Security Dilemma: my deterrence looks like your aggression...
Mother? We need to talk! Isaw 9 flying dragons in the sky! 彩虹
Free eBooks at the end of the post, word of the day RAINBOW, Regenbogen, arc en ciel, радуга, 彩虹(cai3hong2)
Non. Je ne regrette rien. Cours Noirs, Suffren, Mali+PouvoirDoux, Informatique, Chine
这些犯罪我做了,我不后悔。下一个,您能还猜猜,毛领导。
Word of the day: The Cousins
Next Time: The iN LAWs until then…
Mother? We need to talk!
我回忆我是谁 I remember who I was je me souviens de moi ich erinnere mich
Back from the ded with the BUK of the Dead…
looking for RIGHTEOUS JUSTICE 义
柠檬 ning2meng2 lemon 宁梦 ning2meng4 peace dream (按柠梦想)
回
this is hui2. It is a picture of a whirlpool seen from above as the idea of RETURN RECURRENCE.
hui2yi4回忆return memories. The second tone sounds like a question hui?yi1 return?memories! Fourth tone sounds like a loud command.
义
Righteous, Justice. Looks like a skull and crossbones. One guess why? X marks the Spot. Revolutionary justice. 而且,我善良! 義是义的繁体字。
听! 回忆被踢馆的声音!“Listen! Remember the ringing sound of the training hall!”
我略懂 爱情奥义 “My strategem, Love, is mysterious and righteous.”
TARGET ENEMY COMMAND STRUCTURE 义奥秘
SOW CONFLICT WITHIN THE ENEMY’S RANKS ?
LEARN TO READ 知某数, 识某文 【揭秘密码 Codes & Ciphers】
EAT CRAYONS 别吃这个东西
“要想练就绝世武功” ="I want to practice the most exceptional martial art."
除暴安良 “Get rid of the cruel and bring peace to good people” 义
陟罚臧否。
bloodthirsty-leopard-mauls-lawyers I warned you I am vicious.
https://www.metaculus.com/
HISTORIES MYSTERIES, SOMETIMES SOLVED:
"‘Buttressing these hard-power elements were soft-power signifiers: coinage, artwork, splendid livery,’ not to mention exotic food delicacies.”
RUSSIA
“The state will take revenge! The Duma’s Representatives determine how to punish “traitors’”
“The Duma’s Representatives Demand BLOOD”
“How the Jews got their own State: Part 2, First World War & the Balfour Declaration”:
Leonid is not merely hoping to get support from Jews and Israelis for Russia. He is also pre-positioning himself to manage the formation of new States which will Rise Up after the fall of the Putin regime. You should support him in that second endeavour: Power and compassion. You aren’t going to get a better interlocutor.
Rheinmetall-in-talks-to-supply-ukraine-with-panther-battle-tanks
Elon Musk admits blocking starlink internet to Ukraine. Someone needs to figure out who the bad guys are.
Sporadic fighting among Russian forces in Ukraine (Wagner, Patriot, Enyot, CA, Chechens, Syrians, DPR/DNR, Mobiks, Kontraktniy, Spetznaz, Rosgvardia, OMON) fighting over weapons, supplies, and missions is already occurring and will eventually lead to a second Russian civil war.
Strelkov (Girkin) Claims Putin Preparing to Flee: I don’t believe a word of it. But what if I’m wrong? Then what? You Must get good at contingency planning.
U.S.-explores-working-with-India-to-increase-economic-competition-against-China
Iran launches drone strikes from Syria into Galilee
Suppose Putin has cancer and dies from that: then what? What happens next?
CHINA
“A strong country must have a strong military, military power secures national security!” This is a good current video on China’s air force (hard power). It is in Chinese, which also makes it a good language exercise.
ANALYSIS:
Of course, China will view this as 'deterring the USA’ and the USA will interpret it as ‘Chinese aggression’.
People are not only self-interested, even greedy,
we are also fearful.
BUT WE WANT TO BE SO MUCH BETTER.
This fact that all people aspire to be greater than our basic instinctive desires for survival is why despite our vices we can and do attain things no other species on this planet can.
China likewise views USA freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) as provocations, political stunts intended to poke the panda, while the USA claiming (correctly) it is merely exercising its rights under international law (freedom of the seas) .
During peace one ought to give the other guy the benefit of the g*d damned doubt.
Mao Ning, venerating her ancestors for our benefit:
Deputy Director Ning (宁)is wearing a Western peace symbol, the crown of laurel, and is reaching out. She figures if the USA and China can improve relations maybe China can help bring peace to Ukraine. Win-win outcomes are possible for US-Chinese relations: “Politics is the art of the possible”. Moreover, politics is the alternative to war. Clausewitz was wrong, as German history all too bloodily proves: war is not the continuation of politics by other means, it is the failure of politics, the break-down of human relations. Killing people is fundamentally different from casting votes or going to a diplomatic conference to talk out our grievances. “Revolution is not a dinner party.” 毛泽东
US-China deterrence-FONOPs tensions are partly mutual misunderstanding: China/Marxists view all political interactions as conflicted and Leninist conspiratorial elite vanguard parties love the idea of powerful secret plots, false flags, and all kinds of dysfunctional nonsense which crippled the USSR and Maoist China. So, China wrongly sees FONOPS as about stress testing Chinese defenses to anger the Chinese masses and foment protests, coup, and revolution; to set the Chinese people into domestic conflicts against each other. The U.S. Navy doesn’t do FONOPs to foment a colour revolution. It does them to suppress piracy, maintain navigation rights, as part of rescue and humanitarian relief operations, and for training, as well as for diplomatic purposes. China can and does most all of that too.
Liberalism tries to channel our war-like tendencies, our will-to-power into productive economic activity to give constructive outlets for ability (能力)to turn power (力量) into ability (能力)。I’m an authoritarian generally but liberalism is right: most of you are more greedy than war-like. This is why soft power is often, even usually, more effective than hard power.
EXAMPLES OF CHINESE SOFT-POWER IN ACTION
Chinese nationaly hymn “Rise Up!” 起来
Ours is the side that Hates slavery.
These particular heroes are going to Turkiye and Syria to try to save lives, restore order, to help ordinary people to live better.
The interesting thing about soft power is it’s basically impossible to oppose. Suppose I were a China hater, or at least an enemy of the Chinese Communist Party. What could I, whether as an individual, some millionaire, or an entire government, do to credibly oppose these examples of Chinese aid? Probably nothing! Soft power has definite uses and even advantages over hard power - especially for states which have less relative hard power!
Maybe this way? Which makes China look better? Humanitarian relief like this?
Or … “no limits” “no matter what” Partner undead Vampire Putin?
Hint: No one likes war criminals.
Or this way? China using soft power has enjoyed no state funerals for national heroes. Russia in the past year has had plenty of state funerals for national heroes thanks to its exercise of hard power. Which country do you think is better off, more powerful, Russia (soon to be rump-state) or China (still growing, doomsayers to the contrary)?
COGNITIVE BIASES AND POWER (力量和想法错误)
Here’s a China-hosted talk-shop about Ukraine:
Briefly, the Chinese leadership believed Putin. It was convenient and comfortable he was telling them what they wanted to hear. The USA does not tell Beijing what it wants to hear. People have this disturbing tendency to believe what is comfortable, convenient, easy, that which is consistent with their existing beliefs and already lived experiences. This is a cognitive bias which seems universal and which each of us must grapple with and try to overcome in order to live better. It is exactly when things seem convenient, easy, to confirm what you would like to be the case where you should be most skeptical. An effective trap always has attractive bait!
People may lie but when they do they lose credibility, thus garner no trust, no emulation, no adherents. The truth always comes out in the end, and then what?
Departing + Army Leader + Sign =
Signalling deterrent intentions with soft power humanitarian aid.
出师表 (出发,表示):
And here’s China’s view on human rights
Briefly: human rights in China are political claims to material objects rather than legally enforceable freedoms from state power. I wrote an essay about this topic: Human Rights According to Marxism
which I later developed into a book (free preview):
Here’s the video above, but in Russian.
(with English subtitles)
Mencius and his Mother (also with English subtitles)
You should learn about Confucis, Mencius, Mohism, Legalism, Socialist Legal Thought the alternative to law and politics is really painful and ugly. You don’t want to go there, but if you must: follow me.
CULTURAL DIPLOMACY AS SOFT POWER
The above short video is about the Chinese city wall in Xi An, the former western capital better known historically as Chang An (see also the historical spy movie: Longest Day in Chang An). This video is obviously also about China’s great firewall and the idea that China is a mighty fortress, so it may indicate an inward defensive turn in Chinese foreign policy. Most definite however is Xi Jinping’s endorsement of traditional Chinese costuming (Hanfu 汉服)he says very directly “more and more people are wearing Tang dynasty Chinese clothing (“唐装还是华服”)as a rhetorical question with implicit obvious answer. Maoist China would have called this reactionary regurgitation of feudal class society, though in fact the Tang dynasty is considered one of China’s best eras. Those who claim to want reform in China ought notice much reform has in fact occurred just by comparing Maoist China with contemporary China.
Xi Jinping’s predestined love of culture 文化
If you don’t give your counterpart constructive outlets for their capacity they will have no choice but seek destructive outlets.
Chinese Pre-History Dramaticized: Shen Nong invents the fork-spade and hoe. Yu the great masters the flood waters. The rise of agriculture in China. Implies China increasingly concerned about food security, in my opinion unnecessarily (I am not an alarmist)
Is helping ordinary people in the face of a horrible natural disaster somehow wrongful?
Is being a decent person, a good example, so difficult?
In war and disaster crippled people are inevitable. The following video represents Chinese culture coming to terms with other expressions of sexuality, which are much more overt in other cultures, and also addressing the problems injured people face. This video is shockingly explicit by Chinese standards, but then again crippled people live shocked lives. Let’s hope everyone finds love and family. This video also shows cultural change and could easily be compared with portrayals (more accurately non-portrayals) of sexuality in Maoist China, which was even more conservative than imperial China in this regard.
While we can and should see this video as addressing crippled people in Ukraine, Turkiye, Syria we should also see it as China preparing its people for the potential problems which follow war. This is ominous, but its vocabulary choices are especially interesting (English subtitles) e.g. “erotic words” (subtitle) literally “words of tigers and wolves” 虎狼之词 in Chinese. This does remind one of so-called wolf-warrior diplomacy, China’s reaction against Trump’s extremism.
Let’s hope people learn from the bad examples of Russia.
https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2023/02/09/introducing-a-new-podcast-about-russias-future
ANALYSIS: PANZERGRENADIERTAKTIK
Well trained properly employed tank hunter-killer teams armed with Javelin/NLAW/Panzerfaust/Milan/TOW: Mechanized infantry hunter-killer teams WELL TRAINED and USED PROPERLY would be able to win against Russian tanks at least in forested and broken terrain. But we don't know how well trained Ukrainian tank hunting teams are, or whether they will be used with correct tactics, so we ALSO want tanks that don't do the lollipop.
What I advise will end the war most quickly and thus with the least bloodshed.
Deep raids by highly mobile well trained and properly armed troops can win against superior numbers. Read up about the long range desert patrol or maybe the Long Range Reconnaissance Patrols in Vietnam (LRRP). Then look at the Egyptian tank-hunter teams in 1973: they ONLY had saggars and RPG7, no "blow a hole in your tank's roof" fancies, yet Egyptian infantry anti-tank teams mauled the Israelis. 1940+1973=2023. Mount tank killing teams in Wiesels and Marders, outmaneuver Ivan and kill him with ATGM (Anti-Tank Guided Missiles). This requires highly motivated troops well trained and properly equipped. Ukrainians tough and well motivated, likely not yet sufficiently trained in Panzergrenadiertaktik for mechanized tank hunting battalion level operations. Might be ready at platoon level!
Because if you break into someone else’s house and they tell you to leave but you don’t what else could you expect?
China’s best move? Position itself for Ukraine’s ultimate victory and reconstruction. How China acts will be noted in Kyiv, Washington, Ottawa, London, Paris and Berlin as well. 匈奴一直住在北方!
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION TO PREVENT AND PUNISH GRAVE CRIMES AGAINST THE PERSON OF PRIVATE LAW ACTORS
Many prostitution and pedophilia networks have been disrupted in the past two weeks. This continues an intensifying trend of the past year or even two years. This sort of quiet police work is by nature transnational and thus requires international cooperation.
Chinese women who were prostituted in the USA will be treated as victims rather than as criminals.
Because these prosecutions are currently not linked to intelligence or counter-intelligence operations I’m not to include links to the various busts which have happened publically in Europe as well as in North America and in private in East Asia so as not to shame the victims’ families. During the past two years international criminal conspiracies to misuse and abuse women and children have been consistently repeatedly smashed and I wish to personally thank China for their cooperation, which moreover was lent despite unwise foreign political pressure in other areas of foreign policy concern. 感谢您们辛苦了。我希望未来会更好。
I am not translating this. It would make me cry.
“There is a most beautiful flower in the world”
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Sleepwalking To War? Stephen Walt Is Wrong. Here’s Why
Niall Ferguson Is Wrong about Empire, Ukraine, and a New Cold War: Here’s Why
This is what 20+ years of failed U.S. foreign policy leads to. “The corrective recapitulation of the primary family unit”
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