The martial outpost on the edge of hell 镇
CONSTRAINT PROPAGATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF IMPERFECT INFORMATION
These horrible things I do? They are necessary. They are not those things I would have preferred. We constrain the opponent to a range of outcomes. This does not mean that they are constrained to the optimal outcome! They are merely constrained to a range of outcomes, all of which are acceptable to ours. China appears to have learned this lesson: constrain your counterpart’s choices to those which are at least acceptable to you. States at peace, yet not allied, usually are in mutually tolerable constrained relations.
There are no unacceptable outcomes for China regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China has constrained the USA and Russia to contention, all possible outcomes of which are acceptable to China. Most constraint solutions are bilateral, but China has indeed dual constrained at least two great powers. France, Britain or Germany might not be constrained by China! This, mutual respect, common interests among members of a true alliance, & the fact no one knows everything, give further cause to accord leading roles to local leaders. No individual is perfect or can know everything: no nation is in fact “indispensible”. Everyone has a perspective, something to contribute. None of us is as strong as all of us.
Russia clearly attempted to constrain the European countries, mainly with gas and petroleum, yet clearly failed to constrain them.
OPERATIONAL SECURITY:
Know Yourself.
A probabilistic approach helps one come to terms with lax U.S. operational security. If the U.S. fails at operational security 10% of the time, that's still 9 out of 10 effective operations. OPSEC is about reducing the risks of spies, infiltrators, wreckers, traitors. There will always be such, the fewer the better.
The USA is not “indispensible”: arrogance, waiting to blossom into hubris, while it cheerleads stupid but violent people. Hitler did that: told Germans “We are superior”. Led to initial success, then over-reach, & finally: catastrophe. You’re not a special snowflake. Everyone isn’t a winner.
Know Your Enemy.
Recalling your opposition's weaknesses also helps cope with U.S. failings like inflated self-importance. The opposition is not flawless. Relying on enemy weakness is a strategic error: we may misapprehend their error, they may correct their error, and we in no case can control or influence their error. Still, our opponent is not perfect. Identify and exploit their weaknesses! “Know yourself, know your enemy: 100 battles, 100 victories.” Sun Tzu.
Opponent modelling is wise, but our strategy should, through constraints, compel victory even if our model of our opponent is wrong.
Never kill a source, always imprison or exile them.
More grim cause to keep your mouth shut: The other side plugs leaks with knives. However, sometimes they get "own goals" and kill the wrong people! What if we … encourage those mistakes? It's a sick way to win. I prefer a clean victory when possible. But isn’t it better if a few spies die in covert conflict rather than thousands, or many more, civilians and soldiers die in open war? Such is the cold calculus of conflict.
Stalin's (Putin’s) logic: Who cares if I kill ten people — provided I’m certain I killed the one who would kill me? That's a hell of a burn rate. All those dead innocents relatives become the regime's deadliest enemies. Victory depends on making as many allies as possible and depriving the opponent of support and supporters. Blood purges usually generate more opponents than they eliminate.
If you must go down the dark path, instill an as bloodless terror as possible. Even China doesn't do that, preferring, correctly, co-optation and prevention to terror.
As Russia spirals down I expect its policing to become ferocious, flawed, & unpredictable. Putin will kill more of the wrong people and drive more to oppose him: one day, one or more of them will strike.
I don't predict that for China. Some Chinese might distrust or even fear their government but they no longer hate it as they did right after Tiananmen. Currently, the majority of Chinese tacitly support yet also distrust their own government: sceptical patriotism.
These are not the only reasons to keep quiet yet calm. O can take a "leak" and then twist it, by encouraging pursuit of certain lines of inquiry. The "leak" itself may also be used to distract from other more important issues.
The best role for the USA is as coordinator of the most powerful alliance in human history: this means it can and ought give allies leading roles in their areas of expertise and defer to them. It is entirely evident the USA has the finest ELINT and SIGINT and can still break codes despite themselves. But the USA has certain recurring evident weaknesses: operational security, deception operations, information warfare, counter-intelligence. No one can watch everything. Keep your counterpart “in the dark” as to irrelevancies or even things which are not dangerous, but tip your hand as needed to warn them. Friend warn friends about bad things before they happen, when possible.
Although U.S. HUMINT isn’ best it also isn't the worst. The U.S. generally sucks at defensive counter-intelligence. The USA is unable to wage information war for cultural and ideological reasons.
Though the Russians & Chinese excel at penetrating opposing organizations to destroy them from within the U.S. could do so and U.S. allies -- Israel is the best example -- do in fact infiltrate foreign intelligence services. Here too the Israelis are excellent, generally speaking: Even they have operations that go bad. Be most skeptical about your own propaganda!
It is a shadow struggle so certain victories may never be known, or publicized only decades later. It's more important to identify and correct one's own errors than to brag about one's successes.
Informal open source networks can be more effective, especially in an alliance. Alliance coordination requires skilled diplomats. There are a very great number of skills and talents to coordinate. Recognizing one's own weaknesses and strengths is very important and leads to improved network coordination.
SURPRISE
In an earlier post I discussed relative and absolute surprise, and the fact a military can attain relative surprise despite breaches in operational security. One way is by very publicly talking about ALL the possibilities! Hey! Ukraine might have a nuke! WTF LOL. What if Turkiye quits NATO — and attacks Russia? Putin’s clowns are so used to being surrounded by lies and bullshit you could easily convince them of an incoming Chinese suprise attack. Or Ukraine might decide to wait for its counter-offensive until the summer, when it will have even more trained soldiers with even better equipment! Why strike too soon without reason? Spin scenarios, overwhelm with plausible detailed possibilities, and then the opponent’s service is overwhelmed. Or perhaps Ukraine will ask China to help mediate a truce — in bad faith, in order to launch attacks! China might not like that — unless of course China wants the Amur valley back, which Russia seized (stole) from China about 200 years ago (along with Vladivostock)… Simply because Washington is leaky & bad at lying doesn’t mean it has no allies who actually keep secrets or are even able to sow fake ideas in enemy heads. Mis kurat!
WORD OF THE DAY
Surprise! die Ueberraschung! la surprise! la sorpresa! hämmastus! удивление?!? 惊喜
R U S S I A
Prigozhin calls on Putin to declare victory and end the war. Prediction: Putin will not end the war. After Putin is gone, Prigozhin may rise to become head of state of Russia, or whatever is left after its collapse and defeat in this stupid horrible war. Prigozhin believes a Ukrainian counter-attack would win.
Wagner-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-claims-russias-mission-accomplishe
Boom, smoke at Russian-tank-training-ground
“Why don't we finally attack the U.S.?”
U K R A I N E
Draw your own conclulions.
Germany-has-evidence-of-hundreds-of-war-crimes-in-Ukraine
中华
Happy Orthodox Easter.
When China learns the truth about their ‘no limits’ partner there will be Hell to pay.
helping-ukraine-can-deter-china
how-america-can-support-ukraine-and-stay-on-guard-against-china
我要去江湖
Shattered dreams? Welcome to the martial outpost on the edge of hell. 镇
Quagmire is not a particularly strong cipher. It’s readily broken by brute force computation, unlike…
Beijing-warns-berlin-against-strategic-missteps
Free eBooks!
A guide to Common Law and the Bar Exam for jurists from civil law jurisdictions like France, Germany, China, Japan.
Feel free to write a review here
j
Review Link: Negotiable Instruments and Commercial Paper:
Quizmaster Law Digital Flash Cards
Feel free to write a review of Globalization with Chinese characteristics.
Speaking of Chinese: Also free.
Feel free to write a review of Chinese Vocabulary Builde
Look inside to find out more & buy my books https://amazon.com/author/quizmaster