Word of the day:
Expose, Reveal, abdecken, divulger, paljastada, раскрывать,揭底
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This issue is packed with analysis and so I will update it during the week.
Edits will be to make the ideas smoother, not to add or change reported facts but to edit broad outlines of ideas. Topics Treated are Operational Security, Deception and Surprise, New Global Security Order and Contemporary U.S. Strategic Thinking and French Strategic Autonomy. As well as the usual “Russia is losing” and “China is lol” reportage. It was a very busy week in theory. In practice more Ukrainians died so corrupt murdering war criminal can luxury yacht. Reports on that ugly inconvenient truth are vital. The strategic ideas are complex and inter-related.
AMERICANS ARE BLABBERMOUTHS
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/us/politics/leaked-documents-russia-ukraine-war
leaked-documents-detail-dire-assessments-of-ukrainian-army-reports
Operational Security: “Those who talk don’t know, those who know don’t talk”. Operational Security or, for the slow of brain, operational secrecy is the idea that you don’t want enemies to read your mail and want to make your friends do their homework before they read your mail to keep them on their toes and keep their respect of your own service. But America is an over-fed under-exercised nation of everyone’s a winner and an open society to boot with a side of heroin addiction courtesy of 鸦片战争,第二集. Will you have extra blab with that mouth? Murricans have no sense of operational security as seen in failure after failure such as OMB hack, wikileaks, and oh god Washington shit a brick Yet Again.
Intelligence services have asymmetric capabilities depending on their culture, demography, geography, history, class structure, and ideology. So, even though the USA has shitty horrible amateurish OPSEC, questionable counter-intelligence, and sucks monkeyballs at information warfare, U.S. electronic and signals intelligence are quite good. As for the code-breaking section, well, here we are. Some of us are better at “remedial reading” … in lots of languages. Others are among us are… 文盲. By the way this 亡 is the picture of a coffin (lid on top, convenient handle, box on the bottom. So … let’s all figure out just wha盲 means before it’s too late, hm?
Keep secrets like someone’s life depends on it. Take this same attitude toward your diplomatic actions, your soldiering, your code breaking, or whatever You are doing to make Our world a better safer place. Then you will have a life which is longer and happier because of professional fulfillment and even career success. That secret might have been bought in blood, and divulging it might get someone killed.
Because intelligence services are asymmetric, dissimilar, unequally matched, in any network of alliances different services will be better at certain things. For example, even if you think Israel is “a shitty little country” their assassination squads are among the world’s best. Understanding one’s own weaknesses and compensating the weaknesses of our allies with our own strengths are what allies do. I don’t expect the Dutch to launch a global satellite network. I do expect — and this is based on experience — the Maréchaussée to thoroughly infiltrate and document Russian intelligence services, particularly in regard to computers, but elsewhere too because they have proven in past practice to have done so. Attribution isn’t merely about figuring out what unpleasantry your counterpart did to you its also about giving credit where credit is due, which in turn improves alliance coordination.
My point is: don’t tell Washington secrets you would be uncomfortable seeing revealed. This is why intelligence services sometimes communicate indirectly, whether by proxy of some third party country, a courier, or a “cut out”. Then you and your counterpart get timely accurate information despite any weaknesses in your own org or theirs. Nothing wrong with some Indonesian telling some Dumburrican the ugly truth, and then a Dutchy drops a hint, for the obvious example of how confirmed data can be safely shared.
I’m sorry the USA really is a bunch of blabbermouths. Hopefully satellites, sealift, and “boots on the ground” can compensate.
LERN DEUTSCH!
Sorting out Disinformation:
In an earlier post I gave some ideas about how to party purge, as opposed to blood purge, an organization of unreliables, infiltrators, saboteurs, wreckers. Call them what you will; our side doesn’t blood purge because “What if I am wrong” and “dead men tell no tales”: a dead source is useless, can’t confirm or deny anything ever.
Just like we sort organizations and purge certain members, we can and must sort through news and reports to sift out true facts from mistakes, omissions, and lies to try to get a complete picture as opposed to half truths. Mathematically speaking these are the same problem; sorting (trier) a binary tree.
For example: from the latest murrican “leak” we are told that: months ago Ukraine was running out of ammunition for air defense, and would have run out by now. That much we can take for true. However, that only leads to more questions: did Ukraine get resupply? If so, how much? If not why not? Is the publication of these facts disinformation, intended to deceive, distract, mislead? Raising and fostering these lines of inquiry can preserve at least relative secrecy, and thus enable relative surprise.
Deception operations and surprise are thus related.
Absolute and Relative Surprise
We may think of surprise as absolute, or relative. For examples, suppose France were to launch a nuclear attack against the USA. After you get done laughing you must admit that would be an example of absolute surprise. Attaining absolute surprise is very rare. It may result from a secret technological innovation. Suppose China had obtained a time projector, enabling it to reliably and consistently send information or things into the past or future (or some combination thereof)? That would enable absolute surprise. It is in fact possible to send objects and people into the future, simply by accelerating the object to high velocity in a low or no gravity environment. But how useful would it be to arrive on tomorrows battlefield with today’s weapons? Not much! To present, we have no methods to send things or information backward in time. In contrast, distorting light, reflecting light, and absorbing light, are all technologies which, when attained may give one side a combat edge, enabling absolute surprise. At least some of those technologies were attained already 20 years ago.
Relative surprise
Relative surprise is much more frequent. For example, the nazis in the 1940s knew at some point the allies would land soldiers on the continent of Europe. But where, and when? This they could not know and in fact relative surprise was attained on 6 June 1944 when the allies landed at Normandy.
Your objective should be to secure at least relative surprise.
Bakhmut, Shell Hunger, Leaks, and Disinformation
So the blabby leaky NOPSEC murricans, what a shocker, once again shit out the truth with little or no regard as to who may pay for that with their lives. How do you play defense when your own side is … tardy, playing war like drunken monkeys armed with machine guns?
Wait. AMI talking about our side … or the Russians?
Look, I hate lies, but I hate killing even more. When your own side is … tardy as in irresponsible with the truth far be it from ME to blame [insert provocation here]! It would be a shame, a crying shame, if a lot of truth was mixed up with some lies to protect the innocent who never wanted to play this stupid game in the first place.
Ukraine is running out of air defense munitions. The alternative to providing them is Russian’s on Your border. The Russian army totally isn’t a horde of lying rapists, robbers, and murderers, I swear. There is no way they would ever take your relative into a basement, rape her, and then burn the building to the ground. After all, she’s only 12. So yeah, my side.. sucks. The other side … blows. You have choices. 12 year old Ukrainians don’t.
I think you know what to do.
After all: They hate us anyway. Let’s give them some good reasons.
RUSSIA
Explosion occurs near aircraft plant of Russian Defence Ministry in Voronezh
https://nypost.com/2023/04/08/ukraine-to-export-electricity-as-russia-fails-to-destroy-grid/
leaked-documents-detail-dire-assessments-of-ukrainian-army-reports
gulf-tensions-us-submarine-iran
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89480
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65213426
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/huge-swathes-vladimir-putins-russia-29661669
https://www.businessinsider.com/video-putin-speech-met-with-awkward-silence-and-no-applause-2023-4
Give your eyes a rest & work on your English listening comprehension (audio & text) Russian-artillery-shortage
ukraine-recycles-unexploded-bombs-amid-serious-ammunition-shortages
Putin has only one path to victory. And it involves massive deliveries of Chinese arms and ammunition.
Somehow, I suspect he will not get them。
)
china-russia-not-provided-assistance
“Relaxed entry rules now make it easier than ever to visit Mongolia. A shiny new airport has just opened as well as the epic new Chinggis Khaan National Museum. There’s even a glut of cool desert-based music festivals.” CNN What can I say? I’m all about back-doors to protect people and to make new friends! Visa Free list
CONTEMPORARY U.S. STRATEGIC THOUGHT, NATO, CHINA, AND THE NEW GLOBAL SECURITY ORDER
I have already pointed out this war will end in Ukrainian victory. It will also very likely end with the disaggregation of the Russian federation. It will also probably end the Russian UN Security Council veto. It will also end with a Marshall plan, and since Europe will benefit from Russian oil and Ukrainian grain we can expect peace-ridden prosperous Europe to contribute to rebuilding its trade partners, which incidentally is consistent with China’s desire to build common global prosperity.
Both Japan and Germany have long wanted a UN Sec. C. veto. That outcome is unlikely. Countries with the veto will not want to dilute their veto. Europe already has 2 nuclear armed powers and UN Sec. C. vetoes. A better approach after Russia’s expulsion from the UN Sec. C. would be to strengthen the powers of the General Assembly. These are productive avenues for Chinese diplomacy and thought, but which China is currently not pursuing. China already knows Putin will lose. China definitely wants a new global security order. Well, if you don’t ask you can’t get. If one basement dwelling neckbeard named me can come up with better ideas for Chinese diplomacy then Mao Ning — hei, is she single?
CURRENT U.S. STRATEGIC THINKING
Current U.S. strategies are in flux! And the specific poles are
liberal internationalism (Clintonista’s position: hint, it failed)
hegemonic stability theory (my position)
offshore balancing (Mearsheimer, maybe Walt too; the USA isn’t cynical or coherent enough and British balancing was bloody and ultimately failed catastrophically, at least three times (Napoleonic wars, WWI, Hitler)
isolationism - would be great if there were no nukes, jet planes, and rockets, no longer possible as a U.S. foreign policy, as 2 world wars have shown.
Each of these have sub-variants.
Basically the reason for this "flux" is the failure of liberal internationalism, specifically the joint failure of 1) neo-con regime change strategy AND 2) liberal international institutionalism. I still argue for hegemonic dominance institutionalism(!) which is NOT the trend or popular. The leading theories currently are off-shore balancing, whether offensive, or defensive, but I disfavor that: balancing regimes are inherently unstable and war-prone.
You can and should google all of those terms. It’s called an intelligence service, not a box full of stupid. Take the initiative, that’s basic leadership.
Currently the off-shore balancers (who are wrong!) are leading, but they are less wrong than the neo isolationists and even less wrong than the liberal internationalists. But hegemonic dominance is the way to go, which will result in a military containment of China, the defederalization of Russia and the Mid-East facing various "Abraham Accords" some of which will favore USA others will favor China but in the end China will be militarily -- not economically! -- contained. Since there is an ongoing war and risk of another war (Taiwan) expect lots of disinformation and people like me playing their cards close.
Free trade + Open Investment + Deterrence + Collective Security + Human Rights + Functionalist Institutionalism = World Peace
After this stupid pointless war ends we shall need Leonid Mlechin to help with reconstruction.
French Strategic Autonomy
emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview
France, predictably and comprehensibly, wants Europe to be strategically autonomous. In one respect, it already is, since there is little doubt France makes her own decisions, including the decision to join the NATO alliance and European Union. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely “Europe” could be “autonomous”. This isn’t because of arms or armies or even wealth and thankfully its not due to history or ideology. There is a broad transatlantic consensus around core governance principles namely: democracy, rule of law, legally enforceable individual rights, including political rights such as free speech and democratic assembly, as well as other individual rights such as the free exercise of religion. Common values explain and justify the Atlantic alliance. Ideology is a key factor driving state-to-state political relations and among non-state actors too.
However, despite Europeans ability to get beyond the horrible past of war after war and rally around common values the security and even foreign policy interests of European countries are diverse and not easily united into a common foreign and security policy or common defence policy. War powers are core powers and no power readily pools them if such pooling be surrender. To make it clearer: Eastern Europe is faced with the fact of being on the border of recalcitrant Russia. Russia no longer shares some of the above common values, instead preferring to elaborate its own “russkiy mir”: were it other than crime as government, lies and murder it might have attracted more tolerance for its variations on Western liberalism. Instead the party of thieves and liars which is united Russia has proven itself to be a bunch of war criminals and their enablers. Consequently Eastern Europe has every reason to pursue something other than an EU from Lisbon to Vladivostok. Unfortunately for Russia, that French vision is, at least so long as the war criminals are in charge in Moscow, impossible. Eastern Europe will resolutely oppose Moscow. Though China will not arm Moscow the Chinese government, for now at least, remains willing to support Russia in every other way. This will prove to be a foolish strategy for China. One reason is: since China supports Moscow, Eastern Europe will oppose China. Consequently, Macron’s hoped for European strategic autonomy AND his hoped for EU from Lisbon to Vladivostok is impossible, at least for now.
Even if Eastern Europe were no so compelled by Russia it would be compelled by Germany to economic policies which might disfavor the French goal of European strategic autonomy.
What about Germany then? Until 1990 the logic of the EC was to harness German economic power and link that to French military and diplomatic power. Since 1990 Germany has increasingly sought to be more or less a giant Switzerland. German foreign policy has generally been driven exclusively by domestic German economic considerations. Germany has shunned military aspects of foreign policy. But Germany, if all it aspires to, is continental economic dominance has no need for French military power or even much need for French diplomatic capacity. France needs Germany more than Germany needs France because French ambitions are global whereas German ambitions are much less so. France is a global power with global power projection capacity, a UN veto, nuclear submarines, and aircraft carriers. Germany has none of that but with a pragmatic limited foreign policy doesn’t need or even want that.
I have suggested China consider carefully how it wishes to help rebuild and reconfigure the post Putin world. France must do likewise. I predict the security policies of France and the USA will continue to converge. I also predict French and U.S. economic policies will not diverge. I do not predict a Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis. I do predict further and deepening Sino-German economic cooperation, trade, and investment. They are both party political states, with hierarchical culture, and recent experiences with party dictatorship and all the curses that can bring to the nation. We ought tolerate if not encourage Sino-German trade and investment because German liberalism and German governance concepts are likelier to prevail in China than Maoist dictatorship to storm through Germany. Fascism was a historical particularity and will not recur, strategic autonomy or not.
So, whether because of Moscow, Berlin, or Warsaw, Europe will in the end fail to attain strategic autonomy, but that does not truly matter since France already has such autonomy.
Whether and how to attain European strategic autonomy is thus not a productive line of inquiry to resolve the questions of governance in the post-Putin world. But it bears mentioning and considering so we can help China to stab Russia in the back.
Marxism is unfortunately a failure as a theory of international relations
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Number of pages: 74 Posted: 27 May 2021