💀stimating Russian Casual⚰️ies🕮

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Dec 13, 2024

One Less Problem on Earth.

“A senior Russian cruise missile engineer was shot dead near Moscow, with Ukrainian media reporting he was assassinated by Ukraine’s intelligence."

Mikhail Shatsky was found dead in the Kuzminki forest park in the suburb of Kotelniki southeast of Moscow this week.” https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/12/12/top-russian-cruise-missile-engineer-gunned-down-near-moscow-reports-a87316

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CHINESE VOCABULARY COGNATES

Russia is Doomed, its War is Unsustainable.

Russia is doomed to defeat in Ukraine because it is losing more lives per day than it recruits, cannot replace its casualties and its economy is being systematically ruined by Ukraine. This is without mentioning in detail lack of training and low quality leadership that characterize the Russian army. The Russian military is facing significant challenges in Ukraine, with casualty rates outpacing recruitment efforts and the economy showing signs of strain. Russia's forces have suffered staggering losses in Ukraine, with estimates ranging from 600,000 to 750,000 total casualties since the invasion began in 2022 [4][9]. Recent months have seen particularly high casualty rates, with an estimated 45,690 casualties in November 2024 [3], approximately 41,980 casualties in October 2024 [10], and about 38,130 casualties in September 2024 [10].

In contrast, Russia's recruitment efforts are falling short of replacing these losses. Recent estimates suggest Russia is only able to recruit between 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers per month [7][8]. This recruitment rate is insufficient to offset the casualties, which have reached up to 1,500 per day in some periods [4]. The Russian government has spent an estimated $200 billion on the war effort [9], straining its resources.

The combination of high military spending, Western sanctions, and declining export revenues has led to a weakening ruble and rising import prices [2]. Inflation has reached 9.7% annualized in October 2024 [2], and interest rates have been raised to 21% in November 2024, the highest in 25 years [2]. Economic growth has slowed significantly since early 2024 [2], and unemployment is at a historical low of 2.3%, creating acute labor shortages [2].

The situation appears unsustainable for Russia in the long term. The high casualty rates are depleting its limited labor pool, while the economic pressures are making it increasingly difficult to finance the war effort. Unless there is a significant change in circumstances, Russia may struggle to maintain its current level of military operations in Ukraine while managing its deteriorating economic situation.

Citations: [1] https://kyivindependent.com/media-identifies-over-82-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-2/

[2] https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/the-russian-economy-at-a-turning-point

[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-5-2024

[4] https://www.legion.org/information-center/news/news/2024/october/pentagon-puts-russian-casualty-toll-in-ukraine-at-600000-after-new-monthly-peak [5] https://warontherocks.com/2024/08/russias-post-war-military-recruiting-strategy-emerges/

[6] https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/a-somber-outlook-for-the-russian-economy/ [7] https://nationalsecuritynews.com/2024/06/russia-is-recruiting-30000-soldiers-a-month-to-fight-in-ukraine/

[8] https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/11/13/desperate-for-new-army-recruits-russian-authorities-resort-to-planting-drugs-and-posting-fake-job-ads [9] https://kyivindependent.com/russia-has-spent-200-billion-on-full-scale-war-in-ukraine-suffered-700-000-casualties-austin-says/

[10] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-9-2024 [11] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43319

[12] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/world/europe/russia-troops-losses-ukraine.html [13] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yv75nydy3o

[14] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

Estimating Russian Casualties

It is logical to expect Russia to under-estimate and Ukraine to over-estimate Russian casualties. In contrast, British intelligence estimates are accurate. The brutal ugly reality of attritional war is it consists in killing and maiming as many enemy as possible. The latest figures indicate a staggering toll on Russian forces:

Total Casualties

Russian forces have incurred an estimated 700,000 total casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022[1]. This number includes killed, wounded, and missing personnel.

Breakdown of Casualties

Killed in Action (KIA)

The number of Russian troops killed is estimated to be between 120,000 and 198,000[6][7].

Wounded in Action (WIA)

Estimates suggest that between 170,000 and 550,000 Russian soldiers have been wounded[6][7].

Recent Trends

Russia set new records for average daily losses in recent months, with November 2024 seeing the highest monthly toll since the invasion began[7].
On November 28, 2024, Russia reportedly lost over 2,000 soldiers in a single day, a first in the conflict[7].
The UK Ministry of Defence reported that Russia incurred 45,680 casualties in November 2024 alone[7].

These high casualty rates are considered unsustainable, and Russia is likely to face significant challenges in replacing these losses, especially if Western support for Ukraine continues[9].

Citations:

[1] https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russia-hits-700000-casualties-in-ukraine-says-britain/

[2] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3891640-british-intelligence-assesses-russias-war-losses-in-ukraine.html

[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-9-2024

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

[5] https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sets-new-average-daily-losses-record-in-ukraine-uk-2024-12

[6] https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116768/documents/HHRG-118-ZS00-20240130-SD002.pdf

[7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yv75nydy3o

[8] https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/half-a-million-russian-combat-losses

[9] https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-will-struggle-to-replace-its-casualties-in-ukraine-isw-2024-12

[10] https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-faces-record-losses-since-war-began-1731159328.html

Based on the available intelligence estimates, there is no precise breakdown provided for Russian Wounded in Action (WIA) who are combat capable versus those who are permanently combat incapable. However, we can infer some information from the data:

Word of the Day:

Assassination. Sample sentence: “A Russian scumbag was successfully assassinated in Moscow.

* French: assassinat

* Spanish: asesinato

* German: Attentat or Ermordung (die)

* Estonian: mõrv

* Ukrainian: замах (zamakh) or вбивство (vbyvstvo)

* Russian: убийство (ubiystvo) or покушение (pokusheniye)

* Chinese: (àn shā) 暗杀

* French: "Un salaud russe a été assassiné avec succès à Moscou."

* Spanish: "Un desgraciado ruso fue asesinado con éxito en Moscú."

* German: "Ein russischer Abschaum wurde erfolgreich in Moskau ermordet."

* Estonian: "Moskvas tapeti edukalt üks venelane."

* Ukrainian: "У Москві вдало вбив одного російського негідника." (U Moskvi vdalo vbyv odnogo rosiys'koho nehidyka)

* Russian: "В Москве был успешно убит один российский подонок."

* Chinese: (Ànshā. Lìjù:“Yī míng èluósī ègùn zài mòsīkē bèi chénggōng ànshāle)

暗杀。例句：“一名俄罗斯恶棍在莫斯科被成功暗杀了。

Note: Please keep in mind that the translations are provided in a neutral and respectful manner, without promoting or glorifying violence or harm towards any individual or group.