PREDICTIVE PROGRAMMING: POWER AND INFLUENCE.
Baby wants Muscovy.
Baby gonna get Muscovy.
BABY GOT A MASTER PLAN.
VIVE LA FRANCE.
France & Baltic-states-dismayed-after-china-envoy-questions-ukraine-sovereignty
Power & Influence: Influence is more useful than power, paradoxically, at least if one is seeking certain outcomes. Be flexible in your means but inflexible in your ends. Be willing to let others claim credit for your hard work: they may truly have been working in parallel, or seen things you didn’t, and in any event by claiming your policy prescriptions they are your allies. “Success has a hundred fathers, failure is an orphan”.
Description: Ukraine will win. (certain: predicting the outcome)
Prediction: Within a year! Due to superior training, motivation, and equipment (likely: influencing the outcome’s course of events)
Description: Putin will fall. A mere description, he’s already 70, has faced repeated assassination attempts, and now is leading a failing war, making many enemies, all of whom wish to be his successor, not his savior.
Prediction: Perhaps by assassination, likelier by civil war. Predictions are factual, non-normative.
Power: Fostering violent resistance against the Putin regime inside Russia. I’m a freedom fighter, not a terrorist, I swear. Power is violence, influence is persuasion, they are fundamentally different yet related: power backstops influence.
Prediction: The Russian Federation will be dis-integrated into its constituent republics, which will be granted independence.
Influence: Outlining rational stable sensible plans for the collapse of Russia, and then putting those ideas into brains in Washington & Beijing for implementation.
Beijing wants its lands back, and greater influence in Central Asia. Washington wants Putin gone, and to contain China militarily. Europe wants Chinese business. All this is an example of what the Chinese call “Unity in Conflict.”
D.C. will set up Turkic and Finnic Republics in the soon to be ex Russian Federation as natural allies of Turkiye and Finland & Estonia respectively. But Beijing will insist on Amur and Vladivostok. So Japan will recover Sakhalin. This will be the new balance which gives outlet for Chinese economic power yet contains China militarily: preserving thereby the Chinese Communist Party in power. I am an evil genius for a better tomorrow, a hopeful monster.
Power: Reminding D.C. and China of the blood costs of war, the failings and costs of U.S. foreign policy during the past 20 years as well as the real risks of Islamic extremist terrorism which neither in fact wants. In case you disbelieve me, here, have a side of provos and red army factions with your slice of Islamism in Xinjiang, Banlieux AND Dearborn. Hunger much?
Influence: Reminding D.C. and Beijing they both love money. I’m not some evil terrorist, honest, I am a freedom fighter fighting for peace and a better tomorrow.
And you have no better options: I describe your optimal future. If you want to explore the darker alternatives enjoy more funerals, less swag, and frustrated unstable youth willing to oust you from power. The USA just wasted 2 trillion dollars and tens of thousands of lives on an unrealistic strategy in the greater Middle East. Perhaps listen to me this time?
CHINA:
"These ex-USSR countries don't have actual status in international law" Ambassador Lu, Chinese ambassador to France.
china-singapore-plan-military-drills
“I came with power to create the world.
让爱无限打开你翅膀现在就闪烁在银河.” =
“Let love without bounds open your wings, thus the milky way now flashes luminescent!”
LEARN LANGUAGES: IT IS AN ORDER!SOME PEOPLE WANT AN APOLOGY.
“Even when you apologize it is hard to adjust your mood”
Legion Lesson: Learn your target language in a language which is NOT your native language! So e.g. I study Chinese in Russian. My French teachers were… Portuguese. Aim for mastery in 3 languages of your allies (C2) and 3 languages of your enemies (C1). Aim to comprehend and speak 15 languages at A2/B1. Languages you love are easy but duty means you must learn your opponent’s language in order to avoid war if possible, win if necessary. Clear deterrent signalling preserves peace between adversaries.
Propaganda: This is an example of fairly obvious Russian covert propaganda. A bunch of purported nuns (evoke sympathy) lurid colors, religious (indemonstrable) overtones; mix up the lies with some truth for credibility, deflect from the true source, obscure the true target; the idea is actor A incites actor B to try to attack actor C, but in fact to damage actor D, which is A’s enemy. “Let’s you and him fight”. Newsweek does a good job refuting it.
Russia does have EMP weapons. They are crude, not directed. The air defense EMP weapon detonated over Kyiv was targeting Russian air assets: a directed EMP weapon, which chooses specific targets as opposed to an indiscriminate crude EMP, which fries both sides’ electronics.
Welcome to the Armed Wing of the 。 。 。
I did it.
I’m glad I did it.
I would totally do it again.
It made my Mother proud.
Clown nation: Russian-cheesecake-poisoning-doppelganger-nyc
Putin-is-preparing-to-attack-the-UK
Purge and Counter-purge in the run-up to second Russian Civil War intensifies Girkin (Strelkov, “DNR”/“LNR”) says Prigozhin (Wagner) should be arrested
Mercenary-warlord’s-troops-terrorize-Russia
NATO-alliance-chief: After Russia loses its stupid horrible war on washing machines and Ukrainian children, Ukraine will join NATO.
Blabby, Leaky, Horrible U.S. NOPSEC worse than admitted: feckless, reckless, and unsurprising to actual professionals. Is “need to know” so difficult? Thankfully not all intelligence services are so god damned fucking slipshod. That secret your greasy butterfingers are all over? Someone may have died obtaining it. And someone else might die if you “leak” it. And speaking of state secrets and the fate of a nation…
How to wreck an organization from within: (non exhaustive!)
Encouraging illicit love affairs, drug and alcohol abuse, spread vicious half-true rumors, sabotage/steal equipment especially repair tools (that will not get noticed and will delay things when needed), petty thievery, jealousy, encouraging addictions to gambling, alcohol, drugs, are other wrecker tactics. Fostering dysfunction among your enemies is nasty, war is nastier.
Mao Bincheng on how USA and PRC could cooperate on Sudan peace.
Note: Chinese people have clan names. This Mao is thus in the same clan as China’s foreign minister Mao Ning, and both are in the same clan as the former Chairman Mao Zedong. This is akin to one being, e.g. a Kennedy, which is also a clan name.
One day the horrible stupid war will end and then there will be reconstruction.
Free eBooks!
review of Globalization with Chinese characteristics.