Links to FREE Books & word of the day at the end of the post!
Kadyrov, Chechen Butcher, survives assassination attempt: for now… Give it few months (Spaetfolge…)
Telling them what they want to hear
versus
telling them the truth…
It is easy to attract “followers”: uninfluential people who will not be able to change things. You merely must tell them what they already believe, what they want to hear. It is much tougher to attract intelligent hard working disciplined people capable of effecting real change. This is why elites exist, not because of genetics but because of experiences, attitudes, and beliefs. This is why hereditary power often ultimately fails, why communist conspiratorial elite vanguard parties can seize power (and then mal—govern) and is also why a disciplined coherent minority like the literal nazis can run roughshod over a much larger populace they contemptuously call “sheep”: for a while at least. This is why Putin could come into power, govern for a time, and is also why he is ultimately doomed: he outlived his best days of murder and thievery and now is reduced to a drooling semi-coherent shell of his former self.
It is easy to attract lazy, undisciplined, unintelligent people: all you must do is tell them what they want to hear: it really IS someone else’s fault! You really are racially superior! You deserve riches! It’s all part of god’s plan!
But that’s the exact opposite of effective intelligence analysis. Good analysis is based on facts, makes educated guesses as to intentions, and lists a range of outcomes and assigns each a rough probability. In other words, it may tell people what they don’t already believe, what they don’t want to hear. This is exactly the reason Putin’s intelligence analysis proved catastrophically wrong. Whether you call it “stove piped” “compartmentalized” “echo chamber” or “vertical powers” the problems Putin created and faces are:
you can’t tell the boss what he doesn’t want to hear and
everyone is lying.
This is a fundamental hindrance to effective intelligence analysis by any dictatorship which i part explains China’s desperate search for effective yet politically reliable quasi-democratic structures and indicia for regime legitimation. China’s intelligence analysis of the USA and NATO allies is fundamentally flawed, perhaps not so catastrophically as Russia’s, but nonetheless the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to believe its own propaganda, which is another intelligence error often made by democracies too. These are the reasons why intelligent analysis especially open source and open access can guide and out-maneuver more traditional structures.
Russia:
Sanctions start destroying Russia (1) video-shows-terrifying-russia-plane-loses-cabin-pressure-plane-dangerous
Sanctions start destroying Russia (2): Russian Cargo Plane Explodes During Pressure Test, Killing One
Open-Source Intelligence is Indispensable for Countering Threats
france-confirms-talks-with-ukraine-about-supplying-warplanes
Russians forced to fight with only small arms, few bullets, entrenching shovels.
Yes, the Russians are running out of munitions, specifically rockets, artillery shells.
No, China isn’t supplying Russia weapons or ammunition and shall not. Maybe, just maybe, you should not take the Russians at face value when they try to provoke the USA into conflict with China hm? Amateur hour ended about year ago at latest, really more like 9 years ago.
Unfortunately, Beijing’s peace proposals are entirely unrealistic.
desperate-russian-forces-are-adding-80-year-old-naval-guns-to-70-year-old-armored-tractors
Use of Bitcoin for Terrorist Financing (in Russian)
I’m an ecumenical kinda fella…
В Новосибирске подожгли центр, где собирают гуманитарную помощь участникам СВО
More Car Bombs: Blood purge & counter-purge continues
https://smoldaily.ru/v-mchs-prokommentirovali-pozhar-s-uchastiem-pochty-rossii
https://smoldaily.ru/v-smolenske-vspyhnula-mashina-pochty-rossii
lnr-pogib-podorvavshijsya-na-neustanovlennom-predmete
tying up “loose ends”: dead men tell no tales. That’s how Russia rolls.
russian-commander-floats-civil-war-he-slams-putin
The one field of intelligence where closed source is better is cryptology. You may notice I don’t much talk about codes and ciphers here other than to tell you to compare notes carefully. Even though a closed source cipher shop is better, analysts are better to then compare their insights. E.g. I recently read an Israeli decrypt. Oh, it was accurate all right! But I am not saying how I read it, why I read it, why it is in your own interest that I read your mail lest one of us makes a mistake. This is the fundamental difference between intelligence among allies as opposed to intelligence during war time between enemies. Even opponents share intelligence and I would for example be unsurprised to see China sharing information about Arina (infra). Why? Because somewhere out there is 小红。 Opponents are not enemies: the difference between an opponent and an enemy is the subtle difference between a person who wants to eat your lunch as opposed to a person who wants to poison your lunch. The fella who wants to eat your lunch can’t poison it, and the fella who wants to poison your lunch can’t eat it…
FREE BOOKS TODAY & TOMORROW
A NEW COLD WAR: GLOBAL STRATEGY
I wrote and published this prior to the war. I am working on a new edition. Feedback or ideas welcome eric.engle@yahoo.com
CONTRACT LAW DIGITAL FLASH CARDS
Fiction, honest…
After Russians killed both her parents she “disappeared”.
Word of the day: Musik, la musique, die Musik, la musica, музыка, 音乐 yin1 yue4
Q.v.: Schraegmusik...