Legio Patria Nostra: https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/je-suis-un-homme-de-principe-le-parcours-d-aleksander-legionnaire-du-2e-rei-sur-le-front-du-donbass-20230131
Word of the Day: Conscription, la conscription (Fr.), die Wehrpflicht (De.), la conscripción (Esp.), призыв на военную службу, воинская повинность 征兵 zheng1bing1
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Julian Spencer Churchill: China’s Economy & the Chinese Military
So far, Professor Churchill doesn’t discuss Maoist strategic thinking or ancient Chinese strategic thinking so far (36 Strategems and On War). I’m unsure whether he will get to it later or not. All I shall say thereto is you cannot understand Chinese military and foreign policy without understanding the principle of unity-in-conflict. When I argue you must accept the fact you are economic partners and national security competitors that is a position immediately evident to the Chinese leadership since all conflicts, whether seen from Daoism, Sun Tzu, Maoism bring the competitors into conflict and cooperation. This is a fundamentally different mind-set than that of Western strategic thinkers.
I’m of the opinion that corruption and opium addiction are better explanations of why China only industrialized at least a century or even two after Europe than blaming Confucianism.
Professor Churchill’s lecture reiterates import substitution industrialization as the supposed basis of China’s economy. In fact China (like it’s German mentor) is an export substitution economy. Professor Churchill’s lecture is surprisingly optimistic about the possibilities of liberal democracy arising out of capitalism in China.
I do not expect the CCP to be ousted, certainly not without a great amount of bloodshed, and thus a policy of ouster, direct or indirect, is foolish, as the elder George Bush thought back in 1989. The alternative to the CCP is … another Chinese civil war, with millions of dead.
Professor Churchill appears to presumes the CCP does not want democratic feedback, when in fact it does: it just wishes to stay in power more than to create powerful mechanisms for democratic feedback.
There is a path to further democratization and rule of law in China and the growth of non-governing parties or even local governing parties. These are some of the reasons I advocate economic engagement (carrots) and military deterrence (sticks).
High Chinese SARS II Infections due in part to fake medicine.
china-is-sending-interesting-signals-to-the-us-is-anyone-listening
RUSSIA
Trump (still) behaving like a pro-Russia agent
russian-army-headed-totally-incompetent-people-ex-russian-vp-warns
russia-ukraine-girkin-putin-strelkov-failure-effort
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RUSSIA ANALYSIS: Will Russia Survive Until 2084?
Spoiler: No. Russian Federation will be disaggregated into its constituent republics circa 2025. These horrible things I am doing, are terrible, but necessary, as in unavoidable; they are the best possible choice among only bad choices. We will end this foolish war as quickly and bloodlessly as possible and restore the world to normal trade relations, peace, and prosperity. The others are doomsayers and only offer you worse choices than the outcomes I am delivering.
Analysis: Russia
Unfortunately I believe a coup is less than likely, not impossible, but unlikely. A year past with at least two attempts coming to public knowledge. However, though Putin is a terrible general he’s an effective spy. Purges and counter-purges are his specialty, not invasions. Hope for a coup, plan for a second Russian civil war.
Second Russian Civil War: the various armed groups in Russia will (already are) argue over supplies, equipment, recruits; eventually one will wind up shooting the other. Patriot, Wagner, Russian Army, Chechens, Kadyrovites, Syrians are the factions which will form up in the coming second Russian civil war. A civil war is possible and grows likelier the longer the the war drags on especially if the war is ineffective.
mising-dallas-zoo-monkeys-found-safe cribs: SALAD, ALLA, TAMARIND EMPEROR ERROR MARINE 皇帝, 沙拉, 错误, 海军队, 他妈的
Improve your Oral English with What’s Next in the War in Ukraine? (Carnegie Endowment Podcast)
Putin’s war in Ukraine pushes ex-Soviet states toward new allies
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hungary-austria-will-not-send-weapons-to-ukraine-hungarian-defense-chief
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CHINA: Analysis
China doesn’t back an incompetent.
China doesn’t back a loser.
Consequently, China will not aid Russia but will seek to benefit as much as possible from Putin’s failure.
Chinese Soft Power:
China has a very attractive culture, if only one speaks Chinese.
Future Chinese cultural efforts will likely focus on making Chinese more accessible and making translations of Chinese works in politics, philosophy, economics, poetry, literature accessible as translations. These will seek to express China’s current political ideology, which is roughly speaking State-Capitalist Mercantilism, Confucianism, with a veneer of Maoist nationalism, vestiges of Marxism-Leninism, and occasional counter-currents of Taoism. In contrast, non-Han religions are largely frozen out or limited to enclaves. Islam in Xinjiang is legal but — because of Islamic terrorism — under serious surveillance. Likewise Christianity can be found in Hong Kong and Macau, but even here, apart from Catholicism and Anglicism, Christian sects are strictly discouraged.
Chinese military strategy expresses itself in: 1) 36 strategems, which really isn’t worth reading, its readable, but not deep. 2) Sun Tzu, who is generally badly translated but nonetheless well worth reading 3) Maoist protracted peoples war, which has been rejected since 1980 at latest 4) Unrestricted Warfare, which appears to be a current idea pursued in practice. How the USA, NATO meet these strategies is still an open question.
There is in all events a much greater field of Chinese thought to forge a competing ideology to global liberalism as compared to Putin’s effort to build Great Russian Orthodox Nationalism as an alternative to Western liberal democracy. However, Wang Huning has not amalgamated the various intellectual trends and histories of Chinese political philosophy and foreign policy.
Historically, China has long considered other countries barbaric, and sought isolation. Exceptionally, China has cultivated paternal-protectorate states with various tributary states: Vietnam, Myanmar-Burma, Korea, Mongolia. Japan and China have historically rivaled each other as true leader of the East and could be compared to Britain and France, especially greater France (Charlemagne, Napoleon).
Likely the most effective strategy both for China and the West is to encourage China to take up a civilizing mission of exporting and globalizing Chinese culture to establish friendly trade relations in place of military competition which China cannot sustain. Although Chinese people are not cowards China is effectively outnumbered and cannot confront and win in combat against any of the various coalitions which can be arrayed against China were China to pursue military adventurism. The Chinese government has managed to alienate each of China’s neighbors by making exorbitant territorial claims against all of them. Forming an anti-China coalition would be consequently very easy, and that coalition is both better equipped and more experienced in warfare. Consequently the risk of further Chinese adventurism is low, and the tendencies to placate the West through trade while exporting Chinese culture as a model for other countries to consider emulating will continue and likely intensify. That will include further humanitarian relief missions by the Chinese hospital ship “Peace Ark” and most likely will also include anti-piracy operations. There is in fact plenty of room for win-win bilateral cooperation with the Chinese state capitalist mercantilist dictatorship, even though multilateralism has clearly failed (China games the system). International liberalism has failed again to reform the domestic laws and politics of a foreign country.
Fortunately collective security + mutual (bilateral!) trade and investment + clear deterrent signalling will almost certainly prevent a war in the South China Sea, especially since Beijing sees clearly how badly the “no limits” “no matter what” partner Putin has failed.
China will present ideological and economic challenges but will be contained militarily.
Confucianism & Chinese Soft Power
“学而时习之,不亦说乎?有朋自远方来,不亦乐乎?人不知,而不愠,不亦君乎?”
“To study and timely review, is it not also to explain aloud?
To have a friend come from afar, is that not also joyous?
One, not knowing, yet not offended, is that not also noble?”
Confucius and Hobbes alike faced similar conditions: the breakdown of state power and consequent injustices. Confucius response was to restore the sense of justice from within, by revering one’s ancestors, respecting and restoring traditional cultural norms, including common courtesy and traditional rites. Confucius, like Kant, thought restoring and reflecting people’s sense of self-respect and social respect would generate a peaceful stable productive society to restore the war ravaged Chinese states and then people’s dignity.
Contemporary Chinese foreign policy, trammeled by national security competition, will find an outlet for national ambition in commerce and culture. China will expound, export, and expand Confucian values. Eventually, you too will likely also see learning as key to understanding justice and self-governance, to enjoy learning and teaching, to venerate your ancestors and respect your own familial and national customs. How China will civilize the barbarian nations is an open question, but an obvious one to any who have an in-depth comprehension of Chinese civilization. It is likely the future will speak of a new Chinese or new global enlightenment 新中华文明,全球的文明
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/asia/china-indo-pacific-folly
nato-chief-putin-win-ukraine-would-send-dangerous-signal-china
us-south-korea-want-peace-in-indo-pacific
France
France is a global power, one of only three capable of global power projection. French diplomacy, including human rights and humanitarian relief, as well as being on the right side of both world wars, enable France to have a much greater influence than most think.
Voila les moyens. https://www.lefigaro.fr/societes/la-non-livraison-de-deux-navires-mistral-a-la-russie-a-coute-409-millions-a-la-france-20230131
MDR :)
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