Russia Burns. Chinese Firewalls!

火炎焱燚! 解放西伯利亚!

Contents: China essay, videos, refuting Kotkin, news (long hit list!). guest essay, learn Chinese.

CHINESE WALLS: DETERRING WAR TO ENABLE COMMERCE

VICES, SELF IMPROVEMENT, AND LEADERSHIP

The perils of demagoguery. It is a siren's song, beckoning leaders in both the United States and China to succumb to the base instincts of their populations, luring either to the destruction of both! It is all too easy to whip up hate and fear, whether in the USA or China. This is however a very foolish course of action, whether for Washington or Beijing. That is a path fraught with peril, it is a recipe for discord and strife, rather than a prescription for progress and cooperation.

The exploitation of fear and prejudice is a dangerous game that can have devastating consequences for both the United States and China. Rather than pointing fingers at others, it's essential to engage in self-reflection and criticism. For in our haste to assign blame, we often overlook the flaws that lie within. Self-criticism helps us understand our own beliefs and actions and recognize our motives, biases, and flaws. We can then improve ourselves, becoming better and more effective people. Moreover, by understanding our flaws and then refinining our character we can set a powerful example, one that inspires others to follow in our footsteps, creating a ripple effect of positive change. Self-improvement is not only of personal benefit it is also a necessary step towards building a better society with greater wealth and justice for all. There is no substitute for leadership by example.

ECONOMIC WARFARE

As we reflect on the complex dynamics of the Sino-American relationship, it becomes increasingly evident that an attempt by the United States to suppress the Chinese economy would be a grave mistake, full of far-reaching deleterious consequences. Although the USA might be able to suppress, in other words ruin, the Chinese economy, that would be very foolish in the long term, and ultimately self-destructive. Such an unfortunate outcome could only result from errors which arise when peoples are whipped into hate and fear by would-be autocrats.

We must acknowledge China's military posture is fundamentally defensive in nature, devoid of aggressive intentions. China has not waged war in over forty years.

This reality underscores the notion that any economic coercion or "kneecapping" the Chinese economy would be a misguided and counterproductive strategy. Such a policy of reducing and actively hindering the Chinese economy would not only be detrimental to the global economy but also precipitate a chain reaction of retaliatory measures, ultimately harming American interests. The consequences of such a move would be twofold.

• First, it would lead to a decline in global trade, causing widespread economic instability and stagnation, a new great depression, likely unleashing a third world war: war and poverty are positively associated, one causes the other.

• Second, it would drive China to seek alternative partnerships, likely leading to a shift in the global balance of power. Rather than a benign benevolent productive panda, we would be confronted by a righteous and enraged winged serpent.

The impetus for a misguided policy of economic warfare against China would likely stem from the machinations of would-be autocrats, who seek to manipulate public sentiment by fomenting hate and fear. This phenomenon is not unique to the United States, as history has repeatedly demonstrated the dangers of demagoguery and the devastating consequences of unchecked nationalism.

For instance, the rise of fascist regimes in Europe during the 1930s was fueled by a toxic brew of hatred and fear of foreigners, economic anxiety, and political opportunism. Similarly, the current wave of populist sentiment sweeping across the world is often characterized by a simplistic and misguided worldview, that can be exploited by cunning politicians seeking to consolidate power. This is exactly what we must consciously work together to avoid!

Thus, regarding Sino-American relations, it is essential to eschew emotional and reactionary responses. Instead, we should opt for a nuanced and pro-active pragmatic approach that acknowledges the complexities of our relationship: competition and cooperation, challenge and mastery. Engaging in constructive dialogue, fostering greater economic cooperation, and addressing the legitimate concerns of both nations is the way ahead.

Some might argue that a supposedly strong stance waging economic war against China is necessary to counter China's growing economic and military influence. They will paint it as patriotism. But their purported strength hides real weakness. Their reactive perspective neglects the reality that China's rise is, to a significant extent, a product of its integration into the global economy, facilitated by the very same international institutions and norms that the United States has long championed. China is one of America's greatest foreign policy successes, and to fear that which we have fostered is foolish. To seek the economic destruction of China because of misplaced military fears would be like "throwing the baby out with the bath-water". Moreover, a confrontational approach would only serve to reinforce China's perception of the United States as a hegemonic power seeking to constrain its growth, thereby fueling nationalist sentiment and undermining the prospects for cooperation.

Policymakers should adopt a more informed and nuanced approach, one that prioritizes cooperation, mutual understanding, and a commitment to the principles of free trade and economic interdependence to obtained desired goals.

MILITARY CONTAINMENT TO ENABLE ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT

Military and national security concerns about China are comprehensible. Chinese espionage and arms build-ups characterize the current state of confrontation. Yet, things could be far worse: there are no proxy wars, no state-sponsored terrorism, just a vast array of problems of mutual concern, many of which are non-state actors such as terrorists or pirates. Sino-American State-to-State interactions can and will be moderated by policies of military containment, intended to enable further and deeper trade and investment: peace through prosperity was and is the way forward, backstopped with strong deterrence.

While some may argue that the rise of China poses an existential threat to American dominance to be firmly rooted out, or even crushed, I firmly believe that the USA will simply contain China militarily. The military containment of China is not to spark conflict, but to prevent it. Military containment of China will ensure that both nations can continue to reap the benefits of mutually beneficial trade and investment.

This containment strategy is not a zero-sum game, where one side's gain is the other's loss. Rather, it is a nuanced approach that acknowledges the interdependence of the global economy and the devastating consequences of unchecked aggression. By maintaining a strong military presence in East Asia in concert with many powerful Pacific Allies, for France and Britain are both Pacific powers, thanks to their insular possession there, the United States will deter China from pursuing expansionist policies, while also reassuring its allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific. Constrained by over-match, contained, and thus deterred, China will thereby avoid a costly and futile arms race. Containment and commerce is not a recipe for conflict, but rather a necessary step to prevent miscalculations and misadventures that could have catastrophic consequences. The future missions of the People's Liberation Army Navy will be further humanitarian relief operations in disaster zones with Peace Ark, anti-piracy operations, and scientific research expeditions whether to the polar regions or the oceans' depths — not some suicidal storming of Taiwan. All that will advance Chinese interests and prove to the rest of the world that China is a responsible partner, not some rogue state of war criminals similar to Putin's Russia.

TAIWAN

The Taiwan question is the most important case in point. Any attempt by China to invade Taiwan will be met with fierce resistance from the United States, including military intervention, not only because of an ideological commitment to democracy, but also because a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would trigger a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions. The resulting conflict would almost surely lead to yet another Chinese civil war, with millions of casualties, and even resulting in famine, as well as widespread destruction and consequent lost wealth and loss of production. This is a nightmare scenario both for China and the USA and one that neither side can afford. Thus, it will be prevented, with a two fisted policy of economic engagement alongside military containment to maintain then status quo.

History has repeatedly demonstrated the devastating consequences of war. The Chinese Civil War, which lasted from 1927 to 1950, resulted in millions of deaths and widespread destruction. A modern-day conflict over Taiwan would be equally devastating, with massive loss of life, economic disruption, and even famine.

History is also replete with examples of great powers that have walked the tightrope of deterrence and containment. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in a decades-long game of nuclear brinksmanship, where the threat of mutually assured destruction kept the peace. Similarly, in the 19th century, the European great powers maintained a delicate balance of power, where any attempt to upset the status quo would be met with collective resistance. Containing and constraining China to lawful peaceful profitable conduct will be far less fraught with risks and dangers than those historic examples because the world has learned many lessons about the correct relationships between production, prosperity, and peace from exactly those historic examples.

Thus, the actions and reactions of the United States and China will inevitably converge to a common mutually desired solution: the maintenance of peace and thus also the maintenance of the status quo in Taiwan. Taiwan will continue to serve as an entrepot for Chinese and Western goods and capital with strong and friendly cross straits relations. This is not a static equilibrium, but a dynamic process of negotiation, diplomacy, and compromise. It requires a deep understanding of each other's interests and concerns, as well as a willingness to engage in creative problem-solving and crisis management.

By recognizing the mutual benefits of trade and investment, and the devastating consequences of unchecked aggression, we can create a framework for cooperation and competition that serves the interests of both nations, and indeed, the world at large. The Sino-American relationship is characterized by a mutual understanding that the costs of conflict far outweigh any potential benefits. This understanding is reinforced by the interdependence of their economies, as well as the shared interests in maintaining regional stability and preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

CHINA AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

As I regard the trajectory of China's astonishing economic growth over the past four decades, it reminds me of the relationships among power, prosperity, and peace.

China has enjoyed an unprecedented era in all Chinese history: forty years of economic growth which has lifted even the poorest Chinese person into moderate prosperity. This has been because during these forty years China has also enjoyed an unprecedented peace. These two facts are directly related. Had China pursued military adventures it would not have enjoyed such remarkable economic growth.

China's unprecedented era of economic success is a testament to China's ability to harness its vast human capital and natural resources.

As China's economic influence extends beyond its borders, it is crucial to recognize that its successes will continue to have a profound impact on the global economy, particularly in regions such as Africa, Asia, and South America. The Chinese model, which has lifted millions out of poverty, will likely be replicated in other parts of the world, leading to a new era of global growth and prosperity.

However, this economic success also brings with it a sense of unease, as it creates the potential for China to embark on a path of militarism and adventurism. While I believe that China is unlikely to pursue such a course, it is essential for other nations to prepare for any eventuality, not out of hostility, but out of a desire to maintain peace and stability.

We face the choice of either

1. an upward spiral of peace enabling production fostering prosperity and thereby foreclosing war: driven by faith, mutual confidence, and hope and desires. Cross border trade and investment fuels this. OR, instead

2. a downward spiral of fear and hate fueling war, wasting production, squandering wealth, resulting in poverty, reinforcing feelings of fear and hate all of which fosters more wars. Military containment and deterrence will prevent this.

CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY

If China considers itself somehow enircled then China's foreign policy choices must also be scrutinized. China has border disputes with literally all of China's neighbors. Why is that? If China feels itself encircled we may well ask, whose fault is that? It is essential to acknowledge that these tensions are, in part, a result of China's own actions, and that China must take responsibility for its role in perpetuating these conflicts. China should resolve all its territorial disputes peacefully to end any sense of military risk or lawlessness from the Chinese government.

Or, more tellingly, let's consider China's "no limits, no matter what" partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a war criminal. That fact raises serious concerns about China's commitment to upholding international law and respecting the sovereignty of other nations.

Alongside rampant espionage and a massive arms buildup these Chinese foreign policy choices explain why China faces containment. But this is a wise nuanced policy which constrains China from Russian style misadventures so China can continue to enjoy peace and prosperity.

We face the choice of either

1. an upward spiral of peace enabling production fostering prosperity and thereby foreclosing war: driven by faith, mutual confidence, and hope and desires OR

2. a downward spiral of fear and hate fueling war, wasting production, squandering wealth, resulting in poverty, reinforcing feelings of fear and hate all of which fosters more wars.

I suggest you contain China militarily to continue to engage with China economically. China wants further reform, greater democracy, rule of law, peace and prosperity.

THE RUSSIAN WAR ON UKRAINE

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which I have long argued is an imperialist war against the Ukrainian people, is a stark reminder of the dangers of unchecked aggression and the importance of promoting a rules-based international order. I have spent about a decade convincing Israelis and Jews that Ukrainians are not nazis. I also have spent about three years now pointing out to the CCP the fact that Russia's ongoing war crime, Russia's unilateral unjustified invasion of Ukraine, is in fact an imperialist war waged by Russia against the Ukrainian proletariat. This is how you win wars: you rally allies by using their own language and their own ideas to support your cause.

Russia's war on Ukraine will be the world's last imperialist war. The era of great power rivalries and imperialist expansion will give way to a new era of cooperation and mutual respect.

Thereafter, we will witness a global growth comparable to that of the 1990s, as the successful China model is extended to other regions. Just like China lifted its poorest into moderate prosperity China will also lift Africa out of poverty, though I suspect China will be unable or unwilling to bring peace to the war-torn regions of Africa. I would like to be wrong. Still, the wealth China will help unleash in the peaceful parts of Africa will indirectly lead to fewer wars in the war like parts of Africa, notably central Africa.

I can understand why China or Chinese people might be upset at the prospect of military containment, especially since China has not waged war in 40 years. Perhaps however Chinese people should prefer continue to enjoy peace rather than engage in foreign policy misadventures like, Xi Jinping's "no limits, no matter what" partner, the war criminal Vladimir Putin did. It is essential for China to recognize the importance of choosing its partners wisely. The partnership with Vladimir Putin, a war criminal, is a stark reminder of the dangers of aligning oneself with rogue states and leaders who disregard international law and human rights.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, China's economic success is a remarkable achievement, an economic miracle. It must be tempered by a commitment to responsible leadership and a respect for international law. As China continues to grow and exert its influence on the world stage, it must do so in a way that promotes peace, stability, and cooperation, rather than militarism and adventurism. The world is watching, and China's choices will have far-reaching implications for generations to come.

VIDEOS: TOLD YA SO!

Unfortunately, Kotkin is wrong. Russia has no future. Muscovy has a future, albeit bleak. Novgorod has a great future! So do the Komi, Mari, and Nenets republics. I think Yakutia Republic also has a great future! We can ask ourselves whether Buryatia, Bashkortistan, and Chechnya will have a great future but its pretty obvious they are really not happy to be ruled by Muscovy.

Kotkin is imagining a really nice, in other words totally unrealistic, future about Russia somehow getting along nicely with "the West" and Russia turning into France. That's not gonna happen, because you can't build a multinational empire based on force and fraud and then get along nicely with any of your neighbors. “Russia” isn’t going to magically turn into France because Russia was ruled by the vicious savage Mongol horde for 200 years and learned thereby to be just as vicious in war and so usually (not always) wins its wars in the end by being terribly savage in combat. Russia never had a liberal revolution, a rule of law culture, just the opposite, conspiratorial Boyars, conspiratorial Leninists, conspiratorial Putinists is what enabled Russia to escape the Mongol yoke. Russia could not have been liberal and survived as a people let alone as a state.

The neocons also gave you very pretty happy talk. How did that work out again?

Kotkin also seems to imagine it is possible to negotiate with a lying thieving war criminal. Laughable. Either Kotkin does not know how an actual mafia runs, or is ignorant of CONTEMPORARY (as opposed to communist) Russia, or is being dishonest. I have never known Kotkin to be dishonest. In any case, Kotkin is wrong in his imaginings of Muscovy’s future. Kotkin’s errors would cost the Republic greatly, and would merely result in many more dead Ukrainians down the road when Russia rearms rebuilds and strikes again.

The future I am charting out for Russia is better than any alternative because it punishes the criminal regime instead of rewarding him. It also liberates the regions conquered and colonized by Muscovy over three centuries of neo-mongol illiberal conquest. Territorial “concessions” to Russia would reward Russia for its smash and grab rape rob and murder festival. But who am I to propose the two state solution is bad? Rewarding the criminal regime in Moscow for its crime would not just give Russia time to rest rearm and try again in a few years because it would also give Russia the incentive for another smash and grab.
does Kotkin also think Israel should make territorial “concessions” to the Gazans?

Maybe, just maybe, shut up and let Great Britain aka the Commonwealth do your thinking for you. Because if this is your best Russia expert, and he is, you are gonna fuck up U.S. foreign policy again just like the neocons did. After all you "see further" and are the "indispensible power". Laughable. 20 years of U.S. foreign policy failure after failure are ending now. Burns. It all Burns.

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-troops-ukraine-emmanuel-macron-russia-1896596

News: Long Hit List!

IT ALL BURNS!

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukrainian-Drones-Hit-Major-Rosneft-Refinery-in-Russia.html Get used to it. Not sorry.

В Москве с помощью авиации тушат крупный пожар на территории завода https://www.fontanka.ru/2024/05/02/73532501/
Moscow: "Artificial Stone" Factory Burns
В Москве загорелся мощный пожар: горит один из заводов. Видео https://news.obozrevatel.com/russia/v-moskve-zagorelsya-moschnyij-pozhar-gorit-odin-iz-zavodov-video.htm

На одном из крупнейших кабельных заводов России в Томске произошел пожар https://ngs70.ru/text/incidents/2024/05/03/73532885/
Tomsk: Cable Factory Burns
Пожар произошел в пятницу ночью на крыше завода "Сибкабель" в Томске https://www.riatomsk.ru/article/20240503/sibkabelj-pozhar-tomsk

Reuters: на Рязанском НПЗ после атаки БПЛА 1 мая случился пожар https://progorod62.ru/news/50727
Ryzan Oil Burns

В Екатеринбурге произошел пожар в воинской части. Пострадали два солдата https://www.e1.ru/text/incidents/2024/05/03/73533128/
Ekatarinaburg Military Quarter Burns

Flying Balloon goes Baboom over Vladivostok

https://vremya.press/vo-vladivostoke/ Видео: во Владивостоке летающий газовый баллон устроил взрыв и разбил стену дома

https://mosregtoday.ru/news/sec/shot-vrag-atakuet-afipskij-npz-na-kubani-slyshny-zvuki-vzryvov/
Kuban: Oil Burns.

Ukraine claims to have hit at least six oil installations:

Orlov Rostov Smolensk Bryansk Kursk Krasnodar

https://life.ukrainianwall.com/127827-masova-ataka-po-rosiji-nashi-droni-nakrili-vidrazu-6-oblastey

RUSSIAN SHAdOW OIL FLEET IS ALSO ON THE MENU!

Guest Essay: Ian Raek (anonymized)

The Rise of China: A Critical Examination of its Ambitions and Limitations

The notion that China is poised to replace the United States as the global hegemon has been a topic of intense debate in recent years. While some argue that China's rapid economic growth and military modernization are indicative of its ambition to supplant the USA, others are more skeptical. In this essay, we will examine the evidence and argue that China's rise does not necessarily fit the historical pattern of behavior of a rising power seeking to replace the current hegemon.

Firstly, it is essential to recognize that the USA itself did not exhibit aggressive behavior towards Great Britain, the previous hegemon, until the latter's collapse after World War II. Instead, the USA was content to serve as a junior partner, biding its time until the opportunity to assume the mantle of global leadership arose. Similarly, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that China harbors ambitions to replace the USA as the global hegemon. China's primary focus has been on domestic development and regional influence, rather than seeking to supplant the USA.

Furthermore, even if China were to desire to replace the USA, it is questionable whether it has the capacity to do so. China's economy is heavily dependent on natural resources, which are rapidly depleting. The country's major rivers are drying up, soil fertility is diminishing, and groundwater is almost depleted. These environmental challenges have led to China's dependence on importing foodstuffs to prevent famine. In addition, China's economy is vulnerable to US manipulation, particularly in the event of a trade war. A US decision to reduce imports from China by rapidly reindustrializing would have a devastating impact on China's economy. Moreover, the USA's control of the global financial system could be used to deflate China's economy, further limiting its ability to challenge US hegemony.

In the event of a confrontation over Taiwan, the USA's superior air and naval assets would give it a significant advantage over China. This military disparity would make it difficult for China to project power beyond its borders, let alone challenge the USA's global dominance.

Some may argue that China is playing the long game, waiting for the USA to display fatigue before making its move to replace it. However, this strategy is flawed, as China's natural resources will be completely exhausted in 50 years or less, leading to economic stagnation and increased dependence on the USA for life support. The Belt Road Initiative, often touted as a symbol of China's growing influence, will not reduce China's economic dependence on the USA.

In conclusion, we believe that the USA is willing to allow China to play an important role in Asia as a junior partner. Elevating China to junior partner status would require the USA to cease its racist attacks on China and China to desist from accusing the USA of acting irresponsibly as hegemon. The USA should stop making accusations of human rights violations, and China should refrain from criticizing the USA's role as hegemon. It is essential to recognize that China has greatly benefited from the period of peace enforced by the USA, which has enabled it to develop and grow.

In the long term, a more collaborative approach between the USA and China would be beneficial for both nations. The USA could provide guidance and support to help China address its environmental and economic challenges, while China could contribute to global governance and regional stability. By working together, both nations could create a more peaceful and prosperous world, rather than engaging in a futile struggle for dominance.

In addition, the USA and China could explore areas of cooperation, such as addressing climate change, promoting sustainable development, and combating global terrorism. By doing so, they could create a more stable and secure world, where both nations could thrive and prosper.

Ultimately, the rise of China is not a zero-sum game, where one nation's gain must come at the expense of another. Instead, it presents an opportunity for cooperation and collaboration, where both nations can work together to create a better future for themselves and the world at large.

https://www.lto.de/recht/hintergruende/h/openjur-open-access-datenbank-datenschutz-haftung-dsgvo/

I think it likelier that the "Trisolarians" are Russians: a dying culture, bent on making war, violent, ugly, horrible.

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