PROXY WAR & FREE STRATEGY EBOOKS. YAMAL OIL IN RUSSIA BURNS.

book reviews are greatly appreciated! limited time free then the paywall goes up...

Eric Engle

May 12, 2025

Russian oil is back on the menu! Yamal Nenets oil field burns. Get used to it.

Ukraine's War: Strategies & Tactics for Victory

Strategy, War, & Diplomacy

American Eagle, Chinese Dragon

Mastering Populism & Authoritarian Democracy

MORE CHINESE WORDS!

Mastering Property Law for the Multistate Bar Exam

Gold, Geopolitics and Game Theory:

Mafia State Art Kiss Kiss Kill

The Vampire Trump Meets His Master

Translators, Traitors?

The Law Dictionary

Are you with the band? I hear you’re with the band

Behind the scenese it's fairly obvious China is pressuring Putin to make peace with Ukraine; it' also clear to me China is willing to see it's J-10 jet tested in Pakistan but would prefer peace between Pakistan and India. The USA does not seem to be encouraging, but not discouraging, India. That is, the minor powers actually involved in the proxy war are, as usual, the principal drivers of the local action, which occurs within a strategic framework determined by the major powers. Pakistan and India could drive each other into war or toward peace. But they will wind up deciding that. The consequences however will be determined by the great powers. While Putin would gladly see India, a country friendly to Russia, war on Pakistan, since India is likely to win, and to distract from Ukraine and divert weapons and munitions to the subcontinent that might otherwise have reached Ukraine, the fact that China can and is constraining Russia makes an India Pakistan peace likelier, and that is consistent with Chinese ideology. We should take others ideological statements at face value until and unless they diverge from their actions: actions speak louder than words.

https://www.fbi.gov/news/podcasts/inside-the-fbi-podcast-protecting-chinese-students-from-scammers

people whining about trump should give the fucker credit when he actually does the right thing and displays good faith ffs. Are national unity, actual respect for those duly elected, and/or patriotism so difficult?

Chinese Aircraft Performance in the Current Indo-Pakistan Conflict

Overview

The ongoing India-Pakistan conflict has provided the first large-scale, real-world test of advanced Chinese military aviation technology, particularly the J-10C fighter jet, against Western-made aircraft such as the French Rafale and Russian Su-30s. This engagement has drawn intense global scrutiny from military analysts, intelligence agencies, and defense industries2 3 8.

Key Observations

Combat Effectiveness: Multiple credible sources, including U.S. officials, confirm that Pakistani J-10C jets-Chinese-built, 4.5-generation multirole fighters-were responsible for downing at least two Indian military aircraft, including a Rafale, during a major aerial engagement1 2 3 5 6 9. Pakistani officials claim up to five Indian aircraft were shot down, but India has not acknowledged any losses5 6 9.
Missile Performance: The dogfight has highlighted the use of advanced air-to-air missiles, particularly the Chinese PL-15 (reportedly used by the J-10C) versus the European Meteor missile (carried by Indian Rafales)2 8 9. Open-source intelligence has circulated images of PL-15 missile wreckage, suggesting its active use9.
Tactical Dynamics: The engagement was characterized by stand-off tactics, with aircraft reportedly engaging at distances exceeding 100 km, leveraging beyond-visual-range missiles rather than close-in dogfighting9. This scenario plays to the strengths of the J-10C/PL-15 combination, which is designed for long-range interception8 9.
Operational Scale: The aerial battle involved over 100 aircraft and lasted more than an hour, making it one of the largest dogfights since World War II if numbers are accurate5 8. This provides a rare, large-scale dataset for evaluating Chinese systems in combat.
Strategic Implications: The performance of Chinese aircraft and munitions is being closely analyzed by militaries worldwide, including the U.S. and China itself, for implications in potential future conflicts, such as over Taiwan or in the broader Indo-Pacific1 2 3 6. The results are expected to influence procurement and doctrinal decisions in countries considering Chinese arms8.

Limitations and Caveats

Independent verification of exact losses and the detailed circumstances of each shootdown remains challenging, as India has not confirmed any aircraft losses and both sides are engaged in information operations1 5 6 9.
Analysts caution that factors such as pilot skill, rules of engagement, and electronic warfare may have influenced outcomes, and a single engagement does not provide a comprehensive assessment of platform superiority9.

Intelligence Assessment

Chinese aircraft, particularly the J-10C equipped with PL-15 missiles, have demonstrated credible combat performance against advanced Western fighters in this conflict, marking a significant milestone for Chinese arms exports and military prestige1 2 3 5 6 8 9.
The engagement provides a rare, valuable dataset for assessing the real-world effectiveness of Chinese military technology, especially in large-scale, high-intensity air combat against a peer adversary1 2 3 8.
While the results are favorable for Chinese systems, further analysis is needed as the full operational context and loss data remain contested and incomplete9.

"This aerial engagement provides a rare chance for military analysts globally to assess the effectiveness of pilots, aircraft, and air-to-air missiles in active combat, which can inform their own military preparations."1

Bottom Line: Chinese aircraft and missiles have, by most accounts, performed effectively in the current Indo-Pakistan conflict, achieving notable air-to-air kills against Indian forces. This outcome is likely to shape global perceptions of Chinese military technology and influence future arms procurement decisions, though caution is warranted until more independent data emerges1 2 3 8 9.

Citations:

Word of the day "proxy war".

Sample sentence "China and the USA are waging a proxy war in the Indian subcontinent. Pakistan and India are their respective proxies."

French: La Chine et les États-Unis mènent une guerre par procuration dans le sous-continent indien. Le Pakistan et l'Inde sont leurs mandataires respectifs.
Spanish: China y Estados Unidos están librando una guerra por poder en el subcontinente indio. Pakistán e India son sus respectivos apoderados.
German: China und die USA führen einen Stellvertreterkrieg auf dem indischen Subkontinent. Pakistan und Indien sind ihre jeweiligen Stellvertreter.
Estonian: Hiina ja Ameerika Ühendriigid viivad võõrariikide sõda India alamkontinendil. Pakistan ja India on nende vastavate võõrariikideks.
Russian: Китай и США ведут войну по доверенности в Индийском субконтиненте. Пакистан и Индия являются их соответствующими доверенными лицами.
Ukrainian: Китай і США ведуть війну за дорученням в Індійському субконтиненті. Пакистан і Індія є їхніми відповідними довіреними особами.
Mandarin Chinese: 中国和美国正在印度次大陆打代理战争。巴基斯坦和印度是他们的代理人。 (Zhōngguó hé měiguó zhèngzài yìndù cìdàlù dǎ dàilǐ zhànzhēng. Bājīsītǎn hé yìndù shì tāmen de dàilǐrén.)