Ukraine Drones Strike Engels, Saratov. 义
Russia strikes Ukrainian energy infrastructure & the American Fever Dream
As I have pointed out the chances of ceasefire and truce are nil, though well intentioned people and profiteering opportunists will enjoy wishful thinking till the cold hard facts grab them by the scrotum.
Last day for free eBooks, then the essay:
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THE AMERICAN FEVER DREAM
The USA is undergoing a dual transformation:
(1) A domestic rejection of Roosevelt's New Deal. The United States is undergoing a dual transformation, marked by a domestic shift away from the social-democratic reforms of Roosevelt's New Deal and a foreign policy transformation that appears to be in a state of flux. I'm neither frightened nor disheartened by this, nor am I enthusiastic about it. Social-democratic social insurance reforms and the administrative state arose in part as a result of responses to excesses of capitalism and as a way to co-opt workers into capitalism both to quell domestic dissent in order to have a nice big army for the next great power war. Put bluntly social democratic social insurance is intended to buy off workers to support the regime, undermining radicalism and revolution as well as supporting the state’s foreign policy enforcement.
This shift raises questions about the compatibility of social insurance reforms and the administrative state with the principles of separation of powers, democracy, republicanism, and federalism. None of that could fit into Montesquieu's separation of powers paradigm. However, it can, to some extent at least, fit within democracy, republicanism, federalism.
Yet, a democratic-republic may only be possible within a large federal state (USA), a conderation (Canada) or a confederal international organization (EU). It would be difficult for a smaller polity to be democratic in some aspects and republican in others since there are fewer rulers and would-be rulers among whom to divide power in a small state, such that they check and balance each other, preventing dominance by any one faction. Direct democracy is both more possible and more effective in smaller polities. The smaller the polity is the more democratic it can, and -- i think -- should be.
(2) The USA is also going through a foreign policy transformation. This has at least three variants, and it looks like a fever dream. It's not yet veered into 1. sullen isolationism nor do i think it can or would. Too much money to make with global trade and my rulers are greedy, so very greedy. If isolationism is a non starter then the transformation is considering 2. ultra nationalism or possibly 3. pan americanism, a United States of the Americas, e.g. by expanding the OAS into something like the EU. However, I don't think the US elites/leaders/rulers are sufficiently coherent for that. I also doubt they will be sufficiently vicious for the let's invade/annex/buy Greenland, Canada, and various caribbean insular states options.
So I don't think the USA will be able to distance itself greatly from e.g. WTO, NATO. Those institutions exist for very good reason and have a compelling logic (peace through trade leading to prosperity obviating war and revolution; collective security; deterrence). Populists love to hate international liberalism, and I am not a liberal, but most nationalists, integrists, ultra nationalists — the varieties of coherent right wing foreign policy movements are either unable to articulate a better alternative or even to recognize some of their alternatives have been tried and failed, sometimes catastrophically.
I do not think the foreign policy transformations fit at all within frameworks like separation of powers, checks and balances, democracy, republicanism, federalism, confederalism. Though, the better trend is international institutionalism but it tends to play out as an extension of the administrative state, since the military is the largest and most important bureaucracy and also the one most easily controlled and also the most important.
So I stand by all my ideas about how states can and should get along. I simply see no one coherently arguing let alone effectively for a United States from pole to pole (abandoning one hemisphere to dominate another -- it would be very bloody -- for the other guy). I also see no one coherently arguing for isolationism. Isolationism is perceived, I think correctly, as the cause of two world wars since no counterbalancing coalition could know for sure where the increasingly powerful United States would stand because of neutralism.
So, regarding the US domestic governance, separation of powers, despite fantasies of others, is alive and well. So is federalism. I do not think Trump could institute something like a justicialist or Cuadillo style government. It's simply inconsistent with culture, history, and interests of other rulers.
I red team the destruction of the USA all the time. I reverse engineered the GWOT and am currently inflicting that on Russia. No amount of disintegrative warfare, terrorism, or hyped up conflicts would succeed precisely because of separation of powers, checks and balances, and federalism. To make it still clearer: the founding fathers of the USA even made sure to locate the capitols in backwaters. None of the most important economic centers in the USA are also government centers. So far as I can see, Boston is the only city where the economic and political centers are the same. Everywhere else the capitol is a backwater, including Washington D.C. Final point: I would need to kill, At Least 2000 American governing officals (all the senate, several committes of congress, 50 governors, all or most state senators, a broad swath of general officers of the various military arms, likely most field grade officers too) to overthrow the US government. A more reasonable kill list would have 10 to 100,000 names on it. Even then the result would not be a quick clean palace coup, instead it would result in a very bloody years long civil war that the would be rebels would likely lose not the least because there is no ideology that could justify a second U.S. revolution.
Hopefully the enemies of the republic will tremble. Now I must shambol off to some unknown and unnamed target in "Russia": my targeting list is Long.
What a surprise Russia attacks Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Yeah, 30 day ceasefire is totally gonna fail obvs. https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2025/03/28/7504907/
Boat Bingo Beschlagnahmung! https://www.worldecr.com/news/germany-seizes-russian-shadow-fleet-tanker-with-e40m-cargo/ Sag mal “Danke”.
Ukrainian Drones hit Engels https://24tv.ua/ru/jengels-pod-atakoj-bpla-vzryvy-gorode-razdavalis-28-marta-novosti_n2786240 and Saratov again
Did I mention? Don’t hold your breath waiting for a ceasefire. Trump will try to impose peace, fail (we are here now) and then Putin will stab Trump in the back. And then what? )
https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2025/03/28/putin-discusses-temporary-administration-running-ukraine-and-trumps-greenland-ambitions-what-to-know/ In other words Putin imagines replacing the Zelenskiy government. Like I said, we are now in the “fail” phase.