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http link is at the end of the newsletter. No Ukraine updates in this one.
Analytical conclusion: Ukraine will win. Putin will end up in the docket for war crimes.
Course of conflict: grinding attrition but steady advances due to winter favoring Ukraine, lack of Russian supply, including water in Crimea. “Novorossiya” will be completely liberated by Spring, at latest. “Malorussia” will be liberated in its entirety by summer. Regime in Moscow will at some point oust Putin
Policy analysis consequence: Shifting focus to Iran.
ENGLISH
Iran issues first known death sentence linked to recent protests https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/iran-issues-first-known-death-sentence-linked-to-recent-protests.html
Iran antagonizes neighbors to distract from its failings https://www.arabnews.com/node/2199421
This is a very common practice by authoritarians and dictatorships; stoke foreign problems to distract from domestic problems. Argentine Dictator Galtieri tried that back in 1982. What became of him again?
Iran sends German-Iranian activist on medical leave back to prison https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-sends-german-iranian-activist-on-medical-leave-back-to-prison/
Iran Opens UAV Factory In Tajikistan; Its Booming Drone Industry Endangers The Entire Middle East & Central Asia https://eurasiantimes.com/iran-opens-uav-factory-in-tajikistan-its-booming-drone-industry/
DEUTSCH/LAND GERMANY ALLEMAGNE
Politik Einreiseverbote und Geldentzug EU verhängt neue Sanktionen gegen Iran https://www.n-tv.de/politik/EU-verhaengt-neue-Sanktionen-gegen-Iran-article23716112.html
Die Kinder der Revolution https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/proteste-in-iran-die-kinder-der-revolution-18454820.html
Verurteilte Deutsch-Iranerin zurück im Ewin-Gefängnis https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2022-11/deutsch-iranerin-zurueck-im-gefaengnis?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.google.com%2F
Frankreichs Präsident plädiert für "scharfe diplomatische Antwort" gegen den Iran https://www.stern.de/news/frankreichs-praesident-plaediert-fuer--scharfe-diplomatische-antwort--gegen-den-iran-32909040.html
FRANCE
Manifestations en Iran : Emmanuel Macron salue « le courage » du peuple iranien https://www.ouest-france.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/direct-manifestations-en-iran-suivez-l-entretien-d-emmanuel-macron-sur-france-inter-d947a29c-63d9-11ed-8b14-16e41791c263
Le Royaume-Uni prend de nouvelles sanctions contre l’Iran https://www.ouest-france.fr/europe/royaume-uni/le-royaume-uni-prend-de-nouvelles-sanctions-contre-l-iran-5afbf1c6-642f-11ed-9eef-273910f6f2a4
AMELIORER TON FRANCAIS ORALE EN ECOUTANT
https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/frappes-d-iran-contre-ses-opposants-kurdes-en-irak-20221114
Frappes de l'Iran contre ses opposants kurdes en Irak, un mort et 8 blessés
LA PRATIQUE ORALE EVITE LES MALS AUX YEUX (EYESTRAIN RELIEF: PODCAST!)
Rencontre avec Zar Amir Ebrahimi et Golshifteh Farahani : “En Iran, si le voile tombe, le reste s’effondrera” https://www.telerama.fr/cinema/rencontre-avec-zar-amir-ebrahimi-et-golshifteh-farahani-en-iran-si-le-voile-tombe-le-reste-s-effondrera-7012947.php
Guerre en Ukraine : comment le conflit bloque un accord sur le nucléaire iranien https://www.sudouest.fr/international/europe/ukraine/guerre-en-ukraine-comment-le-conflit-bloque-un-accord-sur-le-nucleaire-iranien-12814841.php
SPAIN ESPANA
Irán acusa a otras 440 personas por participar en protestas https://www.elsiglodetorreon.com.mx/noticia/2022/iran-acusa-a-otras-440-personas-por-participar-en-protestas.html
中文
习近平抵达巴厘岛出席二十国集团领导人第十七次峰会
http://mod.gov.cn/shouye/2022-11/14/content_4926015.htm
FROM CIPHER BRIEF
WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BRING CHANGE TO IRAN -- "The latest uprising in Iran has been different to earlier ones," writes Cipher Brief Expert and former head of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service Nick Warner in The Cipher Brief.
"...student protests in 1999, widespread demonstrations in 2009 following Presidential elections, and a rolling series of protests in 2017 and 2019, against the government’s economic policies (GDP dropped by almost 60% between 2017 and 2020, and about 40% of Iranians live under the poverty line)."
"This time, it has been more sustained and broader based – initially made up of girls and young women, but joined by Iranians of all ages and backgrounds, cosmopolitan Tehranis, oil workers, Baluchis in the east, and Kurds in the west."
"It has also been about a much sharper rejection of the Islamic Republic, in all its aspects, small and big."
Read What it will take to bring Change to Iran in The Cipher Brief
Learn Chinese Characters & Vocabulary: Lexical Analysis with Cryptograms and Frequency Attacks! (Hanzi 汉字) (Quizmaster Learn Chinese 学中文 Book 4) Kindle Edition https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0B3VRL5YF/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i1
Word of the day 和平 peace, die Friede, la paix, la paz