Strategy: Russia, China, America and
Proxy Wars in Ukraine and Israel.
Putin greenlit Teheran’s proxy attack on Israel using Hamas, duh. Putin figures if Israel and the USA are distracted in Israel they might forget all about Ukraine. He is mistaken about that. Rather than splitting the USA, Israel, or Ukraine apart Putin’s proxy war via Iran is driving them closer together.
It is easy to get into a war: it is NOT easy to get out of a war! Putin is fucked! So is Hamas.
People who cannot imagine the collapse of the corrupt kleptocrats in Moscow fail to notice the so-called "Russian" federation is a corrupt incompetent mafia state governing about 20 odd other occupied nations. Maybe, just maybe, the subject nations occupied by Russia are sick of paying all the taxes AND being the cannon fodder, hmm? So, “taking” Moscow is possible. Simply, foment rebellion in “Russia” i.e. the nations occupied and subjugated by “Russia” like Yakutia, Nenets, Buryatia etc. etc. and voila! Russia, deprived of cannon fodder and obligated to try to resubjugate the regions will simply collapse.
To see the impending collapse of the “Russian” Federation even more clearly just imagine China having a giant case of nahmensia, declaring humanitarian intervention in a state of ingerence, and then moving back in to properly govern the parts of Russia that used to be China until Russia conquered them. Chinese intervention in Kamachatka, Siberia, Buryatia will defnitely lead to the collapse of the war criminal kleptocrat mafia misruling Moscow just like rebellion in those regions end elsewhere will.
Chinese intervention to liberate parts of “Russia” stolen from China during the century of humiliation will also will tie-down China: Occupying a new territory is not easy. China, busied governing the Amur valley and Vladivostok, will be unable to engage in Taiwan adventurism. Furthermore, China would be even more easily militarily isolated. Most importantly? China basically just wants to trade peacefully and grow stronger, rather than use incompetent corrupt crazy violent proxies like Teheran and Moscow to attack the west. Easily managed.
Israel Palestina 萬萬
Once upon a time two Scorpions were trapped in one bottle…
Israel: Analysis and Predictions
Just so we all understand, the Jewish people actually living in Israel are going to do whatever they want, and then pretend their various actions were somehow compelled, constrained, persuaded by third parties. And the people in the USA, whether they are Jews or not, in the overwhelming majority, will support whatever the Jewish people in Israel do. That is simply factually accurate. This is the constraint I and any other rational agent operates within. So no, I don’t promise you stuffed puppies, unicorns, the Mahdi, Second Coming, the Buddha reincarnated or any other happy hopeful but unlikely or outright untrue. I just promise you accurate predictions and advice about how to make the blood stained slide into Putin’s new world disorder as brief and bloodless as possible so we can all get back to global peace and prosperity through trade and investment.
This all ends with Vladimir Pizdets dead or in jail, and probably ends with China occupying Kamchatka and maybe much of Siberia. 解放西伯利亚!Mad Vlad’s kill count is not so high as his spiritual advisor Adolph Hitler, yet, but not for want of trying.
Note: Russia will split along national lines, thus Nenets, Buryatya, Dagestan, Ingushtan, Chechnya, Mari, Komi, Karelia et ceter, there will about about 12+ new States which will succeed the so-called “Russian” Federation.
Probably a Palestinian edition of Mohandas Gandhi and/or Martin Luther King Jr. will emerge, someone charismatic calling for peace and brotherhood. I did not specialize in that region because the problems seemed intractable, and there were others much better qualified and more interested. Good luck.
Ukraine: Surprise!
Russia’s Landing Craft Are Slow And Boring. They’re Also Top Targets. (forbes.com)
Surprise! Putin Humiliated by One of Russia's Closest Allies (newsweek.com)
https://news.yahoo.com/energy-minister-says-ukraine-may-032352911.html
Ukraine’s Getting Nearly 200 Leopard 1A5 Tanks. Now It Needs New Tank Tactics. (forbes.com)
Predictions:
Ukraine will win. China and the USA will not decouple. Putin will die or be jailed. The so-called “Russian” Federation will break apart and the nations Rus subjugated will win their independance.
What to expect when Biden and Xi Jinping meet in California - BBC News
Word of the day:
negotiate: French - négocier, Spanish - negociar, German - verhandeln, Ukrainian - переговорювати, Russian - вести переговоры, Chinese - 谈判 (tan pan)
Arab and Muslim leaders demand immediate end to Gaza war | Reuters
Presidential Summit on Wed.!
Next Wednesday Xi Jinping meets Biden. This means it is very likely Li Keqiang simply had a bad heart - for there has been no further unexplained death of prominent or even minor Chinese officials, so far as I have seen, including within the Communist Youth Leage of China. Furthermore, Xi Jinping would never risk foreign travel were his domestic rule under any danger resulting from a blood purge. Hopefully they will figure out how Chinese multilateral diplomatic initatives like Belt and Road, AIIB, and peace plans can be harmonized with the U.S. led rules based international order. As anyone can plainly see the supposed alternatives proposed by Russia in Ukraine and Iran in Israel are horrible. This means Russia, then Iran, will both be increasingly isolated, because it is entirely evident that the USA and China have much more in common than in conflict, as elucidated here in many, many prior posts.
The Grand Anti-Fascist Coalition:
Friendly Reminder: Putin is a national socialist in other words he is a fascist. He hates Jews, hates Homosexuals, and uses Moslems to kill Jews. Putin is exterminating Slavs in Ukraine. You know what to do. 解放西伯利亚!
THE RICK WILSON EXPERIENCE
How to Run For County Central Committee in Ohio (1080) - YouTube
Notes on Method:
If you wish to be an effective accurate analyst of international relations you need to know global geography thoroughly. Geography shapes and constrains but does not compel patterns in human relations, whether at the state or sub-state level. You also need to know world history, the more the better, for patterns recur. You also need a good grasp of economics both macro and micro, including accounting. A good grasp of global religions (Christianity, Judaism, Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism, Sikhism, Jain, Bahai maybe even Zoroastrianism) is also required. I don’t think you need to know Western or Chinese astrology, but it also can’t hurt. Likewise you don’t need to know cryptography or computer programming, but it would be better for you if you do in fact since then you can use computational analyses. Video production and propaganda is also good to know. You also need to know as many languages as possible, I recommend fluency in one obscure but conflict driven region that is your interest and then the UN languages, which are English, French, Spanish, Russian, Chinese, though you should also know Arabic or Hebrew (they are closely related), German would also be good. Other main languages are Indonesian, Hindi/Gujarat/Urdu. Farsi is not a bad choice. Try to start with the languages which most interest you and are also relevant to your career. My point is: to be able to accurately understand and then predict how when and why people kill each other is no easy matter but can be learned. Maybe start with Sun Tzu, then Mao, then Napoleon, then Mahan, then Liddel-Hart and finally Clausewitz because although Clausewitz is wrong you will not be able to know that or why without a good grasp of the main military theorists. You dont need to know fundamental or technical stock analysis or how to write ad copy but since it is not ethical to monetize murder you might better have at least some economic tricks up your sleeve.
So yeah, there is a lot to learn, and its not ethical to monetize.
相 Religions
Manicheanism:
Culture, education, language, religion, history, and ideology all shape how leaders form and how masses implement State power. All these are aspects of what Marx called the “superstructure” i.e. the “relations of production”. You must understand them to accurately predict, form, and apply state power. Like material factors such as geography and demography the constrain choices and those choices in turn create path dependence. Some people will literally die for their imaginary all-powerful and all knowing but invisible friend such is the power of religion “the opium of the masses”!
Mathew 7:5 “Thou hypocrite, first cast投在木头 out the beam木 out of thine own eye目 ; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote尘 out of thy brother's弟 eye目”
If you are also religiously minded and fluent in Chinese kindly considering searching for oblique references to Chinese like the above. E.g. (Luke 18:25), "it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God." 骆驼,丝,目,眼,针
By the way, the Chinese pre-Christian Mencius founder of Mohism, was literally a carpenter king and preached a doctrine of universal love. 兼爱。 Now go do your basic fucking reading.
Do not think I would not sinicize Christianity to build world peace - I totally would.
It would make my Mother proud!
Learn Chinese!
Learn Chinese: "Can/Should/Might/Must/Have to" in Mandarin Chinese - YouTube
Phonetics: 殳Shū and 各gè appear to be mostly used as phonetic, not pictorial or semantic components. However, e.g. luo落 we see ge has the sound of luo, not ge. shu in contrast does not seem to shift so much e.g. 设 she as in shebei 设备。 If you have insights on these two phonetic components or 㕣 do please leave a comment.
可以新的大禹吗 ?
If All Rats in NYC Died Tomorrow, That'd Be OK, Rat Expert Says (businessinsider.com)