. https://www.cfr.org/china-russia-relationship-report
MERICS. "China-Russia alignment: a threat to Europe's security." June 26, 2024. https://merics.org/en/report/china-russia-alignment-threat-europes-security
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW). "Three years of war in Ukraine: the Chinese-Russian alliance passes the test." January 20, 2025. https://www.osw.waw.pl/ukraine-russia-china-report
South China Morning Post. "China's Xi to visit Russia in 2025 amid 'double resistance' to West, envoy in Beijing says." December 27, 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3295651/xi-jinping-and-vladimir-putin-hold-virtual-talks-hours-after-trumps-return-white-house
War on the Rocks. "Denial Is the Worst Except for All the Others: Getting the U.S. Theory of Victory Right for a War with China." June 11, 2024. https://warontherocks.com/china-us-conflict-strategy
Council on Foreign Relations. "Where the China-Russia Partnership Is Headed in Seven Charts and Maps." December 12, 2024. https://www.cfr.org/china-russia-partnership-analysis
The Jakarta Post. "Xi Jinping, Iranian President Will Visit Russia in 2025." December 27, 2024. https://www.thejakartapost.com/world/2024/12/27/xi-jinping-iranian-president-will-visit-russia-in-2025.html
Model: Piclumen https://piclumen.com/app/image-generator/create 蛇年快乐! Piclumen is free, happy new year!
Word of the Day: YEAR. Sample sentence: Each year the Chinese frighten away the nian beast with firecrackers at New Years.
French: Année
Spanish: Año
German: Jahr
Estonian: Aasta
Ukrainian: Рік (Rik)
Russian: Год (God)
Chinese: 年 (Nián)
Sample sentence translations:
French: Chaque année, les Chinois font fuir la bête nian avec des pétards au Nouvel An.
Spanish: Cada año, los chinos ahuyentan a la bestia nian con petardos en Año Nuevo.
German: Jedes Jahr verscheuchen die Chinesen das nian-Ungeheuer mit Feuerwerkskörpern an Silvester.
Estonian: Iga aasta ajal peletavad hiinlased nian-koletise minema tulepommidega uusaasta puhul.
Ukrainian: Кожного року китайці лякають нянь-звіря петардами на Новий рік.
Russian: Каждый год китайцы прогоняют нянь- зверя петардами в Новый год.
Chinese: 每年，中国人都会用鞭炮来驱赶年兽在新年。
Note: The Chinese translation uses the traditional characters for "year" (年) and "New Year" (新年), but in mainland China, the simplified characters (年 and 新年) are more commonly used.