Stephen Walt & Hegemonic Stability Theory
Stephen Walt imagines the USA and China coming together to broker a cease-fire, truce, and/or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Unfortunately, Walt’s proposal is entirely unrealistic. Peace in Ukraine would require around 100,000 UN Peacekeepers. Neither China nor the USA nor any combination of NATO allies and China would be willing or even in some cases able to post the tens of thousands of troops required to stop Russia from killing more Ukrainians. The idea of the USA and China cooperating on security policy is ... optimistic. The USA and China are security rivals. No amount of trade, investment, or development changed that because of their sharply divergent ideologies: absolute state power, legalism, and only relativized collective political rights versus limited self-government under the rule of law with legally enforceable individual human rights. They spar and rival over Taiwan, but elsewhere too. There should be no need to recount their points of contention. So Walts’s imagined negotiation is entirely unrealistic, however well-intentioned it may be. Yet, though they are security rivals, the USA and China may remain trade and investment partners because of common cultural affinities for pacific wealth-getting including economic and personal connections, which may be the source of Walts’s blind over-optimism.
Dark imperialist politics of genocidal war for cheap raw materials, may well drive the conflict further. France, Germany, or even China may prefer a long running war to guaranty cheap oil and cheaper grain and destroy both countries armed forces. Fascists might even wish to continue exterminating slavs.
Even if the Germans, French, Chinese, and Americans were all entirely benevolent, with no conflicting positions like Taiwan or the South China Sea, what about Russia and Ukraine?
Anyone who imagines Russia (Putin) compromising or “negotiating” honestly is so naive or deceptive as to merit mockery. Putin, like Hitler, is a war criminal who very frequently lies and regularly murders his opponents. Putin will not agree in good faith to anything ever. Even if he did, Putin would break his word when convenient, lie about that, and then blame you for being so stupid as to trust him. To Putin, force and fraud are the only reality.
As to Ukraine, why should the Ukrainian government tolerate a vicious war criminal’s invasion? Why should the Ukrainian people accept subjugation and subservience to the mass murderers from Moscow? Ukraine will also be unwilling to “compromise” and rightly so.
Walt wants to cheap out on national defense. He seems only too willing to ignore 70+ years of U.S.-Soviet cold war, characterized by constant conflicts and proxy wars as well as Soviet state sponsored terrorism. Even if the Franco-German “axis” is benefic, even if China were not a literal communist dictatorship, even if the Russians really were Ukraine’s “brotherly nation”, the USA has every reason to destroy the Russian military and economy and reduce the Russian Federation to Muscovy. The USA can cripple Russia and make it incapable of ever challenging the USA — or China! — again. Russia’s war crimes are why the USA should do exactly. China will be only too pleased to see its barbaric northern neighbor, literal descendants of the savage 匈奴 …reduced.
The USA could power-couple planet earth with the People’s Republic of China. Just not like Walt blithely imagines. They would do so to rip apart the Russian Federation. Perhaps thereby they would restore the parts of China Russia stole to Chinese sovereignty. The U.S.A. has powerful carrots to encourage Chinese cooperation.
Jesus once said something like “Do not think that I have come to bring peace to the earth. I have not come to bring peace, but a sword.” Matthew 10:34–39. Jesus promised justice. So do I: but I am not Jesus. I would prefer not to bring a sword. Maybe I can help you obtain peace?
Deterrence + collective security + free trade + cross border investment + human rights + functionalism (aka liberal international institutionalism) = world peace.
Each of several competing theories of International Relations has at least one but not all the elements of the formula for world peace.
Sino-American cooperation on Ukraine is possible. Just not the way Walt blithely imagines. Here’s his well-intentioned piece of error: ukraine-russia-china-united-states-peace-ceasefire more news and analysis below the cut
Word of the Day: Shield, bouclier, der Schild, kilp, щит, 盾dun4
The realistic approach is to figure out Putin lies constantly, murders his opponents, and cannot be trusted and thus no negotiated solution is possible. He’s not crazy but thoroughly vicious.
macron-working-with-china-end-ukraine-war Unrealistic, much as I wish otherwise. Putin will not magically stop being a compulsive liar and war criminal. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will compromise, nor should Ukraine compromise: would you “compromise” or “negotiate” if a band of criminals broke into your house, killed your son, raped your wife, then killed her too, while stealing your washing machine, stereo, and car? They only want to move into your garage!
russian-ships-allegedly-getting-intel-preparing-sabotage-in-europe
treasury.gov/news/press-releases
https://substack.com/inbox/post/114351671 First actual analyst to figure out 1. cryptocurrency is criminal currency 2. how to effectively fight against it. Congratulations!
Rest your eyes Augenpause Ecoutez: AUDIO former-wagner-group-commanders-azmat-uldarov-alexey-savichev-confess-murder-ukraine-civilians-including-children/
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EU-calls-for-independent-policies-on-China
Beijing proposes peace-talks for Isreal-Palestine
Is U.S. diplomacy-as good as-dead? Unfortunately yes. Arrogant unilateralism is why.
More American hubris: Power is never absolute, unfettered, there are always challengers.
How-quickly-can-russia-rebuild-its-tank-fleet?
Russian Weapons Production & Tanks in Storage
Russian soldiers lost, leaderless, undocumented, dumped.
Submarines: Costly but effective.
Cracks-between-Kremlin & Prighozin
ANALYSIS: LIBERAL HEGEMONIC DOMINANCE: THE LEAST BAD AMONG PROPOSED SOLUTIONS FOR GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND EFFECTIVE FOREIGN POLICY
When one country has predominent power it can create conditions for peace and prosperity.
In regions where many countries can and do contend for power those countries are generally in various states of disorder, ranging from riots and civil unrest through coups and civil wars up to and including proxy and regional wars. Given the historic facts of wars and conflicts as opposed to peace and prosperity, people who imagine something better than hegemonic dominance. People who disagree with any system of governance bear the burden of coming forward with something better, not mere complaints, but actual workable solutions to real-world daily problems. I’m not a liberal, I simply recognize the transatlantic governance system is more productive and potentially a global model for peace and economic growth. So far, China hasn’t cobbled together an alternative beyond bi-lateral trade and investment (belt and road initiative) coupled with non-interventionism and trying to take advantage of various multilateral institutions, while complaining mightily about them. Though, China’s foreign policies have in fact led to peace and even prosperity for the Chinese people: so why “rock the boat”? After all, “water carries the craft, but can also capsize it”. If You live in a peaceful part of the world maybe just be quiet and grateful? Do you seriously think you could be doing so much better otherwise? And how, exactly?
Mysterious-flash-of-light-over-Kyiv
EMP FTW.
ESCALATION DOMINANCE ATTAINED DUE TO CROSS PROPAGATATING CONSTRAINTS.
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