1. Wars are lost by whomever miscalculates most, by whomever makes the most mistakes.
2. Mistakes abound in war, war itself is a mistake, at least one party to the war over-estimated their position or underestimated the enemy, this is why there is war in the first place.
3. Just like the Polish farmers are miscalculating Just like Navalny miscalculated in going back to Russia, just like Putin miscalculated invading Ukraine so also are the people pushing Ukraine to "negotiate". Their perspective is partial, biased, or even dishonest. Kotkin is the most famous example of a good faith "negotiate" advocate.
The advocates of "negotiation" make at least one of the following errors, usually more than one.
1. they misapprehend the "Russian" Federation and attribute to it any or all of
a. Rational action (leader is clearly committed to course of conquest)
b. Coordinated action (followers don't always follow)
c. The means Russia will use in fighting its war (Oct. 7, Navalny, inter alia)
i. They forget, ignore, or lie about the fact "Russia" is a mafia state and will lie cheat steal and kill
ii. Thus, Russia is incapable of negotiation: cannot be trusted.
iii. They also ignore/lie about the fact Russia will use any truce, cease fire or peace treaty as a chance to rest, rearm, train, only to attack again at the earliest opportunity.
2. They misapprehend China. Usually they lack the language, and have no understanding of Chinese ideology. Kotkin is particularly guilty of this, basically imposing onto the Chinese Communist Party the methods and madness of the CPUSSR, ignoring the vast cultural differences and disputes that divide Russia from China. Thus they fail to notice
i. China is milking Russia hard for cheap oil and trading it for ... electric vehicles. Ultimate goal? Make Russia dependent on Chinese cars including Chinese electricity generated from wind and solar to undercut the oil price even further!
ii. China is not going to contribute to Russia's incompetent failed war.
iii. China can be convinced to intervene against "Russia"
iv. China wants to make Ukraine its breadbox. People in power literally remember famine era China. Jews have no monopoly on terms like "never again".
3. The people preaching for "negotiation" fail to correctly consider the depth of commitment of commonwealth countries notably Canada but also Australia, it's not just England it is not just Britain it is all the old dominions which oppose Putin and they are willing to let this war take decades just like it took to knock out the Kaiser, just like it took to kill Napoleon, just like it took to sink that fucking Spanish armada.
Greater Britain can and will "go it alone" it would not be the first time, Britain has a long history of successful long wars starting with ... The Hundred Years War.
4. The "negotiate" crew also ignores where Germany and France stand. Both just signed security agreements with Ukraine.
No. Ukraine is not going to negotiate. There is no one to negotiate with. There is nothing to negotiate about.
CHATGPT IS NO GOOD AT O'HENRY TWIST.
Huggingface: Putin is a Face Hugger
In this post I present two examples of using GPT as a writing assistant. First, one fictional, second is an essay.
Why it matters: disinformation, generating "legends" backstories, and countering disinformation scripts. Generating white noise for steganography and transposition ciphers.
Technical Synopsis: Writing fiction with GPT can be done, always requires editing. Large language model generative ai (gpt) writes passable fiction which can be edited into something interesting enough to bother reading.
I'm not into fictional writing, mostly because why write horror when you already lived (survived) it? So Don't expect lots of real-life horror stories from Ukraine for the above reason. One-eyed beautiful ballerina mom civcas might sound interesting until you understand: it's not fiction. If you want true-life horror stories you can find many of them in Ukraine.
PROMPTING POINTS:
Tightly written prompts are better than prompts which repeat a series of synonyms, surprisingly. I had thought a tightly written prompt which then is extended by including lists of syllables and then a colon delimited series of genre and style prompts might generate longer and/or more interesting fiction. It does not.
FWIW I rarely write short stories, prefer poems, and never write novels. My favorite form of writing is non-fiction essays and reports because I want my words to matter and be meaningful and enjoyable.
Still you might enjoy this as an example of AI assistive fiction. I edited it so it is readable. Obviously the central story was my own, I told the gpt to generate parts, and then edited it, sometimes heavily. Again, I am not into fiction so you probably are not my business competitor, so feel free to share the story or my pointers about fiction prompts.
FICTION
I. A QUESTION OF PERSPECTIVE
In the belly of a colossal cargo ship in space, hidden within the labyrinthine corridors, there a small child survived. Hungry, desperate, and alone, the child's stomach gnawed at her insides with a relentless ferocity. She was a stowaway, a tiny figure hidden in the vast space of the ship's cargo hold, far from the warmth of home.
The darkness enveloped the child like a suffocating cloak, and the cold seeped into their very bones. Each passing hour felt like an eternity, with only the echoing sounds of the ship's machinery for company.
Days turned into weeks, and the child's hunger grew more insatiable with each passing moment... her tiny frame trembled with weakness, and her thoughts blurred into a haze of desperation.
One fateful night, driven by an instinctual need to survive, the child sensed a small creature scurrying through the shadows. Her stomach screaming for sustenance, she pounced.
In the dim light, the child, trembling, managed to grasp and trap the creature, enclosing the warm soft fragile form of newfound prey. With a mixture of horror and resignation, she knew what she must do. She crushed it, gnawed, sank into it and sucked out the blood, lapping it up greedily her first meal in what must have been weeks.
She had no semblance of remorse. She devoured the animal ravenously, tearing into its flesh with a primal desperation.
The child's stomach, sated, the hollow ache replaced by a sense of warmth spreading throughout. But as the echoes of the meager feast faded away into the cold darkness, a new realization dawned upon her.
She was not alone.
There might be others!
II.CALLIOPE
In the cold, desolate depths of the Artemis Lunar Orbiting Station, where darkness reignes supreme and silence echoed endlessly through the corridors, a chilling sense of isolation enveloped the very essence of existence. Amidst this void of emptiness, alone, striding Calliope walks, a vision of beauty and grace, her lithe frame cutting through the shadows like a flicker of hope in an abyss of despair. She is alone, and somewhat sad, for she is so far from home and there is no one else on the orbital station yet.
Calliope's footfalls echoed softly against the metal flooring of the tunnel, her breath forming misty clouds in the frigid air as she navigates the labyrinthine passages of the space station. The dim glow of emergency lights cast eerie shadows that danced around her, lending an otherworldly aura to her surroundings.
Unbeknownst to her, lurking in the shadows above, a sinister presence lay in wait. A creature born of nightmares, a monstrous amalgamation of alien machine technology and predatory biological instinct, a biotech hungered for sustenance in the void of space. The xenomorph crustacean, a vile abomination with razor-sharp mandibles and a relentless thirst for blood, watched with predatory intent as Calliope ventured deeper into its domain.
With a sudden, guttural hiss, the creature descended from the ceiling, its elongated limbs reaching out with deadly precision. In an instant, it latched onto Calliope's delicate form, its jagged mandibles sinking deep into her flesh with a sickening crunch.
Calliope's eyes widened in horror as the creature's vice-like grip constricted around her throat, cutting off her screams before they could escape her lips. She gasped for air, her lungs burning with the desperate need for oxygen, but the creature's relentless assault left her helpless and gasping for breath.
As the creature's talons dug deeper into her flesh, Calliope's world spiraled into a nightmarish abyss of pain and terror. With each agonizing moment, she felt her very essence being drained away, her life force siphoned off by the insatiable hunger of the alien monstrosity.
With a final, agonized gasp, Calliope's struggles ceased, her once vibrant spirit snuffed out by the relentless onslaught of the xenomorph crustacean. And as her lifeless form slumped to the cold, unforgiving floor of the tunnel, a sense of utter despair descended upon the Artemis Lunar Orbiting Station, shrouding it in a veil of darkness from which there could be no escape.
She wasn't alone anymore.
She wasn't anything anymore.
In the cold dark depths of space terror reigns and nightmares live. Calliope's fate served as a chilling reminder of the horrors that lurk in the shadows, waiting to claim their next victim in the endless expanse of the cosmos.
I. PROMPT: Write a short story about a starving child who is so hungry terribly hungry can't even think its so hungry and cold alone it is a stowaway hiding in the dark corridor of a giant cargo ship far from home. Build sympathy and empathy even pity for the poor hungry lonely cold child. The child traps and kills an animal and then eats it ravenously, a happy ending.[EDITED RESPONSE] PROMPT Write a
lengthy extensive descriptive detailed discussion disquisitive
terrifying horrifying disgusting vile evil heartless destructive cynical bleak
horror story
about
a beautiful young thin attractive athletic sexy perfect 25 year old woman named Calliope
walking down a cold dark lonely tunnel
on a space station named Artemis Lunar Orbiting Station orbiting the moon
when a starving famished hungry predatory parasitical alien xenomorph crustacean sentient lobster facehugger
crustacean drops from the ceiling
latches onto her mouth with its sharp honed incisve mandibles
she tries to let out a blood curdling terrifying piercing penetrating scream
but she cannot even breathe
even if she could scream
there is no one to hear her she is alone
its claws dig deeply into her flesh skin penetrating her ears puncture piercing penetrating crunching cracking snapping pulsepoint
its pointed tail strikes her skull swiftly breaking the braincase and driving deep into her cerebellum
it claws at her face
sucking sucking licking raspy her brains and blood brains blood hema fluid liquid out through her nose and eyes.
puncture piercing penetrating crunching cracking snapping pulsepoint
parasite feeding.
She isn't al
one anymore.
She isn't anything anymore.
Genre Prompts: Body horror, terrorism, nightmare fuel, geiger, escher, terror, fear, anxiety, disgusting, sickening, nauseating.
COMMENT: Surprisingly, this prompt did not do nearly so well as I had hoped.
NON-FICTION
DEMOCRATIZATION: A CAUTIONARY TALE
DEMOCRATIZATION: A CAUTIONARY TALE (And example of automated/assisted text generation with chatgpt)
This essay is ok just skim it lightly because it's mostly unedited GPT. I regard GPT as good for generating pablum, but that pablum can be edited by a human into something actually interesting. Basically large language models should be seen as assitive technology.
I.
The Mexican Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held power for much of the 20th century, effectively establishing a single-party state. While this dominance raised concerns about authoritarianism and political corruption, it also had significant implications for issues such as drug trafficking. Surprisingly, the PRI's centralized control played a role in preventing the rampant drug trade that emerged later during Mexico's transition to a multiparty democracy.
During the PRI's rule, the party maintained tight control over government institutions, law enforcement agencies, and political power structures. This centralized authority allowed the PRI to exert significant influence over various aspects of Mexican society, including law enforcement and security forces. As a result, the PRI was able to implement strict measures to combat drug trafficking and organized crime effectively.
Under the PRI's single-party rule, drug trafficking organizations faced significant obstacles in expanding their operations. The party's control over law enforcement and judicial institutions meant that authorities could swiftly crack down on drug-related activities, apprehend traffickers, and dismantle criminal networks. Additionally, the PRI's authoritarian regime enabled the party to enforce harsh penalties for drug offenses, serving as a deterrent to potential traffickers.
Furthermore, the PRI's centralized governance structure facilitated coordination and cooperation among different government agencies in combating drug trafficking. Law enforcement agencies, intelligence services, and military forces could work together seamlessly under the direction of the PRI-led government to address the threat posed by drug cartels.
However, the dynamics shifted with the transition to multiparty democracy in Mexico. As the PRI's grip on power loosened, the political landscape became more fragmented, with multiple parties vying for influence and control. This decentralization of power created opportunities for corruption, inefficiency, and collusion between politicians and criminal elements.
The emergence of a multiparty democracy weakened the government's ability to combat drug trafficking effectively. Political infighting, corruption scandals, and bureaucratic inefficiencies undermined law enforcement efforts, allowing drug cartels to exploit the power vacuum and expand their operations with relative impunity. Moreover, the rise of competing political factions often led to conflicting priorities and strategies in addressing the drug trade, further complicating the government's response.
Although the PRI's single-party rule may have been criticized for its authoritarian tendencies, it also played a crucial role in preventing widespread drug trafficking in Mexico. The party's centralized control over government institutions, law enforcement agencies, and political power structures enabled it to implement robust measures to combat organized crime effectively. However, the transition to multiparty democracy weakened the government's ability to confront the drug trade, leading to its proliferation and exacerbating the challenges faced by Mexican authorities in addressing this pressing issue.
II.
PROMPT: Now write an essay comparing the Mexican PRI during Mexico's one party state era and the Chinese Communist Party today
COMMENT: Oh ChatGPT your fucking liberal bullshit is so sickening i expect another decade of successful information warfare to the detriment of the American Republic.
Comparing the Mexican PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) during Mexico's one-party state era and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) today offers a fascinating insight into the dynamics of authoritarian rule, political longevity, and governance strategies. While both parties have dominated their respective countries for decades, they have operated in distinct historical, cultural, and geopolitical contexts, leading to divergent approaches to power consolidation, economic management, and social control.
Firstly, the historical backgrounds of the PRI and the CCP shaped their trajectories in significant ways. The PRI emerged in the aftermath of the Mexican Revolution (1910-1920), positioning itself as a nationalist and revolutionary force that aimed to modernize Mexico through state-led development and social reform. In contrast, the CCP traces its origins to the early 20th century, with its founding in 1921 amidst the turmoil of warlordism, imperialism, and civil conflict in China. While both parties emerged from revolutionary struggles, the PRI's consolidation of power occurred within a relatively stable post-revolutionary framework, whereas the CCP faced continuous challenges to its authority, including the Japanese invasion, civil war, and the eventual establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949.
Secondly, the ideological underpinnings of the PRI and the CCP differ significantly. The PRI initially espoused a blend of nationalist, socialist, and populist rhetoric, emphasizing the need for state intervention in the economy to promote industrialization and social welfare programs to alleviate poverty and inequality. However, over time, the PRI shifted towards a more pragmatic and centrist approach, embracing neoliberal economic policies in the 1980s and 1990s under pressure from global markets and international financial institutions. In contrast, the CCP remains committed to Marxism-Leninism and Mao Zedong Thought as its guiding ideologies, albeit with significant adaptations to accommodate market reforms and capitalist development since the late 1970s. While both parties have undergone ideological transformations, the PRI's shift towards neoliberalism represents a departure from its original revolutionary ethos, whereas the CCP has managed to maintain ideological continuity while embracing market-oriented reforms.
Thirdly, the mechanisms of political control and governance employed by the PRI and the CCP exhibit both similarities and differences. During Mexico's one-party state era, the PRI utilized a combination of co-optation, clientelism, and repression to maintain its monopoly on power, often co-opting labor unions, peasant organizations, and other social groups into its corporatist structure. Similarly, the CCP relies on a vast network of party cells, mass organizations, and surveillance apparatuses to monitor and control society, employing tactics such as censorship, propaganda, and the suppression of dissent to preserve its rule. However, while the PRI's control was more decentralized and relied heavily on patron-client relationships at the local level, the CCP maintains a highly centralized and hierarchical system of governance, with ultimate authority vested in the Party's top leadership and its General Secretary.
Lastly, the trajectories of political liberalization and democratization in Mexico and China diverge significantly. Following decades of one-party rule, Mexico underwent a gradual process of democratization starting in the late 20th century, culminating in the electoral defeat of the PRI in 2000 and the subsequent alternation of power between rival parties. In contrast, China has remained under CCP rule with no meaningful prospects for political liberalization, despite limited experiments with intra-party democracy and grassroots participation. The CCP's resilience can be attributed to its adaptability, economic performance, and effective control over information and dissent, which have helped to legitimize its rule and maintain social stability amidst rapid socioeconomic change.
In conclusion, while the Mexican PRI during Mexico's one-party state era and the Chinese Communist Party today share certain characteristics as long-standing authoritarian regimes, they operate within distinct historical, ideological, and institutional contexts. The PRI's evolution from a revolutionary party to a centrist political force and Mexico's subsequent transition to democracy highlight the possibilities for political change and pluralism even in entrenched authoritarian systems. In contrast, the CCP's ability to adapt to economic reforms while maintaining ideological control underscores the challenges of political reform in a context of rapid economic growth and social transformation. Ultimately, the comparative study of these two authoritarian parties provides valuable insights into the complexities of power, ideology, and governance in diverse political contexts.
III.
PROMPT: Write a conclusion admonishing the reader to be careful when wishing for multi-party democracy in China due to their lack of expertise and the possibility of unintended consequences like we saw in the case of Mexican democratization
GPT:
In contemplating the transition towards multi-party democracy in China, it is crucial to approach the matter with a nuanced understanding of historical precedents and the complexities inherent in political change. The case of Mexican democratization following the demise of the one-party state offers valuable lessons, reminding us of the potential pitfalls and unintended consequences that may accompany such transitions.
While the prospect of multi-party democracy in China may appear appealing to those advocating for political reform and greater freedoms, it is essential to recognize the challenges and risks involved. The Mexican experience serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting how the transition to multi-party democracy can lead to political instability, polarization, and governance challenges, particularly in contexts where institutions are weak and civil society is underdeveloped.
Moreover, the lack of expertise and institutional capacity within China's political opposition raises concerns about their readiness to govern effectively in a multi-party system. Without robust political parties, independent judiciary, and a vibrant civil society, the transition to democracy could exacerbate rather than alleviate governance problems, potentially undermining stability and economic development.
Therefore, while the aspiration for democratic reform in China is commendable, it is imperative to proceed with caution and pragmatism, taking into account the unique historical, cultural, and institutional factors at play. Rather than advocating for rapid and wholesale political change, efforts should focus on gradual and incremental reforms aimed at strengthening accountability, transparency, and rule of law within the existing political framework.
In conclusion, the case of Mexican democratization serves as a sobering reminder of the complexities and challenges inherent in transitions towards multi-party democracy. As we contemplate the future of governance in China, let us approach the issue with humility, awareness of historical precedents, and a commitment to fostering gradual and sustainable reform that respec
ts the country's unique circumstances and aspirations.
So, yeah, I made a post about a facehugger. Oh Huggingface, I can't wait to break you even harder!
bonus content: I took the outline i wrote at the start of this post and asked a GPT to write an essay based on my outline. This is what GPT said. It is NOT edited it is entirely machine generated.
Title: The Illusion of Negotiation in the Midst of Conflict
Wars are often determined by the extent of miscalculations and mistakes made by the involved parties. The abundance of mistakes in war, stemming from overestimating one's position or underestimating the enemy, is a testament to the fallibility of human judgment. This inherent fallibility is a driving force behind the occurrence of wars.
In the current context, the push for Ukraine to engage in "negotiation" is fraught with miscalculations and biased perspectives. Advocates of negotiation often misapprehend the nature of the "Russian" Federation, attributing rational and coordinated action to a state that operates as a mafia entity. This misinterpretation leads to a misplaced trust in Russia's ability to negotiate, disregarding its history of using truces and peace treaties as opportunities to regroup and launch further attacks.
Furthermore, the misunderstanding of China's motives and actions in the conflict is evident. The advocates of negotiation fail to grasp China's exploitation of Russia for cheap oil and its strategic goal of making Russia dependent on Chinese vehicles and electricity. Additionally, they overlook China's reluctance to support Russia's war efforts and its potential willingness to intervene against Russia. The historical memory of famine-era China further complicates China's intentions in the region.
The proponents of negotiation also disregard the unwavering commitment of Commonwealth countries, including Canada and Australia, to oppose Putin's aggression. Their historical resolve in enduring prolonged conflicts, such as the Hundred Years War, exemplifies their readiness to support Ukraine in protracted resistance against Russian incursion.
Moreover, the oversight of Germany and France's recent security agreements with Ukraine further undermines the feasibility of negotiation. These agreements signify a strong alliance with Ukraine, making it clear that there is no room for negotiation from Ukraine's perspective.
In light of these considerations, it becomes evident that Ukraine is not in a position to negotiate. The fundamental misunderstandings of the nature and intentions of key players, coupled with the unwavering support of various nations, leave no room for genuine negotiation.
In conclusion, the call for negotiation in the midst of conflict is based on flawed assessments and biased perspectives. It fails to acknowledge the true nature of the involved parties and their commitments, rendering it an illusory prospect in the current geopolitical landscape.