On War
The People need Hope.
Give them hope and they will follow you to victory!
Take away their hope and watch them be destroyed.
"If I had enough ribbons I could conquer the world." Napoleon Bonaparte
In 1940, London burning, France conquered, Russia well armed, nazis on the march and victorious everywhere. Japan had occupied about 1/3 of China, and Indochina too.
Churchill was optimistic.
So was Mao Zedong.
Really.
He had faith in his beliefs. He had faith in truth. He had faith in decency, honour and courage. What did his enemies have? Lies! Brutality! How could they possibly prevail? The could not and must not!
I am sure we can easily find things to oppose about bother Churchill and Mao. However, their confidence and capacity to project that confidence into conviction and courage is why they were leaders. Neither could have won without moral virtue.
That illustrates a principle: “In war, the moral is to the material as three is to one.” -Napoleon Bonaparte.
Many politicians are ignorant of war. War and politics are different skills. Politics isn't the continuation of war by other means. Clausewitz was wrong about that, and Clausewitz's wrong idea led Germany to defeat in not one but two global wars.
Ukraine will win: “Every battle is won before it's ever fought.” Sun Tzu
Ukraine will win. But at what cost? I want the cost in Ukrainian blood to be as low as possible.
"All war is based on deception" Sun Tzu. So,
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak” - Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
We would like to make Rus concentrate on things that don't matter: Provoke them to put their attention where it is most useless.
Make the war about Putin not because his clique (klikiy) of fellow vampires would do differently but because their in-fighting and self-destruction will impede their war effort.
Even if the U.S. President disagreed with me, and he does not, even if the Prime Minister disagreed with me, even if President Macron himself disagreed: Forces have been unleashed which I cannot stop but can and will direct and steer as bloodlessly as possible: not without bloodshed. This end with Putin dead or in the dock for war crimes and Russia will be splintered apart and reduced to Muscovy. Even Biden could not stop that, even if he wanted to, and he does not. It's the cartelization of monoplists of violence. I happen to lie at the interstices of their war machines and thus am in best position to coordinate their smooth operation.
Princess wants jets?
Princess gets jets.
义
Word of the Day: panic, pánico, Panik, paanika, паніка, паника, 恐慌
The objective in war is to cause the enemy to panic, break, run, and surrender.
L'objectif en temps de guerre est de causer la panique, la rupture, la fuite et la reddition de l'ennemi.
El objetivo en la guerra es hacer que el enemigo entre en pánico, se rompa, huya y se rinda.
Das Ziel im Krieg ist es, den Feind in Panik zu versetzen, zu brechen, zu vertreiben und zur Kapitulation zu zwingen.
Sõja eesmärk on põhjustada vaenlases paanikat, murdumist, põgenemist ja alistumist.,
Метою війни є змушення ворога впасти у паніку, зламатися, втекти та капітулювати.战争的目的是使敌人陷入恐慌、崩溃、逃跑和投降。
Yes, China is a big winner. So? Countries that don’t invade other countries do better. This is a problem, how?
Putin’s position has not been strengthened. It has been greatly weakened.
It would be better were Mearsheimer able to pronounce Prigozhin correctly. He quite clearly said Prizhogin, at least twice. :/ No one has seen Prigozhin alive for three weeks now. He’s probably dead.
Mearsheimer believes the war will end with Russia controlling 40% of Ukraine and the rest of Ukraine being a dysfunctional rump state. Mearsheimer is wrong about that: Russia is thoroughly corrupt, Ukraine is not. Russia has no allies. Ukraine has many. Ukrainians are motivated. Russians are not. These are just a few of the reasons Ukraine will win.
I can easily imagine the CCP believe Mearsheimer to be correct, because people believe what is convenient and consistent with their pre-existing beliefs (cognitive fallacy: confirmation bias).
Carrots: If China wants the Amur valley back it should subvert, undermine, and backstab Russia.
Sticks: The Taiwan relations act makes perfectly clear that the United States will in fact defend Taiwan were China so foolish as to invade.
“What Chinese dream of” is Russian propaganda but may be useful for studying Chinese-Russian diplomacy and is a good language exercise. Maybe Chinese people dream of getting back the lands Russia stole from China?
China has no current intention (or desire) to invade Taiwan due to Russia’s failure to obtain a rapid easy victory in Ukraine and also because of the negative example of Galtieri’s invasion of Falklands (Argentine-UK war 1982) and because China would prefer not to kill Chinese people.
The Great Pacific Peace
We will build a grand productive pacific because of the risks of war. Trade and investment obviate war. They could not decouple, then they could not even de-risk, so now they seek to diversify their supply chains. Internal circulation also proved impossible! They will avoid war because they prefer prosperity, and prosperity results from trade. They will also avoid war because they prepare for it. That’s just basic deterrence
Kotkin’s a bit wrong about China, but other than me he’s the best You have.
Kotkin is unable to envision the solution whereby China and the USA recognize and reconcile their differences, because he only partly appreciates their differences: he is a Russia expert, not a China expert, and will tend for that reason to project Russia's horrible failed experiment with Leninism onto China's experiment with Maoism. He will project the flaws and faults of Russia and Russian Marxism onto China and Chinese Marxism. This prevents him from figuring out how to build peace and prosperity across the entire pacific. It may also be his having not brought together hegemonic stability theory, liberal peace-through-trade theory, realist deterrence theory, collective security, and international human rights together, to form a general theory of global peace, which I have done and just summarized it in one sentence for you wonderful people. Despite this, Kotkin is more right than wrong and more right than all the other analysts excluding myself. Kotkin is worth watching and carefully considering.
Example? China has a California. It’s called… 加利福尼亚. If Kotkin read Mahan he would know having only one coast is advantageous since then one’s fleet is concentrated, not dispersed. Russia has three or even four coasts yet it’s navy is notoriously weak
Americans, including Kotkin, generally fail to comprehend the great proletarian cultural revolution. It's not my job to explain it to you. Most of you will fail to see it in historic context due to ignorance of Chinese history; others of you will even lie about it or misinterpret it. So why bother? Also: Part of out-maneuvering one's counterpart is to have a more accurate comprehension of reality. Not revealing reality is different from obscuring reality. I do not obscure reality. I do reveal it.
Kotkin's not always right, unfortunately, and Niall Ferguson is sometimes flat out wrong. Remember when Ferguson reprised chicken little about China as the arsenal of autocracy, forcing me to publicly tell you all he was wrong? Kotkin also misapprehends China somewhat. but much less so than Ferguson. Mostly Kotkin misapprehends the cultural revolution and China's objectives, and still wants to imagine a liberal democratic, in other words Westernized, China: that will not happen. There are significant differences between Chinese and European cultures.
FENG1.
Abundant bee flew in the wind to the maple on the mountain peak. Crazy!
丰富 的蜜蜂乘风飞向山峰的枫树。 疯狂的!
Alcohol, Cigarettes, Narcotics, and Lottery are Weapons in Class War. Guess which class they kill? Guess which class they profit?
Just because you’re not wearing a uniform doesn’t mean you’re not at war.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/friction-confusion-among-russian-leadership-since-mutiny-us-general-2023-07-13/I’m still figuring out whether I can out-think Wang Huning. Maybe!
Let’s Hope Ukraine’s diplomats can explain to China the terrible truth in no uncertain terms.
Let’s hope I can convince you all to live together in a tolerant inclusive global culture: a peaceful prosperous planet with open trade and tolerance, a global culture of inclusion. Because Russia’s war on Ukraine demonstrates the bloody heartbroken stupid corrupt violent alternative to what I am proposing. I would prefer not to see "one, two, many Ukraines". Because if you are unable to live together than you would surely die together. The choice is yours.
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