“Wars and rumours of wars”
China, the USA, and I, alike agree that the wars should not expand or extend. It is common-sense that even if we disagree about how the wars ought be prosecuted we would like the killing to stop as soon as possible. I expect the Israeli government will try, and succeed, at destroying Hamas, and will kill many Palestinian civilians along the way. Horrible, but you wanted truth and accurate prediction, not stufffed puppies, unicorns and other cute lies. I do not expect the wars to expand. However, I know war termination is ever difficult and tough to predict or foresee because of the cognitive biases of “escalation of commitment”, the “sunk costs fallacy”, not to mention wishful thinking, which is why I do not deal in pious lies or cute bullshit. China and the USA are mutually constrained, face common objectives, and thus the paths to peace are optimal or rather nearly so. If you wish to see the computer simulations, haha, no.
Carrots:
Remember when I predicted more air-drop of aid to Jordan’s field hospital in Gaza?
Jordanian Air Force Airdrops Aid into Gaza | Israel Defense
Jordania usa paracaídas dirigidos por GPS para mandar ayuda a Gaza (theobjective.com)
Much more is necessary. Israel-Palestine war: 'If we are not bombed to death we are going to die of starvation' | Middle East Eye
Jordan dispatches wheat, grain aid to West Bank to alleviate humanitarian crisis | Jordan Times
Someday I should write an essay or small book on encirclement chess 围棋. If someone wants to fund a small book on Stalingrad, Berlin, Dien Bien Phu, Khe Sanh, and Gaza I am open to reasonable offers,including simulations methodologies to predict similar future conflict points.
China has a sweeping vision to reshape the world – and countries are listening | CNN
Sticks:
Israel-eliminates-130-hamas-tunnels-in-gaza-as-airstrike-kills-hamas-weapons-maker
Memory:
Remember when I said, and I quote “Row the boat home”?
Predictions:
Prediction: Netanyahu will resign, or be forced to resign, AFTER the war.
Trump will be destroyed legally and politically.
Ukrainian Marines Are Advancing—And Expanding Their Dnipro Bridgehead (forbes.com)
Prediction: China will stab Russia in the back. How hard and how often and when are open questions!
Spoiler: Russia doesn’t “accidentally” hit anything ever.
Here we see China trying to figure out how to eat Russia’s lunch, while also eating America’s lunch! Optimistic but entirely unlikely.
CHINA, CHINA, CHINA!
Prediction: Improved US-China anti-narcotics cooperation. Singapore likely to play key intermediary roles.
Ex Foreign Minister Qin Gang, ousted for his blabby xiao san and not being a good baby daddy now rumoured to be guilty of espionage. It’s not that he had a mistress, but his mistress was a blabby idiot and then theres the question of how well he was or was not doing his parental duties. If he were guilty of espionage he would be in jail or worse.
The global constraints to Chinese growth (ft.com)
This is wrong, but shows how out-to-lunch my enemies are.
Hillary Clinton appears to be making a come-back.
I can’t give you a perfect victory, but can give you a less bloody victory. This ends with Russia ejected from ALL of Ukraine, with Putin dead or in the docket for war crimes, and could easily end with the “Russian” Federation disaggregated into its constituent occupied nations and portions of what used to be “Russia” under de facto or even de jure Chinese control. Stabbing Russia in the back is what China ought do, hard, and often.
Tings Chak is very interesting and effective, her origin story is immigrant rights activism in Canada, goes on to get pissed off at anti-China misapprehensions, struggles for progressive outcomes in service of an ideology under fundamental tensions and stress. She is an example of how you can do good thing despite questionable theories. Worth watching critically.
By the way I bet dollars to donuts Chak HATES drugs because they kill the poor. So…
LEARN CHINESE!
As nothing other than the reincarnation of Kinnikos I plead guilty of course!
“Alternative parenting” subtext: sad lonely “ugly duckling” boy in a family of chicks… guess why? 为小三。。。
I am the opposite of classical bourgeois but I recognize and respect good effective scholarship and you lot might like him.
(1) 今天的帅属于巴黎铁塔下的两抹中国红!!!#舞今中外 - YouTube
Germany pledges to make its military 'the backbone of defence in Europe' | Reuters