Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State of the United States of America, will visit Beijing sometime “in the coming weeks”. This issue provides some background information. The next issue will provide my views about what the USA and China can reasonably expect or even demand, what is acceptable to each, or at least tolerable, and what is unacceptable, and what logical consequences follow from ignoring the obvious.
I do regard the recent meeting of various espionage services (including China and the USA) at Singapore to have been successful at delimiting issues. I do not intend to publicly go into the details. Suffice it to say, getting potentially conflicting countries to agree, e.g., that overseas prostitutes ought not be murdered, and their murderers must be captured and punished is not a big ask. Basic human values are not difficult to obtain cooperation on, and can be the basis for further confidence among the more political wings. By focusing on cooperation on obvious common points — no one likes literal pedophiles for another example — competing security services can enable cooperation on suppression of the worst forms of criminality despite their differences on other issues. This cooperation can help contribute to confidence for further political works.
I do not mention any specific European countries, including the European “elephants” because “when elephants clash, mice may be crushed”. It’s not for fear of bing crushed: after all, there is also the folk wisdom that elephants fear mice, perhaps because mice though small may bear diseases which could fell even an elephant. But by nature, elephants are intelligent, tending to be friendly toward people:
"The good life is one inspired by love and guided by knowledge." -Aristotle “Communism is not poverty” -Deng Xiaoping. It’s about finding common ground, common goals, and working to reduce conflicts, not stoke them.
SO, I anticipate progress in Sino-American relations on the basis of at least some common understandings of the most basic precepts of human life: how to live (survival), and even live well (prosperity).
Russia
France, since 1815, is Russia’s historic ally so it can better oppose Germany. This logic was broken by NATO and the EU. France no longer needs Russia to defend itself against Germany. So, although Frenchy is too polite and diplomatic to actually say it, I’m not. Putin’s a dead man walking. Russia might negotiate peace once Putin’s gone. Until then: Planners must anticipate the death of Putin — and what then? Me and mine, the nasty ones, we have our answer. But you finer folk need yours so we can better follow along and make sure we’re on the same page, or at least deconflicted. I intend to help France, and France will enjoy good cooperation with the USA and Germany and even with whatever is left of Russia after Ukraine is finished chewing it up. It is the victim who ought determine the criminal’s punishment. I simply remind you: France was the first ally of the United States. Secretary Blinken speaks French fluently.
Vive la France!
What happens if Russia fights on and on to the bitter end? In that case (let’s call me and mine in team Nasty).
The Russian federation will be splintered into its constituent republics. Nenets, Komi, Mari e.g. will be independent countries, they will wind up influenced by their linguistic compatriots in Finland and Estonia. Meanwhile the Turkic republics like Yaktuia will also wind up independent. They, and the newly independent Islamic republics like Ingushtan, Chechnya, Dagestan will be influenced by Turkiye for linguistic and relgious/cultural reasons. China and Turkiye will wind up rivaling each other in Central Asia. Most interesting is whether, how, and how much of the Amur valley will revert to Chinese control or sovereignty. Russia is doomed and will be reduced to Muscovy. This is what happens to criminal regimes.
I anticipate team nasty to prevail in all cases. But we would prefer the least bloodless outcome, even for those horrible orks. We will bring the pain because we want the Russians, orks, to go home and surrender, now, or else. But if you kinder, wealthier, finer folk can cobble together something better than the obvious “of course neither side will negotiate or surrender, it’s a war to the death” me and mine will at least listen. Why laugh out a chance to avoid yet another basement interview…
Criminal Law
I teach criminal law. Thus, I teach potential prosecutors how to detect and prosecute crime. This entails also teaching by implication how to not be caught as a criminal. Indeed, some espionage operations are criminal acts under foreign law. Thus, when I teach courses on criminal law attendance is always optional. In this way the lazy less motivated students, who are in my opinion less likely to prosecute crime and likelier to counsel criminals remain uninformed. Open attendance also gives the rare student implicated in criminality because of their relatives and/or governmental ties the opportunity not to be publicly embarrassed or exposed.
Rumors swirl about Trump indictment
Trump informed he is target of special counsel criminal probe
Prosecutors ready to ask for Trump indictment on obstruction and Espionage Act charges
Donald Trump indicted for 2nd time, in classified documents investigation: Sources
If you participated in my corporate criminal law course: welcome to my vindication.
Reviewing and Rethinking U.S.-China Policy
As predicted… US-China-policy: Democracy, CCP, Strategy
It’s rather obvious with hindsight the USA should never have normalized relations with China after the Tiananmen massacre. However, the USA was too pre-occupied with the collapse of the then greater threat, the USSR and too greedy. Meanwhile, China’s domestic economy has grown amazingly, an economic miracle albeit founded in part on intellectual property theft and other unfair trading practices, but mostly built by the Chinese people’s hard work and clever trading. The constant cave-ins of mining sights and shameful and shockingly absent safety standards of the 1990s are most all in the past now. Regarding foreign policy China has only done “grey zone” operations. “Little green boats”, salvaging war graves, and at worst build a virus they were too incompetent to keep properly contained and sell lots of drug precursors for fentanyl to drug dealers, mostly in Mexico, while stealing as many inventions as possible. Then again, China is also that country genuinely seeking to end global poverty and improve environmental protection while fostering a global culture of inclusion and tolerance. China could easily rectify its foreign policy excesses if it wishes to and so progress can be made to improve Chinese foreign relations replacing foolish conflicts with greater wealth for all.
China is a mercantilist state-capitalist totalitarian dictatorship. Xi’s faction, which has frozen every other faction within the CCP out of power, leads a propaganda campaign which is very hostile to the USA, and thus contrary to China’s own best interests. Yet, Xi didn’t take the bait in Hong Kong and didn’t Tiananmen 2.0, the machine gun kelly edition. So it could be worse.
I am sure liberal capitalists dislike Xi and his faction. So? They would never be happy no matter what. I figure at some point the Xi faction will finally be over-whelmed by lack of popular support and all the alienated factions resulting in catastrophically flawed intelligence (see also: Putin 2021…). Then, rather than the collapse of the CCP, we might see the collapse of the Xi faction.
Most of U.S. China policy since 1990 was greedy, stupid, and naive. However, the rare people like me who tell you directly: China is literally a dictatorship, it says so right on Art. 1, PRC Const., don’t exactly get rewarded for telling the obvious truth. What did you expect?
Worse, I know dismantling dictatorships, say in Yugoslavia or Iraq, can unleash even more problems. So the USA will contain China militarily, and may well try to economically contain China. The USA might even manage to talk its closest partners in cold shouldering Beijing economically. But if the US or Western leaders generally think they will get rid of the CCP, well, I doubt it. And, I think they should really be careful what they wish for.
https://www.economist.com/china/2023/06/08/the-end-of-western-naivety-about-china
Democracy In China
Although the USA and the West can foster democracy in China,
you might not want to if:
your goal is to oust the CCP or
your goal is to hobble the Chinese economy or
you think a democratic China would be even more nationalist
Even if you truly want to export democratic ideals and structures you can only encourage democracy, not force it. Democracy at gunpoint is an oxymoron. You can’t be surprised when some country with a totally different language and culture actually implements democracy which expresses those values in other words one which is different or even very different from your own system of democracy.
There are lots of obstacles to greater Chinese democracy.
The USA and the West should foster democracy in China. Just don’t be surprised if they don’t or if they wind up unhappy with the results. These are the same class of people who wanted a peaceful prosperous wealthy China. And yet, once they actually got that they were not happy with getting what they wanted, because their goals were unrealistic and their real goal was to profit off of China selling “a billion cokes a day”. They didn’t get the free payday they imagined and now they are angry about that. If they get the democratic China they claim to want they still won’t get their free payday but instead might get an even more powerful contender for global hegemony.
Be careful what you wish for!
Chinese Communist Party Structure
The CCP tries to have a membership which is a truly representative sample of China's population that reflect communists' ideals in practice. Basically, they want boy scouts on steroids. The CCP is currently around 10% of China’s population. which is actually huge for a revolutionary vanguard party. Of course, the red princelings and princesses, heirs of the revolution, get de facto automatically in. Thus, China still faces the problems of clan governance namely nepotism and risks of corruption. The CCP has many, many normal people from all economic sectors. Would-be party members basically do lots of unpaid volunteer work to prove their good faith. The CCP also has members who should not be in a revolutionary communist vanguard party like Jack Ma (a capitalist) and Jackie Chan (a patriotic capitalist). Communist and billionnaire seem like antonyms to me. There is so much about the CCP today that is revisionist by pre-Deng standards it is tough to see the CCP as “communist” or even “socialist”. It’s also tough to see it as a brutal violent revolutionary dictatorship willing to starve its own people, smash historic artefacts, or beat down and even kill intellectuals without reason. Consequently, the current CCP should be regarded as a nationalist party implementing state capitalist mercantilism. It is trying to reform itself out of totalitarian dictatorship and into authoritarian democracy.
Regarding the party: Normal people can work very hard and may (or may not!) thereby earn their party membership. However, the in-club of princelings is always, always insiders. You, very likely, are always an outsider.
I do believe China will never again face blood-purges of party members. I don't expect a return to cultural revolution era "norms". The Chinese people are hard working and intelligent. They are not stupid. They want to live well. They won't just throw away their economic miracle, no matter how many anglo-crapitalists spit in their faces or how very often they spit in Chinese faces instead of saying “thank you for all that cheap swag!” China and the CCP get a pass as far as I am concerned: they likely will learn. But Putin gets Death. He clearly learned the wrong lessons. I'm a carrots and styx kinda fella. We will see what China learns from feasting on the corpse of the Russian Federation and helping reduce it to Muscovy.
China’s Hopeful Monsters
China has these experiments:
North Korea for crazy ideology.
Singapore for state-capitalism.
Hong Kong for liberal democracy.
Taiwan as a playground for spies of all kinds (industrial as well as military).
Macau for money laundering
Stalin once said all he needs to do to get the West to scream is squeeze Berlin. All Beijing need do to make the West scream is squeeze Taiwan.
China has never had the idea of free speech. Hong Kong had (had) that.
Since the crackdown in Hong Kong after the 2019 riots Hong Kong no longer has Western liberal democratic free speech. Whether Hong Kong can maintain rule of law is questionable. Hong Kong never had more or less democracy than the mainland, popular myth to the contrary. When Britain ruled, Hong Kong was a colony, with British laws including liberal press freedoms, but no democratic mass input.
The end of one country two systems in Hong Kong means such a system could never apply to Taiwan. By cracking down in Hong Kong China more or less assured that Taiwan will never vote to join the mainland. Now that one country two systems is de facto ended in HK there will not bee free speech in China. All these safe experimental zones for China are fragile, and may be ignored or shut down.
Any chance for free speech in China as a legal right is now gone. How is that surprising? How much free speech is there in Singapore? Taiwan? I don’t regard Singapore as a free speech oasis. I’m cautiously optimistic about free speech in Taiwan.
Free speech, press, and assembly, though related are distinct. Each of these rights is used to aggregate, concentrate, focus, and direct political willpower. These are also fundamental human rights because they determine and protect truth. Thus the failed and flawed idea of a “marketplace of ideas” (markets often have dishonesty)(markets are about subjective desires rather than objective truths) is erroneous. The idea that these are protected rights to enable public expressions generally is wrong: these rights determine and defend truth, not subjective desires for self exprssion. The idea that conduct is speech is laughably bad. You don’t have a right to shit in public and call it art or a protest. The failure to coherently define and defend the exact contours of these rights explains the decadent decline of American liberalism as an attractive ideology. Do you honestly think foreigners look at Americanculture in admiration or emulation? Parts of American culture are repulsive.
I don’t see any quick smart way to justify free speech to the CCP as a basic rule, especially given the failure of American civil society.
The problem the CCP faces is the fact a single governing party with totalitarian powers acting as a dictatorship is a severely flawed governance system. Such mal-governance tries to do too much with too little feedback or control over potential excesses not to mention corruption. The CCP is trying to figure out how to reform itself of the flaws of totalitarian dictatorship without blowing itself, China, or all China’s progress in 30 years to pieces. The CCP knows it must somehow tolerate the people’s natural desire to express their daily problems, hopes, fears, and above all their dreams: to articulate their individual struggles as part of a greater collective struggle. But how?
Tiananmen and Hong Kong: the Party Learned not to go too far.
The protests in HK 2019 and Wurumqi Xinjiang in 2022 are not at all the same as Tiananmen. First, no massacre. Second, not in Beijing. Third, not involving any red princelings, at least so far as I see. Finally, popular protests achieved at least some of their goals. If anything would make me rethink my view of these events it would be “oh, these princelings in that faction were in fact supporting this protest movement in that city/region”.
The protests about the fire at Wurumqi did attain their goal of relaxing SARS II restrictions. However, the protestors protesting about the Wurumqi fire in Xinjiang did in fact also called for Xi Jinping to “step down”. Xi Jinping most certainly did not “step down”. Then again he also didn’t simply shoot the protestors dead. He did implement the policy changes the protesters demanded: reduced SARS II restrictions. The West, as usual, was displeased when China finally abandoned the SARS II restrictions the West had been complaining about three years. As I’ve said, the CCP is trying to figure out how to reform without blowing it all up. The West isn’t helping.
Musk & Tesla
Elon seems to have won the DP prize. Suckered by Russian disinformation bots inflating twitter’s subscriber base and LUREd into China with massive investments only to be TRAPped there and see his i.p. stripped and China fostering his local rival BYD and of course it ends with Tesla getting the same fate as NorthernTelecom KILLed to build the party-state-business. Idk how much of his personal fortune will be wiped out but i honestly expect Twitter and Tesla in China to fail. I don’t think boring co. can go anywhere (earth moving is hard work). That just leaves spacex which will wind up competing against cheap proton rockets made in Ukraine after the horrible war ends. This man is facing strategic problems as the result of strategic mis-steps. Maybe getting stoned on the airwaves wasn’t so smart after all?
NATO
Of course the USA is forging a Pacific NATO might even be called PTO.
Permanently Free. Guide to the common law and the bar exam for European jurists.
https://books2read.com/b/baoYaa
“Dear is Plato. Dearer still is Truth.” - Aristotle
Free for the next 5 days, only. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0B5FXV4LB
China is gonna eat as much of Russia's lunch as it can. I'm not above sparking a Chinese invasion of Russia. I'm really not. I don’t start wars. I end them.