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China - U.S. Relations: The Power of Pragmatism
The recent statement by Anthony Blinken, "We are not decoupling," has sparked intense discussions about US-China relations. This pragmatic approach acknowledges the importance of maintaining economic ties while addressing security concerns. However, some opinions, such as those expressed in Foreign Affairs, advocate for a destabilization and ousting of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). These proposals are not only unrealistic but also potentially detrimental to both nations, even dangerous.
A recent article in Foreign Affairs suggests that the USA should aim to destabilize and seek the ouster of the CCP. That perspective is deeply flawed for two primary reasons. Firstly, it is simply not possible. The CCP's grip on power in China is robust, and any attempt to unseat them would face insurmountable obstacles. Secondly, even if such an endeavor were feasible, it would undoubtedly backfire. The consequences of attempting to destabilize China could lead to severe geopolitical and economic repercussions, harming both countries and potentially destabilizing the global economy.
The argument from Foreign Affairs reflects an outdated mindset reminiscent of the 1990s, when the USA held all the cards on the global stage: Russia was broken, China still impoverished and the USA was free to try to build a global liberal order based on free trade and investment alongside human rights protections and the rule of law. However, the USA no longer holds all the cards. Resurgent Russia is breaking, true, but China is far wealthier and also far less belligerent than Russia or even the China of the 1970s. The viewpoint expressed in Foreign Affairs fails to account for the substantial changes in global dynamics over the past few decades. The USA's prolonged and ultimately futile wars in the Middle East, aimed at transforming the region from deeply religious patriarchal tribal subsistence economies into a Western style social democracies with feminism, gay rights, and why not abortion and social welfare too was doomed from the start. These repeated foreign policy debacles have significantly diminished U.S. influence and resources. The belief that the USA can unilaterally dictate the course of global politics is a dangerous misconception. One must choose one's battles wisely again.
A more realistic approach to China involves military containment while continuing normal trade and investment relations. This strategy acknowledges the necessity of addressing security concerns without severing economic ties that are crucial for both nations. Although the CCP may publicly express deep dissatisfaction with this approach, privately, they may well be relieved. For such a strategy indicates that the pragmatic faction within the USA, which understands the importance of maintaining a stable global order, has prevailed over the unrealistic radicals who held sway for at least the first decade of this century.
The failures of past US strategies, particularly those led by neoconservatives, have severely discredited publications like Foreign Affairs in the eyes of most analysts and the recent article (why bother to name the author) confirms that view. The repeated failures of the USA in wars initiated under the guise of spreading democracy and protecting human rights have demonstrated the futility of such interventions. Trump's unsuccessful attempt to unseat the CCP in Hong Kong is a recent example of the ineffectiveness of regime change strategy, at least in China. This failure underscores the need for a more measured and realistic approach to foreig relations with China.
The regime in Beijing is secure thanks to the greatly increased wealth of China and its ability to prevent another Chinese civil war and to have avoided war since 1979. Consequently, the primary concern for the CCP is not regime change but decoupling. The CCP is well aware that the USA cannot unseat them. Trump's attempt in Hong Kong, which ended in failure, exemplifies this reality. That purportedly sophisticated analysts with their polished rhetoric and social connections can successfully still advocate for such strategies despite their obvious repeated failure is not only misguided but potentially dangerous. It raises questions about whether these analysts are driven by genuine concern for the republic or by personal profit motives in the stock market.
The proposal to destabilize and oust the CCP is not only unrealistic but also counterproductive. The focus should instead be on a pragmatic approach that links military containment with continued economic engagement. Recognizing the limitations of past strategies and the current geopolitical realities is essential for developing a coherent and effective foreign policy. The primary concern should be avoiding decoupling, which is a more immediate threat to the stability of US-China relations, rather than seeking the improbable yet destructive goal of regime change.
We must acknowledge the complexities of the modern era, where global dynamics have shifted significantly. The rise of emerging economies, the increasing importance of regional organizations, and the growing influence of non-state actors have all contributed to a more multipolar world. In this context, a pragmatic approach to US-China relations is crucial, one that takes into account the limitations of American power and the need for cooperation and diplomacy.
A focus on regime change and destabilization distracts from the more pressing issues that need to be addressed in US-China relations. Trade relations, the competition for technological supremacy, and the need for cooperation on global issues such as environmental pollution and terrorism all require a more nuanced and realistic approach. By acknowledging the complexities of the modern era and the limits of American power, the USA can develop a more effective and coherent foreign policy that benefits both nations and the global community, preserving U.S. global leadership thereby.
We must also recognize the importance of diplomacy and dialogue in US-China relations. A more sustained and meaningful dialogue is necessary to build trust and understanding, and to find common ground on issues such as security, trade, and human rights.
Ultimately, the key to a successful US-China relationship lies in military containment of China's unrealistic ambitions to avoid "another Ukraine" while deepening economic engagement through trade and investment for the very same reason. By acknowledging the complexities of the modern era, recognizing the constraints of American power, and focusing on a pragmatic approach that combines military containment (sticks) with continued economic engagement (carrots), the USA will develop and implement a more effective and coherent foreign policy that benefits both the USA and China and the global community. Why would Chinese kill each other when instead we could all do business profitably?
No one can stop an idea whose time has come. Victor Hugo (Attributed)
CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY AND GERMANY: A MODEL FOR COOPERATION
The tendency to lump China and Russia together in geopolitical discussions oversimplifies the profound differences between the “Russian” Federation, a criminal conqueror and China, a peaceful productive victim of Russians’ rapacious criminality. While Russia and China share some similarities such as authoritarian governance there strategic alignment is limited to opposing the USA, which is proving to be a foolish choice. The fact is China and Russia are entirely different from each other, which justifies a balanced approach with continued trade and investment with China. Russia and China have divergent historical trajectories, entirely different cultural foundations, and even their political structures diverge significantly. To truly understand China's place in the world, it is essential to go into China’s unique characteristics and the intellectual traditions that shape its policies.
China's governance structure has more differences with Russia than similarities and their cultures are entirely divergent. While Chinese and U.S. culture share some similarities they also have divergent political structures. China does however shares cultural and governance similarities with Germany, particularly in its economic strategies and political structures. Both China and Germany are party-political states that have pursued export substitution industrialization with fervor. This economic model, which focuses on developing domestic industries to attain global market penetration, has been a cornerstone of China's rise as an economic powerhouse, with Germany serving as a model for China. Culturally, both China and Germany are formal cultures with respect for hierarchy and authority as central values.
However, modern China is at a different stage of development compared to contemporary Germany. China's economy, while immense and growing, remains less developed than Germany’s in many respects. The disparities in wealth, the urban-rural divide, and the challenges of transitioning from a manufacturing-based economy to one driven by services and innovation are more pronounced in China. Furthermore, China's political system exhibits more authoritarian tendencies than modern Germany, although it is less repressive than historical Prussia.
Chinese foreign policy, shaped by its status as a mercantilist state capitalist authoritarian regime, emphasizes accumulating wealth through trade surplus and government intervention. The Chinese state plays a pivotal economic role in directing economic activity, often through state-owned enterprises and significant regulatory oversight of ostensibly private enterprise. This model has driven China's remarkable economic growth, but it also poses challenges as China seeks to reform and sustain its development.
In this context, emulating contemporary German foreign policy would be a wise course of action for China. Germany's approach to international relations, marked by diplomatic engagement and multilateralism, offers valuable lessons. By fostering strong economic ties, promoting regional stability, and engaging in multilateral institutions, post-war Germany has enhanced its influence and security without resorting to aggressive expansionism.
For China, adopting a similar strategy could yield significant benefits. By emphasizing further peaceful economic development and regional cooperation, China could allay fears and build trust among its neighbors and global powers. This approach would also enable China to secure the stable international environment necessary for its continued economic growth and development.
Moreover, emulating German foreign policy could help China better manage its conflicted relationship with the United States. By adopting a more cooperative and multilateral approach, China could reduce tensions and foster a more stable and predictable relationship with the United States. This would not only benefit China but also contribute to global stability.
Lastly, a shift towards a more German-like foreign policy would support China's internal reforms. As China seeks to transition to a more innovation-driven economy, fostering an open and cooperative international environment will be crucial. This would facilitate access to technology, markets, and investment, all of which are essential for China's long-term development.
In conclusion, a deeper understanding of China's unique trajectory and potential alignment with Germany's historical and contemporary strategies reveals a model for cooperation and development. By pursuing a foreign policy that emphasizes economic cooperation, regional stability, and multilateral engagement, China can enhance its global standing and support its ongoing development. This nuanced approach, rooted in a thorough understanding of history, culture, and economic strategy, will be essential for negotiating the complex geopolitical landscape of the 21st century.
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Videos
Ukraine will win. To the extent China cooperates with USA on Ukraine the USA will cooperate with China economically. I’m a carrots and sticks kinda thug.
解放西伯利亚!
起来!
Argentina to transfer old jets to Ukraine. Before you whine about old jets let me just Drone On about just what we're gonna do with them.
Gracias!
反对大俄罗斯帝国主义!