Trump & Corruption, Free eBooks, Thucydides, Sustainability, ASEAN 词汇
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Contents: Rethinking Thucydides, Trump, Corruption, News, Sustainability, ASEAN, 词汇, Learn Chinese Videos & free eBooks
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RETHINKING THUCYDIDES: ANGLO-CHINESE RELATIONS
Everyone wants to fight the last war -- in every sense of that word last. Indeed, war is often, perhaps usually "won" by the side that outlasts the other, the side that can take more punishment. But how many seek to figure out what the next war will be like, how the next war will be different? Some do, say at DARPA. But where are the visionaries who imagine, then plan, and finally implement measures and policies to prevent war and preserve peace? They are few, yet masters of this world, even if unseen, for they make, mold, and bend the rules we live by and the systems within which we live, for better or for worse.
The world's largest economies, the United States and China, face two significant parallel risks in their relationship: mutual misperception and blindness to opportunities. These pitfalls can lead to escalating tensions, miscalculations, and ultimately, conflicts, possibly even violent ones.
1. Mutual Misperceptions Risk Disaster
The first risk is that either Beijing or Washington and quite possibly both will mistakenly cast each other into the role of Tokyo, 1930. Imperial Japan led a path of conquest which proved brutal. The imperial war cabinet grasped at world domination at any price: millions died, and much wealth was destroyed. Because of this experience, it will be all too easy for China or the USA to cast the other into the role of the reappearance of their former foe, only larger and more powerful. It will be far too simple and appealing for either to mistakenly see the other as an intransigent militarist, whether driven by lust for power or lust for profits, bent on building up military power at any cost. This misperception, especially if mutual, can lead to a cycle of mutually reinforcing escalation, with no capacity for negotiations: For each side would view the other as untrustworthy and unwilling to negotiate. Why negotiate if the other side is in bad faith, at best, or outright dishonest? Why make deals when the other guy is a mass murderer? Why back down in the face of an intransigent militarist bent on maximizing their power at your cost and by any means? History has shown more than once that such misperceptions can have devastating consequences, as seen in the lead-up to World War I. In this scenario of misperceptions, negotiations become impossible, and each side becomes entrenched in its position. The consequences of such a standoff can be catastrophic, as both sides become more entrenched and unwilling to back down. The risk of miscalculation and conflict increases, and the world becomes a more dangerous place. And worst of all: it was avoidable. War is a man-made disaster — since we make it we can also prevent it.
2. Blindness to Opportunities: Missed Chances for Cooperation
The second risk is that both sides will be blinded by their own fears and ambitions, unable to see the opportunities for cooperation and mutual benefit.
The half-blind logic is: Even if you don't think the other guy is a brutal violent racist hell-bent on global domination, why take chances?
This misplaced prudence, born of fear more than hate, also leads to distrust, arms races, a climate of conflict and lost opportunities for mutual benefit.
People are all too easily overcome by our own fears, and thereby lured into hatred. So it is not ambition, or not merely ambition, that drives states into wars. It is also fear, and hate too. All of these pandoric spirits usually arise from various miscalculations. Miscalculations are what are the first and final cause not only of war, but also of a lost war. Those blinded by fear and/or hate are unable to see the facts. Consequently, the blind fight when fighting was avoidable. Worse, they fight badly and ineffectively because of the very fear, hate, and dishonesty that led them into conflict in the first place.
Fear, hatred too, can also lead to a narrow focus on short-term gains in peacetime, causing both potential adversaries to overlook the benefits of cooperation. Add dishonesty into the mix and its a wonder humanity has survived at all!
The fact is, both the USA and China today are generally speaking in a fantastic position!
Both the United States and China have achieved remarkable success. This is in part due to their economic interdependence. Each of them became so successful in part thanks to the other. Each of them can, together, grow even wealthier, live in an even better world of mutual understanding and mutual benefit.
However, their ambitions for more and fear of losing what they have can lead them to overlook the facts of prosperity and wide-ranging peace, that they are likely in an optimal position, a nash equilibrium. Failing to see facts as they would then work against each other instead of cooperatively. Their misplaced efforts to improve their already very good position, likely at the expense of the other, would backfire, possibly feeding into dynamics of fear, hate, and misperception resulting in, at worst, millions of dead, and much destroyed wealth. Game theory may help us understand better.
Political interactions in peace time tend to be a zero sum game.
Economic interactions in contrast tend to be a positive sum game.
But war is a negative sum game: each warring party is absolutely injured by war, though their relative power may well change.
Liberal democracy and market capitalism alike seek to transform war into politics, and politics into economics for this reason: to channel people's natural ambition and desire constructively and thereby avert destructive ambitions. With lust-for-power harnessed and channeled into productive works, people learn to build for prosperity together rather than to kill each other for power. This is, I think, what Xi Jinping means when he speaks of "common prosperity" and "win-win cooperation".
It is exactly this dynamic of peace-through-prosperity and prevention of conflict by cooperation that China and the USA can escape what Prof. Graham Allison calls "the Thucydides Trap".
The Path Forward: Effective Diplomacy
To avoid these risks, effective diplomacy is indispensible. International relations requires a deep understanding of economics, history, geography, law, religion, language and culture, inter alia.
There are many ways to make mistakes in both formulation and implementation of foreign policy. However, to preserve peace and build prosperity requires getting all of that right.
So, erudite, prudent, well-spoken and cultured diplomats, clear rules, and correct understandings of individual and societal dynamics are essential through comprehension of economics, history, geography, culture (language, religion, agriculture inter alia). We must know all that and more to be effective at international relations, whether as a soldier, diplomat, politician, or businessman. Yet, no one person can excel in all these areas. One can however have at least minimal competence in all of them. We can also and more importantly be part of much larger network of mutually supporting specialists working together to provide a comprehensive understanding of the issues and implications in forming and implementing foreign policy.
In conclusion, the Anglo-Chinese relationship is at a critical juncture. To avoid mutual misperception and blindness to opportunities, both sides must engage in open and honest dialogue, recognizing the benefits of cooperation and the risks of conflict. By doing so, they can create a more stable and prosperous world for generations to come.
FORMER US PRESIDENT TRUMP CONVICTED: VINDICATES RULE OF LAW, HIGHLIGHTS FLAWS IN US SYSTEM
In a landmark decision, former US President Donald Trump has been convicted of crimes, mostly varieties of fraud, so far. This marks a significant moment in the country's political history. This outcome not only tarnishes Trump's reputation but also highlights flaws and failures of the US political system. At the same time, this conviction is also a vindication of the rule of law against corruption. In that sense it is a great example of the concept of "unity in conflict": there could be no vindication where their no corruption.
The conviction of Trump, a figure who once held the highest office in the land, is a stark reminder that even the most powerful individuals are not above the law. However, it also underscores the systemic issues that allowed Trump's misconduct to go unchecked for so long.
The US political system, often touted as a beacon of democracy, has been criticized for its lack of transparency and accountability. The Trump conviction, the first I think of many, exemplifies of the consequences of unchecked power and the need for greater oversight. Moreover, this conviction has sparked debate about the role of the judiciary in holding elected officials accountable. While the verdict is a step towards justice, it also raises concerns about the politicization of the judiciary and the potential for bias in the legal system.
The international community is watching closely. Trump's convict has significant implications for global politics. The US, often seen as a leader in promoting democracy and the rule of law, must now confront its own shortcomings and work towards reform.
The conviction of Donald Trump is a sobering reminder of the flaws in the US political system. It is a call to action for reform and a renewed commitment to accountability, transparency, and the rule of law. As the world watches, the US must take steps to address its systemic issues and ensure that those in power are held accountable for their actions.
CORRUPTION: TRUMP IS A CRIMINAL, XI JINPING IS NOT.
Corruption, a pervasive and pernicious phenomenon, has long plagued the Chinese Communist Party, but efforts to eradicate it are underway. However, the question remains: does President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign target only his political opponents, or does it also ensnare those who claim to support him? The logical inference is that it does, as Chinese corruption appears to be largely financial in nature, unlike the more sinister and deadly corruption prevalent in Russia.
In Chinese culture, the concept of corruption extends beyond mere legal transgressions to encompass moral corruption such as aberrant sexual proclivities, but also gambling, heavy drinking varieties of conduct which while legal are not moral. This nuanced understanding of corruption is distinct from the Russian variant, which often involves deadly consequences, such as "accidents," "suicides," and "sudden illnesses." In contrast, China's corruption seems to be more contained, without the same level of violence and intimidation.
The inherent problem with dictatorships is that they create an environment conducive to rent-seeking and abuse of power, whether it be a monopoly on violence, industries, or even lightbulbs. This concentration of power can lead to a culture of corruption, where those in positions of authority exploit their influence for personal gain. This is why the Chinese government seeks in practice to attain rule-by-law and to strengthen democratic input and legitimation without however menacing the paramount position of the sole governing party in China. Thus we can anticipate the consultative roles of other legal political parties in China to become more rather than less influential. This is the distinction between power (might) and influence (suasion). Much of governance is suasive in practice.
Radical American nationalists, driven by a desire to undermine China's rise, may attempt to encourage corruption within China, hoping to precipitate a blood purge, riots, terrorism, revolution. However, this strategy would likely backfire, hamstringing U.S. foreign policy and pushing China further into the arms of other trading partners. China is not the USSR, and its economic prowess and political power are ponderous and ought not be underestimated.
As I have previously argued in my writings, Donald Trump's presidency was a manifestation of corruption. It may lead to the splintering of the GOP into new parties such as libertarians, social conservatives, and/or authoritarians. The GOP will likely to be replaced by splinter parties. The United States, fortunately, is not a party-political state, but rather a nation where individuals with shared interests and goals coalesce to achieve their objectives. However, this system of popular power can sometimes lead to threats to democracy itself, as special interest groups seek to undermine the system that has given them power, "killing the goose that lays golden eggs".
The case of Hong Kong serves as a cautionary example of misperceptions leading to missed opportunities Sacrificed on the altar of Anglo-Chinese conflict, the city's status as a safe haven for liberal democracy and a financial hub has been irreparably damaged. This means fewer Western ideas and less Western capital shall make its way into China, leading perhaps to poverty and resentment instead of admiration, emulation, and/or cooperation.
Currently, Taiwan plays a similar role as trading partner of China and the USA. Taiwan too could be sacrificed on the alter of misperceptions, if the ultras in Washington and Beijing, on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, are allowed to implement their extreme misguided policies. The USA shall resolutely defend Taiwan, as required by the Taiwan Relations Act, binding US domestic law, precisely so the USA and PRC can continue to enjoy the benefits of trade and investment.
The struggle against corruption is a complex, multifaceted issue that requires a nuanced understanding of power dynamics, morality, and geopolitics. As the world grapples with the challenges of corruption, it is essential to recognize the differences between various forms of corruption and to develop targeted strategies to combat them. Ultimately, the fight against corruption requires a collective effort to ensure that power is exercised responsibly and for the greater good.
“America just witnessed a confused, desperate, and defeated Donald Trump ramble about his own personal grievances and lie about the American justice system, leaving anyone watching with one obvious conclusion: This man cannot be president of the U.S.” -The White House
News
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/30/g-s1-1670/openai-influence-operations-china-russia-israel
She Doesn’t look evil
SUSTAINABILITY: SOLAR PUNK IS THE WAY AHEAD! 日力量是革命道!
She doesn’t look evil either. I guess I must be a sucker
SUSTAINABILITY, CHINA, AND THE RIGHT TO DEVELOPMENT
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been actively promoting sustainability in China's economy, driven by the need for energy autarchy, reduction of industrial pollution, and to improve the average Chinese person's quality of life with less pollution and more consumer goods of ever better quality. This commitment to sustainability is a win-win situation for the CCP. First, energy self-reliance ensures Chinese national security against boycotts or blockades. Second, and most importantly, energy autarchy through renewables like wind, solar, nuclear power also enhances the well-being of everyday Chinese citizens by reducing pollution and providing products. Considering sustainable development and the right to development under international law may also help us better situate Chinese industrial and foreign policy perhaps improving Anglo-Chinese relations and encouraging China to uphold international law in other related areas such as fisheries or oil development in the South China sea.
The CCP's desire for energy autarchy is rooted in its need to reduce dependence on foreign oil and ensure energy security. China is the world's largest energy consumer, and its rapid economic growth has led to a significant increase in energy demand. To address this, the CCP has set ambitious targets for renewable energy, aiming to generate 35% of its electricity from non-fossil fuels by 2030. This goal is crucial for China's energy security, as it reduces reliance on imported oil and mitigates the risks associated with price volatility and risks of boycotts or sanctions. A smart US approach would welcome Chinese independance from Russian oil, since Russia is a corruptionnaire par excellence. Less Chinese reliance on Russian oil means a weaker mafia state in Moscow which in turn means a quicker Ukrainian victory.
Another key driver of the CCP's sustainability efforts is the need to reduce industrial pollution. China's rapid industrialization has come at a significant environmental cost, with air and water pollution posing serious health risks to Chinese citizens. The CCP recognizes that a healthier and happier population is essential for social stability, economic growth and the legitimacy of the CCP. The well being of ordinary Chinese people is the foundation of the legitimacy of the CCP. Therefore, the CCP has implemented policies to reduce pollution, increase energy efficiency, and promote the use of clean energy sources.
The CCP's commitment to sustainability is also reflected in its support for renewable energy and electric vehicles. China has become the world's largest market for electric vehicles, with the government offering subsidies and incentives to encourage their adoption. This not only reduces greenhouse gas emissions but also helps to decrease air pollution in urban areas. The CCP's goal is to have 50% of all new car sales be electric by 2025, making China a global leader in the electric vehicle market.
The CCP's sustainability efforts are a win-win situation for the Chinese government, as they augment Chinese energy autarchy, reduce pollution, and improve the quality of life for its citizens. Here are a few examples evidencing these hopeful claims:
Example 1: The Three Gorges Dam, located on the Yangtze River, is the world's largest hydroelectric power station. It generates enough electricity to power 10 million homes, reducing China's reliance on fossil fuels and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions.
Example 2: The city of Shenzhen has become a model for sustainable development, with a goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050. The city has invested heavily in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and green infrastructure, making it a hub for sustainable innovation.
Example 3: The Chinese government has launched the "Made in China 2025" initiative, which aims to upgrade the country's manufacturing capabilities and promote sustainable development. The initiative focuses on high-tech industries, such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and advanced materials.
Example 4: The city of Hangzhou has implemented a comprehensive plan to reduce pollution and promote sustainable development. The city has invested in green infrastructure, such as parks and green roofs, and has implemented policies to reduce waste and increase recycling.
Example 5: The Chinese government has launched the "Belt and Road Initiative," a massive infrastructure project that aims to promote sustainable development and connectivity across the Eurasian region. The initiative focuses on green infrastructure, such as renewable energy and sustainable transportation systems.
Under international law, sustainable development is recognized as a fundamental principle of environmental protection. The 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development defines sustainable development as "meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." This principle is enshrined in various UN documents, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The right to development is also recognized under international law, as enshrined in the 1986 Declaration on the Right to Development. This declaration recognizes that development is a fundamental human right, essential for the realization of other human rights. The right to development is closely linked to sustainable development, as it requires the equitable distribution of resources and opportunities to ensure that all individuals can realize their full potential.
In conclusion, the CCP's commitment to sustainability is a win-win situation for the Chinese government, as it addresses energy security concerns, reduces pollution, and improves the quality of life for its citizens. The five practical examples provided demonstrate China's efforts towards sustainability, from renewable energy and electric vehicles to sustainable urban development and green infrastructure. The concept of sustainable development and the right to development under international law provide a framework for understanding the importance of sustainability in China's economy and beyond. As the world's largest energy consumer and second-largest economy, China's commitment to sustainability has significant implications for global environmental governance and sustainable development.
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TRADE WINDS OF CHANGE: CHARTING THE COURSE FROM CHINA-KOREA-JAPAN TO CHINA-USA-ASEAN
I. Introduction
The ongoing free trade negotiations between China, Korea, and Japan act as a strategic precursor to potential trade agreements involving China, the USA, and ASEAN. These talks highlight the delicate balance between the U.S. strategy of military containment of China and its simultaneous pursuit of economic engagement in the region. As China, Korea, and Japan make progress in their free trade discussions, the possibility of broader China-USA-ASEAN trade talks becomes more apparent. This underscores the complex interplay between U.S. military efforts to contain China and its economic interests in promoting regional stability and growth.
II. Background
Historically, China, Korea, and Japan have had complex economic and political relationships, marked by periods of cooperation and conflict. The recent shift towards deeper economic integration through free trade negotiations reflects a mutual recognition of the benefits of closer economic ties. These countries, despite their historical and territorial disputes, share significant trade and investment interests that can drive regional growth fostering peace through prosperity.
The United States has long been a pivotal player in East Asia, exerting influence through both military presence and economic partnerships. The U.S. strategy in the region has often been described as a balancing act between containment and engagement—seeking to curb China's rising influence while also fostering economic connections that benefit all parties involved.
III. China-Korea-Japan Free Trade Talks
The current trade negotiations among China, Korea, and Japan focus on eliminating tariffs, reducing trade barriers, and enhancing economic cooperation. These talks aim to create one of the largest free trade zones in the world, with the potential to significantly boost economic growth and development in the region. Each country has its motivations: China aims to solidify its economic leadership, Korea seeks to diversify its trade partners, and Japan wants to strengthen its economic resilience.
Key objectives of these talks include not only traditional trade issues but also emerging areas such as digital trade, intellectual property protection, and sustainable development. The potential outcomes could reshape the economic landscape of East Asia, making the region more interconnected and economically robust.
IV. Potential for China-USA-ASEAN Trade Agreements
The success of the China-Korea-Japan free trade talks could pave the way for broader regional trade agreements, including those involving China, the USA, and ASEAN. ASEAN, with its strategic location and growing economic significance, is a crucial player in any future regional trade framework. A potential China-USA-ASEAN trade agreement would integrate some of the world’s largest economies, fostering a more inclusive and dynamic economic environment.
Such an agreement would address various critical issues, including market access, investment protection, and regulatory harmonization. The strategic importance of ASEAN lies in its ability to act as a bridge between major economies, facilitating trade and investment flows that benefit the entire region.
V. The U.S. Strategy: Containment AND Engagement
The United States has a dual strategy in East Asia: military containment of China and economic engagement with the region, including with China. "We are not decoupling." -A. Blinken, US Secretary of State. The military aspect of US foreign policy in East Asia involves maintaining a strong presence through alliances and bases, aimed at deterring any aggressive actions by China. This strategy is rooted in concerns over China's growing military capabilities and territorial ambitions.
At the same time, economically, the US seeks to engage with East Asian economies through trade agreements, investment, and cooperation in areas like technology and innovation including trade with and even investment into China. Tesla is the most famous but not the only example of US business invested into China. No one is calling for divestment from China let alone the sort of sweeping sanctions currently crippling Russia, to the benefit incidentally of China. Economic engagement is essential because it can reward compliance while military containment deters war. This is nothing other than "carrots and sticks", a "mailed fist in a velvet glove". It is realistic yet also optimistic.
VI. Implications for Regional Stability and Growth
Successful trade negotiations among China, Korea, and Japan would enhance regional stability. Nations benefitting from each other are far less likely to go to war. Economic growth fosters interdependence, reducing the likelihood of conflicts as countries become more invested in maintaining peaceful relations. A stable and prosperous East Asia would benefit all involved parties, including the United States.
Moreover, the growth generated by such trade agreements could address underlying socio-economic issues, contributing to a more secure and stable region. As economic ties strengthen, the potential for broader and more inclusive trade agreements, such as those involving China, the USA, and ASEAN, becomes increasingly feasible.
VIII. Conclusion
The ongoing China-Korea-Japan free trade talks serve as a crucial step towards potential China-USA-ASEAN trade agreements. These negotiations highlight the intricate balance between U.S. military containment of China and its pursuit of economic engagement in East Asia. The success of these talks could pave the way for broader regional cooperation, enhancing stability and growth. By effectively managing this balance, the United States can promote a more prosperous and secure future for the region and itself.
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Chinese Cultural Values: Vocabulary
0. 勤劳 qin lao hard working, industrious, enterprising.
1. 仁爱 (rén ài) - benevolent and loving, emphasizing the importance of kindness and compassion.
2. 厚德载物 (hòu dé zài wù) - rich in virtue and capable of great things, highlighting the value of moral character and integrity.
3. 谦卑 (qiān bì) - humble and modest, stressing the importance of humility and a willingness to learn.
4. 勤俭 (qín jiǎn) - diligent and frugal, emphasizing the value of hard work and thriftiness.
5. 礼仪 (lǐ yí) - polite and courteous, highlighting the importance of etiquette and respect for others.
6. 和谐 (hé xié) - harmonious and peaceful, emphasizing the value of unity and cooperation.
7. 自强不息 (zì qiáng bù xī) - self-reliant and persevering, stressing the importance of individual effort and determination.
8. 乐观 (lè guān) - optimistic and cheerful, highlighting the value of a positive attitude and outlook.
9. 团队精神 (tuán duī jīng shén) - team-oriented and collaborative, emphasizing the importance of working together towards a common goal.
10. 尊老爱幼 (zūn lǎo ài yòu) - respectful of elders and caring for the young, highlighting the value of intergenerational relationships and social responsibility.
11. 博学 (bó xué) - erudite and knowledgeable, emphasizing the importance of lifelong learning and intellectual pursuits.
12. 诚实 (chéng shí) - honest and trustworthy, stressing the value of integrity and moral character.
13. 聪明 cong ming - bright, intelligent
These proverbial descriptions reflect the cultural values and ideals that are deeply rooted in Chinese society, and are often used to encourage and inspire individuals to strive for excellence and virtue. 辛苦辛苦