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World Trade Organization or Western Trade Organization?
At the end of the US-USSR cold war the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs was transformed from non-binding guidelines among allied and friendly states into the WTO, with binding rules open in principle to any state committed to open borders for trade and investment under binding law to be enforced domestically (ratification). A few years later, despite serious recent human rights abuses, China was admitted to the WTO. The logic then was that helping China grow economically would reduce risks of war and even lead to democracy, rule of law, protection of human rights.
China remains in fact a mercantilist state-capitalist people’s dictatorship (Art. 1 Const. PR China). The Chinese government is not and was not committed to ideas of free trade and investment. The PRC seeks legitimacy and stability by providing the ordinary Chinese people a better and better standard of living to avoid a revolution, an indirect after-the-fact legitimation ex post.
Critics of China argue, in descending order of accuracy, that China simply ignores trade rules and laws and regularly engages in unfair trading practices such as rampant intellectual property theft, counterfeit goods, currency manipulation, and selling goods below cost to destroy competitors and achieve market dominance. There is some truth to all that. If China is systematically trading unfairly and prosperity has not led to democracy or even rule of law why should China be in the WTO?
There will always be trade squabbles, competitive disagreements, arguments about agreements. People and countries “game the system”, subsidize, tax write-off, and use non-tariff barriers to trade. However, open trade and investment has in fact generated prosperity for ordinary people, whether it’s cheap food, coffee, or even computers. This has been attended by a generalized reduction in military spending for 30 years. Thereto, it bears repeating, China has not engaged in open war, proxy war, or even state sponsored terrorism. China’s “no limits no matter what” partnership with Putin makes China look bad. But China itself, in military terms, hasn’t done bad things. Moreover, Chinese literary, artistic, and religious expression is far freer than it was during the cultural revolution, back when China was still beset by famine thanks to stupid economics. China’s economic practices need reform, but expulsion seems extreme and possibly unwise. These are serious value choices: is a prosperous peaceful undemocratic China acceptable? Or will it take prosperity and continue using it to build warships, aircraft, and bases for its eventual invasion of Taiwan?
To get it through some thick skulls: Closed trade by high tariff barriers caused two world wars, since the only way to expand trade was to expand territory, and states, prior to the U.N., had an absolute right to go to war at any time for any reason, usually to “adjust” borders. All that changed after 1945. So the global open trading system is better, both in avoiding war and in generating prosperity. So, it will survive, but may evolve or transform to better meet the problem of cheaters.
Mao Zedong was a General. Generals aren’t economists. War isn’t business, despite managerial fantasies to the contrary. Be glad. War is painful: sleepless, cold, wet, hungry, tired, not to mention blisters, trench-foot oh and did I forget to mention? Someone is shooting at us. Business is nice lunches, clean clothes, and no beatdowns or loud noises. “Revolution is not a dinner party”. Business often features dinner parties. People who fantasize about business-as-war need some cold hard reality. They probably also need less food and more exercise.
I expect the WTO and China-Europe trade and investment to survive the re-ordering which occurs after the collapse of the Russian Federation and its disaggregation. I might be wrong, but I am certain everyone else is very fond of having nice things. I am also certain common prosperity makes peace in all forms likelier. Macron is clearly currently seeking to maintain EU-China trade and investment ties. The USA in contrast may be seeking to constrain China economically and is seeking to contain China militarily. I predict China will be contained militarily, but will continue to grow economically. China ought to be happy with that outcome, having avoided war for 30 years now it would continue to do so, with consequent domestic stability and a massive increase in domestic prosperity. But people, at least our so called leaders, are power-hungry and avaricious. They seek to maximize their power. So they willingly risk throwing away something good they have (prosperity), in hope of subtaining sumting they misstakingly sink better…
namely: shiny toy guns.
Whether you know it or not you are in a Mars race with the People’s Republic of China.
In other words: despite an obviously optimal position greedy egotists might throw it all away, screwing the rest of us over. So: quit worshiping “leaders”. No one is perfect. No one is indispensible. Take up leaderless resistance! Restructuring the WTO may well be part of the Post-Putin re-ordering of the international system.
RUSSIA
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Rest your eyes, work on your English listening comprehension: russias-effort-undermine-yevgeny-prigozhin-reaches-next-level
You will know the Truth: and the Truth will Set you free.
“U.S. intelligence appears to have penetrated nearly every Russian military body including the General Staff, the Defense Ministry and the GRU military intelligence agency, as well as the private mercenary group Wagner.” If only… I’m sorry, were nowhere near this good.
Butterfingers means you can’t catch a ball, like your fingers are soaked in melted butter. Murrican spies? But, er… Butter? Mmmm! BUTTER!
FINGER LEAKIN’ GUT
FRANCE: MACRON, TAIWAN
Boat!
Boys like boats!
Vive la France.
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If these articles are paywalled use your vpn and switch to e.g. USA, Canada.
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ouais, c’est vrai. En plus je suis coupable. Maman serait fière!
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Simone Gao
Simone Gao is another Falun Gong journalist worth watching. I don’t always agree with her, but she’s always worth listening to, and very often has insights I, likelier you, may miss. Half her broadcasts are in Chinese, and some of those have subtitles, so you can also use her materials for learning Chinese. I definitely don’t agree with a lot of things Falun Gong says or thinks, like I always agree with the literal CCP. I think it’s important for analysts to have a mind open enough to consider all possible sources, but decisive enough to know when not to agree and why. It’s vitally important to exactly understand a position you disagree with to avoid errors and persuade neutrals. It is rare and difficult to persuade others who disagree with you, but it is possible to persuade uninformed people who might agree with you, and if your arguments are logical and supported by facts congratulations, you will be likelier to win allies: and wars are all about marshaling your resources while disrupting and if possible seizing your opponent’s resources. Here’s her thought on Ukraine and Taiwan, they are related issues, which is why I am not talking about them since I wish to prevent wars rather than spark them. Sometimes what people don’t say is as important as what they do say.
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Although Macron does not speak for Europe he can, and he most certainly does speak for France. While Taiwan certainly could use French submarines apparently Macron values trade with China more than deterring a Chinese murder tour of Taiwan. As I have written elsewhere: China will not invade Taiwan for at least 2 years, likelier at least 5, and probably never. First, why kill your own people? It’s not like the USA or France will invade Canada, for example. Second, Chinese-Taiwanese trade is profitable, so is cross-straits tourism. Third, why obtain by bloodshed what you might obtain by politics and diplomacy? Finally, the USA is obligated under domestic U.S. law to defend Taiwan from any invasion. The U.S. can and will deter a Chinese invasion, including with U.S. military might. But the PRC is a stable responsible trade partner which would never start yet another Chinese civil war, right? Why people who have good things want even more and ignore the obvious real risks of bad things escapes me.
Rest your eyes, improve your English listening comprehension, and understand some ugly facts about the bad old days with The Economist Podcasts: the-hope-of-1998-now-seems-distant-northern-irelands-politics-are-stuck-the-good-friday-agreement-at-25
Ulster, Ireland
As I explained in a prior post, Putin’s goal in BRExit was to destroy the EU and especially to provoke renewed terrorism in the EU, first and most notably in Northern Ireland. Thus, as a consequence, we will increasingly see Northern Ireland in the news. However, it’s 30 years later. The world and Irish people have moved on. Aside from scattered sporadic provocative protests, inspired and incited by Russian provocateurs and their handlers, we will not see a return to widespread terrorism in Irleand, or the Basque lands, or in Flanders, Greece, Germany, Italy, or Corsica, all of which at times faced serious Soviet state terrorism, usually as “Red Armies”: Japanese R.A., R.A. Fraktion, Brigate Rosso. Russia will however try to ignite any or all of that. Soviet handlers would have called them the “Irish Red Army” but that would have made it even more obvious and alienate potential Catholic supporters. Well, Russia is not the USSR, lacks any ideology to challenge liberal democracy and is clearly less effective at warfare than the USSR was. Basically the fact Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine explains both why it will attempt to spark terrorism and why it will fail: Russia already has too few resources. So, the quicker Russia loses its foolish war in Ukraine the quicker terrorism in Europe is extinguished. Send Ukraine arms and ammunition.
“To be sure, some of the flash points are gone. As a result of the 1998 agreement, the British military is out, the Royal Ulster Constabulary police force has been replaced and the Irish Republican Army has laid down its arms. But small gangs of ‘dissident’ dead-ender republicans still make trouble. And the old loyalist paramilitary organizations have mostly morphed into drug dealing, extorting the very communities they pretend to protect.”
"As the parade was un-notified, police were in attendance with a proportionate policing operation."
THE TRUTH WILL SET YOU
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