女人标枪投掷比赛
SYNOPSIS: Recent big news was: 1) Russian rocket hits Poland by error, Ukraine got blamed, but WW3 didn’t start. 2) Jiang Zemin died, he was already long retired, his political faction sidelined 3) Protests in China against SARS II Wuhan Virus Lockdowns, which the regime has quelled without bloodshed 4) Ongoing protests in Iran, hundreds of dead protestors. 5) Destruction of Ukrainian energy infrastructure (power plants and transmission stations) – because the Russians can’t hit moving targets or even military targets. 6) No one seems to have had an “accident” in Moscow recently, though sabotage and guerilla war continues in occupied Donbas and even Russia itself.
Winter is Coming!
Practice your oral English with Strategy Talk
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PREDICTIONS:
Predictions remain as they were:
UKRAINE 1) Ukraine will win 2) by next Spring or Summer at latest 3) Unless Putin’s own people “remove” Putin, one way or other.
RUSSIA: Putin will wind up dead or in the docket for war crimes.
CHINA: Will (as in has) suppressed dissent and will not completely decouple from Euro-American economies; will try to integrate itself further with ASEAN and to advance Belt and Road Initiative. Xi Jinping is going nowhere. China will continue to arms race, provoking an American and then European reaction. This is unfortunate, but I can’t dissuade the PRC or CCP from its armaments policies. China will continue to build more weapons, and this will cause others to do the same.
TURKEY AND CHINA will wind up rivals in the ex USSR Turkic states though its likely Mongolia and North Korea will be uncontested and become exclusively Chinese client states, unable to play China and Russia off against each other. China has no down side or risk or damage from the Russian war in Ukraine. This is where diplomacy might be applied the only space for it. Russia and Ukraine will not negotiate or surrender until one or the other is completely defeated; but China may be able to persuade Russia to withdraw.
China’s best case scenario? A Neo-Mongol empire with Iran and India as part of the new golden horde. Unlikely but not entirely impossible, Russia might end up a mere Chinese client state.
好好学习天天向上!
Word of the day
Die Sprengung – Explosion; la Demolition – l’Explosion – vzriv – 爆发
Just like German -ung words are always feminine so also are French -tion words always feminine. English and Chinese don’t have grammatical gender. I don’t know if vzriv is masculine, feminine, or neuter in slavic languages.
ENGLISH
Work on your English oral comprehension (and give your strained eyes a rest) with
https://www.thedailybeast.com/explosive-russian-leak-of-presidential-lockdown-order-roils-kremlin
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/23/russia-ukraine-war-ammo-lloyd-austin
NATO Nations Grow More Receptive to U.S. Pleas to Confront China https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/30/world/europe/nato-china-biden.html
US and China in first South China Sea encounter since Xi-Biden meeting https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/29/asia/us-navy-freedom-of-navigation-south-china-sea-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
The New Geopolitics of Global Finance https://www.cfr.org/blog/new-geopolitics-global-finance
US and China in first South China Sea encounter since Xi-Biden meeting https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/29/asia/us-navy-freedom-of-navigation-south-china-sea-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-us-china-competition-is-heating-up-in-the-pacific/2022/11/29/1b0149dc-7018-11ed-867c-8ec695e4afcd_story.html
China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem (Jein...)
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-united-states/?tpcc=recirc_trending062921
China wachst wird aber langsamer mMn.
Chinese protests quelled without war or bloodshed
Spoiler: Crimea is a semi-desert, the water is sourced from Ukraine, lack of water will doom any defense of cCrimea
Russia largely abandons battalion tactical groups in Ukraine as weaknesses revealed
The units have played a major part in Moscow's military doctrine for the last ten years but 'has proven unsuccessful' in Ukraine
29 November 2022 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/29/russia-largely-abandons-battalion-tactical-groups-ukraine-weaknesses/
FRANCE
Guerre en Ukraine : Les sanctions commencent à peser lourdement sur l’économie russe
Pratiquer votre Francais oral! Practice your oral french because my grammar is mdr!
DEUTSCH
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/einwanderungspolitik-kanada-101.html
https://www.dw.com/de/holodomor-überlebende-ich-will-den-sieg-der-ukraine-noch-erleben/a-63926980
https://www.tagesschau.de/supercomputer-stuttgart-101.html
RU
Культура 29 ноября 2022 15:22
Народная милиция рассказала о колоссальных потерях среди польских наемников в ЛНР
Тайвань выбрал Китай https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5692669
(this is overstated: KMT won local elections, Tsai resigned as head of her party the 国民党)
中国
中俄合作|中俄央行研新結算系統 擺脫依賴SWIFT
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