What's Next for Ukraine? Oh, not much, just deep strikes inside Russia targeting petroleum infrastructure, strikes at sea against Russian cargoes, destabilization of the "Russian" federation by fomenting rebellion among the score of countries still occupied by Russia, targeted killing of Russian leadership, and Ukraine clawing back its airspace to gain local and then national air superiority culminating in the complete destruction of the RuSSian officer corpse, the Russian air force, and the Russian navy. Russia's best outcome is to survive as a demilitarized empire but you can bet, me and mine, a coalition, will in fact dismantle the "Russian" Federation because, duh, an empire of lies, murder, and rape is a threat to every other State on earth. So yeah, it takes but little to convince many, Many State AND Non-State Actors to hit the Russians again and again, harder and harder until the criminal haven which IS Russia collapses into blood and chaos -- to the profit of China! This is how fucked Putin really is.
“We’re gonna hold onto him by the nose and we’re gonna kick him in the ass!”
SURPRISE!
Surprise in war may be relative or absolute. They may be easily understood as: 1. attacked, with no expectation -- absolute surprise. As opposed to 2. relative surprise, where we are expecting an attack but unsure where or when. Absolute surprise is rare. The first type of surprise is strategic -- surprise to war. The second type is tactical -- surprise in war. Putin knows I'm gonna hit him, again, and again, and again, relentlessly. Oh, but he does not know where or when! Relative surprise will do just fine, thanks!
Strategy is the guiding plan for war-fighting: strategy attempts to predict and prepare for war during peace, with whom to go to war and why. In war strategy seeks to coordinate allies and and prosecute the war at the highest and broadest level.
Tactics are the combinations of combat actions used to fight: when and how to shoot, what to shoot at, for example.
Surprise in war at any level is a force multiplier of about 3 or even as much as 7. The problem with launching a surprise attack is the reactions of third parties. The attacker which launches a surprise attack generates extreme distrust from third parties. This is because surprise attacks are often preceded by deception operations to assure the victim of the aggressor's entirely peaceful intentions. When Hitler broke his non-aggression treaty with the USSR to attack by surprise his attack was much more successful but then no other country could trust German treaties. Likewise, when Osama Bin Laden attacked the USA he more or less made it obvious to any other country on earth that he might also attack them, more or less sealing his fate.
Untested weapons, weapons which have never been used in battle are one example where tactical surprise is possible. In World War II the Japanese had a uniquely fast and long ranging torpedo, the infamous "long lance". It was unexpected, and resulted in many ships being sunk. Tactics can also result in tacical surprise. The French did not expect highly coordinated deep penetration by German mobile warfare (Bewegungskrieg) or psychological operations (Weltanschauungskrieg), which we commonly but somewhat inaccurately call "blitzkrieg" and "fifth column". Likewise, the USA did not anticipate the Japanese would run carriers in large groups launching coordinated strikes of expertly flown high performance long range aircraft, a better tactic than the U.S. approach of one carrier per battle group. However, the USA was capableof learning from combat experience and unlike Japan was able to train new replacement pilots and also to improve its damage control procedures, resulting in ever fewer U.S. losses and ever greater Japanese losses. Surprise matters, butso do other factors.
The interesting question is not when and how to launch surprise attacks, wars by surprise, acts of grand perfidy. Rather, the question is how to avoid being caught off guard. The USA has been attacked by surprise on at least two occasions, 9/11 and December 7, Pearl Harbor. The USSR was also attacked by surprise in 1941. In Ukraine, although the ordinary Ukrainians did not expect a war, obviously the Ukrainian government prepared for and anticipated the Russian's attack. This is then a case of relative surprise. The Ukrainian leaders knew it entirely likely Russia would attack, but did not know when or where. I, personally expected only attacks into those parts of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia, because unlike Putin I know that the Ukrainians do not wish to be "liberated" and are not led by a cabal of gay Jewish nazi satanists. Consequently Putin launched an impossible war expecting to kill or capture Zelenskiy and overthrow what he, mistakenly, believes to be a puppet state's government. Wars are won by whoever makes fewer mistakes and the more accurately one calculates and prepares for possible wars the fewer mistakes one makes. Surprise goes both ways.
A rational approach might focus on deterrence: to have a deadly decisive counter-strike despite a surprise attack. The problem is, not all actors are rational, not all people can be deterred. It is entirely possible that Osama Bin Laden was literally suicidal, and even likelier that he was willing to die for his cause.
Predicting the unexpected to prevent surprise requires one to consider uncertainties and exposed contraries to our expectations. After the Azerbaijan-Armenia war it was evident that drone aircraft will play a very important role in war. The war in Ukraine shows how vulnerable helicopters are in wars between peer and near peer competitors. The vulnerability of Russian tanks should have been expected given their poor performance in the Iraq wars, yet some were surprised by that fact, and then figure it means tanks are finished. The much better performance of Western tanks in Ukraine shows that in fact the problem is not the tank generally -- Challenger, Leopard, and Abrams are much more survivable -- but the Russian tanks' design.
The likeliest peer wars in the future will be in the pacific. It is possible China might invade small islands, spark proxy wars, or arm terrorists. We should prepare and plan for such problems so as not to be surprised. But, if China is a rational actor then policies of deterrence and peacetime vigilance will constrain the any irresponsible but patriotic extremists who might otherwise risk adventurism in the resolution of Chinese territorial and "merritorial" disputes. The policy of economic cooperation and military containment I advocate will give responsible Chinese leaders a path for even greater prosperity and disempower the extremist adventurists, whether ultra-leftists in the party, or ultra-rightists who are not in the party but may reflect broadly held views of the common people.
I do not expect any Chinese surprise attacks, but advocate being prepared for such precisely to deter them in case I were mistaken: I am not. But why take chances?
Wargaming more realistic scenarios
1. Fishing boats incident. China and Philippines or China and Vietnam have an "incident" where a Chinese or non-Chinese ship or both sink. And then what?
2. China invades Kinmen Islands. I have no answer for what to then. It should be carefully wargamed, peacegamed, and used as a simulation exercise for diplomats and military alike.
3. China invades Diaoyu islands. What would Japan do?
4. China intervenes in Burma/Myanmar. China alread has a Chinese ethnic puppet state in Northern Burma. Scenarios would be China occupying Burma to expand this statelet into full governance. Conflict scenarios range from UN approved peacekeepers, through non-UN approved peacekeepers all the way to the improbable scenario of China essentially invading Myanmar/Burma and meeting armed opposition. This is unlikely because what would China get out of such an invasion? Indirect rule into Burma/Myanmar is likelier thanks to China's ethnic Chinese statelet in Northern Burma.
5. Highly unlikely but interesting: China launches a long range military intervention into Tuvalu, Nauru, Timor, New Guinea, Solomons or some fictional island in the pacific - and then what? The Chinese are smart and cautious and are not going to try a surprise attack against Taiwan in part because Taiwan is entrenched and has been preparing for such an invasion since around 60 years. All the landing zones are already pre-registered for artillery strikes by entrenched and hidden artillery as well as by mobile howitzers. Xi Jinping does not want to be Galtieri.
AS PREDICTED HERE.
https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-china-presses-iran-rein
After UAV attack, IDF hits Hezbollah airstrip said built by Iran to launch drones
Feel free to start calling me “Captain Obvious lol”
Ukrainian-born-karolina-shiino-breaks-racial-barriers-win-miss-japan-crown-sparking-debate-what-it
Almost as if my predictions are actually accurate, and the things I say really do happen, huh!
YEMEN
Yemen's Houthis strike US warship, British tanker in Red Sea; UK vows to respond https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/yeman-houthi-red-sea-ship-attack-oil-tanker-israel-palestine-hamas-gaza-attack-2494157-2024-01-27 India Today
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/26/middleeast/oil-tanker-fire-houthi-missile-attack-gulf-aden-intl/index.html
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indian-navy-deploys-guided-missile-destroyer-after-sos-call-from-merchant-vessel-in-gulf-of-aden-101706354790671.html
AS PREDICTED HERE: Russian oil at sea being targeted by any number of various actors. My only regret is that this vessel was not crewed by Russians or owned by Russia. https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3249986/oil-tanker-carrying-russian-fuel-fire-after-houthi-strike-red-sea
Prediction: the Anglo Americans will successfully use the conflict in Yemen to strengthen Anglo-Indian ties, to strengthen the military containment of China. There is nothing China could do to stop that nor should it since military containment (sticks) are alongside continued open markets for trade and investment (carrots). The cost of not decoupling is containment. This is a price the Chinese government should be glad to pay - peace and prosperity at no cost in Chinese lives. I also predict India will launch retaliatory strikes against the Houthi terrorists.
China could have, but chose not to, participate in anti-terrorist and anti-piracy operations in the Red Sea. This is why it can do but little to influence the course of that conflict. Do not be surprised when tankers carrying Russian sourced hydrocarbons OR refineries refining Russian hydrocarbons get hit. You have been warnt.
Decoding China: How Beijing deals with the Houthis
https://www.dw.com/en/decoding-china-how-beijing-deals-with-the-houthis/a-68097763
I wonder where DW got that idea from? )
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/national-security-adviser-jake-sullivan-to-meet-chinas-wang-yi-for-talks-on-houthi-attacks-in-red-sea-51f28d8f
ISRAEL
The problem with A "two state solution" is the first step to a final solution. Israel is terribly small, and not easily defended, which is why the Israelis are so aggressive. Historically, Prussia faced similar circumstances, a small indefensible state forced to a war-like "forward defense".
It may be useful to understand that Arab loyalties are local and religious rather than national. One's clan or tribe are more important than the nation and so is one's religion. This is why a "Palestinian state" is not the solution you may imagine. To Moslems, nationalism is war like and is not the solution to the problem of war, Islam is.
In any event, after the war(s) the Israeli government should simply build land mines and fences along its insecure borders. As seen from the battle of Kursk, the battles of Alamein, and also from recent combat in Zaporizhia, Ukraine, land mines are still a very effective defensive measure.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/26/politics/israel-hamas-hostage-talks-bill-burns-europe/index.html
I JUST DRONE ON AND ON AND ON ....
TARGET THE ENEMY COMMAND STRUCTURE.
War is Trauma
Eric the flocking fowl mouthed parrot goes into group therapy!
He was last heard repeatedly cawing "group the rapy group the repay!" That bird can spell! https://ktla.com/news/foul-mouthed-parrots-to-undergo-group-therapy/
“don’t know how bad it was bad it was bad it was”
Learn Chinese
Religion:
Vox Populi, Vox Dei.
JuliUS JesUS, CaesaR ChRist.
One reason for the assassination of Caesar was his apotheosis. Yes, Julius Caesar literally claimed to be God.
Rome needed an ideology to unify their Republic and Empire. The polytheistic cults and liberal tolerance were insufficient to coopt radicals. The early Christians sought to overthrow the pagan empire. This is why the Roman Empire took up Christianity -- to coopt the radicals and unify the empire.
It is possible Jesus was the illegitimate child of Julius Caesar and Cleopatra.
Aside from Buddhism (Gnostic gospels) and Taoism (I am THE WAY) Christianity also took up the various mystery cults (Kore-Persephone, Pythagoreans, Gnostics) and then went on to Christianize various pagan Gods as Saints and pagan festivals. This is why we can see "the Aryan Jesus" blond haired, blue eyed. Or black Jesus and Mary.
I do think there was a historical Jesus and were he the unacknowledged child of Caesar and Cleopatra that would certainly give many people reasons to try to kill the infant child, and also explains how Mary could be a virgin (which is also from one of the mystery cults) yet have a child. Why would Rome impose a census and tax of newborn children?
"Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's"
Before Cang Jie invented and systematized the characters creating writing all we had to record history were myths and legends, songs and poems. We study them to try to reconstruct pre-history, language (etymology), and to understand foreign cultures and the evolution of culture.
Pangu, also known as Pan-Atlas, also known as Mimir.
Mercantilism & Involuntary Technology Transfer: Lure. Trap. KILL!
Lure in foreign investors to invest into China and commence manufacture in China to sell products in China.
Trap i.e. fix down their investment so that they cannot simply pull out without losing a significant infrastructure investment, usually factories and land, things which cannot be removed from China easily or even removed at all.
Kill i.e. strip the foreign company of intellectual property, client lists, marketing plans, patents, trade secrets. And then direct all that stolen i.p to the Chinese analog, the Chinese "national champion".
Watch the foreign investment in China fail and the Chinese industry take off!
It's really not my fault if crapitalists Still haven't figured out: China is a mercantilist state capitalist dictatorship. It is productive, not war like, and you can engage in bilateral trade deals, but if you imagine China will ever have a nice open western economy lol, just lol. Crapitalists have been dreaming DREAMING about "a billion cokes a day!" in sales since At Least 1968. It still hasn't happened and will not happen. What has happened is Chinese produce a billion trinkets a day, which they traded up (and stole) to make thingamabobs which they traded up for thingamajigs and worked there way on up to whatchamacallits. You can do business with them but don't expect to be able to repatriate profits from China let alone capital.
Elon Musk is also fucked, he just hasn't figured it out yet. So is Jack Ma. Almost as if ...China is governed by Marxists!
老百姓加油!解放西伯利亚!
I want to be your best dream and their worst nightmare. -”Eric”
Impeccable writing, wonderful insight. You made my day! Just thinking about this depraved group going down gives me enough hope to get through the rainy AF days i. The PNW. Keep going, we appreciate you!